WXNewton

The RGEM like the ICON moves a second wave of snow through after the first storm. This feature might be something to watch over the next few days to see if there is additional potential there.

Even though there is a precip min back here in the west on the ICON, the trend here over the past few runs suggest that the moisture is slowly progressing back to the sw a little more each run and the low pressure over the gulf is further sw each run and a little slower. I would think over time this progression would lead to more phasing of the low over the gulf and we would see precip totals ramp back up more in the west. The GFS is slowly making that same progression, it's not much but over the next three days it might make a big difference. Just my .02

There was a storm here in Jan of 2018 which had a similar projected trajectory as this one. The models struggled with the lee side up until right before the storm and I believe the HRRR was the first to show it, but we developed a lee side low which enhanced the moisture and actually had a decent storm here. I'll try to find the map on it. This was the storm... https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/event/?e=627 https://climate.ncsu.edu/blog/2018/01/rapid-reaction-seasons-third-snow-did-things-its-own-way/

I can say a lot of times for HKY the amount of precip in a rain storm has been pretty spot on. I've compared it to my rain gauge many times and it's been with-in a tenth of an inch. So maybe as far as storm QPF it's not too terrible from my personal experience.

I know the SREFs get tossed out a lot, but right now between cycles there isn't much else to discuss so here's another snow mean trend to look at of tonight's latest and the 15z run.

Yeah could be...if the models don't start expanding back our way by lunchtime tomorrow, us back out west might be toasted.

Yeah I looked at precip amounts, def was further south but also less precip than lunchtime.

GEFS out to 60 looks juicier than OP, we shall see how well they agree.

Filled in the snow hole back here in the west, I'll take that as a plus for MBY for the time being.

CMC Ens. Actually trended a lot better for many.

I agree, I think we will see more precip in our area than what most of the models are currently depicting.

So are you thinking QPF will increase as we get closer to the storm vs the model QPF output we are seeing now? Once the models figure out the exact track of the low pressure will we see this translate to more of a widespread precip on the surface maps?

Canadian actually is improving some each run, filling in more moisture each run. Last 3 runs...

ICON seems to be trending the energy back south and west each run.

Looking at the EPS since last Thursday, the position of the low pressure system over the Gulf Coast hasn't really changed faster or slower.

The trend for now suggests that 12z might be even quicker and less moisture, but once that stops I think starting on Monday evening and the last 24 hrs of runs before the storm we will see everything correct back. Just my opinion, I have cliff dived many times over the years in the 48-90 hr timeframe just to come back in at the last minute. If I remember correctly the Dec storm of 2018 did this same thing and the first model to latch on to a bigger storm in the short range was the HRRR. It's not ideal to see this happening and it wrecks your emotions but I do believe more changes are coming for the worse and then better again.

EPS is going to be weaker and more strung out. We go through this volatility with the models every time when we are about 4 days from the storm. I suspected this was coming, but also don't believe it will be the end result either.

Yeah cut totals quite a bit back west, it looked like precip was lighter at first and storm moved through a little quicker.

18z to 00z

Honestly, the CMC was a pretty big increase for more folks than what it appears. The lee side of the mtns dropped the most and most totals increased from Catawba County east.

Here's the latest blend of all the models.

Was just getting ready to mention they improved slightly over previous runs. Also, it seems like every winter storm possibility has some model inconsistencies in this 4-5 day range. Weaker and more strung out, but as it gets closer they always seem to trend back NW and little stronger. The overall picture has not changed, there is energy coming and there is cold air available. Time will tell how it plays out, but going all in on one or two runs right now or throwing in the towel makes no sense when there are still so many solutions on the table.

4" or greater in a 24 hr period on the latest SREF. If this would continue, it seems to be on a great trajectory for a lot of NC and VA.