SnowenOutThere

They are so bright too

20 degrees out

12z GFS looks a bit more like the Euro ones.

Well that de-escalated quickly

I think there are three distinct camps beginning to form, the first one is like the 18z GFS which has a very far north low pressure system with no high to pump cold into the northeast. Second camp has the energy forming a costal with blocking in place, like the 12z GFS. Finally the last camp is like the 12z Euro that holds the energy back in the southwest.

Slight run on run change

The GFS is far more similar to the 0z run but the low is slightly too far west. However, the high stays entrenched in Canada the whole storm making it very close, especially for November.

Thought it looked off compared to the other globals, snow is snow though.

0z Euro gives everyone a solid 2-4 inches of snow Black Friday. 0z Canadian has some ice then rain and 0z GFS gets close to a mixed event.

Thought it might be that so wanted to see if it was, thanks for the update.

On pivotal the new GFS ensembles has DC at an inch of snow. Maybe at @CAPE can post the individual panels? It has trended more snowy from last night, then again it's over 200 hours out.

Don't tell Maestrobjwa. I've been learning more about pattern and more technical stuff this season with these early storm possibilities. I mean with a -NAO and 50-50 low shouldn't that allow the pattern to slow down and give us some blocking which helps storms not run out to sea. Would that mean the main concern would be not enough cold air in place because of climo and a not great PAC pattern?

Lots of spread on if there will even be a storm but the general pattern looks interesting on the ensembles. Would be fun to be able to track something this early.

There is no way a met should post an outlook that has such low snowfall totals. Not only are you banking on the pattern being a dumpster fire the whole winter but also there being no lucky storms that thread the needle. This year it also looks like we will have a good pattern for December and with totals that low you only need one 6+ storm and your forecast is out.

Would this give the pattern above extra staying power allowing it to last from sometime in early December into early January?

https://giphy.com/gifs/giphyqa-zk0zTXQY5ukCs

28 degrees out at 7am

That’s my main concern, with a crazy -epo I think suppression is the main villain of the story.

Right on the boundary, sorta feels like it might be a repeat of what happened to the midweek wave. Still interesting to see it show up

I might be losing it but I think I just saw some flurries, was driving near Dulles to a swim meet and saw some snowflake looking things flying around.

Yep, 0z GFS shows a possible path to some snow for the lowlands, has the southern sortwave make it higher up the coast due to the NS energy staying further north and less "flat". It also appears to slow down the northern energy helping the southern part up the coast. The 6z GFS shows like @CAPE said a scenario where the northern shortwave acts to squash the southern energy before it can make it far enough up the coast. This is further worsened by the northern energy coming in faster and less consolidated. The trends to watch for this time period IMO (which probably isn't worth a lot) would be to see the northern energy become less stretched out and slow down a bit in relation to the southern wave, which would allow it to make it's way up the coast.

Looks like two tornadoes are hitting Richmond from the remnants

Merry Thanksgiving

Its November 9th

GFS gets close but ultimately the second piece of energy drops in too late and kicks out the low to the east, the southern stream also needs to become a bit more amped. Without a -NAO (and it being in November) we are gonna need to thread the needle.