Jump to content

Volcanic Winter

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,332

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Volcanic Winter

  1. Volcanic Winter
    Edit: Pretend I made a Q instead of an O. Thx
  2. Volcanic Winter
    I would be seeing you in the summer complaining about how much I hate the blinding sun and heat, and how much I crave the winter cold and darkness. Be honest, how many meds would I be leaving your office with?
  3. Volcanic Winter
    I feel bad if anything for the lower MA crew. They really haven’t had a significant snowfall since 2016? That’s what I was hearing, but I’m not very familiar with their snowfall stats. Certainly hasn’t been great the past few years but Jan 2018, Feb 2021, and Jan 2022 were all good enough to keep me from the ledge. I’d probably be over it if I hadn’t snowed appreciably since 2016. The NE crew are a whacky bunch of strong personalities mixing, I genuinely think they’re hilarious. I don’t like when anything devolves into petty insults and fighting, but in general their bickering makes me laugh. Hey most of us are here for the same thing with various levels of actual meteorological interest. Those that contribute to prognostication should always be able to state their opinions and perspectives without being mocked for it. I’ve seen a lot of that this year and I think it’s uncalled for, though less on this forum than others thankfully. Disagreement and debate is a key part of scientific discussion.
  4. Volcanic Winter
    Isn’t that what happened in 2015-16? Didn’t the wave stall in one of the right side phases at high amplitude? I don’t really have a good grasp on MJO tendencies between Niña/Niño, just seems like a continuation of the MJO wanting to hang out and amplify in phases that can be counterproductive for us.
  5. Volcanic Winter
    If only 1/29 were a little more NW. I could’ve had what LI had (think some spots were over 20 inches, I had 16), and the immediate metro would’ve done a lot better. What I remember most fondly of that storm was the cold, 22F at the peak. Cold powder. Real winter stuff. Strong storm, it’s just a shame it only scraped the area.
  6. Volcanic Winter
    We’re definitely due a region wide all snow event. I don’t mean a HECS, but just something with cold air in place and favorable storm dynamics. Was even thinking something like that Jan 8-9 event from 2022 that pretty much gave the entire metro 5+ with no mixing that I recall (even here was powder all the way). And then hey, let’s go from there. HECS are amazing but I’m the guy that likes multiple events with a recurring winter vibe instead of one and done + torch. Hopefully today’s event was the building block.
  7. Volcanic Winter
    Yeah, I like the constant wave activity. Eventually we’ll connect on a broader hit. Happy the northern crew is doing well! I held the rain down here as long as I could .
  8. Volcanic Winter
    How have the various ensembles been performing with respect to the broader patterns so far? What’s been the most accurate?
  9. Volcanic Winter
    Happy you saw some flakes man, it’s been a torrent of rain down here. My wife is on the phone with her parents in Milltown and they have a decent amount considering. Wasn’t expecting anything really for them or we could’ve gone up for dinner!
  10. Volcanic Winter
    23 here right now. Would be a perfect winter evening just prior to a solid snowstorm. One day. Keep the faith gentlemen, we have a ways to go. And congrats and good luck to the northern crew that’s going to get something from this. Enjoy it!
  11. Volcanic Winter
    I do agree we need more time to evaluate, and I do think we sometimes draw conclusions prematurely without enough data to be more definitive. It’s difficult to separate changing climatology / warming (in a year to year sense I mean) from natural variance anyway, though I believe strongly this post 2016 period is offering clues. I do want to add that the majority of what Bluewave does is retrospective analysis without much long range forecasting. He’s not predicting so much as evaluating recent recurrent failure modes and recognizing similar warning signs in the short range.
  12. Volcanic Winter
    With respect Easton, there’s more to the area’s winter climatology than snowfall in a vacuum. Compare the temperature trends vs earlier snowless periods, we were likely colder and drier with less frequent, less amplified, and less juiced storms dropping less snow in general. It seems like the equation is different now with temperature becoming an increasingly large inhibitor to the area’s snowfall since 2016. Add back in any decadal variance such as pac cycles and IMHO that gives this the potential to be more severe than past droughts. Doesn’t mean there weren’t warm and wet low snow years back then either, of course those always existed. It’s more about frequency and intensity IMO. All IMHO.
  13. Volcanic Winter
    Easier to see shifts in the storm when you’re tracking the rain snow line over several dozen miles. Think about it, though I definitely understand the sentiment lol.
  14. Volcanic Winter
    Also hit 22 this AM, tied for my coldest of the season. This is basically my average low right now, and because we get so normalized to the increasing minimums it feels almost like anomalous cold.
  15. Volcanic Winter
    GFS output gets 4'' down to even me, that's a discard for now. I guess optimistically it's nice to still see some favorable wobbles, but yeah.
  16. Volcanic Winter
    I mean, don't forget how insanely crowded NJ -> NYC / HV / LI -> SW CT is. Any plowable snowstorm is a big deal which requires the activation of a lot of resources to keep the area functioning. Of course we're used to snow up here unlike the south or something, but this region is still enormously overcrowded which makes any snowfall a bigger deal than it would be in a less populated area. The broader DC to BOS corridor is just stupidly dense with people. So I agree that sometimes the media really overhypes or bites too early on potential snow events, but they also genuinely are a very big deal in this area (especially once we're talking significant snowfall, 6+ inches, which was at least semi-plausible going back a couple days).
  17. Volcanic Winter
    Thank you, Tip. I follow you on the NE boards and you're honestly one of my favorite posters. I appreciate your musings and thoughts about things and find you extremely informative. Good luck to you as well (not sure exactly where in NE you're located, but hopefully you're seeing something from this)!
  18. Volcanic Winter
    I'm cooked here in northern Ocean Co, but I'm so excited most of you will hopefully, probably see something respectable out of this. Reel it in! Just stinks with all the QPF that will be flying over my head, but what can you do. The airmass is so extremely marginal when the storm approaches the low would have to be much further east for me a chance, so I'll consider it my penance for doing better than most in 1/29 a couple years ago! Regardless, this has been such a fun week having this to follow & as always you guys kill the analysis. Pleasure to read through.
  19. Volcanic Winter
    Probably a win if it gets more people in the game and is a plausible outcome. Take it and set the table for later in the month / Feb, right? We’ll see where things go overnight and tomorrow.
  20. Volcanic Winter
    I think there’s a middle ground that acknowledges unfavorable shifts without throwing in the towel. There’s still time for more favorable corrections but I think we’d like to see them overnight into tomorrow to know a better outcome may still be on the table.
  21. Volcanic Winter
    It really is uncanny how often that tends to correct stronger, as you’ve always discussed.
  22. Volcanic Winter
    Yep, unfortunate shifts / changes right now, important to see how much they “lock in” tonight into tomorrow. Once that consistency is showing up is when I’d start to think that’s approaching the correct solution (always with some last minute variation of course).
  23. Volcanic Winter
    Chuck had valid concerns, with that said it’s still early in this game. Hoping things trend back the other direction, but IMHO it’s important not to belittle perspectives that don’t align with desire. Always better to weigh all input even if you disagree. Chuck is a smart guy. Here’s to hoping things start shifting back to colder solutions while we’re still in the period that they (shifts) can be expected. Overnight -> tomorrow will be telling, IMHO.
  24. Volcanic Winter
    Much of that is due to track with this, though, correct? Were that low 40 miles east it would be closer to snow up and down east of 95? Seems like that demarcation often comes down to positioning especially with marginal air.
  25. Volcanic Winter
    I agree with the need for objectivity and controlling of one’s emotions, this is a science discussion forum and too easily I see people jump down other’s throats for stating an opinion that runs contrary to their own desires, even if valid and supportable. That I genuinely dislike a lot, and I’m not just talking about our subforum here. I read all three major east forums. With that said, MJO is a weenie and lives for this stuff. I can’t and don’t fault him for that, it’s usually innocuous IMO. He can lash out at times but so do others, idk. We’re all here because we love weather and love snow. I enjoy his enthusiasm at times. I’m a true weenie too, I live for winter weather. I travel for winter weather, my wife and I spend our precious vacation time and money going to hike in cold places during the winter, the opposite of many. But I do try to keep my emotions checked at the door, because I respect this forum as a place for rational scientific debate and discussion. With that said, nobody’s perfect. I could just do without the personal attacks / mocking I see on AWX from time to time. In all cases, it’s uncalled for. Edit: And I’m not talking about the stuff that’s obviously just meant to be taken in jest and isn’t mean spirited.
×
×
  • Create New...