TheClimateChanger

3.5-4.5 inches in an hour...

Flash Flood Warning PAC003-007-019-125-129-WVC029-052315- /O.NEW.KPBZ.FF.W.0031.260705T2022Z-260705T2315Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 422 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026 The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Allegheny County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Northwestern Washington County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Northwestern Westmoreland County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Southeastern Butler County in west central Pennsylvania... Southern Beaver County in western Pennsylvania... Hancock County in northern West Virginia... * Until 715 PM EDT. * At 422 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. The expected rainfall rate is 3.5 to 4.5 inches in 1 hour. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Pittsburgh, Penn Hills, Ross Township, McCandless Township, Monroeville, Moon Township, Franklin Park, Aliquippa, Shaler Township, Plum, North Side Pittsburgh, Baldwin, Murrysville and Hampton Township. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads. Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely. && LAT...LON 4064 8052 4066 8052 4068 8015 4068 7969 4067 7969 4067 7968 4039 7969 4040 8053 4064 8053 FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...3.5-4.5 INCHES IN 1 HOUR $$ Lupo

Looks like some very intense rainfall rates with some of these storms this afternoon. Hoping the worst steers clear of my backyard.

Looks like there is a real chance for this month to go into the books as the hottest month on record for the CONUS. I know it's very early, but the NBM would have us near 3F above the 1991-2020 mean by the 13th, with model guidance suggesting an even hotter pattern developing around that time. Will be interesting to watch. The current record dates all the way back to 1936 (oldest of any month) at 76.77F, just a hair above 2012's 76.73F mean. These are 2.38F and 2.34F above the 1991-2020 mean.

Don, rankings for average high temperature for the season to date (June 1 to July 4). One of these is certainly not like the others - and it's not because of a longer period of record.

Happy Independence Day all! Some thoughts on this holiday evening:

Officially, the first 95F since 2018 today.

One regional caveat: 1977 was not warm at all in western Pennsylvania. It technically ranks as Pittsburgh’s 2nd-coldest summer, though several older downtown-era summers would likely have been colder under today’s airport siting/elevation. It was also the 7th-coldest at Erie. That blistering July heat somehow largely skipped over this part of the region. Pittsburgh topped out at just 91°F, and Erie only reached 90°F all summer.

Yes, not fun. One correction - it was July 5th, 1972, not July 3rd. Knew it was near the 4th, just mixed up the day.

Jeff's one of my favorite meteorologists, but I don't know where he's getting this El Nino supercharges heat domes idea. Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems like developing strong El Ninos have almost always brought cooler, wetter conditions. Case in point, look at 1972. On this date, the HIGHS were commonly 55-59 across northeast Ohio and western Pennsylvania. Can you imagine if that happened today?

I know the response will be, “Well, that’s just Cleveland.” But this has not been isolated to Cleveland at all. The magnitude looks comparable across much of the region. For example, I saw someone from Detroit downplaying the event. Barring enough thunderstorms or rain-cooled air to meaningfully alter today’s outcome, Detroit looks poised for its second-warmest four-day stretch since 1953, behind only a comparable period in 2011. And that 1953 benchmark was observed at City Airport. While there is a substantial data gap there, this stretch appears likely to be the warmest at City Airport since 1936—warmer than both 1953 and 2011. I get that Cleveland and Detroit have had hotter individual days and worse heat waves before. But this strikes me as a legitimately high-end regional heat and humidity event, especially for early July. I am honestly surprised by how little appreciation it seems to be getting.

Am I the only one who has been impressed by this heat wave? It feels like it has been oddly downplayed. Assuming Cleveland Hopkins Airport reaches the forecast high of 95°F today, and the temperature does not drop below the current daily low, the June 30–July 3 period would average 86.3°F. It has already reached 94°F, so not far under that forecast value. That would be hotter than every four-day stretch in the Cleveland record except the periods ending July 11, 12, 13, and 14, 1936, and September 3, 1953. It would also make this Cleveland’s first three-day stretch of 95°F+ since 1988. And it has not just been one hot afternoon. On June 30, Cleveland reached 93°F, the second-warmest reading for the date. The low of 78°F set a daily record and was the third-warmest June low on record. The 85.5°F daily mean was also a record. Then came July 1: a record high of 97°F, Cleveland’s hottest day since July 17, 2012. The 87.0°F daily mean set a record and was only 2°F below the all-time warmest daily mean on record. July 2 reached 96°F, the second-warmest high for the date and just 1°F below the daily record. The 86.0°F mean was likewise second warmest for the date, and the daily records for that date are from 1872 when the weather station had a warm-biased window exposure. Today, July 3, the low has only fallen to 78°F thus far, yet another daily record, and just 3°F shy of Cleveland’s all-time warmest low. Cleveland had already reached 94°F by 2 PM local time, and a forecast high of 95°F would yield an 86.5°F daily mean, another record. The humidity has been just as remarkable. IEM hourly data, extending back to 1931, show four June hourly heat-index records set or tied on June 30, along with six June hourly dewpoint records. At least seven July hourly dewpoint records have already been set or tied as well. Cleveland also observed a dewpoint of 80°F or higher—only the fourth day with such a reading in the IEM hourly record since 1931. Maybe this is not the most historic heat wave ever in every respect, but several daily records, near-monthly records, extraordinary dewpoints, a rare 80°F dewpoint, and very little nighttime relief seems pretty impressive to me. If we were looking at a four-day cold spell that ranked behind only a 1936 cold wave and one 1953 period, with several daily records, near-monthly records, record-level hourly departures, this forum would be hyping it nonstop.

Wow! Could this be the hottest July on record for the CONUS? If the NBM is to be believed, we could be near 3F above the 1991-2020 means by July 12/13, staring down a potential monster heat ridge mid-month? The existing record is 1936, at +2.38F, followed closely by 2012 at +2.34F. This seems hard to believe with a developing Strong/Super El Nino?

Well, I'm more concerned about the Canadian wildfires smoking out the celebrations, if the HRRR is correct. Just noting the air quality could be even worse when you combine that with fireworks.

This would be interesting if it were to occur. HRRR suggesting some degraded air quality from wildfire smoke settling near the surface in parts of New England tomorrow. Add in firework smoke, and it could be even worse I'd imagine?

Probably safe to say this will be the hottest of the summer? Can’t imagine it getting this hot again with so much smoke just over the border? I mean this is just insane.

Damn, looks like Canada forgot to rake their forests again!

Official highs so far: JFK, EWR, and LGA: 102F NYC: 100F

Also note sea ice extent (coverage of 15% or greater) versus area.

Especially amazing when you consider some of the warm Marches of that era (e.g., 2012).

Wow! 114°F heat index!

97F at Cleveland. Hottest overall since 2012 (98F), and matches 2012 for hottest by this date in the year since 1988. Toledo topped out at 99F, but it hasn’t been as long since it’s been that hot there. 2024 topped out at 99F & 2022 at 100F. I think Toronto, Ont. reached at least 98F. Bet it’s bet awhile since they’ve seen that temperature.

Hello darkness, my old friend.