George001

I’m not saying it’s going to be a full blown torch for the entire east coast, but it looks like an up and in pattern, not a coastal one. Lots of huggers, inland runners, SWFEs, etc. Nothing wrong with that, but with the -PDO and western troughing it’s looking more like a slightly more favorable version of last years pattern. Especially with the extremely mild Atlantic SSTs, I would bet against any snow in eastern mass. Elevation, CNE and NNE is a different story. For me to get excited about snow prospects closer to the coast in December, I need to see 2m temps in the -3 to -2 range and a favorable 500mb pattern inside of 7 days. For early Dec, it’s more -5 to -4.

It could work out, but I heard the same things last December. I fell for it and bought in last time, I’m not falling for it this time. Especially with the really warm ocean temps im not expecting much of anything for my area in December. Yes it’s a strong nino and not a Nina, but strong ninos especially -PDO ones have their own set of issues.

some of these maps being posted look like last years December pattern. I like seeing the -NAO, but I’m not buying in unless the pacific cooperates. Just not cold enough

Agree, I consider 09-10 to be strong. What’s interesting is if you are using MEI, last winter would be considered a strong Nina and 2010-2011 would be considered super.

Huh I always thought it was 3 months. That’s why I considered 72-73 and 65-66 to be super, not strong.

Paul Roundy was right. I’m not quite there yet, but I’m getting very close to jumping back on the super nino train.

All 4 Enso regions are above 1.5, and 2 of them are above 2.0. That should not be overlooked.

We are already starting to see the strong STJ showing up on the models, and the SOI reflects a high end strong El Niño. I don’t think it will officially be a super peak, but regardless this El Niño is very powerful and it’s strength should not be overlooked. Say what you want about Paul Roundy, but he has been more right than wrong about the evolution of this event. Most forecasts were calling for a weak-moderate event, and Paul Roundy was saying this would be a big one as early as March. I would go as far as saying the raw strength of this El Niño just about eliminates any coupling concerns come wintertime.

Looks like we are right on par with 1965-1966 for El Niño strength.

Yep that’s weather for ya, any forecast 2 weeks out is going to change multiple times. Hell, even a week is a long time in weather.

It’s not even that the pattern is super unfavorable or anything, it’s just meh. An typical November pattern, nothing special. And climo for November (even late November) doesn’t support snow outside the far interior and elevations. You basically need everything to be perfect to snow at this time of year.

Yeah im not really buying any of these threats. Just too early, the 540 line in Canada isn’t gonna cut it.

I don’t entirely disagree with you, this is a strong nino right now and like you said in an earlier post the active STJ reflects that. However, I would be shocked if we have a monthly average of +2.3C. We are also on borrowed time. We have about a month left of warming before the event peaks according to most guidance and climatology. Regardless, I don’t think it’s super relevant whether we peak at 1.8 or 2.1 ONI. A 1.8 ONI El Niño is far from weak, it’s high end strong/borderline super. The guidance usually has a good grasp on the peak strength by this point, it’s the structure and how rapidly the event weakens that is still uncertain.

Don’t ban the Pope

Agree. I was on the super nino train, but the data no longer supports that. Things change

I am discounting it due to low track, location, and the calendar date. Like the pope said, there isn’t really anything to force such aggressive Miller B redevelopment. NAO is positive.

I like seeing it below normal in November, but that “shit sandwich” warm and wet to cold and dry is absolutely a concern. I don’t like seeing lows running inland, if we want big snows that needs to change. It’s not going to snow in our backyards either way because it’s November, but often times the November pattern is a sign of things to come.

Yep, 970s mb low plowing into Montreal.

Uh oh. Torch Tiger is excited about the upcoming storm event on the GFS. I haven’t even looked yet at the surface, but that tells me all I need to know.

Looks like the low is going to run inland. Low plowing into central NY?

That’s a great way to set yourself up to be disappointed. I learned that the hard way….

Good read. We don’t always agree, but I respect the transparency about your previous outlooks. I wish more seasonal forecasters would be as open about the results of their previous forecasts. It appears that we agree about the pacific, and where our forecasts differ is the polar domain. I’m solidly in the 1972-1973, 1991-1992, 2018-2019 camp. Considering that you are forecasting nearly twice as much snow for my area as I am, I hope you are right.

2m anomalies?

Agree. Whether the nino falls short of super or not, there is a very real chance the strength of the nino derails winter for snow enthusiasts in the east.

I was on board with a historic super nino too, but the data doesn’t support that anymore. The ONI graph in particular is misleading, as the 2023 El Niño event began diverging from the super events after September. 82-83, 97-98, and 15-16 all were above 2.0 by now. Right now it’s evolving more like a slightly stronger version of 57-58 than the super events. Don’t get me wrong, this nino is far from weak. It’s looking more like a +1.8-1.9 peak than a +2.3 or higher though.