TheClimateChanger

Officially, the first 95F since 2018 today.

One regional caveat: 1977 was not warm at all in western Pennsylvania. It technically ranks as Pittsburgh’s 2nd-coldest summer, though several older downtown-era summers would likely have been colder under today’s airport siting/elevation. It was also the 7th-coldest at Erie. That blistering July heat somehow largely skipped over this part of the region. Pittsburgh topped out at just 91°F, and Erie only reached 90°F all summer.

Yes, not fun. One correction - it was July 5th, 1972, not July 3rd. Knew it was near the 4th, just mixed up the day.

Jeff's one of my favorite meteorologists, but I don't know where he's getting this El Nino supercharges heat domes idea. Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems like developing strong El Ninos have almost always brought cooler, wetter conditions. Case in point, look at 1972. On this date, the HIGHS were commonly 55-59 across northeast Ohio and western Pennsylvania. Can you imagine if that happened today?

I know the response will be, “Well, that’s just Cleveland.” But this has not been isolated to Cleveland at all. The magnitude looks comparable across much of the region. For example, I saw someone from Detroit downplaying the event. Barring enough thunderstorms or rain-cooled air to meaningfully alter today’s outcome, Detroit looks poised for its second-warmest four-day stretch since 1953, behind only a comparable period in 2011. And that 1953 benchmark was observed at City Airport. While there is a substantial data gap there, this stretch appears likely to be the warmest at City Airport since 1936—warmer than both 1953 and 2011. I get that Cleveland and Detroit have had hotter individual days and worse heat waves before. But this strikes me as a legitimately high-end regional heat and humidity event, especially for early July. I am honestly surprised by how little appreciation it seems to be getting.

Am I the only one who has been impressed by this heat wave? It feels like it has been oddly downplayed. Assuming Cleveland Hopkins Airport reaches the forecast high of 95°F today, and the temperature does not drop below the current daily low, the June 30–July 3 period would average 86.3°F. It has already reached 94°F, so not far under that forecast value. That would be hotter than every four-day stretch in the Cleveland record except the periods ending July 11, 12, 13, and 14, 1936, and September 3, 1953. It would also make this Cleveland’s first three-day stretch of 95°F+ since 1988. And it has not just been one hot afternoon. On June 30, Cleveland reached 93°F, the second-warmest reading for the date. The low of 78°F set a daily record and was the third-warmest June low on record. The 85.5°F daily mean was also a record. Then came July 1: a record high of 97°F, Cleveland’s hottest day since July 17, 2012. The 87.0°F daily mean set a record and was only 2°F below the all-time warmest daily mean on record. July 2 reached 96°F, the second-warmest high for the date and just 1°F below the daily record. The 86.0°F mean was likewise second warmest for the date, and the daily records for that date are from 1872 when the weather station had a warm-biased window exposure. Today, July 3, the low has only fallen to 78°F thus far, yet another daily record, and just 3°F shy of Cleveland’s all-time warmest low. Cleveland had already reached 94°F by 2 PM local time, and a forecast high of 95°F would yield an 86.5°F daily mean, another record. The humidity has been just as remarkable. IEM hourly data, extending back to 1931, show four June hourly heat-index records set or tied on June 30, along with six June hourly dewpoint records. At least seven July hourly dewpoint records have already been set or tied as well. Cleveland also observed a dewpoint of 80°F or higher—only the fourth day with such a reading in the IEM hourly record since 1931. Maybe this is not the most historic heat wave ever in every respect, but several daily records, near-monthly records, extraordinary dewpoints, a rare 80°F dewpoint, and very little nighttime relief seems pretty impressive to me. If we were looking at a four-day cold spell that ranked behind only a 1936 cold wave and one 1953 period, with several daily records, near-monthly records, record-level hourly departures, this forum would be hyping it nonstop.

Wow! Could this be the hottest July on record for the CONUS? If the NBM is to be believed, we could be near 3F above the 1991-2020 means by July 12/13, staring down a potential monster heat ridge mid-month? The existing record is 1936, at +2.38F, followed closely by 2012 at +2.34F. This seems hard to believe with a developing Strong/Super El Nino?

Well, I'm more concerned about the Canadian wildfires smoking out the celebrations, if the HRRR is correct. Just noting the air quality could be even worse when you combine that with fireworks.

This would be interesting if it were to occur. HRRR suggesting some degraded air quality from wildfire smoke settling near the surface in parts of New England tomorrow. Add in firework smoke, and it could be even worse I'd imagine?

Probably safe to say this will be the hottest of the summer? Can’t imagine it getting this hot again with so much smoke just over the border? I mean this is just insane.

Damn, looks like Canada forgot to rake their forests again!

Official highs so far: JFK, EWR, and LGA: 102F NYC: 100F

Also note sea ice extent (coverage of 15% or greater) versus area.

Especially amazing when you consider some of the warm Marches of that era (e.g., 2012).

Wow! 114°F heat index!

97F at Cleveland. Hottest overall since 2012 (98F), and matches 2012 for hottest by this date in the year since 1988. Toledo topped out at 99F, but it hasn’t been as long since it’s been that hot there. 2024 topped out at 99F & 2022 at 100F. I think Toronto, Ont. reached at least 98F. Bet it’s bet awhile since they’ve seen that temperature.

Hello darkness, my old friend.

This looks absolutely insane too. Canada is just dotted with fires seemingly from the Rockies all the way to the Atlantic Coast. What the heck is even burning up near the Arctic Circle? Nuts.

I'm tracking some of this smoke, but haven't seen much note of it... however, if the HRRR is correct, it could get pretty nasty over parts of the region - including potentially the Twin Cities. Wonder if this might keep high temperatures in check tomorrow?

Incredible stuff. This month will mark 17 months since the last month below the 20th century mean for the CONUS, and 16 months since the last month below the 1991-2020 mean.

Ah yes, the famous 1919 heat wave where Orlando had 2 weeks more 90F days than anywhere else. The same year where Pensacola registered 4 days at or above 90F, Miami recorded 6 - yes 6, and Key West a paltry 21. These numbers are unthinkable today. Did you ever stop to think that perhaps century-old local observations, with questionable exposure, rooftop siting, nonstandard instruments, observer changes, missing data, and who knows what else, should not be treated as sacred, apples-to-apples climate records? Or do you just repeat the one raw number that flatters your narrative while ignoring the rest of the statewide data screaming that something may be off?

Note: They also reported a third yesterday, so that's up to at least 5 from this system. Coupled with the 6 earlier in the month, that's a pretty hefty number. Fortunately, nothing too strong.

Especially impressive for daytime highs with several locations having a record hot first 2 weeks of June, including Islip and Newark. Looks like a little break coming in, but I do not think we are done with heat. Personally, I think these summer cancel calls are way too early.