Volcanic Winter

Yeah I think regardless how this one ends up, the continued activity and look now on guidance going forward looks like we’ll be in a decent spot. So this would be a nice jumpstart / bonus were it to work out. We’ll see.

I don’t think the fluctuations / wobbles right now that surprising with how hugely important the HP position / confluence, and SW amplitude are in this setup. I think the general solution is found, but since thermals are walking a tightrope the cutoff between higher snows and lesser snows to no snow will probably bounce around 30+ miles for another 48 hours, I would think. If I’m wrong please correct, just how I’m viewing this at present. Still very interesting for the whole metro with the northern tier in a good spot, IMHO.

Hit 26 here, felt nice this morning.

Happy some runs are able to get good snows down to me, I'm still not letting myself expect anything but it at least appears to be a possibility. Really happy overall that this seems to be happening for the forum / region in general. It's very needed, I think.

Definitely, but that's usually the case anyway. What do we think this is, the north pole? ...

Hoping this goes big for you guys! I’m most likely sitting this one out here in coastal NJ, just gonna be too close to the low. But this looks like it has the potential to be a pretty great event for many. My nephew is actually down in Cockeysville now for grad school and he loves it there.

@bluewave It seems like there we are / will be losing snow events when teleconnection spreads are imperfect but should be workable, and an increased reliance on something like a strong -EPO to bring in the cold. It seems like even the -AO/-NAO can’t do much to offset a warm Pac configuration (aside from preventing an even greater warm anomaly), and that will only worsen over time. Focused on the lower M/A, last year PSUHoff had a nice series of posts showing how decades ago during the last -PDO cycle favorable Atlantic telecons were better able to offset an unfavorable Pacific and produce snow, which I thought was very interesting. Looking at the 2000’s and 2010’s, we seemed locked into extremely good patterns with lots of Pac and Atl cooperation. So it does sort of seem “loaded” against us while we’ve been in a period of poor Pac telecons on top of a warming spike. Some of that is coming from the frequent episodes of Pac air sourcing, but some of it is just the general background warming I would think. Looking at Jan 22 that was fairly cold but had a long -EPO IIRC? I know you (Bluewave) spoke about that month recently when I mentioned it before. Just musing.

It would make sense that even with a janky pattern we finally score with some luck on our side. We’ve been the antithesis of luck for too long. With that said, cautious optimism until we get closer. Really hoping this is a nice metro hit, and I’ll gladly take a sloppy 2-3 inches down here (hi @North and West) if we get NYC rockin’. Fingers crossed. Good analyses so far guys, thanks.

Very happy many of you will hopefully see something out of this. I’m probably screwed here for now, need more cold or a less amped solution like those runs earlier that showed a big hit here. Regardless, positives overall considering the alternative and hopefully the start of some improvements. Hopefully I’ll catch some snow at work (should these actually work out, fingers crossed).

It’s definitely more fun when everybody gets blasted, and those storms seem more likely to be the synoptic monsters that drop a ton of snow anyway. Personally I’m never just rooting for a storm to hit me, I want to see it blanket the entire stretch from DC to BOS. I know that’s rare, we’re talking fantasy ideals. But those are the most fun storms. Get everybody in on the action, and it becomes a major and truly memorable event.

@40/70 Benchmarkand others in the Niño thread through the fall were discussing the MEI and RONI, that despite how strong the Niño grew the atmospheric response wasn’t quite as strong. I don’t know where those values are right now, and I don’t know if this is still a valid point or question to raise, but was wondering if this could have anything to do with it? Assuming those metrics are still on the low-ish end? I may be on the wrong track here, just thinking out loud. I mean the Niño did do the strong Niño thing of torching NA with pac air, so forgive me if this doesn’t make sense.

Month isn’t done but I’m at 42.1 average for Dec. 2022 was 36.5 for the complete month and by far the coldest of “winter” last year. Just for fun Nov 23 was 43.3. Just a little more than a one degree difference Nov -> Dec this year. Last year was over a 10 degree difference. Crazy.

I mean, the M/A forum seems fine with the usual analysis guys tracking the next few waves full steam ahead and with a bit of optimism about it. That’s totally fine and power to them, I’m just getting tired of several people taking unnecessary potshots at respectable posters here and elsewhere, unprovoked. I’ve seen that more this season than any time since I’ve signed up, and it’s not just a “well I disagree and here’s why,” it’s close to outright mocking. That I don’t respect or vibe with and I’ve personally found annoying. The NE forum is always a mix of total hilarious shitshow and excellent analyses, and tbh I love reading it. Always a trip.

There’s a resurgent volcanic conduit in the middle where activity has shifted (this happens after a magma chamber disintegrates in a catastrophic eruption but the heat source stays active). The cataclysmic eruptions that formed the caldera were a long time ago. Not unlike Wizard island in Mazama. Going from memory I haven’t read into Batur in a while. But it’s an interesting potential analogue for what could happen to Agung in the future. Agung in the 60’s had a climate impacting VEI 5 with a lot of sulfur output. HTHH unfortunately was likely our statistical VEI 6 for the next couple decades at least, though that’s not ironclad. There’s a couple candidate systems for a larger eruption, but they could be hundreds of years from an event of that magnitude. Most of the big VEI 6 climate impactors have come out of nowhere, like Pinatubo that wasn’t even known to be volcanic until it seismically woke up (and geologists probed the nearby ground and saw evidence of recent enormous eruptions, oops - 1991 was actually on the smaller side of what that volcano can do), or Santa Maria in the early 1900’s that was inactive for thousands of years prior.

I think there has to be some countenance given to the idea that eastern snow climo is degrading in the post 2016 years. Some of us have had a couple good periods in that time, but even up to SNE has been hurting in a location that much more resistant to the effects of marginal patterns. It’s not solely the lower mid MA, though you guys have unfortunately had the rawest end of the stick so far it seems. My personal position is that we’re in a period of amplification. The few good years will really be bonanzas, but the length of time between them may be increasing especially as we’re in an unfavorable decadal cycle. The bad years will be worse than normal, as we face more temperature problems that degrade what would’ve been perhaps a couple inches here and there otherwise. I know NYC is not your area, but it’s been demonstrated how that city is entering a “boom or bust” pattern where either we get a ton of snow or very little to nothing, which is a definite change over how things worked in previous decade with more average or near average seasons in the mix. Something *is* changing, but the ultimate end result of that is unknowable at this juncture IMHO. I would expect a few more blockbuster seasons for the East as we move forward, but perhaps with a lower frequency than in the past. The 2000’s to 2010’s may have just been a favorable decadal period that leveraged warming in a productive way, and now it’s going the other direction for however long. A lot of the big years recently seemed to have unusually favorable teleconnection spreads, which probably would have been massive years in earlier decades as well. I think @psuhoffmanhas shown how earlier decades used to produce more snow with less favorable teleconnections. If we’re not seeing “as much” snow now with less favorable teleconnections, while also demonstrably having warmer winter seasons, that to me suggests a change. It’ll take more time to deduce both the magnitude and permanence of that change, but IMHO that’s a rational position to take while considering all factors. I believe we’ll see big winters again when everything goes right, but the question is what will continue to happen in the years where everything isn’t 100% right but we should otherwise still be getting snow? I echo a lot of PSU’s sentiments and find them well reasoned, but we still need more time to evaluate. This is a long stretch of dung for many, but could still be in part due to just unfavorable decadal cycles and bad luck. To truly determine how much of the other factor is the driving problem will require, unfortunately, more elapsed time / winters. But (and this is a big but), I do agree and believe that other factor is a significant part of it as planetary warming has accelerated in the last few years. IMHO. Hoping this winter ends up at least serviceable for you and the rest of us. Try to stay open minded, optimistic but also grounded, and willing to consider all positions that are well founded and backed by data. There’s a wealth of information and individual positions across these forums.

A cold and snow starved weenie at the end of their rope, of course.

I actually agree with you, to a point. However IMHO if this is your position, elaborate, explain, and defend your position instead of dropping one or two line posts that are taken in an inflammatory manner whether or not they were intended that way. This is a science discussion forum, and the discussion part is key. From my perspective I appreciate and respect the posters who elaborate and defend their positions, even if I don’t like or don’t agree with their positions. Snowman has done a much better job with that this year, and I enjoy his posts for that reason. I mean you do you, but I’m actually curious for you to elaborate on these little brief one or two line comment drops you do because I’m genuinely curious about your position, but need more than a snippy sound bite. Just my 2c as more of a reader than a contributor.

I have a nice moss carpet in my backyard, anyone want some pictures? It’s kept festive with a charming mix of acorns and squirrel droppings.

Crater / caldera lake. Reminds me of Mazama:

We’ve been five times since 2017, we have it bad for that place. Even my wife who doesn’t have the same geology passion as me has grown to love Iceland as much as me. I’ve traveled a lot in my life and Iceland has pretty much emerged as the location I can’t move on from. Convergence of a lot of hobbies and things I enjoy, I guess.

I’m really hesitant to hike up active volcanoes, but an infrequent eruptor should generally be fine unless it’s clearly flashing buildup activity. Last year I hiked up an adjacent peak to Hekla in Iceland and that was a close as I dared to get. Absolutely absurdly beautiful out there, and was very awe inspiring to see such a legendary volcano up close.

Was it the Batur caldera by any chance?

All beautiful, it’s a gorgeous place. I’d love to go for that as well. Both Samalas / Rinjani and Tambora are just visible from one another on a clear day. Site of the two largest eruptions of the last millennium, both VEI 7. Indonesia is extremely prolific in its ability to create monstrous explosive volcanism. The fact you saw ancient calderas is part of why I suggest this about Agung. There are some exceptions, but looking at a volcanoes neighbors is a good way to learn about its activity and potential. A lot of volcanic systems progress in cycles, with large scale caldera collapse and destruction of the magma chamber being sort of the final stage. Agung could do that eventually.

I’d go to see Gunung Agung in person. Beast of a volcano. Could be a future high level VEI 6 to 7 caldera candidate.

I can only imagine how fun this place was through that event. I only really got to experience 1/29/22 and that wasn’t a huge deal outside my area and LI. More a NE storm. But was still very fun to track with a lot of last minute uncertainties, and at least something for much of the metro.