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TheClimateChanger

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  1. TheClimateChanger
    Impressive heat. Highest in the month of July since 2012 at many sites, including Milwaukee and Flint. We will see if O'Hare can tick up to 97F and that would also be the case there. We have seen a couple of warmer episodes in August (perhaps June?), but this will be the hottest July temperatures in 14 years at a number of sites.
  2. TheClimateChanger
    MKE was 97F at the last METAR observation. Up to 98F/99F now, per 5 minute observations. Last ob was 99F. Due to rounding probably only 98F, but definitely above 97F.
  3. TheClimateChanger
    Looks legit by the way, maybe a tad warm. Checked PWS stations around there and most were in the 100-103F range, even right to the shore.
  4. TheClimateChanger
    Wow! 104F now. Really mixing well there - downsloping effects? Dews are cratering with gusty west winds.
  5. TheClimateChanger
    Up to 102F at Oscoda, Michigan. Toronto, Ont. was up to 97F at the top of the hour.
  6. TheClimateChanger
    Looks like a smokemaggeddon scenario on Wednesday if the HRRR is right?
  7. TheClimateChanger
    Wow, this looks quite bad.
  8. TheClimateChanger
    Will have to keep a close eye on the path of this wildfire smoke. RAP suggesting some surface smoke on Wednesday, densest near the fires, but extending across the Great Lakes.
  9. TheClimateChanger
    Looks like maybe more surface smoke on Wednesday if the RAP is correct. Will have to watch out for this, as this could hold back high temperatures some.
  10. TheClimateChanger
    Looks like most of it stays aloft tomorrow.
  11. TheClimateChanger
    Going to be getting real smoky soon.
  12. TheClimateChanger
  13. TheClimateChanger
    This is absolutely relevant to the ENSO discussion. U.S. weather is influenced by El Niño, and this entire thread is speculating about what it may mean for winter. But it is summertime right now, Niño 3.4 anomalies are already off the chart, and SST anomalies are nearing strong El Niño territory. The possible effects do not wait for December to begin.
  14. TheClimateChanger
    Incidentally, contemporary observers in 1936 did not simply pretend weather history began with the official national series. So I highly doubt anyone in 1936 was objecting that it was not really the hottest because the national record did not reach back to 1776. The chief of the Iowa Weather and Crop Bureau described July 1936 as the hottest in at least 117 years, drawing on regional observations extending back to 1819. The official CONUS record begins in 1895 because that is when coverage becomes adequate for a consistent national average — not because no weather observations existed earlier. We have scattered instrumental records from the eighteenth century and a rapidly expanding national network by the mid-nineteenth century. No, we cannot calculate an apples-to-apples CONUS average for 1776. But given the magnitude and enormous geographic footprint of July 1936, it is exceedingly difficult to believe that a still-hotter national July occurred in the preceding century without leaving a conspicuous instrumental and historical trail. “Hottest on record” is entirely correct — and 1936 was very likely exceptional over a considerably longer period.
  15. TheClimateChanger
    It says hottest month "on record" - official NOAA/NCEI records date to 1895.
  16. TheClimateChanger
    I made this nifty graph to track the ongoing push for what could become the hottest month on record for the contiguous United States. Through July 10, PRISM had the national temperature anomaly at roughly +2.12°F relative to 1991–2020. Based on observed temperatures and the current NBM forecast, my provisional estimate rises to around +2.60°F through July 21. Obviously, that figure remains subject to change as observations come in and forecasts evolve. The historical significance would be difficult to overstate. July 1936 still holds the national record at +2.38°F and represents the oldest surviving warm-month temperature record in U.S. weather history. July 2012 came extraordinarily close at +2.34°F, but fell just short. So this is not merely a run at another monthly record. It is a serious challenge to one of the most famous and durable benchmarks in the American climate record—one that has stood for 90 years.
  17. TheClimateChanger
    Decent chance for hottest month on record for the Lower 48, both by pop-weighted CDDs and areal average.
  18. TheClimateChanger
    I was speculating on whether this month could become the hottest on record for the CONUS. Modeling continues to support. If the NBM is correct, we would be at or above 2.5F (above 1991-2020) by the 18th. Full month record is 2.38F in 1936, followed by 2.34F in 2012. CFS, EPS and GEFS all have us above the 2011 record for population-weighted CDDs.
  19. TheClimateChanger
    Incredibly impressive on the YTD for CONUS-wide average. Nearly 3F above the 1991-2020 mean. With Nino heating for the second half of the year, you have to think there is a real chance for warmest year on record. Current record is +2.21F (relative to 91-20 average), set in 2024.
  20. TheClimateChanger
    Will be interesting to see how accurate this is. The 50-member mean from the EPS is 90.1F for the next 15 days for the Twin Cities. That would rank among the hottest mid-July periods on record.
  21. TheClimateChanger
    2026 is definitely going to be one for the record books in many places. Wow. And IEM has a cold bias compared to NCEI, because I don't think they homogenize.
  22. TheClimateChanger
    Impressive heat at the Buffalo intake "crib" - water temperature up to 75F, tying the record for the date set in 2012, 2002 & 1966. The mean of 1927-2025 is 69F.
  23. TheClimateChanger
    Current State of Sea Ice Cover | Earth
  24. TheClimateChanger
    This is crazy. I didn't see anything about this until someone in the NE Ohio thread mentioned.
  25. TheClimateChanger
    At least, it wasn't this bad! Wow, can you imagine the destruction if this happened over Pittsburgh?
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