SnowenOutThere

I mean this sounding from the Catoctins really says it all. Though, it appears if you're able to keep the column cool it will be dumping with a saturated atmosphere up to 500mb and good lift in the DGZ

If you're also trying to just sit down and relax a bit instead of hiking the whole time then that trail isn't super great as theres no campsites or anything off it. Instead I would recommend https://www.alltrails.com/explore/recording/afternoon-hike-at-black-rock-via-the-appalachian-trail-7f8dfc1 (Black Rock Via Appalachian trail) as its both right off route 70 which is nice and the Annapolis rock outlook has picnic tables nearby (additionally Black rock outlook has a overhang you can stay under which is sheltered).

Before I forgot I wanted to upload some pictures I got of DC a couple days ago as a sendoff to November

This setup reminds me a bit of a hike I went on in the Catoctins last November around this time. Here is a link to the hike I went on which tried to maximize the amount of time I would stay at high elevation while reducing the amount of high elevation road I had to travel up. There's a very long stretch of +1500 feet and you get to start down at 800ft and hike up into it which was awesome. Let me know if you want more details and the link to the hike is here: https://www.alltrails.com/explore/recording/afternoon-hike-at-cat-rock-yellow-trail-to-catoctin-blue-trail-7b13b22?u=i&sh=vrjjqd

True, but if this storm was a couple degrees colder it’s quite possible we’d be looking at least a slop storm to an actual snowstorm.

Just checked radar and wow! Is anything even close to reaching the surface?

Not to preemptively call it but I don't think the GFS is going to be what we need it to be.

I think this is the bigger issue, we don't have the same cold press timing we had previously. Even on the amped runs its a lot more thread the needle cold. That said, its not worth throwing in the towel yet as I think some snow somewhere is likely unless it stays amped.

I think there's some interesting stuff going on up at the H5 levels that is leading to the surface differences between the Euro and GFS. If we look into the Euro's H5 it has a northern piece of energy which destructively interferes with the developing coastal as it seems to string it out. Meanwhile, the GFS firstly deemphasizes this piece of energy and secondly absorbs what's left of it into the system which obviously creates a more amplified storm. At this point who knows which ones is correct but I think is something to watch for

Euro looks weaker out west and slightly more confluence in the east.

I like how its a more traditional coastal look than just moisture flow from the gulf

We lost the 850s before the storm started so will be icy instead of snowy.

Wonder if the 5th has any potential as the GFS has another shortwave take a similar path but looks to get shredded

Ice wise for the southwestern areas it would be freezing rain in the upper 20s so may be legit enough to cause issues.

GFS looks to have a bit more confluence so may be a bit cooler

No matter what it was a fun 24 hours of serious tracking. That said, the confluence is just not timed with the storm anymore so it’s probably over.

Well the euro Ai is pretty much ots again

Wonder if the seasonal deamp trend will kick in soon or if this will be the storm to break it

Looks a tad bit deamped with maybe a bit more confluence which honestly may give us more breathing room

Yeah I think it just doesn’t show freezing rain for some reason

Oh Im at hour 144 and thought it might be a bit better

Damn I thought we were canceling December and winter as a whole 3 days ago

How much did uva get for that storm? Besides it’s not finals yet so who knows.

Would get me out of my chem exam the 3rd so I’m happy with it