TheClimateChanger

https://twitter.com/CIRA_CSU/status/1990908932274225661?s=20

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1031 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025 PAC059-125-160345- /O.CON.KPBZ.TO.W.0024.000000T0000Z-251116T0345Z/ Washington PA-Greene PA- 1031 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM EST FOR SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTIES... At 1031 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Waynesburg, moving east at 45 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This dangerous storm will be near... Jefferson Boro around 1040 PM EST. Fairdale around 1045 PM EST. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Clarksville, Amity, Deemston, Carmichaels, Rices Landing, Marianna, Centerville, and Nemacolin. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! Please report severe weather by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using X @NWSPITTSBURGH. && LAT...LON 4000 8040 4010 8035 4002 7992 3999 7995 4001 7997 4001 8000 3999 7999 3998 8001 3995 8000 3995 7996 3992 7992 3985 7996 TIME...MOT...LOC 0331Z 292DEG 37KT 3998 8023 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN $$ Rackley

Yes, it's warmer today. But the 1930s were quite warm too, especially in North America. So warm, in fact, that certain people like to constantly bring them up to "rebut" climate change. A few notable cold snaps don't change that fact. New York City's moving 30-year mean annual snowfall was pretty steady between 32 and 34 inches until the mid 1920s - and that's generally with measuring the new fallen depth, not snowboards and 6 hourly or more frequent measurements. So, the "snow drought" from the late 1920s and early/mid 1930s was certainly a big departure from the long-term climatology.

And the current snow drought is WAY more impressive than that one. Maybe there weren't any 4" snows, but there were certainly more 1" snows. NYC has seen ~50% less snowfall over the last 3 years than it did from 1930-1932. Even the 3-year period from 2022-2024 saw a little more than 10% less than 1930-32. Note the 1869 value shown below is for 1 year only.

The entire premise is incorrect. There was plenty of climate change back then. CO2 concentrations were already up to 310 ppm by the early 1930s, compared to a pre-industrial mean of 270-280 ppm. And methane was already up to ~1100 ppb, from 700 ppb pre-industrial average. CO2 follows a logarithmic curve, so the amount of warming from the early/mid 19th century to the 1930s would be about the same amount of warming that has occurred since 2000 - actually more significant when you factor in methane concentrations. There is nothing in the history of New York City to suggest that the snow drought during that period would have occurred in the absence of human caused warming.

The current (2026) Farmer's Almanac will be the final publication after more than two centuries. No more Farmer's Almanac outlooks after this winter. End of an Era: Farmers’ Almanac Announces Final Publication - Farmers' Almanac - Plan Your Day. Grow Your Life.

Yes, indeed. Couple comments on the AMS journal article I linked to. The authors cite the prior record statewide storm total snowfall as 42.0" at Gratiot, Ohio, from April 19-22, 1901. 42.0" of snow was also observed by the observer at Canton, Ohio, from that same storm, although it looks like those observations have never been digitized. Additionally, 44.0" was reported at Steubenville, Ohio, from November 24-29, 1950, during the Great Appalachian Storm of 1950, which is probably the true record besides this 1996 LES storm. Interestingly, they conclude that a snow depth of 48" reported by a nearby observer was incorrect and inflated. One would think the more reasonable conclusion is the snowfall amounts were underreported due to the infrequency of measurements. Also, as further evidence of inflation, the author points out that only 1" remained on the ground at the end of the month at that site, while 6" was observed at the other site. However, this could easily be explained by one location being in a sunnier and more exposed location, or by the other spot receiving more snow the remainder of the month. It sounds like another 7 or 8" fell there even after this storm. Either way, that is an impressive duration of snow cover for the month of November - even for the "snow belt" of Ohio.

Here is the final snowfall map for the lake effect / lake enhanced and upslope snowfall event:

Veteran's Day Lake Effect Storm of 1996 was a crazy one, although that lasted multiple days. Nearly SIX FEET of snow in Chardon, Ohio! Much more impressive than the current event. A Record Ohio Snowfall during 9–14 November 1996 in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Volume 80 Issue 6 (1999)

Certainly hasn't seemed that way with the historical snowfall drought in Cleveland and many other Great Lakes locations:

Doing a little better on the 10-year, and anything more than 2.3" of snow by December 31 would shift the Big Apple further down the list. Currently, in 8th place for least snowy 10-year periods excluding periods with partial data (since 1866-1875). A rough go of it in the late 80s an early 90s, but certainly moving up the ranks now. And with a relatively snowy 2016-2018 period, with a whopping 110.3" of snow, or more than half of the snow in the last 10 years, we will need to throw up some BIG numbers to avoid dropping lower to replace those snowy years. Indeed, the next 3 years would need to average nearly 30" of snow per year just to avoid plummeting to the least snowy 10-year period in 2019-2028. If the next 3 years are instead relatively unsnowy, we could be in a situation where we will be poised to absolutely SHATTER the 10-year futility record by 2028.

As we head into winter, it's a good time to rewind and recognize the ongoing HISTORIC snowfall drought in the Big Apple. Currently, the last 3 years are the least snowy such period on record, with just 22.7 inches. Central Park would need to see at least 5.5" of snow before the end of the year to surpass 1997-1999's paltry tally of 28.1 inches. Interestingly, 1869 had more snowfall with just 1 calendar year's worth of data, so even though data does not exist for 1867 or 1868, we can say this is the least snowy 3-year period through at least 1867-1869. Given the so-called little ice age ended in the middle of the 19th century, I think it highly unlikely there would have been a less snowy 3-year stretch prior to that date. So this is probably the least snowy 3 years in New York City history. Looking at the 5-year snow drought, not much better. Excluding period's with partial data (1865-1869 & 1866-1870, interestingly, the period 1867-1871, with just 3 years is not among the least snowy), only 1928-1932 and 1927-1931 reported less snowfall. Snowfall measurement techniques have been amended since that era, so they might have been somewhat higher if measured with today's procedures - perhaps 15-20 percent, per NCAR. An additional 2.8" of snowfall is needed to surpass current 3rd place (2020-2024). In any event, clearly the least snowy 5 year period in anyone's lifetime on here. Very impressive.

50th anniversary of the infamous wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald. Also, the "White Hurricane" of 1913 was winding down on this date and that wrecked a number of ships. Very deadly day on Superior historically.

Will be interesting to see where the period 2021-2025 falls on the 5-year cumulative snow futility list. Currently, this is the second least snowy 5-year period on record, behind the 5-year period ending 12/31/2024 (2020-2024). BOS would need 16.1" of snow by the end of December to move out 2nd place for 5-year futility. On the plus, maybe we've turned the corner since 2021-2025 is guaranteed to be snowier than 2020-2024 even if no additional snow falls before the EOY.

October was 0.8F above normal at Pittsburgh.

Very impressive. Certainly keeping an eye on the Great Lakes, as water levels continue to descend, e.g. lowest October levels on Michigan-Huron since 2012. Won't break the record lows of January 2013 this winter, but still quite the fall from the record highs of 2019-20.

Wow, that 136.8F annual maximum!

What happens in November, the winter will remember. That’s a very old saying, often repeated by Big Joe Bastardi back in the day.

Incredible. What impact, if any, does this trend have on your thoughts for the upcoming winter?

I wish we had hurricane and tropical cyclone statistics from the last glacial maximum. It wouldn't surprise if there were years with few, if any, storms, at least in the North Atlantic. I just don't know how high the SSTs were for much of the region. Probably greatly suppressed where storms were capable of forming, how intense they could get, and also the length of the summer.