George001

My concern is that the dry pattern remains on guidance even as we go from deep cold to more seasonal temps. My hope was that we would see the SE ridge flex, shift the storm track north and get hit fairly hard late Jan into Feb. but guidance doesn’t show that happening. It more goes from cold and dry to seasonal and dry.

Look at the 7 day precip mean on the ensembles…. Fairly dry look for the next 15 days or so. Unfortunately this dry pattern appears to be somewhat locked in. It looks warmer than Jan temp wise, but not a real torch. More of the back and forth we saw in December. Still, not what you want to see during peak snowfall climo. I would say it’s an unfavorable overall look for snow relative to climo. I’m not done tracking storms, but at this point I am throwing in the towel on trying to look for a path to an AN snow winter. We are at the point where 70-80% of average snow is a realistic high end outcome.

Looks like we are looking at a gradient pattern setting up for early Feb

It isn’t a good thing for us when the Deep South is getting buried, very suppressive pattern.

I don’t know about that. The MJO plots have it briefly going into phase 4 (relaxation period early Feb?) and then potentially into the cold phases again. My biggest concern is that we will see more of the same, cold and dry. That has been the pattern the first half of winter, often these patterns have a tendency to lock in. Honestly think there is a decent chance we finish the winter with both below normal temps and below normal snowfall, which is very rare especially with the acceleration of climate change. We have seen a tendency towards warm/wet as AGW progresses. It is unfortunate that this cold pattern has not been a snowy one, as cold winters like this are becoming rarer and rarer as our climate warms. It would be nice to capitalize on it and snow when we do get cold weather.

Eyeballing 5 inches or so here

Radar looks pretty good. I was nervous when I saw the temps earlier and was thinking this would be a bust for my area. Hoping the NWS had the right idea sticking to their guns calling for 6-8 inches here. I would be happy with that.

Looks like this is turning into more of an interior event

Its worse than that, I’m worried we will end up getting another shitty 2-4 inch event. The NWS is forecasting 6-8 inches here, it needs to cool off FAST for that to happen. Unacceptable performance from guidance this close in. The Euro had 8+ for us just yesterday.

I’m concerned about the temps to start, they are warmer than modeled. Im concerned that we are staring down yet another rug pull, guidance was consistent giving me 6+ over the past day or so, but with these starting temps I don’t know about that. Very disappointing

Severe thunderstorms?

Gfs is a burial

Looks like the goalposts have narrowed. The SE of benchmark track and inland runner track are out, now the question is does the low go right over the benchmark or does it track inside the benchmark and go over the cape?

Yeah I’m feeling good about this one. This will likely be the biggest storm since the Jan 2022 blizzard here, and there are more threats in the pipeline.

I would be disgusted with 2-4. Warning event or bust in my eyes

I’m all in, thinking 8-12 here

I like the setup for threat 3 a lot better than threat 2, but the one that excites me the most is tomorrow’s storm.

Euro was weak and strung out. Gfs is way better, it has a deeper low that goes over the cape.

Stormy pattern too. We have 3 snow threats over the next 8 days

For areas that mix sure, but I’m taking the over on that for places that stay all snow.

Euro is weak and strung out

Realistically I could get anything from rain to a couple inches of fluff to 12-18 inches of snow. Not too common to see that wide a range of possible outcomes this close in.

I’d be surprised if I see less than 6. 10:1 snow maps tend to be underdone in these setups.

The low location is 200+ miles NW of where it was being modeled 2 days ago on the GFS. Fast flow patterns are really tough on the models.

I like this setup, yeah you aren’t getting a huge blizzard here but this is a COLD airmass. I love the look on the 6z gfs, around a ~1000mb low near the benchmark with frigid upper levels and surface temps in the mid 20s at the height of the storm. It’s a similar setup to the storm 2 weeks before the huge blizzard in Jan 2022.