SnowenOutThere

Now I like that gfs run way more than 12z. Less complicated and not missing to our NE. Yes lower ceiling but as is also less likely to completely screw us over

And its right next to February 20th! Storms always go well near that date and never fall apart within four days!

How do you even get this sounding? What sort of meteorological setup gets you this?

There's reason to be optimistic but I really can't buy into this being a real significant snowstorm till we get inside two days. Additionally, I'm at UVA so I'd need something truly crazy to get snow out of this. Sorta nice to not worry about this one

Now THIS is how you thread the needle!

Begging people to not get invested in a late season Miller B to get a major winter storm. It's more than possible but unless you're north of PSU its not worth it to get invested till we got the track down to an atypically south storm! Hoping it works out for you guys but we've seen how this normally plays out!

Nah I don't got a dog in this fight. I'm in Cvill lmao

CMC shows the potential danger of instead having too strong of a low that is located too far west. Once again, its a thread the needle event so we just got to wait and see.

Then I don't want this thread to be clogged with people complaining IF the Miller B does its normal thing.

Listen, this storm is a loss for me. I know that and frankly I've had my fill of snow and ice when walking on grounds. I'm forecasting for NOVA for this storm.

Once again to illustrate this point look at the snowfall distribution 6z vs 12z. 6z on top 12 on bottom. Yes it still snows for most of the subforum. However, notice where the snowfall max is located. We went from a north south gradient to a more typical Millar B NE/SW gradient. This is fine; however, its the first indication that we could see this go the way of a normal Millar B. I do not endorse this run of the GFS but it is something to be wary of going forward. In my opinion we want a stronger and more southern initial low pressure and do not want to root for a weaker low even if it is more south as it will simply require more time to develop and be more likely to miss to our NE.

On its own this run is fine. However, if you step this another time that intense snow band will only go further north/east and possibly end up as the classic miller B late developer.

Eh I disagree that it is a good step. If we were to move one more tick this way we lose enough intensity to really get good CCB and dynamic cooling. I would prefer a stronger and more south storm than a weaker and more south storm.

GFS will probably be worse. Less intense vort/upper low over the plains

By rug pulls I mean the storm itself disappears. Personally, I am hesitant to think this will be a major snowstorm especially for where I'm at. If I was up in NOVA I'd be a bit more excited though still waiting.

Been studying for my test today in 30 minutes so haven't been paying too much attention to the models but this sums up my thinking. Besides the December and one January storm every other setup seemed more likely to fail than not. Honestly, I've checked out of tracking since Jan 25th because nothing ever showed likelihood even close to that! This is the first storm since then where everything checks out. The models are bouncing around but never too far from a snowstorm, the pattern itself checks out, and its unlikely that it completely rug pulls. Will be paying more attention throughout the rest of the week.

Its near the end of winter. I think starting that thread way out in December for next year might be better as it allows it to become established for all the main threats.

On topic to this storm but look to clinch between .8-.9 inches of rain. Going to see the streams quite happy with that and the remaining snowmelt. Hopefully will hike out Tuesday to some waterfalls!

Theres an old climate map/document from the 1970s discussing West Virginia's winter climate and it had several of its peaks reaching 160in+ snowfall amounts. I wonder how much that has changed in the meantime.

I remember the 2024 November elevation dependent storm as another example. I drove up to the Catoctins and the base of the mountain had white rain. After driving up to the trailhead you could see the areas further uphill had accumulations on trees/logs while even 100 ft below there was nothing. Hiking up the critical point was 1200ft where it went from barely anything to sticking to most surfaces coated. I could literally look uphill and see several inches more snow compared to downhill where it was barely a coating. Once past 1500ft it all turned into 5 inches of snow and howling winds. Crazy part is just 50-100 years ago you could move that elevation line down to around 500ft! That would've been a snowstorm for most of MD down to point of rocks! Instead, it was reserved for our few remaining mountaintops that had enough elevation to starve off the warmth.

I mean in a way you can think of every year as the snow line slowly moving upwards in elevation. You would now need an extra 1000ft or so to get the same snowfall averages of pre climate change.

This winter has seemed like a lot of it’s a week away threats. Ofc, none of them had high probabilities of hitting but the fact only one of them (and it was the only STJ wave so higher confidence further out) did anything is pretty unlucky.

According to the cameras it’s snowing up at snowshoe! Glad to get some verification of this thread

My final point on this is this equation. Feel free to ignore it, discard it, call it wrong or whatever else. Just think through what it might be saying IF its true (which for the record it is and is in a textbook from a hundred years ago!)