TheClimateChanger

For the season as a whole (December & January), NCEI's nClimDiv had us at 6th warmest. Max temps have been running warmer in general for several months, which is a departure from the usual case. For max temps, December & January were 4th warmest for the CONUS. Interestingly, the US Climate Reference Network has this as the warmest December & January (since 2005 & using nClimDiv for 1895-2004), as does the US48 TLT satellite-based anomaly from UAH. By my calculation, February would need to check in around 5.8F above normal to set a new record warm winter for the CONUS or about 3.7F for second warmest. The latter is certainly plausible. I mean the former is possible as well but would require some bigtime positive anomalies (full-blown Feb. 2017/March 2012 torching). I think max temps have the better odds to finish as warmest on record, not sure we get there in the means. It looks like a lock for warmest on record for USCRN (all rural, pristine sited stations with better equipment - e.g., redundant temp. sensors) and in the UAH satellite record. Looks like a new max temp record in the official NCEI records is also a lock. Just need to finish around +3.6F for that one, and we're near +5.2F for the first 10 days (PRISM) with that number likely to climb in coming days.

I'm extremely impressed by this start to February, particularly for high temperatures. Unusually large diurnal ranges are keeping the mean temperatures in check to an extent, but max temps have been soaring. With the current forecast, odds look very good for a top 10 warm February nationally, perhaps top 5. Average high temps are well within striking distance of a number two finish (1954's +7.34F over 1991-2020 mean would be a stretch).

Current 25-year average for March is currently 5.9":

I don't know how you had that date memorized. Anyways, up to 60F now (-5F to +55F).

Hard to believe it was -5F yesterday morning! Must be one of the bigger day-to-day swings on record.

Up to 50F now. First over 40F reading since January 14th (48F), and first 50F since the 13th.

One of the anti-Weathergamis is not like the others! You can see how the relative lack of variability in the summer versus the winter leads to many more unique combinations occurring in the wintertime than the summer. Spring and fall, of course, are more changeable in general, so they have the lowest number of common high/low pairings. Interesting data!

If you follow me enough, you know I like to include USCRN data as well. We built a parallel climate network with pristinely-sited, rural weather stations, including features such as multiple redundant temperature sensors, but it's rarely discussed. For context, this was largely constructed based on criticisms such as the ones presented frequently in this forum that the "official" numbers were inflated due to urban heating and/or adjustments. Of course, the reality is USCRN has consistently exhibited MORE warming than nClimDiv in the period of overlap. Over the last several months, the divergence has grown significantly. Heck, if you follow me closely enough, you probably know I even have a theory as to why that is... Anyways, USCRN agrees with the satellite data, finding this to be the WARMEST winter to date on record for the CONUS. The two month anomaly is up to +2.705F, compared to 2023-2024's anomaly of +2.630F in the USCRN dataset.

Some more on the winter anomalies:

Weathergami for NYC on Saturday. First 27/6 combo on record.

BVI has been below .75 mile visibility since 6:15, down to .25 mile at 7:55 am. https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KBVI.html

At the worst, I couldn’t even see my neighbor’s outdoor lighting. Visibility must have been 50-100 yards.

It’s absolutely insane here right now. Near zero visibility.

Weatherbug was showing a couple strikes near New Castle earlier.

Lightning has been detected in the snow squall.

Lol, not the same person at all.

Thanks for the update, Don. Wild start to February. Almost exactly "normal" through the first 4 days, but actually 20F warmer than normal in the northern Rockies and 20F colder than normal in parts of the Eastern U.S. Very spring-like 73F in Rapid City, SD yesterday (2F shy of February monthly record high), while the deep freeze continues in the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.

Possibly, but I'm also factoring in the fact that we are aging and our remaining lifetime is less. So most of don't have another 50 years or more.

Wow, that's quite impressive IMO, considering 1991-2020 was, by far, the warmest climatological normal period in recorded history. And the last 20 years are outpacing them by 0.6-1F across the board. One would think the warmer norms would tilt the scale towards more cooler than normal years, but, in fact, one finds the opposite phenomenon. Very intriguing.

Surprised to see some areas of freezing drizzle on my way into work today.

You're welcome, Bob. I didn't bring it up. Just think we should be accurate if we're going to claim the forecasts were wrong for that period. We have a lot of weather forecasters and meteorologists on here, and it's bad enough to be slammed for a missed forecast, let alone forecasts that were correct.

Yeah, now that I think about it... I think it's there CDAS or whatever that shows the past anomalies that always seems to show an anomalously cooler area over Lake Superior. But that might be a problem with the lake temperature dataset.

Shouldn't be that dramatic of a discrepancy though... the 1991-2020 normals are generally ~0.5F, maybe 1F warmer, than the 1981-2010 normals for most places. After all, they share 20 years.

It looks like they fixed whatever always led to a big negative departure over Lake Superior.

I don't think this snow will be any match for the strong February sun angle.