Volcanic Winter
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Everything posted by Volcanic Winter
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Iceland in winter is awesome!! https://imgur.com/a/NcMT77O We did four nights in Reykjavik to capture the Xmas vibes then moved out to the country where it became a total winter wonderland. At one point we had like 36 hours of steady light to moderate snowfall without any substantial wind (somewhat rare) - absolutely perfect conditions! About 18-28 degrees out there for most of the trip. -
Back from Iceland guys, was absolutely incredible… had about 36 hours of light - moderate snowfall when we went deeper in away from the coast. Winter wonderland, around 18-28 degrees the whole time. I’ll get some pics up in the banter thread. Also, 6.3 for a low overnight at my house without snowcover - that’s seriously impressive. That beats the most recent cold wave around the holiday a couple years back by two full degrees here. Edit: Link to pics https://imgur.com/a/NcMT77O
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I know this is silly, but I’m absolutely loving this. I had resigned myself for a continuation of what we had in November, and with our tendency to only have a couple day brief cooldown followed by more warmth - this is pretty incredible. Good exposure to the temps we’ll be having in Iceland this time of year in about ten days, especially when we go towards the coastal interior. Right now tracking spots we’ll be staying in going down to 5 degrees - won’t be quite that cold I don’t think when we get there but it’s possible! To kick off December and Christmas season with some real winter weather is just amazing to me and feels like a precious commodity anymore with the regime we’ve been under.
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I just did a double take checking my temps. On the western edge of Toms River, my nighttime lows are always cold in my location and on good radiative cooling nights I’m not far off some spots in north Jersey. But I’m seeing daytime highs in the 30’s to start December, potentially? Wild.
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God I love -EPO.
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I’ll take it
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Cool halo around the moon tonight.
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She’ll do. My yard looks like if I flicked a tree or plant it would crumble to ash and blow away in the wind. I’m near the cutoff to the zone of the worst drought stage in the area. We only got like .15 “ of rain the other day, basically nothing against the kind of deficit we’re running.
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I’d really love to ditch the trough in the west look every time we happen to have a trough here, add that to the southeast ridge as something that’s given me serious weather trauma the past couple years. Really hoping to have a wintry Iceland trip in December, but they’ve been having some incredible warmth trapped under a major ridge. Some of the cams in the north are completely devoid of snow; when we toured the north in Nov 2022 it was like being in arctic tundra (everything I’ve ever wanted lol).
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32 here
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Crazy, I would’ve figured your area would’ve hit freezing already too. I’ve been down to 29-31 a few nights already. Pine Barrens gonna radiate I guess.
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69.6. Just a tad above average.
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This is pretty insane. 64f at 12am.
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With respect to the AMOC, we just don’t know enough yet regarding the effects of a switch to the slower, more southerly configuration in the modern interstadial climate. We know what happened during the Younger Dryas in terms of climate shifts, but things are different today. It’s very much a “pick your source” thing right now. There are good papers showing a 1-2C drop along the US East Coast and as much as 5-6C drop up in Scandinavia, and there are papers that confine the cooling to Scandinavia and broil the East Coast. There are new papers from 2023/24 showing a “restructured” northern branch of the AMOC (“shutdown”) is possible as early as a few years to a couple decades, with increasing likelihood from then on. We don’t know enough yet, but we’re learning fast. Would be foolhardy to assume A) it won’t happen anytime soon and B - precisely what the effects will or will not be. Models often significantly under or overestimate various factors as we see on a weekly basis here with just basic forecasting.
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Already at 30 this evening. Been dropping pretty fast tonight.
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Maybe when the PDO and AMO flip? Thinking our best chances may be the back end of this decade, especially if the PDO begins to flip in the next two years or so as I’ve seen some suggestion of. No way of knowing yet though, of course. I think we need to see that intense marine heatwave off Japan calm down first. In hindsight I’m trying to stay positive that I’ve been relatively lucky so far this decade given how abysmal things have been. Eked out more snow than Boston last year, had an epic storm in 2022 here, and 2021 was pretty great even if not the best down at my house.
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Crazy. Do you think there will be a flip in December before January / Feb likely goes very warm again?
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In the correct season, sure. I enjoy fall for the cool, beautiful time of year that it’s supposed to be. We shouldn’t be this warm - sustained - heading into Nov. A day or two, or three, - I’ll give you. It’s a given anyway these days
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84 here.
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Still bone dry down here. Enjoy the raindrops! What a crazy fall. Low for the month: 29.3 High: 83.5 Rain: Zero.zerozero Wild!
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I hit 35 this morning twice it looks like, definitely a bit below our forecast low as well. Our leaves down here went pretty much from green to red and then down, and everything is starting to look a bit grey.
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This has been an interesting fall progression so far with some early chills leading to early leaf changes, before flipping back to the endless summer pattern that’s so common anymore. I’m really curious if we can manage a cold Dec (cool?) even if the whole of DJF is mild to warm. If talking preferences I tend to prefer a front loaded winter anyway. Nothing beats a seasonal holiday season.
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I suppose if snow learns to form at 40f, we’re set. Then we’ll get 20 inches this winter instead of 5-10. Score!
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81. Looks like a low of only 49 around 7am.
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https://www.nasa.gov/earth/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprecedented-amount-of-water-into-stratosphere/ Take a look at this article, it touches on various factors of what HTHH was extremely unique. There is no direct analogue in historic times, and an eruption with water vapor was the constituent pollutant will not exactly leave major sulfate and tephra deposits in Greenland / Antarctic ice cores, so they would be difficult to detect in the recent geologic past. We know HTHH had a similar event of a similar scale about a thousand years ago from analysis of the caldera itself. Tofua is another similar system with a similar magma composition , but the conduit and caldera is much more established on land and wouldn’t necessarily erupt the same way were it to have another climactic event. It’s really the combination of specifics that made HTHH unique, especially the intensity. Almost VEI 6 level of erupted volume mainly erupted within two hours… that’s absolutely extreme. It’s also the intensity of the main blast itself, a true natural nuke. It generated a meteo tsunami and pressure wave not seen since Krakatau, which as I mentioned isn’t a perfect analogue as it leaned much closer toward a magma rich highly sulfurous eruption. Many geologists / volcanologists I follow discussed in the aftermath how this would further the field. Very likely we’re blind to analogue events in the geologic record for some of the reasons I touched on, which means we don’t really know the recurrence. Also volcanic winter is something of a misnomer anyway. Usually summer temps are most impacted, such as “the year Without a summer” after Tambora. Obviously a volcanic disturbed winter isn’t a warm one, but the largest departures are often in the summer. Lot of ground to cover to give a satisfactory answer but I hope at least I was able to give you something.
