Volcanic Winter
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@donsutherland1 What is Boston’s low temperature on the winter, Don? Seems like they’ve been in the same boat with temperatures, maybe even a bit more-so than I would’ve anticipated. My winter low is only 17, average at the end of Jan is 20… Absolute struggle to even get near it. Also what is Boston’s DJF average thus far? Thanks, much appreciated!
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Nice little event (hopefully). Should get me into double digits on the season. -
The AMOC shutting down abruptly would wildly disrupt monsoon cycles and lead to major agricultural failure. Whatever the actual acute temperature impacts on North America (lesser) and Europe (greater), it would be a catastrophe for many other reasons. There was a concerning paper last year stating collapse could occur between 2025 and 2090 which is considerably sped up from timelines running on older data. Doesn’t mean they’re inherently correct, but it’s concerning (IMHO).
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I have seen you, in general, be misquoted and have statements attributed to you that I’ve not seen you make in various other subforums this year. So you’re not wrong, I’ve seen it.
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He’s a bit cheeky. We all have our quirks lol.
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Man, if this were a 10:1 event…
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Snowman has been a great poster this year, I followed him over in the El Niño thread and he had some excellent insight and general contribution.
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Jan 22 was good, but unfortunately not uniformly so for everyone. I rate it higher though not just because of 1/29 but also the relatively sustained NN - BN temps. It’s admittedly a perspective and opinion thing because I actually appreciate cold in winter even if it’s not served with significant snowfall.
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and @Maestrobjwa Volcanic climate forcing can be anywhere from 2-4 years with some trailing effects for bigger (or more gaseous) eruptions. The primary constituent of HTHH’s mesosphere-reaching eruption column was water vapor, an anomaly for eruptions at borderline VEI 5/6 level (typically the size needed for impacts). With that said, the sulfur output was low and water vapor was high relative to the norm. There have been a few papers published about the water vapor and potential effects; I genuinely can’t answer for how much influence or disruption it may have had or is still currently having. I do believe it’s fair to say there is a real possibility of some continued impact, especially as papers I’ve reviewed suggest water vapor lingers longer than traditional volcanic aerosols. Unfortunately I believe the most insight will be gained with retrospective analysis as there is no modern, recorded analogue to Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha’apai’s eruptive style + size (roughly Pinatubo size but with enormously different constituent gas makeup).
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- weenie fest or weenie roast?
- weenies got roasted
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Suggests that yesterday’s event was close to a major storm, if it were only a tad slower and a bit colder. Still, it worked out for many of you up north substantially and I’m thrilled that was the case.
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What was the ratio in NNJ / NY state for yesterday’s storm? Something like 8:1?
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I’d like to crack double digits so I’d take this happily. Hoping we end up with a legit chance for something in that 22nd-ish window.
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I’m an 9 on the season, infinitely better than last year.
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Yeah, haven’t posted much about it because this was a great event for the northern tier of the metro, but today stunk for me given the runs yesterday and 2-5 WWA I was under. Barely got an inch that melted as it was falling. I wasn’t expecting anything from this anyway until the great model gesundheit yesterday which lured me in. Regardless, tough for me to do well in a marginal set up - no doubt. This was a great event for the metro and I’m thrilled for everyone who got a great snowfall out of it. Onto the next!
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Always difficult to transition back to reality after tracking a nice event. Really hoping we can do this one more time with what remains of winter, at least. Regardless of results. Thrill of the chase.
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This was a tough one, didn’t envy the meteorologists making calls yesterday. What do you do when the models show sudden drastic shifts, almost completely in unison? Yeah, tough one.
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Have a super low ratio inch down here, still snowing nicely but having trouble sticking. Temps ticked up to 33 from about 32.5 earlier this morning. Considering prior to the great model gesundheit of yesterday I wasn’t even expecting to really see flakes, I’ll take it. My property is all white and pretty, which is what we’re here for. This would put me at like 8-9 on the season, hopefully grab another inch or two before it exits but we’ll see. Glad this really worked out for many!
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Laki was an effusive mega drain-out of the Grímsvötn subglacial volcano within the Vatnajökull icecap. The same volcano that erupted explosively in 2011 to VEI 4 level (was actually fairly close to borderline VEI 5 level; it was a large event). The Laki eruption was an *enormous* rifting fissure eruption southwest of the icecap, it poured out 15 cubic kilometers of extremely sulfurous magma and had explosive components. The total sulfur output was like 120Tg’s (compared to 20 for Pinatubo). Not all of it reached the stratosphere due to it being predominantly effusive, but a lot did likely on intense thermal updrafts, and the eruption did have some explosive components mixed in. The fissure system for this eruption was over 80km in length… It was the third biggest effusive rift eruption in postglacial Iceland. A cloud of sulfur gas stuck in the troposphere was swept over to Europe and caused a lot of illness and death. In Iceland it was catastrophic for the local population. Can’t overestimate how substantial this event was, in terms of both local and global impact. And yes, there were known climatological impacts from this event.
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Monmouth Co getting shellacked right now.
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Finally have moderate to heavy snow down here, temps at 32 the past 45 min or so. Sticking nicely and starting to pile up. Good returns nearby, should make up some ground the next couple hours. I’ll be very pumped for a few inches here with this. (Not at work up north today, been off since last week - home for this).
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39/37 here with some light rain beginning. Temps started decreasing a bit.
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Sold, I’ll take it. Enjoy your snow dude.
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Yeah. Finally shifted things south and threw me a WWA. I’ll be very happy to receive 2-4 here. I’m 10 miles inland from the ocean so usually in a decent spot for the area.
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WWA for Ocean finally and WSW for Monmouth. Got the alert just as I checked out for a bit lol.
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Enjoy the snow guys, they’re still forecasting basically all rain to me so I’m going to nope out instead of letting myself ride this into disappointment. So happy this is breaking right for the city at least!