George001

I have a question about thermals. I’m looking at the guidance, and despite a mid 1030s mb high to the north the temps are in the 30s for a good amount of time. Wouldn’t you expect the temps to be A LOT colder given that we have a strong high to the north?

I don’t think the setup is as bad as he’s saying, but snowman does bring up a good point about snow ratios. On the 0z Euro for most of the storm the temps are hovering around 33-34 degrees. This does support snowman’s argument that 10:1 maps are overdone, as with temps in that range ratios typically are in the 7:1-5:1 range. However, this is an INCREDIBLY difficult forecast. What if the Euro is off 2 degrees and it’s actually 31? Then you are taking maybe 12:1. On the other hand, if it’s a couple degrees warmer it’s straight up rain. With that high to the north I would think it’s more likely we tick colder than warmer.

Yep, low is more north and it deepens to the mid 980s.

Yeah the ridge is very amplified, there is also a mid 1030s high to the north.

You think we will see a deeper low? I do, I think it will deepen a lot more on future runs.

Im on board for a large scale burial inland. Im pumping the breaks a bit for Boston.

This is the best setup for the coast all year, but I am expecting the jackpot to be NW again. A lot has to go right for us to see double digits right to the coast. Like we could easily see Boston end up with 8 or so while inland gets buried even if things come together.

No, but a solid stripe of 16-20 in the jackpot zone if the trend of the storm slowing down continues.

It’s very possible, the models did trend a lot better today (Euro and Navy especially). I don’t like the look of the pattern on the long range models for Boston though, so they REALLY need to cash in here.

If the storm slows down just a few hours more than the Euro has it, this will be a large scale burial. It’s a tricky forecast though, because if it speeds up a couple hours, it’s a minor event. The middle ground solution is a high end moderate to low end major event. We need the storm to slow down so the strong high to the north has time to build in. Before anyone asks, yes I saw the 12z Navy. The Navy is way more north than the gfs is, which is a big red flag.

I am on board with this developing into a major storm. There are some timing issues, but the ingredients are there. Very amplified western ridge axis, strong southern energy, a piece diving in late trying to phase, and most importantly a mid 1030s mb high to the north trying to build in. That matters to me more than any qpf maps or snow maps, those are always wrong anyways. It’s a progressive pattern yes, but you can get big storms in progressive patterns. Gun to head, I’m taking the over on the EPS mean.

Can we get one god damn BN winter month?

Pope says no

We need the northern energy to phase in and not be a kicker.

deeper low? How much deeper are we talking here, 980s? If so, we may need to have an open mind towards 1 foot+ solutions if that does indeed happen.

Low location is good but I want a stronger low.

We have a decent chance at getting a big nina next year, after strong or super ninos Ninas often follow the year after, and often those Ninas gain a lot of strength. A good example is the 2010-2011 La Niña event. It came off a strong nino, and this Nina developed into one of the strongest La Niña events in history. That combination of a strong blocking, a strong La Niña pattern combined with an active southern jet (leftover from nino?) produced an one of the snowiest winters on record that year. That winter had 3 blizzards. I think a lot of people will be concerned about the strength of this coming La Niña. But I won’t be. La nina is not as bad of an enso state to be in as a lot of people make it out to be.

I would take 2014-2015 over everything else, but 2013-2014 is up there with 2010-2011 for my favorite winters.

I’m not entirely sure, I think around 20 or so inches?

30 is aggressive, but possible if we don’t waste more than 1 week in Feb. I’m leaning more towards the pattern remains bad until mid Feb based on current long range guidance.

Bos needs 2 warning events or one biggie to get up to 25.

Even 2022 although we got the biggie, it got warm and melted after. That wasn’t a sustained cold and snow stretch, we got big snow but it was sandwiched between warmth. Overall, it’s been mostly bad since 2016. My area getting a little lucky snow wise in winters like 2022 doesn’t change that. I want to see COLD and snow. Something like 2013-2014 even. That winter wasn’t the snowiest, it was moderately above average snow and very cold here. I understand that 2014-2015 is an anomaly, but a solidly BN temp AN snow winter would be nice.

For BOS maybe around 25 inches is what I’m thinking right now for the season. The upcoming pattern and threat appears to favor the interior again. I don’t think it will be an awful snow season for say Ray Will and others living more inland, but I do think the coast is cooked. I’m thinking there’s a sharp gradient somewhere 20 or so miles NW of me.

I think areas that got hammered in the big interior storm earlier in the month have a shot, but we are screwed. I average around 50-55 I think, it would take a very big second half to get there.

Jan 2022 was the last big one for me, I’d like to see a true big snow and cold month that is remembered fondly like Feb 2015, Jan 2011, Feb 2013, Mar 2018, etc. Its been a while.