TheClimateChanger

This is absolutely relevant to the ENSO discussion. U.S. weather is influenced by El Niño, and this entire thread is speculating about what it may mean for winter. But it is summertime right now, Niño 3.4 anomalies are already off the chart, and SST anomalies are nearing strong El Niño territory. The possible effects do not wait for December to begin.

Incidentally, contemporary observers in 1936 did not simply pretend weather history began with the official national series. So I highly doubt anyone in 1936 was objecting that it was not really the hottest because the national record did not reach back to 1776. The chief of the Iowa Weather and Crop Bureau described July 1936 as the hottest in at least 117 years, drawing on regional observations extending back to 1819. The official CONUS record begins in 1895 because that is when coverage becomes adequate for a consistent national average — not because no weather observations existed earlier. We have scattered instrumental records from the eighteenth century and a rapidly expanding national network by the mid-nineteenth century. No, we cannot calculate an apples-to-apples CONUS average for 1776. But given the magnitude and enormous geographic footprint of July 1936, it is exceedingly difficult to believe that a still-hotter national July occurred in the preceding century without leaving a conspicuous instrumental and historical trail. “Hottest on record” is entirely correct — and 1936 was very likely exceptional over a considerably longer period.

It says hottest month "on record" - official NOAA/NCEI records date to 1895.

I made this nifty graph to track the ongoing push for what could become the hottest month on record for the contiguous United States. Through July 10, PRISM had the national temperature anomaly at roughly +2.12°F relative to 1991–2020. Based on observed temperatures and the current NBM forecast, my provisional estimate rises to around +2.60°F through July 21. Obviously, that figure remains subject to change as observations come in and forecasts evolve. The historical significance would be difficult to overstate. July 1936 still holds the national record at +2.38°F and represents the oldest surviving warm-month temperature record in U.S. weather history. July 2012 came extraordinarily close at +2.34°F, but fell just short. So this is not merely a run at another monthly record. It is a serious challenge to one of the most famous and durable benchmarks in the American climate record—one that has stood for 90 years.

Decent chance for hottest month on record for the Lower 48, both by pop-weighted CDDs and areal average.

I was speculating on whether this month could become the hottest on record for the CONUS. Modeling continues to support. If the NBM is correct, we would be at or above 2.5F (above 1991-2020) by the 18th. Full month record is 2.38F in 1936, followed by 2.34F in 2012. CFS, EPS and GEFS all have us above the 2011 record for population-weighted CDDs.

Incredibly impressive on the YTD for CONUS-wide average. Nearly 3F above the 1991-2020 mean. With Nino heating for the second half of the year, you have to think there is a real chance for warmest year on record. Current record is +2.21F (relative to 91-20 average), set in 2024.

Will be interesting to see how accurate this is. The 50-member mean from the EPS is 90.1F for the next 15 days for the Twin Cities. That would rank among the hottest mid-July periods on record.

2026 is definitely going to be one for the record books in many places. Wow. And IEM has a cold bias compared to NCEI, because I don't think they homogenize.

Impressive heat at the Buffalo intake "crib" - water temperature up to 75F, tying the record for the date set in 2012, 2002 & 1966. The mean of 1927-2025 is 69F.

Current State of Sea Ice Cover | Earth

This is crazy. I didn't see anything about this until someone in the NE Ohio thread mentioned.

At least, it wasn't this bad! Wow, can you imagine the destruction if this happened over Pittsburgh?

I was just pointing out that there are two different metrics commonly reported - actual area and extent (areal coverage of 15% or greater). Both values are reported.

3.5-4.5 inches in an hour...

Flash Flood Warning PAC003-007-019-125-129-WVC029-052315- /O.NEW.KPBZ.FF.W.0031.260705T2022Z-260705T2315Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 422 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026 The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Allegheny County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Northwestern Washington County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Northwestern Westmoreland County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Southeastern Butler County in west central Pennsylvania... Southern Beaver County in western Pennsylvania... Hancock County in northern West Virginia... * Until 715 PM EDT. * At 422 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. The expected rainfall rate is 3.5 to 4.5 inches in 1 hour. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Pittsburgh, Penn Hills, Ross Township, McCandless Township, Monroeville, Moon Township, Franklin Park, Aliquippa, Shaler Township, Plum, North Side Pittsburgh, Baldwin, Murrysville and Hampton Township. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads. Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely. && LAT...LON 4064 8052 4066 8052 4068 8015 4068 7969 4067 7969 4067 7968 4039 7969 4040 8053 4064 8053 FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...3.5-4.5 INCHES IN 1 HOUR $$ Lupo

Looks like some very intense rainfall rates with some of these storms this afternoon. Hoping the worst steers clear of my backyard.

Looks like there is a real chance for this month to go into the books as the hottest month on record for the CONUS. I know it's very early, but the NBM would have us near 3F above the 1991-2020 mean by the 13th, with model guidance suggesting an even hotter pattern developing around that time. Will be interesting to watch. The current record dates all the way back to 1936 (oldest of any month) at 76.77F, just a hair above 2012's 76.73F mean. These are 2.38F and 2.34F above the 1991-2020 mean.

Don, rankings for average high temperature for the season to date (June 1 to July 4). One of these is certainly not like the others - and it's not because of a longer period of record.

Happy Independence Day all! Some thoughts on this holiday evening:

Officially, the first 95F since 2018 today.

One regional caveat: 1977 was not warm at all in western Pennsylvania. It technically ranks as Pittsburgh’s 2nd-coldest summer, though several older downtown-era summers would likely have been colder under today’s airport siting/elevation. It was also the 7th-coldest at Erie. That blistering July heat somehow largely skipped over this part of the region. Pittsburgh topped out at just 91°F, and Erie only reached 90°F all summer.

Yes, not fun. One correction - it was July 5th, 1972, not July 3rd. Knew it was near the 4th, just mixed up the day.

Jeff's one of my favorite meteorologists, but I don't know where he's getting this El Nino supercharges heat domes idea. Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems like developing strong El Ninos have almost always brought cooler, wetter conditions. Case in point, look at 1972. On this date, the HIGHS were commonly 55-59 across northeast Ohio and western Pennsylvania. Can you imagine if that happened today?