Volcanic Winter

Sold, I’ll take it. Enjoy your snow dude.

Yeah. Finally shifted things south and threw me a WWA. I’ll be very happy to receive 2-4 here. I’m 10 miles inland from the ocean so usually in a decent spot for the area.

WWA for Ocean finally and WSW for Monmouth. Got the alert just as I checked out for a bit lol.

Enjoy the snow guys, they’re still forecasting basically all rain to me so I’m going to nope out instead of letting myself ride this into disappointment. So happy this is breaking right for the city at least!

Enjoy it dude. Well earned.

What do you think for me in interior northern Ocean? Models have been kind but officially it’s all rain. Thermals will for sure be an inhibitor. 1-3 on grass realistic? Not sure what to expect at this point.

I’m still officially forecasted for nothing but rain, it’s frustrating. Trying to be realistic but every model has me getting something, absolutely not expecting big totals in northern Ocean regardless of what any model shows, but a nice 2-4 would go down easily this winter.

Looks like Monmouth in a WWA now, still nothing for Ocean. 2-4. If Monmouth gets 2-4 I can’t see northern ocean getting nothing. We’ll see what happens for those of us at the southern extent of the metro.

Good luck man, hope this works out decently for the city.

Thank you, not rooting for this because it screws literally everyone else. I’d take and be ecstatic with 1-3/2-4 and I’m still not convinced that’s truly in the cards. Would feel better to see that reflected in an official AFD. But FWIW this reads “out to lunch” IMO.

Map me good sir, unable to check at the moment.

Lmao congrats me, nah that’s a sell.

Looks like they’re being very cautious expanding the WSW / WWA’s southward which suggests low confidence in the models depicting a great CNJ - NYC hit and or just a very conservative approach until right before game time given the shifts. Curious ultimately how hard they bite in the next few hours.

GFS mauls me. Not doing it, not getting roped in. Enjoy the snow!

The southern edge of that is probably too optimistic. Don’t think I’m seeing 1-3 here (TR / Manchester border).

I don’t think so, I think you guys are set. Monmouth / northern Ocean going to be too marginal temp wise, at least from the soundings I was looking at. If I see a couple flakes on the grass I’ll consider it a win. Hoping you guys get the goods though, positive changes for sure. If only the airmass was a bit less crap this woulda been fun for me too, but oh well. It’s been extremely warm, not unexpected. All the more if most of you see a significant storm out of this it’s a massive win with how things have been going.

I’d take that all day down here, but I just don’t see it happening (for me, you guys hopefully rock this one).

Look at me down here with my 7-8 on the season , I can’t believe NYC didn’t do better that week. FWIW I think the bit of latitude NYC has on me will help the rest of the season because I do not see the remaining couple weeks as a suppression risk. In my personal opinion with the block trending weaker and the tendency of so many storms to cut or favor northern areas, I still think it’s less likely I accumulate anything or much else, but that NYC still has a chance (could be wrong, just my thoughts at a glance as I haven’t been following things too closely right now). This season probably should’ve been a bit better for all of us regardless of the super / strong Niño but was thwarted by Pac warmth / MJO activity and the overpowering jet. How many systems now would’ve performed for all of us were it simply colder (including VDay coming up)? So frustrating. Regardless I’m still hoping the city breaks double digits. I’d like my patented work storm / snow commute (I’m the odd lunatic that enjoys driving in snow, and a lot of my favorite storms I experienced at work just west of the city).

Can only speak for myself but I’m just worn out, and right now focusing on my little bday trip tomorrow to VT. If any of these really end up locking in and we’re staring down a legit MECS, I’ll be over the moon. Until then I’m remaining cautious. Everything is still very far out there in time, as has been the case for a while tracking this pattern shift. So my comfort won’t increase until we’re into the middle of next week and staring down similar runs.

I’m going to be in Stowe Friday - Tuesday, of course I timed it perfectly for a massive thermal spike . Consolation prize would be some kind of snow before we head home, should that work out for up there. It does look like the worst of the heat spike avoids as far north as Stowe is, thankfully. Supposed to be hiking / snowshoeing, and definitely hitting The Alchemist brewery (which works regardless of the weather, a nice bday present!).

Best thing about 1/29/22 was the temperatures! I was at 22f at the time of peak snowfall; pure powder. I spent hours outside in it getting up early, and I took my sweet time shoveling. No rush to be had.

13.6 on 1/22. My home is on the extreme northern edge of the pine barrens down here, and am about 10 miles inland from the ocean.

Past couple nights I actually radiated down to near average lows, feels like a tremendous feat! 22 right now, average low is 21. Same as the night before. It’s really wild how much of a struggle it is for us to hit our average low temperatures anymore. It seems like it’s far easier for daytime highs to be NN/BN than low temperatures. This has something to do with excess moisture in the air / humidity blocking the ability to properly radiate heat at night? Just the sheer persistence of AN nightly lows is interesting to me.

What sort of temp departures are you anticipating for this period? I haven’t combed over model output but my Accuweather app is showing a range of about -2 to +2, of course I’m taking that with an entire salt shaker. What are your thoughts solely WRT temperature during the peak of the block?

My only point of contention is, respectfully, were winters as warm then on average, consecutively? That seems difficult to ignore, especially next to the stat that shows our snowiest winters as being colder on average. Just IMO. Also asking because I don’t know the stats off the top of my head, but I don’t believe they were.