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Ephesians2

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  1. Ephesians2
    From Blacksburg AFD: 00z RAOB still indicates a shallow warm layer just above the surface and below 850mb, which would indicate a brief period of rain occurs at the onset of the precipitation. Any rain should be brief as indicated by the wet bulb temperature, which supports all snow once the column completely saturates. Looks like this was expected. We should be fine.
  2. Ephesians2
    First flakes (although very light and might have had a brief period of drizzle first) No hours of virga this time.
  3. Ephesians2
    Probably too late to matter but Euro is a hold, maybe even a bit wetter than 18z. Don't have Kuchera but:
  4. Ephesians2
    Yep, not as much as last night but some accretion on elevated surfaces here. Sitting at 29, 3 degrees colder than NWS hourly forecast
  5. Ephesians2
    WSWs just dropped for VA from Roanoke to RIC
  6. Ephesians2
    0z HRRR - a bit of an increase overall from 18z but like the NAM and 3k especially in the south side of the RIC metro
  7. Ephesians2
    3k NAM is lighter with precip but still a step up from 18z.
  8. Ephesians2
    Also, we have to give the ICON a lot of credit on this one. There were a few runs a couple days ago where it was the ONLY model showing accumulating snow.
  9. Ephesians2
    Central VA generally doesn't do well with anything other than an already developed low moving into cold air. For example, the second Feb 2010 storm was either a total whiff or a light event here. That's why I'd, based on pure semi-educated guess, lean towards a lower total. The precip has to develop mostly over us due to the coastal/ULL. I'd love to be proven wrong though lol
  10. Ephesians2
    00z NAM is going to absolutely pummel RIC especially south side of RIC metro. It also keeps precip around for longer
  11. Ephesians2
    That's awful. I really don't have the words to say, except that our family will be praying for your wife and yourself as well.
  12. Ephesians2
    Local Lynchburg meteorologists as well as the Blacksburg NWS are staying pretty conservative (all are saying 1-3). Interestingly Richmond meteorologists and the Wakefield NWS have higher totals which leads to the weird cutoff with watches versus advisories and in the NWS snow maps. Of course a 1-3" deal still could happen and honestly its my gut feeling, but if the Euro is right, a lot of people will be very surprised tomorrow and there could be quite a mess in Lynchburg/Roanoke.
  13. Ephesians2
    The last few years have just been very paltry everywhere, so there's more random variation with one or two storms versus six or seven. Lower numbers = higher standard deviation. Like in 2011- 2012, Central Virginia got a random storm that dropped 4-8" and ended up with more snow than DC/Baltimore. That was the only snow that winter. If we're moving back into a more favorable climo, we will go back to a more normal regional distribution.
  14. Ephesians2
    Love your posts. What do you think about the Euro? Seems like an outlier (and to a lesser extent the NAM 3k) in holding to a relatively weak storm that doesn't bring accumulating snow outside of the Smokies and eastern NC? What are the differences between the way the Euro develops the system and the GFS/Canadian/ICON/HRRR? I imagine it's a stronger trough over New England and/or a weaker shortwave?
  15. Ephesians2
    Lynchburg, VA 12.05.2025 - 3.4" Total 3.4"
  16. Ephesians2
    Just measured 3 inches exactly. Grass is covered and still have some light snow.
  17. Ephesians2
    2.2"
  18. Ephesians2
  19. Ephesians2
    OK, that's enough. No more north shifts lol
  20. Ephesians2
    Big Improvement on the Canadian for Monday
  21. Ephesians2
    The CMC looks a lot closer for the Monday potential, as in it is not completely out to sea anymore
  22. Ephesians2
    It seems to have a stronger storm and less positively tilted trough, but also trended way south with the confluence over eastern Canada/New England
  23. Ephesians2
    Actually looks like the jackpot's going to be in North Carolina with moderate snow into Central VA, which doesn't seem like a terrible situation to be in at this range
  24. Ephesians2
    CMC noticeably north again. Northern edge of the precip shield in Central VA vs NC last run
  25. Ephesians2
    CMC made a substantial shift north with the Friday event. It still isn't close enough for anyone on this forum, but it's only about 100 miles away from a hit versus 400 miles
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