TimB

When I look at any of these snow depth maps for 12z Christmas morning all I can see is blades of grass poking through the snow and bare spots in any areas that may have gotten any degree of sun on Saturday or where the wind behind the Arctic front drifted the snow.

18z GFS looks like it’s coming in with the most boring depiction of this thing yet.

I like the “maybe it’ll shift back east” mentality better than the 1/19/19 “we may have lost the storm but at least we’ll get a couple inches on the back end with the Arctic front” mentality. Not sure the east shift is something we should count on, but getting some snow on the back end that the grass is still poking through is hardly a silver lining. Edit: Euro has barely any precip on the back end after the changeover. Maybe an inch. That’s probably the most likely scenario, not an advisory level amount.

GFS becomes the next domino to fall. Absolutely comical.

I would assume “it happened once on a GFS run” is more than enough to say it’s possible.

Unfortunately, we have to accept that it’ll probably cut further west than that. But it’s fun to look at for the next few hours. Kuchera is up over 30”.

Think we might have to cash in on our one opportunity.

Euro’s gonna be bad.

Compare and contrast TWC with the shitty new Apple weather app. One is very obviously leaning on the GFS and the other is very obviously leaning on the cutter/Arctic front solutions.

Almost identical. Scary. Maybe an even sharper temp gradient on the ICON.

CMC has that stupid cutter/Arctic front solution. Spits out a scenario where it’s 0 here and 60 in Philly on Friday morning.

Borderline cutter doesn’t sound too bad as long as it doesn’t cut too hard.

I’m starting to get the impression that it’s going to be, at best, kinda cold and kinda snowy for a brief period. Probably won’t be particularly memorable 5 years from now in extent or duration of cold or snow.

Liking the trend toward an extreme cold outbreak sometime during the weekend. Hope it comes with a little snow.

Just look at us precariously sitting near the edge of the risk area.

For the most part, I can live with that Euro run. It’s a path to victory. It shows that we can get the cold air to pour into the US somewhere and work out the details of when and where later.

Sends near all time record lows into the desert southwest. Everything we need to know for our weather here.

If the Euro is the tiebreaker on what that time period looks like, well…

Phases a clipper out of the Midwest with a storm running up the coast.

Verbatim, the GFS gives us enough snow on the back end of that storm to have a kinda white Christmas. CMC has a monster of a snowstorm in the same timeframe.

This is Feb 2021 all over again.

Seems even d6-10 might be trending closer to normal temps, at least with the models that ran overnight, and the push of Arctic air might be closer to Christmas. We’ll see what 12z brings.

NAM continues to be out on its ridiculous major ice storm island. I’d bank on this being nearly all, if not completely, plain rain.

Apple bought Dark Sky and is now using that as its data source instead of TWC. It’s garbage. Here’s the pic.

What do you mean? The NAM jackpots us for that storm.