George001

I agree with pumping the breaks on the warmth. However, as someone who pounded the table for a big January I am keeping an open mind to the idea it may not be as frigid as I expected. I do still think it will be a big month for northern areas. We will know more after the Christmas timeframe.

I know we don’t always see eye to eye, but this is a good observation and explains why we are seeing a relaxation period instead of a wall to wall cold December. It was initially expected to spend the entire month in phase 8, but things changed. It’s important to update and adjust our expectations accordingly with new information.

Adam, I am going to say this once and that’s it. Do not reply to my posts or make comments. I do not like you or respect you as a human being. You claimed I am unhinged, I’m going to be upfront with you. I do in fact have a few screws loose just like you do. I am the one guy on this board who is arguably more unhinged and insane than you, which is saying something. So pissing me off is not in your best interest. It would be better for both of us if we ignore each-other from now on. You do you, I’ll do me. Understood? If you are rude to me, I will go even farther than I did last time. If I perceive someone as being rude to me, there is not a line I won’t cross because I do not care about laws, social norms and conventions. I don’t like that comment you made, but I’ll let you off with a warning. Your ENSO and strictly weather related posts are one sided, but they add value. Stick to that, and remove the know it all attitude and rude replies. It’s not acceptable.

I warned him once before, and Adam didn’t correct his behavior. Being nice doesn’t always work, sometimes you need to apply pressure

I don’t really have an issue with any of the other posters who lean warm besides maybe qqomega annoying me a bit at times, and even then that’s more of a me than him issue. He likes warmer weather and likes to troll those of us who like the cold and snow a bit. He’s not a dick about it though, so he’s fine. Actually, I have more issue with posters who deny AGW and usually those guys lean cold. FYI Snowmans real name is Adam Furey. Im not sure if you have seen his twitter, but if you find it you will see why I despise him as a person. He’s so negative, all he does is complain. Im not exaggerating, every damn tweet Adam is bitching about something, never anything positive to say. On here he’s a bit more toned down, but I still get a know it all vibe from him and he can be and often is rude to people who don’t deserve it. Yes, I will admit that sometimes it’s justified (eg Joe Bastardi), but when EVERY tweet is negative, that’s a problem.

Wow that’s way north, if it has the right idea a lot of people are going to be surprised tomorrow.

Once again I will say… yes, I am an asshole but I am right about you. At least I am trying to be better by only being that way to people who deserve it

This isn’t about snow anymore for me. It’s about Snowman19’s continued nastiness and rudeness to everyone who disagrees with him. Bluewave leans warm too, but he’s never calls people names or is rude to those who disagree. He’s a good man, and deserves respect. Snowman19 is genuinely a bad person, there’s a difference. Maybe I did go too far, but we all have our breaking points with people like that.

All you do is predict warm and you happen to be right more often than not because AGW. There are objective posters here (eg Don). You are not one of them. I have never seen you predict a cold and snowy pattern once in my time on this board. You have 0 ground to stand on and are a massive hypocrite bitching about people who are “biased” towards cold and snow while you are doing the same thing with warmth.

Yeah, big snows for northern areas.

Yeah I’d like to see the gfs start moving towards the Euro and Canadian tonight and tomorrow

The windshield wiper effect is strong with this one. We are only 4 days out and I have no idea what is going to happen. We just don’t know……

I’ve seen these types of events surprise. It’s a progressive setup but these quick hitters can pack a punch when things break right. Often when that does happen we don’t expect it, and it happens in the very short range. It’s definitely worth keeping an eye on.

Big ice?

Yep. He’s not wrong that a snowless December in La Niña bodes poorly for the rest of winter, but a lot can happen in 3 weeks.

I don’t agree. Yes, the deep -IOD is a warm signal but it has weakened significantly since earlier in the fall, and the other factors are more tilted towards cold than say 89-90. 89-90 was a strong La Niña, this is a weak La Niña. Also, the PDO has risen a lot in recent weeks to weakly negative rather than strongly negative. I will concede that Feb has warmer risks, but think we are getting slammed in Jan. Maybe 1 warm week, but I think we go BN temp with well AN snow in the east, especially for northern areas. It will be interesting to see how things play out.

I never really thought December would be a huge snow month for the I-95 corridor, I thought it would be a good month though. I still think that’s the right idea. However I disagree that there is nothing at all to support I-95 snowstorms in the next 14+ days. There is a window next weekend. Depends on how much that northern energy digs. I do however think we are seeing early signs that some of the early assumptions that you made about this upcoming winter could end up being wrong. Just curious what your thoughts are on that? Are you adjusting your Jan-Mar thoughts based on some of the things we have seen recently with the PDO, MJO, SOI and polar vortex? Or are you sticking to your guns?

Correct, the #1 ingredient when looking for snow is cold. The track was good for this storm, and I rained. Airmass is everything

If you hate twitter so much why not just stay off it? You know the deal with twitter and what kind of people are pushing these agendas. Everything is exaggerated to being historic or record breaking, that’s what gets clicks.

I know the models aren’t showing many hits right now, but they are also showing a lot of northern energy coming down over the next couple of weeks. Northern energy patterns can be tricky, storms pop up out of nowhere sometimes.

Storms like this are always tricky. Even 1 or 2 degrees in marginal setups like this makes a huge difference for areas on the edge.

I disagree with comparing this year to recent winters. The fall pattern has been different, it has been more seasonable to slightly BN rather than a torch, and has been stormier than last year. There are no guarantees in weather, but I feel a lot better about this upcoming winter than the past few years.

Ah that’s too bad. Hopefully they get a good amount of snow on Tuesday and start building the snowpack.

So it looks like my area is on the outside looking in on this one. How are things looking for Wachusett? I might go on Thursday morning if the conditions are good.

It looks like you were right, im gonna be taking the L on this one. Oh well, I thought I was going to get a few inches but that is looking unlikely now.