George001

It’s a similar setup. Like Cavs fans are saying about James Harden, perhaps things will be different this time…

The same people complaining about this winter right now will be looking back at it fondly in 5 years, possibly next year if the El Niño becomes strong.

Im someone with high expectations, even winters like 2021-2022 that had a lot of snow didn’t really impress me since there was no staying power. Based on our seasonal snow (so far) relative to normal, temps and snow cover, this winter has impressed me more than any winter we have had since the legendary 14-15 winter.

You underrate this winter and overrate Drake Maye.

DC probably isn’t getting shit from this, it’s a coastal scraper setup. The pattern doesn’t really support a big snow there. We are seeing some consolidation on guidance now, I expect the GFS to bump east at 18z and come in line with the rest of the guidance.

This reminds me of a storm in Feb 2013. Not the huge blizzard, it was after that. The meat of the storm was offshore, but got about half a foot because we got clipped by a few outer bands. It was a coastal scraper setup like this one.

Agree on OP GFS being too amplified, but I would expect the precip shield to be more expansive with such a strong low. I’ve given up on the widespread blizzard idea, but still keeping an eye out for the possibility we get into some outer banding.

Euro AI is back on board for a major storm. If the regular Euro and EPS jump on board tomorrow that would be huge. Hopefully we can get a big bump west, big 12z runs coming up.

I didn’t word that great, I disagree with picking and choosing that it sucks vs is good depending on how much snow it shows. Picking and choosing because certain models are better in certain setups or you are seeing something in the large scale pattern that favors a certain outcome…. Yeah that’s good forecasting. I’m criticizing doomcasting, not what you are doing. Wanting the Euro suite to stabilize as a hit before buying in is reasonable. My issue is with the side with the models that show the least snow process (imo a lot of people have overcorrected due to recent lean years). Again, you aren’t doing that, and honestly I don’t disagree with you. I’m not on the blizzard train myself. I’m not ruling it out, but gun to head I’d favor a glancing blow. Once the Euro stabilizes and what solution it locks on to will be very telling.

It’s been shifting hundreds of miles every run. Until it stabilizes yeah it’s tough to take seriously regardless of what it does, I’d agree with that. Didn’t you say the Euro sucks in previous threats though? Can’t pick and choose.

You aren’t wrong to bring this up, but recall a big issue being wave spacing and kickers punting these coastal threats out to sea. The wavelengths being shorter in late Feb into March could help here. That strong high to the north has my attention for this one. I do however agree with you that out to sea is the biggest fail risk here. If it comes together though, watch out.

Looks like a gradient pattern is setting up with waves along a boundary.

Sunday-Monday storm is expected to slide out to sea due to the negative PNA and zonal flow, this isn’t really an explosive coastal setup. Next week looks better, no big storm but multiple waves along a boundary. It can add up quickly.

It’s been BN to well BN temps every month and most areas are sitting at 130-150% of average snow. It has objectively been the most severe winter in terms of cold and snow since 14-15. Boston is already sitting at what 40 inches, that’s close to the average for the ENTIRE SEASON and we have 3 more weeks of Feb + March still left. Yeah, most of our snow came from one storm but you know as well as anyone that’s how our climo is. I know we left some on the table (especially December), but I would also argue that the pattern overall has been been a notch below top La Niña winters like 10-11 and 95-96. We have not had as active of a STJ and less blocking overall than those winters, so I wouldn’t say we left a fuck ton on the table. This winter has produced really well overall, I’m happy with it.

The models were showing rain yesterday. I’d wait until they stabilize some before drawing conclusions rather than flip flopping with every run.

normally I’d look at the setup and say rain, but how cold the ocean temps are right now could help us (east winds not the death sentence they often are in these setups for the coast). If the low goes inland it will rain regardless, but I think we have more room for error than usual in these setups due to it being mid Feb + the unusually cold ocean temps.

Woke up early to hit the liquor store?

I agree it will end up being a cold and possibly snowy month overall, but I do agree with the idea of a mid month relaxation period.

Yeah this looks like more of a norlun event than a widespread plowable snow. I’m not expecting much from this, someone could end up with a surprise but I would think it’s a small area.

Yeah there will probably be a brief relaxation period.

It’s sunny out

Yeah the entire region is buried. I was wrong about the next storm, I thought it was coming back but looks like that one’s going out to sea. Normally I get annoyed with wasted potential, but we already have a metric fuck ton of snow on the ground. This is an old school New England winter, none of that chasing ghosts in a sea of warmth bullshit. Still have all of Feb and Mar left for more winter weather too. I like Torch Tiger, he’s a decent guy but I do think he has been doing some day drinking recently.

Having civil disagreements is fine, but insulting and verbally abusing meteorologists like that should be ban worthy. The expertise of those who do this for a living and work in the field is incredibly valuable, it’s important to keep in mind the mets here are providing us with information they paid tens of thousands of dollars to learn for free. Yes, they bust sometimes, that’s the nature of the field. Forming a hypothesis, testing it, rejecting it when incorrect, and updating it as you get new information is not a moral failing, it’s literally a core part of the scientific method. @brooklynwx99 has been on this board for years. Despite a lot of the material he and the other mets here post being over my head, I have noticed his predictions have gotten more accurate over the years. From the perspective of an outsider, it looks like he made incorrect predictions, learned from them, and adapted his process over time. I view him as a story of a younger meteorologist (he mentioned he’s a younger guy on another server I was in) successfully applying the scientific method and becoming better and better at his job because of it. That’s a success story, its exactly what smart and analytically minded people do. In the interest of optimizing the pursuit of knowledge, it’s in all of our best interests to not drive the mets here off this board, and to stop moralizing the scientific process.

I thought the models would correct west today. They didn’t, but it’s still a massive ocean storm where even a 50 mile NW bump would make a huge difference. It’s too early to throw in the towel especially for eastern areas.

I’m not buying this eastern trend at all. Something big is going to happen this weekend.