George001

Although I am more optimistic about this threat than most, I do agree that the MECS/HECS solutions are off the table. I wouldn’t expect more than 6-12 inches for the jackpot areas even if everything breaks right. Why? Although the western ridge axis is in an ideal spot, it’s significantly less amplified than it was in setups like late Jan 2022, late Jan 2015, late Dec 2010, etc. But you can’t write off a moderate event, just can’t do it. Even if things don’t look great 2 days out, remember the first storm in Jan 2022? Guidance was fairly weak with that even the night before the storm.

Yep. The thing about the Navy is it has a known SE/progressive bias. So when it’s the most amped that’s a huge red flag. I still want to see more improvements from other guidance before I jump the gun, but it is way too early to write this off. I like the large scale players, the western ridge axis is centered over Montana which is ideal for east coast cyclogenesis. There is a high to the north in the 1030s, that’s a strong high. We are still 5 days out, that’s a long time in weather. Don’t expect a truly high end outcome, but it wouldn’t take massive changes in guidance to get moderate snows for my area.

Yeah we aren’t getting 2 feet from this but it’s way too early to give up on a decent storm. We have gotten moderate events from worse setups. This isn’t far away from being something decent for us.

It’s a similar setup to Jan 2022. Ensembles have a signal, too far out for OPs so I don’t really care that they aren’t showing a storm.

miller B on the gfs for the 2nd low

PDO has risen from below 3 in October to -1.63 now. No, it’s not going to turn positive this winter. But if this warming trend in the PDO region continues it may only be weakly negative by Feb.

From @SnowLover22 on the Mid Atlantic forum: “PDO trending upwards the first half of December. @psuhoffman what is your target value out of curosity. If I am understanding the PDO correctly, the general "trough pattern" over the North Western Pacific Ocean that has been ongoing and forecast on the models should act to continue to help cause the PDO Index to rise.” …. That’s a significant rise from Oct-Dec. It’s still negative enough it won’t save Dec and probably Jan too, but this could be a big deal come Feb-Mar if it keeps rising.

I’m not even sure it matters too much whether or not an official Nina develops. We could easily see a Nina CONUS wide temp profile even with a -0.3 or 0.4 ONI for Jan-Mar. The question is where will the gradient set up?

Seasonal guidance is still transitioning to more of a Nina temp distribution Jan-Mar with a cold north/warm south look. I’m not entirely sure it plays out like that, but it’s really not a bad look for the east. I really wouldn’t hate to see a weak Nina develop. It’s a good thing ENSO is weak because there coldest anomalies are over regions 3.4 and 4, not 3 and 1.2. If we did get a mod-strong Nina we would likely have been looking at a 11-12 or 22-23 redux.

The interesting thing is this really isn’t a La Niña pattern with the Aleutian troughing, that’s a Nino pattern if anything. I do think we could see some additional Nina features show up deeper in the winter (I expect this) but even if a Nina does develop it will be weak so not a major pattern driver like it was in 07-08, 10-11, 20-21 etc.

I know it hasn’t snowed yet for the coast, but I’m feeling pretty good about how things are going for this winter. It hasn’t been an endless torch like last December, we had a cold first week, we are currently in a relaxation period and it is expected to cool off again late month with some signs that we will be entering a stormy gradient pattern. The storm track has been too far NW for my area, with storms taking the hugger/inside runner track rather than off the coast. It has been cold, warm up rain, cold warm up rain rather than just warm like last year. Although frustrating at times, the storm track hasn’t been AS far NW as say 22-23. Often the storm track shifts south in Jan-Feb. A gradient pattern with normal temps and well AN precip can be a very snowy one for Massachusetts. I know there is a lot of doom and gloom on other boards and subforums, but I’m not seeing it for New England.

I’m a bit skeptical of the big Jan idea, looks like the 13-14 analog may have been a year early. So far I like the 12-13 analog, which did torch in Jan. My thoughts are that the strong PV will cause some issues in Jan, but come Feb we will see it weaken a bit and the storm track will come south a bit. The latest CFS illustrates this idea well with AN temps in Jan up to the Canadian border, where as Feb has normal temps north of NYC. Both Jan and Feb have well AN precip. The Jan pattern looks stormy but with ptype risks outside of NNE. I’m thinking Feb will be a very snowy month in Massachusetts.

It’s not a La Niña, it’s cold neutral. Even other non ONI indices indicate a weak event at best, so I would not expect ENSO to be a big driver this year. I actually have the opposite view, I’m expecting a lot of western troughing the rest of Dec well into Jan. The cold snap only looks to be a 7-10 day event, with the warmth lasting 2-3 weeks. If guidance is right, we would be in a warm dominated pattern. Im more optimistic about the second half of winter due to the weakening -PDO. It will still be negative, but not the degree it is now. Also, I’m skeptical of the guidance rapidly weakening the polar vortex, I’m thinking that is both overdone and it’s being rushed.

Yeah too far out

I’m a little nervous about how long the AN temps last on some of the long range guidance, especially considering the BN temps only appear to be lasting 1 week. That simply isn’t going to cut it if looking for a good winter.

It’s a bit concerning that the cold period before the relaxation appears to only be a 10 day window, I was hoping it would last another week. However, like I said before we won’t have a great idea of how things will play out until we get to the other side of the relaxation period. Are we looking at 10 days of cold/5 days of warm then back to cold? Or 10 days of cold followed by 2+ weeks of warm before a flip to cold?

18z gfs has a massive ice storm for SNE for the 10-11th

Massive ice storm for New England

No, it’s just a relaxation period after 10 days of cold. How long the relaxation period lasts before the shift back to a colder pattern will be telling in terms of what direction this winter could be going.

I’d take that and run

It’s just a relaxation period, everything remains on track.

Sounds favorable for a -EPO/+NAO pattern. This is why I believe writing this coming winter off was a mistake. Yeah with the high solar activity there was support for a strong PV/+NAO/+AO winter. The latest guidance and current conditions support this, the pattern turns +NAO fairly quickly and the PV is expected to remain very strong into Jan. The signs are there that both the +NAO and the -EPO could be kind of stubborn. If the -EPO/+NAO recurs throughout winter that bodes well for our snow prospects in New England. History that has been a very snowy pattern for New England. Less so for the Mid Atlantic.

This doesn’t feel like the last 2 winters at all. December was a torch last year, the first 2 weeks at least look legitimately cold with strong ridging out west. The pacific is much, much more favorable. I guess the risk is a 22-23 scenario? Honestly December 22 was pretty good, colder than average with plenty of storms. Honestly think we just got a bit unlucky there, roll the dice with that look and we get more snow 9/10 times. The issue with 22-23 was Jan and Feb torched when the NAO broke down. Just endless western troughing. The pacific looks a lot more favorable than Dec 2022 for this upcoming pattern. What happens after is unclear, but these next couple weeks we have a legitimate shot at significant snows.

We may not get anything out of it, but we should have at least 1 shot at a significant nor’easter before then based on the 500mb pattern advertised across guidance.

Yeah too far north this run.