Soooo. We realistically are still too north for the weekend system right? Kinda seems like a northern feature has sped up and is now phasing with the ejected cutoff and pumping up the SE ridge enough to just about get precipitation up this way? Would love an expert's opinion here lol
Comparing the GFS to all other models for this upcoming storm might be the worst gap I've ever seen. We really need to retire it and invest more into our modeling here ... Oof. Unless it wins a coup and is correct but doubt it.
Yeah. It's the 2nd worst verification score for medium range models I think. Definitely not believing it's output this model run, but I guess it does show probably the best outcome up here because I doubt anything can overcome high pressure as strong as what's progged.
Verbatim, if something like the latest Canadian happens, wouldn't the thermodynamics for lake effect be nuclear given the Arctic air mass? Doubt that happens though but the timing of the cold air could allow for that.
Doesn't mean much, but seems like next week's storm has continued to trend north. Looks like better spacing with this weekends storm. Doesn't look particularly strong tho but something to watch.