TimB
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Everything posted by TimB
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Also, yet another ridge is building over the Midwest on that panel.
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So it’s come to not only posting a 384 hour GFS map, but having to extrapolate it, to have any hope in December.
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I’m curious what @Blizzard of 93’s thoughts are on the 12z GFS.
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Western PA/Pittsburgh Winter 2021/22 Discussion
TimB replied to meatwad's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Our last 2” snowfall was February 9th. Today will be day #299 without a 2 inch or more snowfall, which will rank 24th all time. Get to 316 and we crack the top 10, which currently includes 4 different times this century. -
Western PA/Pittsburgh Winter 2021/22 Discussion
TimB replied to meatwad's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Wednesday looks DOA at this point. And it’s hard to buy what some runs of the operational models are trying to sell for the upcoming weekend when they are so badly out of sync with the ensembles. We need a massive pattern change. -
In short, yes. And it’s a downgrade from 0z.
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It’s slipping away, unless one believes the GFS. I’m hesitant to buy what the Euro is trying to sell me for next weekend, because the general pattern just doesn’t seem conducive to it.
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Best yet, the weekend is now in play…
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I mean if this thing does end up sliding south, I’d rather it slide way south so the MA folks don’t steal all the snow.
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Way too early to give up when some models still show a decent snowfall.
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The coldinista in me would take 30s and dry over 50s-60s and rainy (and maybe even over 50s-60s and dry), and a colder solution does cut into any chance of a +8 December.
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Maybe it can trend 500 miles SE too. 6z GFS has the front clear through by then.
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Indeed, I almost forgot how many times I’ve been worried about a storm being rain and then it ultimately misses south. I think the last real storm of last winter did that (the one in late Feb following the storm that badly missed north). With that being said, as you stated, the GFS still presents an interesting solution and has been extremely consistent on nearly the entire pattern for days.
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That’s a massive shift. Saw that on the Ukie as well. A cold but dry midweek looks very possible. Which will be good for canderson’s cat and Ahoff’s flight.
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Wait, did this thing more or less disappear from the Euro last night?
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For what it’s worth, CPC’s week 3-4 outlook is .
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Euro jams that weekend cutter through the Midwest and ensures the warm weekend everyone else is on board with, though it’s quite cold on the back end.
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Still, no indications of much good over the next two weeks.
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At the end of the day it’s not as horrible as some runs have been.
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High temps in the teens across the Midwest under that ridge? What am I missing?
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Yes, the duration of the heat wave was reduced significantly. There’s a huge ridge behind that trough, so we’ll see how fantasyland plays out.
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Clown range GFS has been trending better it seems. Probably so it can punch us in the gut when it trends back the other way at 12z.
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Not sure if he has a cat. Maybe he can enlighten us.
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I believe the big island summits in Hawaii are currently under a blizzard warning for “snow showers” accumulating a foot or more with 120 mph winds.
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Interesting how badly the GFS and Euro continue to diverge by next weekend. GFS still a complete torch, Euro has a low tracking across the M/D line.
