TimB

So does the NWS forecast as if there is no wildfire smoke obscuring sunshine and keeping temps down or is the underperformance just a coincidence?

At least on the GFS the hour 240 map is blue and not gray in your area.

My condolences to you on your CMC QPF total. Ouch!

It’s definitely there for me. Very hazy too.

Not sure the heat is “just for fun/discussion purposes” when it appears inside of 240.

But it does follow up that heat with a nice trough that it can spend a week shifting north and east.

I don’t believe you did. The local temps aren’t incredible but still on the hot side, but that coast to coast ridge and the Dakotas/MN heat are notable.

If I were focusing solely on us, I wouldn’t have put up that map. MN state record is 115, Duluth’s is 106 and MSP is 108, I believe.

GFS isn’t done yet, but

Both of those guys are low hanging fruit for a few chuckles.

We’re equal opportunity here, apologies to anyone who is far-left or far-right.

I have this crap off and on year round so I never really know what to attribute it to. I know it’s not covid because that’s over, but AC related is a good guess.

Mike Lindell’s crack pipe?

If I were a betting man, that would be Pillow.

I think the GFS is overblown on the magnitude of the central heat wave, regardless of whether it advances east or not. I hope we don’t hit 93 this season let alone 97.

Agreed. This ain’t 1992, but it’s not 2004 either. But this heat talk makes me wish it was one of those two (Pittsburgh didn’t get to 90 in either of those summers).

I will, however, add that the EC does provide this “gem” of a day next Thursday:

I did see that. But they enter the Olympics on a two game winning streak and the NBA finals could end tonight, so there’s that.

Both, but it’s actually not quite as bad as I thought it was, especially for you. This is the peak day: Dewpoints at that point appear to be near 70 across PA. What it does, and has been doing for quite some time, is build a massive ridge with all-time type heat in the north central states (the EC agrees on that general pattern, though nowhere near as intense). This run, it propagates that ridge eastward so that’s why it’s worse for me than it is for you. Most runs, it doesn’t. Still, those 100s are awfully close.

0z GFS looks like hell in the long term, 6z not so much.

Incredible stuff. We don’t need more wildfires, but they do make beautiful sunsets.

The link on PBZ’s social media would indicate that maybe ours is a little worse than further east.

Exactly. These offices issue several zone forecasts a day. Unless you knew specifically what day you were looking for, it would be an impossible task. I would imagine such a link would be useful for some purposes, but not this. It was more a way to chuckle about Iowa State again.

That would be a daunting, tedious task to say the least. That said, there’s a fair amount of archive data including zone forecasts at (don’t laugh): https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml If you had a specific date(s) in mind, but I realize there’s almost zero chance of that.

Disclaimer: The above is neither an endorsement nor a condemnation of Mr. Lindell.