I would go 10-15 in the 1-3 area (except the cape, there would be a sharp cutoff there due to low location), 16-24 in the 4-8 area, and 24-30 in the berkshires.
The crazy thing is models could be underestimating the QPF by quite a bit despite giving many areas 2.5+ inches. With a 970s mb low stalling over the cape I think that will increase.
could the dual low thing be the models struggling with the transfer (Miller B redevelopment)? I think the models might consolidate and merge the 2 lows into one big low as we get closer to the storm.
Yeah, this storm has a lot of potential. The airmass is bad but the low is deepening a lot so it can create its own cold air. Ultimately it comes down to low location.
Yep major changes on the nam. Both northern and southern energy look stronger. I don’t know where the low will go but I think the strength of the low will increase.
They could be wrong, it wouldn’t be the first time nor will it be the last. The stations I watched emphasized the high degree of uncertainty here, yes they are leaning towards a rainy solution but that could change depending on what the future guidance says.