TimB

Here we go again. But on the plus side, we stayed in the low-mid 30s so our snowpack survived the night. Edit: I guess I mean KPIT. I see KAGC got up to 38. ...and then there’s the NAM, which still wants to give us zr while the low is over southern Georgia to South Carolina.

0z NAM continues to run the late week low from Georgia to Delaware while still insisting that the snow changes to ice (though we get 7”). Makes absolutely no sense.

Now 31 as of 8:51 pm. Plain rain should be here in an hour or so. KMGW is at 37 at this hour. They will hit 40 down there and I’m still not ruling out that we will too.

It gets wicked on there when a forecast busts. But even if the original forecast verified and we got 9” of snow, you’d still have people on there thinking they’re clever and witty by making comments about “global warming,” as if a snowstorm negates its existence.

The 18z NAM continues to make me ask the question: how far south does this ****ing low have to be for the NAM to give us snow and not sleet/zr/rain on Thursday and Friday? I guess the positive here is the track looks good. Maybe the ptype question will be sorted out later.

They also have no plain rain in the forecast tonight, at least for here. I see they also told someone on Twitter there won’t be plain rain tonight.

You’re right. If DC wins that one but we still do fairly well, so be it, they’re due. And besides, the NAM still needs to come SE with that one. Of course, the NWS has bought in and introduced that tantalizing “snow may be heavy at times in the morning” to their forecast for Allegheny County for Thursday...

A small NW trend would be perfect, but we have to be careful what we wish for and 5” is plenty.

Euro looks like a snowpack destroyer for tonight. 38 and heavier rain.

Maybe I’m thinking of the para. Puts big snowfall rates through that area Thursday morning and nearly a foot total. Realistically, betting on rain for DC with that system or any system is even better than betting on rain for our area.

While the GFS is favorable to us, it’s even more favorable to DC.

I still think said “thump” will be freezing rain at best and not snow. Here’s a fun question: if the late week storm misses us, is it more likely to go too far SE and give us nothing, or NW and give us rain?

Still bad news tonight, but massive SE shift for the GFS for Thursday. 8” on the GFS, 7” on the para.

The percentage of the map of the lower 48 that was pink at that moment was incredible and probably unprecedented.

All outcomes are on the table at this point, including perhaps reaching our first 40 degree temperature of the month sometime after midnight. Again, I don’t expect that, but it’s a nonzero probability at this point.

At this point, since there isn’t much hope of snow, just give me the 3/4” of ice the NAM is depicting. Won’t need to worry about hypothermia if the power goes out since it’ll be 32-37 degrees outside by morning.

Also blasts our temperature above freezing as early as 9pm.

Especially considering the prior run showed 4 inches. Also, how far south does the goddamn low need to be to give us snow? Infuriating.

Every time I hear this line uttered, and it’s been many, I want to gouge my eardrums out with a pen. But yes, that is the general public’s philosophy on a topic they know literally nothing about. And that is who the NWS’s messaging is directed at, and so there’s pressure from all sides to stay the course when a warning or advisory is issued, so we don’t confuse them. Weather enthusiasts like us are a different breed. Side note: WPXI isn’t my favorite local news source for weather forecasts, but I’m a die-hard Jeopardy fan and usually switch to Netflix/Hulu at 7:30, so if I switch back to the TV earlier in the evening when making/eating dinner, etc., it’s often what’s on and I’m too lazy to change it.

I am enjoying this burst of heavy snow I’m getting right now.

This is absolutely what I’m referring to when I refer to the “bureaucratic nonsense” that I’m completely certain the NWS has to deal with. That having to issue a warning and then back it off to an advisory leaves the ignorant general public confused and thinking the NWS is totally incompetent. Almost like a Dunning-Kruger effect. And so the higher up bureaucrats probably frown upon that happening too many times for that reason.

Unfortunately, that is just how it goes around here. I remembered back when, before we knew about this storm, the Euro thought we’d be at -19 this morning and realized that even if we did start at -19 and then this storm rolled through, it would still end up as rain.

Seconded. If the over/under for the second wave were set at 0.1” or even trace, I’d take the under. Whatever we get from this small spot of yellow on the NWS radar is basically our snow total for this storm.

Very useful information, I was not aware. Thank you for this. I’m glad to see our somewhat archaic system is being improved. Not sure I’m all in on the 35 day range thing, but to each his own.

Exactly. It’s not at all unusual to see snowstorms turn to crap in these parts, but it’s upsetting when it happens this fast and this close to the event.