George001

Sort of, I was doing weed and shrooms, now I’m doing shrooms.

Yeah, nothing against drugs (Im sticking to shrooms now) but when it becomes an addiction that’s a problem. I kicked my weed habit a couple of months ago, noticed my attitude and energy levels have improved a lot. Picked the perfect winter to do it.

When it comes to this hobby, this is as good as it gets. It’s snowing out right now and a blizzard is coming on Monday

Casually brushing off 10-15 inches of snow like it’s not that big of a deal and not higher end

If that phases in earlier on the Euro suite, that opens things up for northern areas that are also getting hit by today’s storm.

Absolutely amazing trends overnight and this morning. I’m feeling much better about this with the Euro and EPS now on board for a decent event.

Weed?

I haven’t been following this one too closely, was thinking we had a shot at 4-6 here. Yeah that’s not going to happen, holy shit this one trended way north!

I’m gonna stay up for the AIFS and Euro then wake up for the full 6z suite.

No defense mechanism here. I literally agreed with him that we need another bump NW, Euro is more east than the NAM. I would be saying the same shit if the NAM showed a monster 2 foot blizzard. We are on the same page about the Euro, I know some people here don’t like it but this close in it’s quite good.

NAM = garbage outside of 24 hours. Like you said in your previous post, we need another bump NW from the Euro at 0z. The Euro isn’t perfect, but no fucking way am I ignoring what it shows this close to the event.

Yeah, the Euro this close in making that kind of move is a huge deal. I didn’t like how consistent it was with an eastern solution, this re opens the door for a bigger hit than a coastal scraper.

But that’s just greed, most people didn’t expect winter to be anywhere near this cold going in. It has been a cold and snowy winter. When the models show a lot of eye candy people increase expectations. I recall predicting 55-65 inches of snow for Boston, looks like a good chance we do end up on the lower end of that range. 55 inches for Boston Logan would be about 130% of average, snowcover has been great, and it has been very cold (well BN temps). Going in, I would have taken that and ran and a lot of the people complaining would have too. I’d rather be happy with a cold and snowy winter than be annoyed that it didnt turn into 95-96, 14-15, or 10-11.

It’s a similar setup. Like Cavs fans are saying about James Harden, perhaps things will be different this time…

The same people complaining about this winter right now will be looking back at it fondly in 5 years, possibly next year if the El Niño becomes strong.

Im someone with high expectations, even winters like 2021-2022 that had a lot of snow didn’t really impress me since there was no staying power. Based on our seasonal snow (so far) relative to normal, temps and snow cover, this winter has impressed me more than any winter we have had since the legendary 14-15 winter.

You underrate this winter and overrate Drake Maye.

DC probably isn’t getting shit from this, it’s a coastal scraper setup. The pattern doesn’t really support a big snow there. We are seeing some consolidation on guidance now, I expect the GFS to bump east at 18z and come in line with the rest of the guidance.

This reminds me of a storm in Feb 2013. Not the huge blizzard, it was after that. The meat of the storm was offshore, but got about half a foot because we got clipped by a few outer bands. It was a coastal scraper setup like this one.

Agree on OP GFS being too amplified, but I would expect the precip shield to be more expansive with such a strong low. I’ve given up on the widespread blizzard idea, but still keeping an eye out for the possibility we get into some outer banding.

Euro AI is back on board for a major storm. If the regular Euro and EPS jump on board tomorrow that would be huge. Hopefully we can get a big bump west, big 12z runs coming up.

I didn’t word that great, I disagree with picking and choosing that it sucks vs is good depending on how much snow it shows. Picking and choosing because certain models are better in certain setups or you are seeing something in the large scale pattern that favors a certain outcome…. Yeah that’s good forecasting. I’m criticizing doomcasting, not what you are doing. Wanting the Euro suite to stabilize as a hit before buying in is reasonable. My issue is with the side with the models that show the least snow process (imo a lot of people have overcorrected due to recent lean years). Again, you aren’t doing that, and honestly I don’t disagree with you. I’m not on the blizzard train myself. I’m not ruling it out, but gun to head I’d favor a glancing blow. Once the Euro stabilizes and what solution it locks on to will be very telling.

It’s been shifting hundreds of miles every run. Until it stabilizes yeah it’s tough to take seriously regardless of what it does, I’d agree with that. Didn’t you say the Euro sucks in previous threats though? Can’t pick and choose.

You aren’t wrong to bring this up, but recall a big issue being wave spacing and kickers punting these coastal threats out to sea. The wavelengths being shorter in late Feb into March could help here. That strong high to the north has my attention for this one. I do however agree with you that out to sea is the biggest fail risk here. If it comes together though, watch out.

Looks like a gradient pattern is setting up with waves along a boundary.