Volcanic Winter

Another eruption near the town of Grindavik, unfortunately this fissure popped up considerably closer to the town than the previous one. https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/iceland/reykjanes-peninsula/current-activity.html https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3tNTObamic

Over in Milltown at the in-laws, cooling down for sure and still pretty nice wind gusts coming through. Excited for our modest arctic week considering where we’ve been for so long. Saying “I can’t wait for some snow this week” feels presumptive and desperate, so I’ll stop myself. But fingers crossed.

Thanks, yeah my experience could be amplified as we’re outdoors the majority of our time there. So you really feel the conditions.

I’d take an inch and have that stick around a bit on the grass. Call it a mental health bandaid. I think we see flakes Tues, it’s just between literally a couple flakes and 1-2 inches. We’ll see what happens. @snowman19 had a nice read on things WRT where the models are at right now with the GFS folding to the Euro today.

Coldest temps here I’ve experienced are around zero, but the coldest I’ve ever felt was when we went to northern Iceland last winter and caught the tail end of a colder period. At night it was like 10-15 degrees but with 40 mile per hour wind. I’ve never experienced anything like that, you needed beefy insulation and a serious shell to mute that wind or you would turn into an iceblock. It’s well known how mild Iceland is for its latitude, and indeed it is relatively speaking. But the wind is the great equalizer there as it can absolutely ferocious and unrelenting. Despite, sections of the north do have a tundra climate which is quite cool to experience. The wind makes an absolutely enormous difference with this stuff though for sure. -10F is one thing, but -10 with any real wind would be scary. Can’t imagine colder than that. @MJO812 Go with your SO to Iceland in Nov or Dec and get up to Akureyri. See the sights around there (carefully). You’ll be in your glory.

Bruh I bought a WRX in 2019 because I spent the better part of the 2010’s risking my life in my 6 speed RWD 128i on my 60 mile commute west of NYC. Figured, I’m getting older let me finally be responsible. I used to borrow my dad’s truck or I’d probably be dead, but I didn’t always have it. Oh, and where I work would be open in the apocalypse, no such thing as a snow day, ever. Got my WRX and a set of snow tires (comes with summers only - genius…) and I’ve needed them for precisely two months since I got all that. So it’s probably alL my fault anyway lol.

Rediscovered one of my favorite bands from when I was growing up, one of NJ’s finest IMO (they’re from Middletown). Symphony X, some of the best prog metal out there and their guitarist is one of the best to ever do it IMO.

Not to derail but Canada Goose is an overpriced fashion brand. They’re very warm but also obscenely expensive. Can get a better made down jacket that’s as warm or warmer from Feathered Friends for a fraction. I’d take Arcteryx over CG too, or Patagonia. Expensive still, but more technically competent than CG’s offerings. Just IMHO. We went into a CG boutique in Reykjavik this November and the price for their parkas were absolutely laughable, was like $2500 for the women’s warmer variant.

I do winter hiking and you would legitimately need expedition down parkas to be out in that, like Everest style down suits. I have a very heavy 240g fill weight down jacket suitable for below zero temps but even layered with that it would be too cold, and this is a substantially warmer parka than what most people have. Like you can’t even wear it around freezing you’ll sweat your ass off. I’m sure living in Canada most are well prepared I’m just saying that is most certainly “nuts” cold.

Of course, we’re gonna need the cutter to clear first. Was sort of asking based on current synoptics as opposed to OP snow maps which don’t tell us much yet.

Based on current model guidance, do I have a chance for some snow down here in northern Ocean (about 8-10 miles inland)? I have that pang of doubt that the coast will rain but with a much further south and east mix zone / cutoff than the last storm, which of course will be good for NYC. But my anxiety is slowly ratcheting up. The theme of “the coast rains” has been strong this season, though I think NYC latitude will do better this time (which is good). Also thinking Middlesex and north should be solid.

I just want to offer that while I agree we don’t want that for snow chances which is what the majority of us care about, just for climo purposes it’s very notable how that *hasn’t* been happening as well as what’s causing that. We should be seeing perturbations of the vortex down our ways occasionally no? Regardless of if it’s good or bad for snow chances is all I mean.

Didn’t the GFS show 1/29/22 going way OOS consistently until like 24 hours prior to the start of snowfall? I distinctly remember that for some reason and it kept people on edge. And I think it actually had the storm first before the Euro like ten days out, then lost it. I have saved graphics somewhere from all the steps along the way, was a very fun event to track. I remember the phase was very up in the air and inconsistent between model runs, and we were all glued to that in particular.

I’m going to wait to get excited until after the next cutter of doom passes and the models continue to hold a decent look for this. Regardless, nice to see the models able to form this out of the ether once again.

Wow, genuinely don’t recall that one. Beautiful precipitation band though, VA to Maine simultaneously…

Enough to cause more problematic warmth you think, or just keep things active? Hard to know at this point I’m assuming?

Small world! I live at the TR / Manchester border and work up in Union Co. Grew up in Middlesex / Monmouth.

I grew up in NJ in the 2000’s and all I know is snow, it was something we saw almost every winter and never felt rare. Of course we’re talking one of the best eras ever for big snow, and my first real snow memory was 1996. Then as a young adult living in my first apartment with my then girlfriend / now wife, we had Boxing Day and got destroyed, through all the great early / mid 2010 years to 2016. Since then I’ve only seen a handful of good events, maybe a little more than some of you guys but by no means has it been good. My perspective is very skewed by the era I grew up in, which sucks for me now. But that doesn’t change how decadal warming is going to begin eroding snow climo for the whole area, if it hasn’t to an extent already (IMHO it has). Good patterns and deep cold will be needed to secure results and more marginal setups will be more likely to fail, this has been the case even in coastal SNE. With that said, I do think we’ll see some big years yet when everything goes right. It didn’t just completely switch off after 2016, we just have decadal warming on top of unfavorable decadal natural variation. Of course I want snow IMBY but I’ll be very excited if the DC metro gets crushed. I’m pulling for it, it’s needed.

Press the cold, get more people in the game, and that’s a big win IMO. Don’t care how much or how little. Getting some flakes would be nice.

We had that epic Dec block last year not work out for us. We can’t repeat the sins of the past this year. This one has to produce. Looking at everything, we definitely have a chance. Looks like (of course, as per usual anymore) quite a complicated setup though with many moving parts. The Euro has a phase right which is why the result looked good?

What are your thoughts on Feb? Originally IIRC you thought Feb had a chance at being pretty decent, any other thoughts on that?

Agree. It’s a holistic, exhaustive way of evaluating everything into a workable forecast. Idc if @40/70 Benchmarkis “wrong” or “right” in terms of verification, he puts a ton of work into it and follows a clearly identifiable overcurrent of logic. Works for me, I appreciate it. If nothing else it works as an outstanding overview of the parameters leading into the winter season. And for someone like me who lacks the depth of meteorological knowledge that many of you have, it’s a great learning tool (which is what I’m here for…).

23 for a low, currently 40. Let the rain begin .

The Feb 1 storm? I had 5 inches at home and 18 at work. Doesn’t matter, had snow, would do again.

At least there’s a wave or two to track right now that aren’t guaranteed Lakes cutters. At this point, I’ll take it.