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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    Nothing big today in the immediate Pittsburgh area for anyone who wanted it, but there are some spectacular days/nights ahead. Been looking forward to the 5-7 day stretch starting tomorrow since it first showed up on the models.
  2. TimB
    “Bust” might be harsh. Yeah, central PA was highlighted early as a possible epicenter, so they got the location wrong, but the storm reports map isn’t all that dead:
  3. TimB
    It seems to have a little more staying power than it did a few days ago, but the 18z also has consecutive days where MDT is at a (rain induced) 68 and 63 in the middle of the afternoon (though the two days before that are hot).
  4. TimB
    There’s fantasy heat but it’s nothing extreme (for me).
  5. TimB
    Looking ahead, after a few torchy runs, heat is back to being relegated to deep GFS fantasyland as of 12z and 18z. No serious ridging until late and the other models are pretty troughy.
  6. TimB
    All is always grand in Pillow.
  7. TimB
    2 tornado warnings in eastern Ohio. Both storms will likely pass south of Pittsburgh which is fine by me, but I’ll bet somewhere in western PA (just not Pittsburgh) gets a stronger storm.
  8. TimB
    20z cut back the ENH significantly:
  9. TimB
    I still remember, and I remember because every single county in Texas was pink on the NWS map.
  10. TimB
    Too soon. Remember that time in February when El Paso got a bunch of snow and the east got a bunch of digital snow that became mostly rain all the way to Canada?
  11. TimB
    Some of those “hillbilly nothing” towns produce some great craft beer (not that Harrisburg doesn’t). I’m down with that.
  12. TimB
    That little bit of rain at lunchtime was the remnants of the MCS out of the Midwest. Sunshine and instability are on the rise now, could lead to some storms out ahead of the cold front.
  13. TimB
    Cloud deck is eroding into western areas of CTP as we speak. Sure, it might be too little too late for those who want severe, but there will be sun in a pre-frontal environment most likely.
  14. TimB
    I know this. But we’re still pre-frontal. SW wind and DP of 71 here.
  15. TimB
    This game isn’t over, it’s only 2pm and we’re still hours from the best climo for severe storms in PA.
  16. TimB
    More than a few, if I had to guess. I’d check SPC archives if I had any idea of the date, but I think it happened in W PA once maybe last year or the year before. Edit: I forgot, ENH risk has only existed for a handful of years. So it probably hasn’t occurred many times.
  17. TimB
    Ah yes, the only place it’s sunny right now. We don’t have the other parameters lined up though. Further upstream over Ohio it looks like some isolated storms have fired.
  18. TimB
    Sun has come out upstream, if that changes the game any for instability.
  19. TimB
    40% chance of watch issuance...
  20. TimB
    Pillow has had enough rain this month, based on what I’ve seen from @mahantango#1. Hopefully you and @Bubbler86and @Mount Joy Snowmancan win today.
  21. TimB
    9:00 am, 12:30, 4:00, 9:00 pm (eastern) Latest outlook was largely the same as the morning one, though I’m sure the disco is worth looking at. Edit: as Newman mentioned below, the tornado outlook has decreased over PA.
  22. TimB
    But the Pillow Carnival is going on tonight. Some people have prepared all year for that (two years maybe, if it got cancelled last year) and I wouldn’t want them to get rained out.
  23. TimB
    I would tend to agree. It’s way too early to declare the severe threat DOA. But living up to the hype? That remains to be seen. That said, PBZ discussion says the MCS coming out of the Midwest has been modeled poorly thus far, and if the models don’t have that right, what else do they not have right? My point & click is down to a 20% chance of rain today and a 40% chance tonight, but of course I’m not in the prime area for this round like you guys are.
  24. TimB
    ENH moved north with 13z update:
  25. TimB
    Those destructive thugs, having the wind do their dirty work for them.
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