TimB

Would think the idea of the SPC upgrading any part of the Carolinas to a high risk tomorrow, especially in light of what transpired today, would be a very poor decision.

Unfortunately, it appears we now have a PDS warning for Tuscaloosa.

Haunting images for sure. Speaking of which, satellite seems to show partial to full clearing over central MS at the moment. Can’t be good.

Those that are more “in the know” than I am seem to be saying this won’t be another 4/27/11, but I’m sure people in those areas didn’t wake up that morning with any idea of just how bad that day would be.

It’s definitely a concern. But for those that don’t want to see a tornado outbreak in those areas today, the last high risk day (5/20/2019) included a maxed out PDS watch and turned out to be a relatively minor event and no one died.

I’ll bet some of that large moderate risk area gets upgraded to high with the 6z D1 outlook tonight.

I think .1” is the most likely total we end up with for March. With that being said, it depends on how you grade a winter. Do you look at it as a whole, or do you look at individual months in addition to that whole? I would say I do the latter (and I count all months that average an appreciable amount of snow - Dec. through March), in which December was unquestionably an A+, January was a solid B, February was probably an A, and I would have to say March would unquestionably be an F if it ends at the total we have now. I don’t think I weight March as heavily as the other three, so it only drags an A/A- winter down to a B/B+ in my mind, but it’s hard for me to give a 55” winter an A on the whole, even without looking at individual months, considering we do better than 55” about 20% of the time.

That’s fair. Of course a good winter helps to make up for a low March snow total, but one caveat: a winter with 55 inches or more of snow is much more common than a March with 0.1 inches or less. In fact, if the 0.1” total holds, it will be something that has never been experienced by any Pittsburgher under the age of 75 (which of course means never at KPIT). Hardly “the way it goes” unless you’re an octogenarian.

Compare that to this March, where if the models are correct, we have a very good shot at finishing the month with only the fluke 0.1” we recorded on the 1st.

That’s my Buccos, putting up a 10-spot in the top of the first and still finding a way to lose!

I would guess that’s a fair assumption. I certainly deem myself to be a “regular person.” On a weather forum I’m a weather enthusiast first and have no desire to engage in political debate. (I don’t think the one main “political” issue related to weather is really a political issue, it’s a scientific one.)

At the end of the day, it’s a weather forum. I understand banter, but maybe not divisive topics? As a lifelong weather enthusiast who is very new to discussing it on forums, it does raise my curiosity - does the weather enthusiast community lean one way or the other politically or is it mixed?

HRRR several hours ago indicated the same general idea in Pittsburgh, with partial clearing and temperatures reaching 74 this afternoon. I can assure you, it’s 58 and rainy here and never got past 63.

Covid rudely closed Penn State’s window last year. As an alum of another Big Ten school that was better last year than they are this year, I can commiserate - though a PSU win tonight would add to my misery.

Not every year the Big Ten has four legitimate national title contenders. Edit: Three. Didn’t realize Ohio State went into a tailspin down the stretch, though that pleases me.

Wonder if they would have done the same if they were 1st in the ACC and national title contenders rather than a 10th place in the ACC bubble team. As I recall, however, last year at this time before everything got shut down, they were already talking about not playing in the tournament. So Duke errs on the side of caution.

I also know of people who have flat out lied about being 1A, and they are monsters. But this is a tough topic. I would argue that more densely populated counties have much more risk of covid spread and that they should be prioritized over rural counties in the rollout, but that’s also up for debate.

Here’s a point open for debate on that matter. Someone I know in Pittsburgh went to a county in NW PA to get the vaccine because they qualified as 1A (under 40, obese but not morbidly so) because the rollout has been slow in Allegheny County. I don’t see that as an ethics concern, but maybe others do. That said, the fact that any Pennsylvanians, let alone nearly 1 in 10, are vaccinated on the anniversary of the pandemic is incredibly impressive.

If it’s okay for a Western PA person to barge in here, I would note that 5th in vaccines given should be expected as the bare minimum for a state that is 5th in population as we are.

HRRR is an outlier but has performed well with these warm stretches, and suggests we could get to 74 today. Satellite shows broken clouds upstream over Ohio. I think we sneak past 70 this afternoon. Edit: bust! No breaks in the clouds to be found.

I second that, considering almost all of that is in the last 48 hours of the GFS’s run and isn’t continued in the 6z (and even if it were consistently in the model every day for the next week, we’d still be a week out). It’s for entertainment purposes only at this point. That said, it’s certainly more entertaining to me to watch the GFS pile 4 feet of snow on St. Marys, PA than it is to watch the GFS pile 4 feet of snow on Denver.

Looks like 70 will have to wait, at least officially at KPIT. KAGC and many other sites in western PA hit 70 yesterday. We do have a solid shot at a daily record warm low depending on where we stand at 11:59 this evening. I’d be remiss not to include this...

Also this morning’s low of 45 officially ends the streak of days with a low temperature of 37 or lower at 101 days (3rd all time).

Definitely hail on the 1993 occasion. High of 86, low of 65 with 1.86” of rain.

You look familiar, do I know you from somewhere? Oh right, we’ve become quite well acquainted with this pattern over the past several years.