TheClimateChanger

What's the severe weather risk look like us tomorrow? I wasn't given it to much thought until I saw this storm in Michigan which has to be EF3+.

Tornado Warning MIC023-149-062130- /O.NEW.KIWX.TO.W.0003.260306T2103Z-260306T2130Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Northern Indiana 403 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026 The National Weather Service in Northern Indiana has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern St. Joseph County in southwestern Michigan... Northwestern Branch County in southwestern Michigan... * Until 430 PM EST. * At 403 PM EST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Centreville, or near Three Rivers, moving northeast at 40 mph. Reports of damage have been received in Three Rivers. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. * This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern St. Joseph and northwestern Branch Counties, including the following locations... Mendon, Leonidas, Fishers Lake, and Sherwood. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4201 8522 4193 8556 4200 8561 4207 8551 4207 8527 TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 240DEG 34KT 4199 8554 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN $$ FISHER

Yeah, I've always thought it was a red herring. The Lake Erie at Buffalo average annual temperature is rising at pretty much the exact same rate as the air temperature at Buffalo. So unless UHI is pouring into Lake Erie, it would seem the temperature represents a real trend. Lake is slightly warmer because it doesn't drop below 32F in the winter due to ice.

We've had that for 21, going on 22, years - it's called the United States Climate Reference Network and it shows more, not less, warming than the official numbers over the period of overlap.

Suspect he's jumping the gun a bit. This is what the GFS shows for the morning of the 16th:

Source: drroyspencer.com

Spring is coming!

I think most people assume the normals are simply smoothed averages, but they actually use statistical techniques like pairwise homogenization that are supposed to correct for biases, but unfortunately can introduce biases if bad data is being incorporated at the time the normals are being calculated.

Sorry a little old, I just wanted to point out that this is only related to the computation of the "normals" from the two sites. Toledo actually averaged 0.3°F cooler than Fort Wayne for the 1991-2020 timeframe. The normals in Toledo add about 1.5°F or so to this actual mean. Not sure if NOAA/NWS was piloting some sort of new calculation of normals that would incorporate a warming climate or what the case may be. My alternative guess would be Toledo was running a little hot beginning around July 2019 and continuing through the end of 2020 - looks like a sensor error, as it suddenly started running about 1.5F warmer than Fort Wayne. That's no longer the case, but whatever algorithm they use to create the normals may have interpreted that as a real step change up and added into the calculated normals. Which is annoying now that the temperature sensor is long since running normal again, as it has led to more negative anomalies than most surrounding sites [as in the examples you post above]. Obviously, not related to rural siting as Toledo Express is in a very rural location well outside the city.

Some more information on that one...

Update for late reporting cooperative observation sites. Falcon Dam recorded a high of 106F yesterday!

Strong signal for warmth as we roll into the second week of March, showing up well on both the EPS and GEFS.

Looks like it. What's interesting is even that only sums to 30.5 inches.