TheClimateChanger

Looks legit.

I didn't start the discussion - funny, how I'm the only one disciplined.

Just for the record, my post was not gentle trolling. I think if we continue business as usual, hardy palms like sabols and windmills will certainly be cultivatable without protection in much of the Great Lakes region. Models indicate up to 6C of globally-averaged warming, with climates in the Great Lakes approaching those of the southern US by the end of the century. If your position is hardy palms could not grow in the Great Lakes on a business-as-usual trajectory, I'm going to have to disagree as that would require ignoring what the models depict. Obviously, the pictures of coconut palms are trolling. With the added impacts of what essentially amounts to an inland sea, I would expect wintertime minima to be even more moderate than those observed in the southern U.S. in past history. My wife is from the United Kingdom, and there are plenty of hardy palms there and that's even further north. While an oceanic climate, it wasn't too long ago that the U.K. was much colder than it is today (see frost fairs on the River Thames during the Little Ice Age). I would expect the Great Lakes to have a similar wintertime climate given the moderating effect of the lakes. I do agree with the second part of your last sentence (regarding crop failures), which speaks towards the likelihood of continuing on a business-as-usual path, and not towards the likelihood of palms growing in the region should we persist on that path. I would suspect the powers that be would rather block out the sun than let us enjoy a subtropical paradise here in the Lakes.

Agreed. Continental drift (in terms of latitudinal change) is only a small part of those past climate regions - it takes many eons to make a huge difference. Bigger changes to local climates come from uplift of the surface, formation of mountains, etc. During the Cretaceous, there was a shallow ocean covering much of the middle of the continent known as the Western Interior Seaway. Uplift of the Rockies led to a depression in the continental shelf over the interior that filled with waters from the ocean. The continent was essentially split into two mountainous islands (Appalachians on the east). I'm sure the shallow inland ocean and the lower altitude of much of the continent played a big role in the moderate climate of North America in that era, in addition to the relatively high levels of carbon dioxide.

Today says hold my beer.

About as warm as it gets for this time of the day in the month of November. The 3 am, 4 am, and 5 am readings at PIT tied the warmest ever observed during those hours in the month of November.

Same here. Remember filling up all the pumpkin bags with all of the fallen leaves in the weeks prior to Halloween.

So far, I'd say I am doing pretty well with the prediction. The mean low temperature at Cleveland for the first 4 years of the 2020s is 4F above zero. That is solidly Zone 7A, bordering Zone 7B. Other climate locations in northeast Ohio: Akron, 4F; Mansfield, 1F; Youngstown, -1F. Nearby Erie, PA is at 5F.

I predicted this decades ago.

Pittsburgh's also a lot warmer than people think. 25F is the record low at Athens, Georgia, and only 3F below the record for Tallahassee, Florida.

It looks like they have snowfall records back to 1874 on xmACIS2. A trace was also observed in 1874 & 1875. 1874 1875

2020 was very close. Officially, picked up 0.5" on the 2nd, but it fell on the night of the 1st, but after 1 am EDT. I had about an inch that morning at my house. There was very little, if any, snow the remainder of November. But December 1, 2020 opened up with a big storm - officially, 6.8" but more than that north of the airport and city.

Heavy snow here. Ground is covered.

With a chance of snow later on today, figured I'd take a look at Halloween snowfall climatology. Only one year with measurable snowfall (1993), and it was a doozy. However, there have been 10 years in which at least a trace of snowfall was recorded (out of 128 years for which snowfall data is said to be available for October 31). So snowflakes [and/or ice pellets] at some point on Halloween aren't super rare, occurring on average once every 12.8 years historically. Although should snowflakes [and/or ice pellets] be observed today, it would be the third time in the past 12 years. And if we do manage to accumulate a dusting before 1 am EDT, it would be only the second time on record for accumulating snowfall on 10-31.

Some of the 2.6" appears to have fallen yesterday, so it won't all be attributed to the 31st (snowfall was shown as missing from yesterday's climate report). Depending on how much fell yesterday, it will still be second or third highest daily total.

Very impressive swing. From a monthly record high of 92F on the 1st, to a daily record snow depth of 2" on the 31st.

Same analysis at Caribou, ME (CAR) [records dating to January 1939]. There's more of all records with the considerably shorter POR, but same story. 2020 was particularly extreme in both measures compared to other recent years. In 2020, almost one out of every ten days was among the 3 warmest. Here are the number of days at CAR with a high among the top 3 warmest on record, since 2020: 2020: 34 2021: 29 2022: 25 2023: 10 (so far) Here are the number of days at BTV with a low among the top 3 coldest on record, since 2020: 2020: 14 2021: 3 2022: 4 2023: 4 (so far)

Here are the number of days at BTV with a high among the top 3 warmest on record, since 2020: 2020: 25 2021: 21 2022: 21 2023: 17 (so far) Here are the number of days at BTV with a low among the top 3 coldest on record, since 2020: 2020: 2 2021: 0 2022: 0 2023: 1 (so far)

I don't know how this myth has started that I don't give equal time to record cold. Why in the world would I post about a Texas cold snap in a New England subforum? Regardless, to show the folly in this accusation, let's shift back to New England and look at Burlington, Vermont (BTV) on ThreadEx. So far, just this year, there have been 17 days where the maximum temperature has been among the 3 highest of record [dating to 1883]. January 1: 51, 2nd warmest February 10: 45, 3rd warmest [tie] February 15: 57, record warmest February 16: 56, record warmest April 13: 88, record warmest April 14: 77, 3rd warmest April 15: 85, record warmest April 16: 83, 3rd warmest June 1: 96, record warmest June 2: 91, record warmest September 4: 90, 3rd warrmest [tie] September 5: 90, 2nd warmest [tie] September 6: 92, record warmest October 3: 84, record warmest October 4: 86, record warmest *monthly record* October 5: 83, record warmest October 27: 73, 2nd warmest [tie] By comparison, since 1/1/2020 (so nearly 4 full years), there have been only three days in which the low temperature was among the three coldest readings. May 18, 2023: 29, record coldest [tie] September 19, 2020: 34, 3rd coldest [tie] October 31, 2020: 20, 3rd coldest [tie] It's very difficult to give equal time to two things when only one of them occurs with any sort of regularity.

Yesterday was the latest calendar day on record on which the temperature climbed to 30C/86F at Dulles, beating the prior mark by one week. If this pattern had set in a few days later, could have reached or exceeded a monthly record high for the second time in 3 months.

Very impressive heat in Cleveland yesterday. The high of 78 and low of 65 were both the highest on record (tie for the maximum temperature). More notably, the low of 65F has never been exceeded later in the calendar year and only matched twice - November 2, 2016 & incredibly on December 3, 1982. The mean temperature of 71.5F has been exceeded only once later in the calendar year (72.5F, on 11-1-1950) and matched once (11-2-2016). Needless to say, yesterday was about as warm as it gets for this time of the calendar year.

And yet people will complain I don't give the same energy to record cold. Go to ThreadEx and do a Ctrl-F search for 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020. MKE has not only not had a record low since 2019, it hasn't had a daily low temperature among the bottom three lowest since 2019. Even record/near record low maxima have been exceptionally sparse, with only one tied record since 2019 (2/14/2021): 2023: none; 2022: 39F on 4/27, tied one or more prior years for 3rd coldest, and 2F on 12/23 was second coldest; 2021: 10F on 2/13 was 3rd coldest; and 3F on 2/14 tied 1943 for coldest on record; 2020: 41F on 5/8 was 2nd coldest.

The 82F at MKE was the latest in the year for to reach that temperature, but only just barely. On 10/23, there were two days recorded at 84F (1963 & 1899). Daily record highs drop fairly quickly this time of the year, but there have been 5 later 80+ readings: 81F, on 10/26/1963; 80F, on 10/26/1927; 81F, on 10/27/1927; 81F, on 10/29/1937; and 80F, on 10/31/1950. As you can see from those dates, it was the latest 80F+ reading at MKE since 1963.