Volcanic Winter

So I have a decent amount I could say about Yellowstone. It’s true that statistically it’s very slightly overdue for its next large caldera forming episode. It’s not true that there’s any major significance to that with respect to current US risk. First of all Yellowstone actually last erupted properly 70kya in a massive rhyolitic effusive eruption that was something like 100 cubic kilometers of thick rhyolite lava flows. Massive on a scale well beyond anything in historic times, Laki was 15 cubic kilometers remember of basaltic lava. Rhyolite is like volcanic peanut butter to basalt’s warmed up honey. So it had a pretty substantial eruption not too long ago that is not often mentioned or discussed in the context of it being overdue. I would imagine some of the magma that would be contributing toward the next supereruption was released in this event and may have delayed the next one by some degree, though this specifically is just logical speculation on my part. These types of massive volcanoes go off when they’re ready and not before, regardless of the statistics of their previous eruptions. Recent studies determined Yellowstone is not currently thought to possess a melt fraction (percent of magma body that is molten and in an eruptible state) that would support a supereruption right now. But that can change, right? The last Yellowstone supereruption is now known to have been triggered by two massive basaltic intrusions of hot, juvenile magma very deep underground. These two pulses took place across several decades, and should they occur to they would be imminently noticeable / detectable. There would be massive inflation within the caldera and a whole continuous swarm of deep volcanic quakes, along with periods of tremor represented magma on the move. The entire caldera would be very clearly alive, instead of its current very sleepy state. We would know. It would be unmistakably “awake.” That injection of hot basalt would remelt some of the magma chamber and creative an enormous instability that leads to a blowout. In earnest, Yellowstone is not even in the top tier of volcanoes I think are most likely or most capable of causing human harm in the near future. Ioto / Iwo Jima is an under the radar choice, a giant pimple in the ocean under Japan that is growing at an alarming rate, some of the fastest uplift known at a volcanic system - for centuries. Its last caldera eruption was very large and would’ve sent a catastrophic tsunami all over the Pacific. It’s very capable of doing that again and probably will in the not too distant future. You can actually see the striations in the island where the sea level line was mere decades ago, going all the way back for centuries. It doesn’t even have the same topography as when it was landed on during WWII. Way scarier than Yellowstone right now IMO. But Yellowstone captures the hearts of Americans and is guaranteed to get clicks, so it’s frequently pushed as a catastrophe waiting to happen. Could be 1,000 years, 10,000, or 500,000 before the next supereruption. All are way beyond immediate worry. It’s almost certainly not happening tomorrow, near 0% chance. When you start hearing about unprecedented uplift, an endless intense quake swarm at depth, and signs of unmistakable unrest that continue for years unabated, then we have something to worry about.

@LibertyBell(think you’ll like this) Apparently the Akahoya eruption in Japan is now regarded as the largest of the Holocene. This was always known as a VEI 7, but it was recently revised all the way up to potentially over 400 cubic kilometers of erupted volume. For reference that’s getting close to half the size of the last Yellowstone supereruption! Not too shabby for only several thousand years ago. More than double Tambora’s size, though it’s a different eruption style (recurrent caldera system vs large stratovolcano suffering a catastrophic drainout). These types of recurrent calderas are more prone to the massive VEI 7 - 8 eruptions, like Yellowstone, Valles Caldera, Clear Lake, & Campi Flegrei. Japan is also a hotbed of large scale and intense volcanism due to a unique geologic setting with oddly clashing plates. https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/volcanos/underwater-volcano-eruption-7300-years-ago-is-the-largest-in-recorded-history I just want to note in general that constraining tephra-fall isopachs accurately and actually computing a semi accurate total erupted volume for some of these eruptions is a monumentally difficult task. Lots of literature actually cites different sizes for many of the same eruptions, and the figures are often in flux. It wasn’t long ago Toba was estimated all the way up to as large as 5000 cubic kilometers which is frankly mind boggling. I have the opinion that many historic eruptions were actually a bit bigger than the figures we use to describe them today which tend to be more conservative. There are some absolute monsters in the semi recent past, events that would catastrophically rattle modern humanity were they to happen today. Once you get into the VEI 6 space, a couple times larger than Pinatubo (closer to Krakatau and Novarupta), you get into eruptions that are just unthinkably large and would be absolutely wild for us to experience in real time in the cell phone age.

@bluewave, seriously man - thank you for everything that you do here. You’re an absolute data guru and what you post is so fascinating, also the way you contextualize things. I’ve learned so much from you. @donsutherland1too! You guys rock!

What’s up with that dew point crash on the sounding? That represents super dry air there around 600mb? I comprehend the gist well enough (change of air dynamics with altitude) but generally aren’t great at reading these.

That was one of my favorite recent storms, gave me about 18 inches or so here in Toms River (I’m west of the parkway, very close to the Manchester border). But I do agree if that one were a bit better positioned that could’ve been an absolute blockbuster for all. I feel the same about 1/29/22; that storm had incredible dynamics and was cold! 22F at the time of peak snowfall early that morning, it was absolutely glorious.

Laki was extremely deadly to the population of Iceland, and their livestock. And the cloud of sulfur hanging in the troposphere drifted over to Europe by way of the UK and did a lot of damage to agricultural workers. 120 Tg’s of sulfur was outputted by that event (compared to 20 for Pinatubo). Plausibly only a fraction of that made it beyond the tropopause and caused a volcanic winter, imagine if it all did… Hekla also releases fluorine when it erupts, IIRC.

It’s unlikely as Holuhraun didn’t have 2km high lava fountains / overall explosive components that Laki had, and the enormous thermal updrafts Laki generated are probably the reason why it was even able to impact the climate. 99% of effusive events do not and are nowhere near the peak intensity of Laki, Holuhraun included. Laki was an exceedingly rare exception and also just a very unique volcanic event in general.

@LibertyBell Here’s a cool vid of the Holuhraun eruption. This vid is just one snapshot of one phase of the event. This went on for months at an enormously high effusion rate. 1.5 cubic kilometers of basaltic magma, total volume.

Laki is just a name for the crater row generated by the eruption (Lakagigur, and the Icelandic name for the event is Skaftareldar, the Fires of the Skaftar river), the parent volcano was Grimsvotn which last erupted to VEI 4 level in 2011. These mega rift drainout eruptions are exceedingly rare, only three exist of Laki or greater size in the entire Holocene and two were 800 years apart (Eldgjà to Laki). Grimsvotn doesn’t have the magma right now to do it again, it was likely very deep long dormant storage getting shaken up and making a break for the surface in a truly massive rift event. There actually was a large rift eruption in 2014 (Holuhruan, from the Bardarbunga volcano within the Vatnajokull icecap, next to Grimsvotn). It was about 15x smaller than Laki and nowhere near as gaseous, but still tremendously large to have actively lived through. Events of that size are only once every several hundred years going by Icelandic eruptive history. Holuhraun however was massively larger than the Fagradalsfjall or Grindavik eruptions all put together since 2020. Trying to impart a sense of scale, Laki was beyond comprehension. The Tambora of effusive events. A genuine lava flood, or miniature flood basalt (probably the most analogous event in recorded history to one of the ancient Mesozoic flood basalt eruptions despite being thousands of times smaller).

Yeah, we’re all incredibly lucky as snow lovers to have lived through that period, whether we recognized it at the time or otherwise. I do believe that was the intersection of favorable decadal variability and a “boon” from warming that hadn’t progressed to the point of hurting enough to offset things just yet. As I alluded to above, I hope when ‘built in’ favorability swings back around, we’re still able to capitalize on it. It’s extremely debatable and I’m not suggesting I have the answers, merely hoping. One more epic winter would go down nicely for all of us after the 2016 to present period (which of course wasn’t terrible all the time, thankfully - but it has been significantly warmer in the winter since, the temperature stats on recent winters have been extremely jarring to say the least, and we’re not talking anything theoretical here just what was actually observed). I’ll tell ya Liberty, I’d be extremely intrigued by a Tambora sized eruption happening in our lifetimes. Hopefully an isolated NH volcano without much direct human impact, and a classic gas composition. I don’t think we’d have much risk of a severe volcanic winter in terms of what people faced in 1816, I think we’d simple see a temporary regression in average temperatures for a couple years (we’re so far above the temperatures at the end of the LIA a volcanic winter would be a different animal today, IMO). From our current setpoint I don’t believe it’d be that severe, but a sudden decrease of ~1C would certainly feel like quite a shock.

2009-2011 was stupid nuts. I was in Long Branch then North Brunswick for that period, moving to my present location for 2012. Apparently 09-10 my current location had 74 inches, which is ludicrous. Vivid memory of driving up to pick my wife up at her house near East Brunswick in early / mid Feb 2010 to be with her for my bday that year, during a storm that had at least ten inches on the ground at the time I was heading toward her. I’ve never been bothered by driving in snow, and for whatever reason that memory sticks out vividly.

I was, I honestly don’t remember it that well. I know it’s blasphemous to say, and I don’t really recall why. My only memories of that storm were noting the infamous NAM run prior to the event, and worrying about my garage because of the amount of snow piling up on top of it without blowing or falling off. Remember coming out and knocking as much as I could off. Rest of the storm I don’t remember. I don’t think we got all that much down here, at least not much more than some Of the other biggies like Jan 18 here. Holistically as a recalled experience, it’s just not even close to Boxing Day for me. I recall almost that entire event and what we were doing throughout.

I think much of my frustration stems from not enjoying the “good times” as much as I should’ve, while we were in them. I’m in my mid 30’s, much of the 2000’s my focus was on everything but the weather and it was mostly a footnote at that time of my life despite always being appreciative of snow and having a better grasp on meteorology than my friends. The 2010’s were my early adulthood and once again I just had too many distractions at the time to really appreciate many of the best years (especially at the beginning of the decade). The exception was Boxing Day, being snowed in with my future wife in our North Brunswick apartment, enjoying every second of our time together and the crazy storm that was. I have to probably offer BD forward as my personal favorite snowstorm of my life. It’s simply my best snow memory. We were definitely in or near one of the CNJ jackpot areas too, because we had so much snow from that it was staggering. We got married and moved south the year after. Since things have settled down and I’m at a phase where I can really enjoy winter and have the time / energy to focus on tracking, etc, it’s mostly been a down era. Jan 2018 and Jan 22 were the big events for me from this period, and at least Feb 21 I had good times while at work (lingering more than I needed to at times). Got less snow that year at home than up in Union, but still great overall. Really would love one more epic season in the next few years, the kind that would be a top memory for all of us. Maybe it’s possible, maybe it’s not in the cards. Before long we’ll probably be moving north, though the exact location is still being debated. Can’t say I regret living down here the past ten years though, I feel like we did okay relative to what should be expected. But as things warm, it’s only going to get tougher and tougher in this location and more and more dependent on the rare, cold Jan 22 type storms to deliver any snow at all.

Wasn’t Jan 22 -EPO? I may be misremembering.

Anoxic ocean events correspond with many of the major heat pulses in previous climate states. Turning nutrient rich water columns into aquatic deserts.

The scary thing is most of the added/excess heat energy is taken up by the oceans (~90% IIRC), so it’s not difficult to see the intense marine heatwaves as a major caution flag right now, IMO. I think it was Hansen’s paper that determined since sometime in the 2000’s the earth has entered a major energy disequilibrium which corresponds to a period of intense warming (as well as a lag effect as the earth tries to recalibrate). I know that recent paper has its critics and can be seen as a very extreme view, but I’m not among them. His conclusions are well supported, IMO.

Still seeing scraps of pack driving through Monmouth even on the Parkway as I head north work up in Union. Not too shabby. You guys I’m sure have been doing very well with that.

I don’t remember exactly but it was definitely over a foot. It was a big storm for them. Just had a hellaciously sharp northern cutoff that verified even sharper than forecast. I think I was set to get 4-6 from it and got nothing.

Nah that hit here too. Was like 4-5 IMBY. I frustratingly whiffed north on the ACY storm (what was that 1/2 or 1/3?) when originally forecasted to get something. Nothing but virga while ACY got demolished. That was the only frustration point for me that month.

I’ll never forget tracking that band on radar, my jaw was on the floor. More than a little jealous but happy it happened!

Wow you did better than me, I had 16 inches at the Manchester border. I think I saw you’re at the eastern side of TR and this was definitely one of those storms that paid off being at the immediate coast. Great storm for us. Jan 22 was a nice wintry month, I look back on it very fondly for more than just the big finish.

Seeing many blame it on the very negative -PDO too that’s continued through the winter. Also know there’s some debate over when exactly the -PDO regime began in earnest and when it’s likely to flip or at least offer some reprieves. I do agree that not all winters should be judged the same if a -QBO Strong Niño underperforms its a bigger deal / worse than the worst variety of Niña pitching us a shutout. Very fortunate sub regionally there were a couple great events for different areas, and overall at least most of us saw something this year. But I can’t in good conscience call a top ten warm winter good unless it was a proficient snowmaker. Even then, I like wintry stretches in my winter and dislike these shutout periods of terrible patterns with no hope for snow events. I rank the 2013-2015 winters very highly for that reason; felt like winters of a bygone era. Even down here those winters I had pack retention and ice on my porch for weeks at a time. 2016 was great for the HECS but there are a lot of other storms the past 15 or so years that are really up there for me in terms of enjoyment (and 2016 depends a bit on exactly where you were and how much you got). Even 1/29/22 was a top tier deal for me here, going back to the temperature thing; cold smoke pure powder in 22f - that’s my absolute favorite kind of snowstorm. I suspect the 2013-2015 type winters are going to be rarer and rarer going forward, whereas a 2016 deal with an embedded HECS might be the way things roll going forward, perhaps the best case with one or two other moderate events as bookends in the absolute best years. Just some pure speculation.

I’m at 11 down here, not bad given the winter.

My min was 13.6 on 1/22, which is about 6 degrees warmer than my minimum last year which happened in December. Very few nights in the teens for me this winter in the northern edge of the pine barrens, which is unusual. We typically have many. Both Jan and Feb averaged 35 degrees and change which was actually about 5 degrees colder than Jan and Feb last year, and about equal to December last year. Dec this year was much warmer at 41.

Bottomed out at 16, definitely coldest of the season so far. Probably from all the nearby snowpack, right? Our inch and 2/3rds was mostly melted already, sadly. Definitely taking a glass half full approach overall, one of the warmest winters on record with extreme warmth in Canada and many marginal snow events in the area, and I’ve pulled down almost 11 inches in an area that doesn’t do well in marginal. Especially compared to last year, I’ll take it! And north CNJ northward has done impressively well these past two events, so it’s really nice to see in such a warm winter. I’d probably feel less optimistic if it were colder (even just average cold) and I missed on chance after chance, nah we’ve all done well to very well considering. And that extreme band that set up shop will be a very nice memory for a lot of people, that was absolutely wild! @Allsnow’s excitement was palpable and infectious!