TheClimateChanger

Really helps to highlight the dirty little secret that nobody is allowed to utter. Contrary to "The Narrative" (TM), NOAA's temperature data consistently WARMS the PAST and COOLS the PRESENT when it comes to the highest quality stations - i.e., WBAN stations that have always observed on midnight-to-midnight days and have always been manned by meteorologists and/or trained observers from the army or navy. Too frequently this is hand-waved away by claiming it's due to the urban heat island effect due to these stations typically [but not always] being located in or near cities. Just look at the Del Rio graph. They tacked on 2F or more to all the early data - the handful of years in the early 1950s, and even into the colder summers in the 1970s - despite all of the data from the 1960s and 1970s being from the same location. And as @donsutherland1points out there's little evidence of explosive growth and urbanization driving these trends. So, what is the reason for the adjustments? I suspect it's largely due to pairwise homogenization, which is fine and dandy. But isn't a serious problem when a subset of the data (WBAN data) - and I would argue the superior quality data - has a trend that substantially deviates from the whole of the data?

Running the same analysis at Chicago. The current streak of 80F+ readings is up to 12 days, which is tied for 92nd longest [of any time of the year] and is forecast to reach 13 days [which would be tied for 75th longest at any time of the year]. As far as September is concerned at Chicago. The latest streaks of 10 or more days at or above 80F are: 13 days, ending 9/13/2005 [being the last 13 days of a 20-day streak]; 12 days, ending 9/15/1978; and 10 days, ending 9/17/1952, 9/10/2002 [last 10 days of a 12-day streak] and 9/10/1971 [last 10 days of a 13-day streak]. 34 days, ending 9/6/1995 [4th longest of all time] 24 days, ending 9/5/1983 [14th longest of all time] 20 days, ending 9/13/2005 20 days, ending 9/6/1980 19 days, ending 9/8/1960 15 days, ending 9/3/1953 13 days, ending 9/10/1971 12 days, ending 9/20/2024 [ongoing] 12 days, ending 9/10/2002 12 days, ending 9/15/1978 12 days, ending 9/5/1973 12 days, ending 9/4/1889 11 days, ending 9/8/1996 11 days, ending 9/1/1969 11 days, ending 9/4/1937 10 days, ending 9/4/1966 10 days, ending 9/3/1961 10 days, ending 9/17/1952 10 days, ending 9/9/1922

The streak at Detroit is up to 12 days now, and is forecast to reach 14 days. 12 days matches the 120th longest streak of 80F+ max temps of all time [at any time of the year]. Should this streak reach 14 days, there have only been 88 streaks longer than that in the threaded record. The vast majority of 80+ streaks of 10 or more days occurred in meteorological summer, particularly July and/or August. Of all streaks of 10 or more days of 80+, only 19 have extended into and/or occurred entirely within the month of September - the vast majority ending very early on in the month and carrying over from August. The longest streak is 24 days, ending 9/6/1983. Prior to 2024, the longest streak entirely in the month of September is 10 days - being the last 10 days of the 18-day streak ending on 9/10/2002, as well as 10 day streaks ending 9/11/1961, 9/10/1933 and 9/11/1884. Prior to 2024, there are no instances of a streak of 10 or more days of 80F+ extending later than September 11. Also of note, there are only 19 instances of a streak of 10+ days of 80 or more which has extended into September in the entire threaded record, and two of them have occurred this year. A 10-day streak ended on September 1, 2024, and currently a 12-day streak is ongoing. 24 days, ending 9/6/1983 20 days, ending 9/3/2022 18 days, ending 9/10/2002 17 days, ending 9/7/2012 17 days, ending 9/7/1969 16 days, ending 9/4/1953 16 days, ending 9/8/1881 15 days, ending 9/1/2013 15 days, ending 9/1/1980 13 days, ending 9/6/1973 12 days, ending 9/20/2024 [ongoing] 12 days, ending 9/4/1937 11 days, ending 9/9/2015 10 days, ending 9/1/2024 10 days, ending 9/4/1966 10 days, ending 9/11/1961 10 days, ending 9/10/1933 10 days, ending 9/3/1889 10 days, ending 9/11/1884

Wow, I would’ve thought 84F would be a record up there. What is the record for September 18?

Those areas should see drought improvement in the update this week due to the rains from Francine. Memphis had 6.52" of rain over the past week.

But everyone on here said the ice would recover and/or we didn't have enough data to opine on the significance of the record ice loss. I said "no, the arctic is in a death spiral." I wonder who was right?

One confounding factor is that the 3-year running means near the peak of solar activity all encompass notable El Nino events, except for the early 1980s peak (where the El Nino was offset by a couple of years). Perhaps unsurprisingly, the 1980s do not demonstrate the same degree of correlation. As the old maxim goes, correlation does not imply causation.

Decided to take a look at how these diurnal ranges compare to prior months. Obviously with the caveat that two more weeks are left in the month, so they will probably go down a bit. But at the moment, they would rank among the largest on record at New Philadelphia (records to 1948) and Zanesville (records to 1895). Here are all instances of a 30F+ diurnal range at both sites, with September 2024's data to date highlighted in bold. There has not been a mean monthly diurnal range at or above 30F at either site since June 1988. Note that the old data has somewhat of a bias towards larger diurnal ranges, since the LiG/CRS tends to result in somewhat higher highs and slightly lower lows than modern automated equipment. For cooperative data in the threaded record, a reset time in afternoon would also result in a slightly larger diurnal range since it has a greater positive bias on mean maximum temperature. New Philadelphia October 1963, 36.2F September 2024, 33.0F September 1963, 32.3F October 1964, 31.4F June 1988, 31.3F August 1962, 30.7F July 1965, 30.7F May 1977, 30.7F September 1985, 30.4F Zanesville October 1963, 35.3F May 1941, 34.7F September 1939, 33.6F September 1897, 33.3F October 1938, 32.8F September 2024, 32.7F May 1939, 32.3F October 1964, 32.1F April 1941, 32.0F September 1952, 31.5F October 1953, 31.4F September 1941, 31.2F June 1936, 31.2F May 1936, 31.1F September 1963, 30.5F July 1936, 30.5F September 1908, 30.5F June 1988, 30.4F September 1953, 30.4F August 1899, 30.2F July 1944, 30.1F September 1943, 30.0F

But anyways, the thermometer seems to be working fine. High temperatures are right in line with the nearest sites. Low temperatures are higher due to urbanization. Here's September to date: Columbus Int'l Ohio State University Newark, Ohio Lancaster, Ohio Zanesville, Ohio

That's not true. Cincinnati is in D1 - moderate drought, while Columbus is in D3 - extreme drought.

One for the record books. At Columbus, it's been the 5th warmest on record since June 1 (by mean maximum temperature - a better measure of drought stress than average temperature) and easily the driest on record - nearly 0.6" less than the 1930 drought. Mean High Temperature Precipitation

Latest Op GFS not too enthused on the rainfall this week.

Should be another record or near record high at the Jefferson County Airport. Current record appears to be 82F, set in 1970.

000CDUS41 KCTP 142120CLIBFDCLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA520 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2024......................................THE BRADFORD CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR SEPTEMBER 14 2024...VALID TODAY AS OF 0500 PM LOCAL TIME.CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1957 TO 2024WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ...................................................................TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 81R 359 PM 81 1991 71 10 67 MINIMUM 50 613 AM 27 1985 48 2 43 AVERAGE 66 60 6 55 PRECIPITATION (IN) TODAY 0.00 1.09 1980 0.12 -0.12 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 2.29 1.65 0.64 1.13 SINCE SEP 1 2.29 1.65 0.64 1.13 SINCE JAN 1 32.15 29.50 2.65 27.32 DEGREE DAYS HEATING TODAY 0 6 -6 10 MONTH TO DATE 65 68 -3 24 SINCE SEP 1 65 68 -3 24 SINCE JUL 1 116 171 -55 55 COOLING TODAY 1 1 0 0 MONTH TO DATE 5 19 -14 55 SINCE SEP 1 5 19 -14 55 SINCE JAN 1 464 272 192 341 ...................................................................WIND (MPH) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 12 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION E (110) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 17 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION SE (140) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 2.0 SKY COVER POSSIBLE SUNSHINE MM AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.1 WEATHER CONDITIONS THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED TODAY. FOG RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT) HIGHEST 100 200 AM LOWEST 48 100 PM AVERAGE 74 ..........................................................THE BRADFORD CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW NORMAL RECORD YEAR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 71 85 1991 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 48 27 1983 SUNRISE AND SUNSET SEPTEMBER 14 2024.....SUNRISE 654 AM EDT SUNSET 725 PM EDT SEPTEMBER 15 2024.....SUNRISE 655 AM EDT SUNSET 723 PM EDT - INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.$$

000SXUS71 KPBZ 142151RERDUJRECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA0549 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2024...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT DUBOIS PA...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 82 DEGREES WAS SET AT DUBOIS PA TODAY.THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 82 DEGREES SET IN 2005.$$MILCAREK

000SXUS71 KPBZ 142151RERDUJRECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA0549 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2024...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT DUBOIS PA...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 82 DEGREES WAS SET AT DUBOIS PA TODAY.THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 82 DEGREES SET IN 2005.$$MILCAREK

The 1971-2000 normal and 1981-2010 normal for BWI for the month of December was 36.7F. The mean for those periods was 37.7F and 37.3F, respectively, but the normal appears to have been adjusted downward to account for changes in equipment. 2016 2008 2007 2004

2004, 2007, 2008, and 2016 were all warmer than normal based on the normals in place at the time [some by fairly substantial margins]. They jacked up what's considered "normal" at BWI in December by nearly 2F in 2021.

PIT is 1.6F below normal through the 12th, but the next several days should get us back to normal [or above]. The 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks from yesterday look like an inferno for most of the eastern US, so we should be well-positioned for another warmer than normal month.

I'm just repeating what others have told me about only the maximum temperatures counting. Take it up with them.

I was told only daytime maxima count in the warm season here, and those are currently 3F below normal, and should come in above normal for the next several days at a minimum. By contrast, lows are nearly 7F below normal. The drought and unusually low humidity is clearly enhancing the negative departures through anomalous diurnal ranges.

Summer 2024 finished in fourth place nationally behind 1936, 2021 & 2022.

I mean just compare the last two decades of U.S. CRN data and/or US48 satellite derived data (you can even use the latter back to 1979) - neither of which is subject to any TOBs adjustment - to Martz's "raw" data. It's nonsense.

I don't even believe Martz's graphic is accurate. There's no way even the raw data would show 2019 as one of the coldest years. A so-called meteorology student really wants to claim 2019 was colder than the late 70s or some of the other historically cold years in the 19th century and early 20th century. Where was the feet of snow, days and days of below zero weather, etc.? What a joke! I don't even need a thermometer to tell me that's a load of bullcrap. 2019 wasn't even close to the coldest of that decade - years like 2014 & 2015 were obviously colder, which is what the actual data shows. Moreover, deniers used to say in the 1990s and early 2000s, that we were in a warm cycle comparable to the 1930s to 1950s, and it would soon start cooling. Obviously, it has instead continued to warm. But what even was the point of that discussion if that era was actually not warm and instead about the same as the so-called "cold cycle" in the late 1950s to 1980 era? It's laughably stupid. I suspect there's something else going on in that chart - not just TOBs. Like not factoring in station changes [location, elevation, makeup] and/or not properly gridding the data, but instead just taking a mean of whatever station data is available.