George001

Agree, it’s so warm I don’t even need a jacket. Its 10am and we already broke 60 where I live, we might even have an outside shot at breaking 70 if the sun comes out later today.

The Pope is quite angry today, haven’t seen this much rage from him since the late December threat (back when it looked snowy). That is something to keep an eye on the next few days. I am still trying to figure out how the Popes anger correlates with our snow chances, but considering that he’s been fairly tame while we roasted the past month and a half I’m thinking it’s a good sign. My theory is as our snow chances increase, the Popes hostility also increases.

Yeah the reason why I haven’t been posting nearly as much since mid Jan or so here is I didn’t really see anything I liked on the models for big snow potential in SNE. The late Feb threat looks like it has some potential but I’m skeptical. I don’t think the longwave pattern supports a storm that is all that strong, the pattern looks zonal and progressive. If things break right it’s possible things work out but the way this winter has gone I’m at the point where I need to see it to believe it.

Too early to know what will happen in March. We need to figure out if all that cold from the SSW comes down, or if it stays up in the stratosphere. In March 2018, it came down but took a few weeks. You said this one isn’t expected to come down, but if it does come down there is a lag so that’s expected. There is no way to know whether or not it will come down this far out so the outlook for March should be taken with a grain of salt. If the cold air doesn’t come down, it will likely be well above normal temps like it’s been all winter. If it does come down, it will likely be much colder and snowier than the weeklies are saying. An ensemble doesn’t really tell the story for this one since the projected 500 mb pattern is a mean, where as the reality is likely to be one of the outlier solutions. Just to be clear, I’m not saying this means snow. It very well could be the warmest ensemble members that have the right idea which means game over. The point I’m making is that IF things break right, it’s not “too late” or any of that nonsense. If you want to argue that the probability things break right is very low, fair enough. But on this subforum we don’t give a flying fuck about average temps in Philly, that’s basically the tropics. In the mid March blizzard of 2018, Philly got RAIN while in New England it was a burial.

There isn’t anything wrong with liking warmer weather and being excited about the mild and snowless winter we are having. Torch Tiger, Snowman19, and qqomega all like warmer weather and so they post about it. I love the cold and snow but it’s important to recognize that not everyone likes the same type of weather, and it’s not just a snow board.

I figured you would be really happy with how this “winter” has turned out since you like warmer weather.

Hell an argument could be made that we are better off punting next winter with a stronger nino since it would reshuffle the pattern. The warm pool out west has been linked to the stubborn western trough pattern we are in right now.

Ninas aren’t bad in New England, this winter sucked but statistically moderate nino and strong nino are the 2 worst enso states for SNE snowfall.

How come? Is it because of the risk that the El Niño grows too powerful? That’s a valid concern, but I’d rather take my chances with that than roll with enso neutral. We haven’t had a huge winter in a while, and the best enso state for huge winters in SNE is a weak nino.

There are signs pointing towards El Niño developing over the summer. The models aren’t very strong with the nino right now, but historically after 2nd and 3rd year Ninas we have seen stronger ninos. After the 3 year Nina ending in 2001 and the 2 year Nina ending in 2009, a moderate or strong El Niño developed! There is a lot of warm water below the surface in the western enso 4 region, these waters are as much as 6 degrees Celsius above normal. It will spread out as it comes up so we won’t see anything near a +6 ONI, but waters that warm do often result in fairly powerful El Niños such as 2009-2010, 2002-2003, 1957-1958, 1972-1973, 1982-1983 etc.

Weak Ninos are good, too strong and it’s congrats DC.

We are due for a huge winter. Post 2015 has been really shitty for the most part with only a couple good years. The warm waters being displaced to the west is a good sign. If that comes up, we will have a west based El Niño. Man, it really looked like this was going to be a big one with all that blocking in early December on the models. I don’t know what happened.

I get what you are saying, and yes I am kind of grasping at straws with the SSW stuff but just because the odds aren’t in our favor doesn’t mean I’m going to stop tracking. You are wrong about March though, it is possible to build a pack in March. Look at March 2018, we got buried and held on to a pack for a couple of weeks. If it doesn’t snow here, it doesn’t snow. There is nothing I can do about it besides moving north like you said. I’ll be happy to track rainstorms if we keep getting them, because they are fun to track as well. Also not everyone here likes snow, Torch Tiger, snowman19, and qqomega like warmer weather.

You excited about the weather the next week or 2? A run at 70 isn’t out of the question, might be able to get some golfing in.

The SSW is trending stronger on the models. This is actually starting to get really interesting, yes there is a lag but in New England March is a winter month. There are no guarantees the SSW will be favorable for us, but a shake up of the current pattern is welcome. Id rather roll the dice and hope for the best with an SSW than just be stuck in our current (awful) pattern. If things do pan out with the SSW, I disagree that it will be too late. Early March is just in time for a potential 3 week run of storm after storm. 3 weeks isn’t a super long time, but in a favorable pattern nearly an entire seasons worth of snow or even more in 3 weeks can happen (especially areas closer to the coast).

Do you think it’s possible that the window you anticipated would happen in Jan before a break and then big finish happens towards mid Feb instead before the polar vortex stuff takes over and gives us the big March?

Things are trending more favorably with the polar vortex. Not a guarantee and I would still say the odds are against us making up enough ground to end up above average snow for the winter. However, things look a lot better than they did even a week ago. It doesn’t happen every year, but in our snowy seasons we go on a run at some point with storm after storm. 2017-2018 was a 4 week run in March, 2010-2011 was a 4 week run from late Dec to late Jan, and 2014-2015 was a 4 week run from late Jan to late Feb. Most years that doesn’t happen, but when it does we make up for lost ground fast.

What I’m rooting for is the best of both worlds, the polar vortex weakens significantly (in a way that favors cold and snow for us), and the nina lingers for longer than expected. That could result in a big finish to winter and a weak nino next year.

H5 looks really interesting on both the gfs and Canadian. The western ridge axis is over Montana instead of off the west coast this time. If that ridge can amp up a bit more we might have a decent storm on our hands.

Euro has a low in Wisconsin for the 10th to 11th threat, gfs is a Miller B that transfers the low over Long Island. Still a wide range of possibilities.

Yeah this likely isn’t going to end up being a good winter but that doesn’t mean we can’t get one big event. I find it hard to believe we go the entire winter without at least one big event for SNE (12+).

I know SE ridging is always a risk in Ninas, but I didn’t think it would make it all the way up to us especially with the look we had in early December. It’s strange how despite the Nina being borderline moderate, it’s acting like a very strong one with no blocking (post December). Looking at the SSTs it looks like the Nina transitioned from east leaning basin wide to a more west based Nina. I know that isn’t good for us, but I’m curious about what the warning signs were that the Nina would shift west and influence our pattern in a way that resulted in a mild winter with below normal snow. I do agree with you that we got unlucky, but especially post December the longwave pattern has been awful.

I know Torch Tiger and qqomega genuinely like warmer weather, the Pope I’m not sure about. I honestly think the Pope is just calling it as he sees it, and he believed we would have a really mild winter based on his observations of geese. We shit on the geese thing, but they helped him make what so far has been a spot on forecast. This winter has been quite mild, and I really am starting to think there is something to the idea that behavior of animals like geese in the late fall/early winter is telling. More telling than looking at long range models and trying to extrapolate based on the good ol “alphabet soup” (ssts, pdo, amo, enso, soi, epo, nao, ace, etc…..)

Yeah that’s a bust. I can’t believe we got nothing to show for all of that blocking, and then we torched.

I don’t think it’s done, it will keep trending north.