TheClimateChanger

Interesting look here. 10 warmest Novembers, minus 2009-2010 (significant ENSO mismatch) and 1913-1914 (age). Rather similar to CPC's outlook, except they are a bit more robust with the cold extension to the southeast.

The current three warmest Novembers are 1999 (+5.14F), 2016 (+4.98F), and 2001 (+4.42F). 2025 looks like it will be in the mix with these years. Rolling the 3 warmest Novembers forward through meteorological winter, here's what that analog map looks like. 1999-2000 is 3rd warmest of all time, 2016-2017 is 9th warmest, and 2001-2002 is 10th warmest.

I thought there was supposed to be a big cold snap around Thanksgiving?

Looking specifically at Erie, the low end GLERL projection would bring lake levels down to 173.78 meters by late winter, which has only been reached or exceeded twice since the mid 1960s on a monthly average - 173.78m in March 2003 & 173.75m in February 2011. That's going with the low-end projection, so it might not happen, but certainly a stark contrast from the near record high levels of 2019 & 2020.

Do you think the atmosphere is still capable of producing 4" of snow in a single day at locations like New York and Pittsburgh (see below)? I noticed Pittsburgh has obliterated its longest stretch without 4" of snow, and this includes data from the downtown station that was a few hundred feet lower in elevation with a seasonal snowfall average of about ~12 inches less than the airport. So this is completely unprecedented since at least the 1870s. I have to wonder if the 40N parallel is simply too for south to see such heavy snow with the current atmospheric conditions? Maybe NYC will fare a little better being on the coast?

It's been an incredible 1,348 days since the last calendar day with 4" of snow. You have to think eventually that breaks, or do you guys think it is no longer possible to see 4" of snow in a single day at PIT?

https://twitter.com/CIRA_CSU/status/1990908932274225661?s=20

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1031 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025 PAC059-125-160345- /O.CON.KPBZ.TO.W.0024.000000T0000Z-251116T0345Z/ Washington PA-Greene PA- 1031 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM EST FOR SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTIES... At 1031 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Waynesburg, moving east at 45 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This dangerous storm will be near... Jefferson Boro around 1040 PM EST. Fairdale around 1045 PM EST. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Clarksville, Amity, Deemston, Carmichaels, Rices Landing, Marianna, Centerville, and Nemacolin. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! Please report severe weather by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using X @NWSPITTSBURGH. && LAT...LON 4000 8040 4010 8035 4002 7992 3999 7995 4001 7997 4001 8000 3999 7999 3998 8001 3995 8000 3995 7996 3992 7992 3985 7996 TIME...MOT...LOC 0331Z 292DEG 37KT 3998 8023 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN $$ Rackley

Yes, it's warmer today. But the 1930s were quite warm too, especially in North America. So warm, in fact, that certain people like to constantly bring them up to "rebut" climate change. A few notable cold snaps don't change that fact. New York City's moving 30-year mean annual snowfall was pretty steady between 32 and 34 inches until the mid 1920s - and that's generally with measuring the new fallen depth, not snowboards and 6 hourly or more frequent measurements. So, the "snow drought" from the late 1920s and early/mid 1930s was certainly a big departure from the long-term climatology.

And the current snow drought is WAY more impressive than that one. Maybe there weren't any 4" snows, but there were certainly more 1" snows. NYC has seen ~50% less snowfall over the last 3 years than it did from 1930-1932. Even the 3-year period from 2022-2024 saw a little more than 10% less than 1930-32. Note the 1869 value shown below is for 1 year only.

The entire premise is incorrect. There was plenty of climate change back then. CO2 concentrations were already up to 310 ppm by the early 1930s, compared to a pre-industrial mean of 270-280 ppm. And methane was already up to ~1100 ppb, from 700 ppb pre-industrial average. CO2 follows a logarithmic curve, so the amount of warming from the early/mid 19th century to the 1930s would be about the same amount of warming that has occurred since 2000 - actually more significant when you factor in methane concentrations. There is nothing in the history of New York City to suggest that the snow drought during that period would have occurred in the absence of human caused warming.

The current (2026) Farmer's Almanac will be the final publication after more than two centuries. No more Farmer's Almanac outlooks after this winter. End of an Era: Farmers’ Almanac Announces Final Publication - Farmers' Almanac - Plan Your Day. Grow Your Life.

Yes, indeed. Couple comments on the AMS journal article I linked to. The authors cite the prior record statewide storm total snowfall as 42.0" at Gratiot, Ohio, from April 19-22, 1901. 42.0" of snow was also observed by the observer at Canton, Ohio, from that same storm, although it looks like those observations have never been digitized. Additionally, 44.0" was reported at Steubenville, Ohio, from November 24-29, 1950, during the Great Appalachian Storm of 1950, which is probably the true record besides this 1996 LES storm. Interestingly, they conclude that a snow depth of 48" reported by a nearby observer was incorrect and inflated. One would think the more reasonable conclusion is the snowfall amounts were underreported due to the infrequency of measurements. Also, as further evidence of inflation, the author points out that only 1" remained on the ground at the end of the month at that site, while 6" was observed at the other site. However, this could easily be explained by one location being in a sunnier and more exposed location, or by the other spot receiving more snow the remainder of the month. It sounds like another 7 or 8" fell there even after this storm. Either way, that is an impressive duration of snow cover for the month of November - even for the "snow belt" of Ohio.

Here is the final snowfall map for the lake effect / lake enhanced and upslope snowfall event:

Veteran's Day Lake Effect Storm of 1996 was a crazy one, although that lasted multiple days. Nearly SIX FEET of snow in Chardon, Ohio! Much more impressive than the current event. A Record Ohio Snowfall during 9–14 November 1996 in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Volume 80 Issue 6 (1999)