George001

Im not making any claims about the result (mainly because I don’t know, I haven’t looked at this yet), but I would expand it out to top 30 driest falls. 5 is too small of a sample size.

The signal is fairly strong now on guidance, for me the question is how long will this -EPO/-WPO last? If it has real staying power and persists into mid-late Dec we would already be rapidly deviating from some of the worst case analogs (01-02, 22-23 etc). If it only lasts a few days or so then that will be concerning.

What I will say is while the expected outcome for this winter is AN temps and BN snow, in my opinion this winter has more “upside” than the last. The most prohibitive ENSO state for AN snowfall in New England (especially ski areas) is a potent Nino. When you combine that with a -PDO, things look even worse. Even the absolute best analog last year gave my area 100-110% of average snowfall with normal to slightly above normal temps (57-58). But…… when you adjust for climate change all of a sudden that analog looks really unfavorable for east coast snow. The best case analog this year (13-14) had more like 140-150% of normal snow with well BN temps.

It’s good to look for possible reasons why the consensus is wrong, but looking at it objectively things don’t look great for the east coast this winter. While it certainly COULD be a colder than normal winter with lots of snow, given the fall pattern (especially what we have seen in November so far) and background state the probability is skewed heavily in favor of AN temps and BN snow for the east this coming winter. There are a bunch of valuable tools and methods used by members of this forum that support this, and that is an incredibly valuable thing whether or not they show what we want to see. I’m looking for reasons why the consensus could be wrong too, but it’s important to keep in mind that the consensus is a higher probability outcome. There is absolutely nothing wrong with going against the consensus, but you need a good reason to do so and it is important not to let your analysis be clouded by bias (Something I struggle with myself, though I do feel like I have improved a lot over the past couple of years in this area).

I’m definitely more bullish on winter than most, but some of the things I’ve seen so far in November have me concerned. That said, I agree it’s a good idea to think outside the box and ask what could go wrong. I have a few things in mind: 1. The currently strongly -PDO continues to weaken and ends up only moderately or even weakly negative for the second half of winter 2. In the second half of this hurricane season, guidance has repeatedly underestimated the strength of developing lows in the gulf. It is possible this continues into the winter, especially if the ocean temps remain elevated (AGW isn’t going anywhere, so this is very likely). During our windows of opportunity, digging shortwaves may be able to tap that gulf moisture leading to bigger storms coming up the coast. This could lead to a snowier than expected outcome even if seasonal guidance has the right idea about the temp profile. 3. The expected +NAO is more south based than seasonal guidance is indicating, leading to a colder outcome for New England. 4. El Niño begins to to rapidly develop in the second half of winter (note: this is not supported by any guidance whatsoever) 5. Something that didn’t cross anyone’s mind pops up and derails the consensus winter forecasts. From most likely to least: 5 > 2 >>> 3 >>> 1 >>>>>>> 4

With how November is looking I am inclined to agree with this. The question is what is the magnitude of the warmth, and how long are the favorable vs unfavorable windows? Are we looking at +2f or closer to +5f? If we are looking at a shitty pattern like 15-16, 16-17, 22-23, etc where it’s closer to the +5 end, I would bet on well below normal snow. In my opinion if you run winters like 15-16 and 16-17 through a simulation, it would be well BN snow 9/10 times. The whole “relying on a 2 week window in a sea of shit” thing isn’t a sustainable way to get to average or above average snow. This is more true up north where it takes more than one big storm to get to average.

Im actually wondering if we had a March 2012 redux in today’s climate if we would see 90s.

Yep a raging +EPO is bad news for the east. I would be skeptical of any modeled snow outside of NNE/elevations with that look -NAO or not. It could be interesting for ski areas in CNE though if the +EPO backs off some in early December. Areas more SE will need to wait longer, how much longer depends on what happens with the pacific pattern.

I’m expecting a stronger than normal PV this year but this is much more promising than the earlier runs where it was near record strong and showed no signs of weakening.

Yeah it has been an incredibly hot year overall. Summer was extremely hot and winter was near record warm as well, but I was referring to the past 90 days when claiming it wasn’t a torch. I know it has been a torch the last 2 winters, but I believe that things will be different this time based on some of the things I’ve seen this fall.

Yep that’s just very ugly. Hopefully it is completely wrong, verbatim I got a decent amount of snow in 16-17 but I do not want to take my chances with that pattern again. The extended stretches of warmth with small 1-2 week windows of opportunity isn’t going to cut it.

Over the past 90 days it has been slightly warmer than average but not a torch. The first half of November does look quite warm though.

I’m not sure, are phases 7-2 cold in the east in November?

The big difference was the temp profile, it was colder in the west late fall 2022.

I liked 2022-2023 as a possible analog at first but the fall pattern is completely different. It certainly could still have similarities though. Both are cold ENSO winters with a strong -PDO pattern, so I wouldn’t rule it out completely as an analog, it’s just further down the list now.

Yeah my post was kind of misleading, my bad on that. From what I have seen the guidance does have the warmth in the northern plains continuing into December, but yeah it should be much colder there in the winter. The main point I was making is that the fall pattern is completely different than the last 2 years, and when looking at winters with a similar temp/precip profile in the fall, there are some colder/snowier years in the mix. I mean a lot colder and snowier, like 13-14 and 10-11. I did not mean to imply that the northern plains would roast all winter with a strong +PNA, that would be a 14-15 type pattern. November was frigid in the east from what I remember and it was a warm ENSO pattern, so not a good analog at all. In 13-14 and 10-11, the plains was cold. In 13-14 in particular the plains was downright frigid, though the cold did bleed into the east as well. Of course, there were some really bad winters like 01-02 in there as well which is also a possibility.

What are your thoughts on the plains centered warmth? It has been warm and dry everywhere but the real torch has been plains centered. The seasonal guidance is warm in November but with a similar theme to the past 90 day temp profile. Based on the fall temp profile and weak ENSO, I’m actually inclined to think that the risk is colder/snowier rather than warmer than the seasonal guidance based on this, especially if we do get periods of -EPO. Getting enough -EPO to result in a BN temp winter with a -3 PDO is an extremely tough ask especially with CC so I wouldn’t outright forecast it, but it’s something in the back of my mind. I’m thinking +2 to +3 AN temps for my area, but I do think there is say a ~20% chance that cold bleeds into the east and just about everyone busts way too warm. I am nowhere near as confident as I was last fall in a torch winter.

I’m feeling pretty good about things where I’m at near Boston

The only exception to this would be when an extremely potent Nino is imminent. I know what the seasonal guidance is saying, but I’ll take my chances with the way things look now any day over how they looked last year in mid to late fall.

I remember that storm, it had DC to NYC getting buried and my area being on the northern fringe about 4 days out, and then the models shifted hundreds of miles north in the short range. I ended up with around 15, some areas in NNE that were expected to get 2-4 inches got 40 inches. That was a rollercoaster to track

Remember about a week ago our discussion on the SAI index? It has tailed off recently and is around average, so looks like the whole issue of how relevant rapid SAI index would be is going to be a non issue after all. What is interesting is I did some very basic research on years with similar characteristics to this fall (warm centered out west, bone dry in the east) and the results are quite interesting. The list of years is not as Nina dominant as I thought it would be. The MJO pulse going on right now though is very much reflective of a La Niña background state (As Bluewave pointed out, it actually matches the stronger Nina’s, not the weaker ones we have seen over the last 15 or so years). Perhaps the composite of years similar to the November pattern will be more Nina dominant. Won’t know for sure until mid-late November or so.

Yeah the lower terrain of the mid Atlantic needs a lot of help in December. Even my area December climo kinda sucks the first half of the month

I am trying something new this winter, I am going to use an analog composite, and rather than evaluate winter patterns based on average temp and total snowfall, I will evaluate patterns based on how long the period of favorability is (what many of us refer to as windows of opportunity). This methodology attempts to limit the role of variance. I don’t like the idea of classifying the 2016-2017 and 2021-2022 winters as successes, as I feel my area having AN snow those years is a product of getting lucky in a bad pattern, and I would expect a much worse outcome 9/10 times if you run those 2 winters in a simulation 10 times. I mean, in 2021-2022 I got buried with 20 inches of snow from one storm in a short window of opportunity in a sea of warmth. Thats why my area finished with AN snow while north, south, east and west finished with BN snow. The only place that did better than me was maybe the south shore where they got 30 inches. Hey, I’m not going to complain about getting lucky but I’m also not going to count on it repeating if we get a similar pattern again. More often than not, it won’t. Like any other approaches, this approach has its own set of problems. It’s not as simple as favorable and unfavorable. 2014-2015 had about 2.5 months of favorability and 1.5 months of unfavorability and so did 2017-2018. According to this way of evaluating winters, 2017-2018 and 2014-2015 would be equal. In reality, 2014-2015 was better and should have been. Why? Feb literally averaged -10 BN. The actual weather pattern was about as good as it possibly can be for New England. So the magnitude of favorability/unfavorability does matter, and this approach doesn’t capture that. I do feel this approach still has value even now, as I am inherently against the idea of using extreme analogs like 14-15, 11-12, etc to begin with. I do however think it will run into issues if we say get a high end strong nino/ moderate + strength modoki Nina with a -PDO like last year/the year before, or a weak modoki Nino/east based weak Nina with a strong +PDO like 14-15/95-96. Those scenarios have a heightened potential for an “extreme” scenario. Nothing really screams ratter or blockbuster this year, which is why I think this approach has some merit for this year and I’m going to give it a shot. I do plan to tweak it in the future to account for the magnitude of favorability/unfavorability, as that does matter and is a fairly big flaw in this approach. Though once you go beyond a certain +AN threshold you are looking at a shutout pattern

The CFS shifted back to cold for Jan (still warm in Dec and Feb). Lots of flip flopping… I’m taking anything these models say right now with a grain of salt, just too early.

That’s actually a really cool and creative idea. Credit to him for coming up with it, but I do see a flaw in the key principle from a data science perspective and potentially a business one as well. An amateur like myself will always have a major limitation, lack of background knowledge of meteorology. I suppose you can teach yourself meteorology, it seems like Raindance did that to some extent. But someone who has been doing it their whole lives and is in the field, they know what to look for, they still will know far more than we amateurs do. Domain knowledge is tremendously helpful in helping identify what variables would potentially have the highest correlation coefficient with important quantifiable things like temp, precip amount, precip type, etc. Really the best forecasts could be made if he hired and teamed up with a meteorologist to make this app. If I were him I would have hired a meteorologist to clue him in on what to look for, so he can further optimize his models and increase the predictive power. Then just make that your product and sell it, get a bag. Forget the fantasy football thing, if he combined his skills with a meteorologist, used that domain knowledge from them to optimize and boost the predictive power of models, that would make his predictions way better and easier to market. I mean, you could prove its validity instantly by backtesting on previous years. There is so much potential here. All it takes is not being so fucking arrogant that you think you possibly know more about a field you casually read up on. You think you are just gonna read a few peer reviewed papers and know more than experts in the field and have been doing it their entire lives? I don’t buy it. Not a chance in hell.