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Ephesians2

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Everything posted by Ephesians2

  1. Ephesians2
  2. Ephesians2
    RNK's map had you starting at 3-5 and me at 5-7. Looks like precip is moving in more quickly than anticipated.
  3. Ephesians2
    37/7 in Lynchburg. Clouds thickening to the West.
  4. Ephesians2
    Huge divergence between NAM and HRRR QPF for Central VA. NAM cut QPF in half versus its last run.
  5. Ephesians2
    RGEM ticks to the south and bumps up QPF - 11.1" at RIC on Kuchera. It's a tight gradient just south of there though.
  6. Ephesians2
    NAM was showing basically nothing 24 hours ago, right? Also, from what I've heard it tends to have a north bias. I think it's an improvement and definitely better than where we thought it be going a couple of days ago. 2-4" with some sleet and ZR will stick around a while with the advertised temperatures. I got 4" with the second Jan 2022 storm, including an inch of sleet, and it stuck around for two weeks with warmer temperatures than what we are seeing on models.
  7. Ephesians2
    Jan 2019 seems the closest, at least that I can think of. https://www.stmweather.com/blog/current-events/winter-storm-january-11-13-2019
  8. Ephesians2
    I was in Fredericksburg for Jan 2022 and got 15". Other than that, the only 10"+ storm I remember clearly is the 2016 blizzard. I have very vague glimpses of the 2009-2010 winter despite being 7 years old then, because I was a weather nerd, my parents got me a 3-year weather observation book for my 7th birthday
  9. Ephesians2
    CMC is a step in the right direction as well. Confluence further south. Snow jackpot and QPF max now over Fredericksburg, not DC. Verbatim, not exactly what we want in Central VA, but it's an improvement - the 6" line is roughly from Charlottesville to Hanover County. I'm liking these trends.
  10. Ephesians2
    GFS went slightly south. Not exactly where we want it - but an appreciable shift.
  11. Ephesians2
    FWIW ... map from local Lynchburg TV meteorologists
  12. Ephesians2
    The GFS does not cave. Going to be virtually identical to 12z. Also significantly drier than other models.
  13. Ephesians2
    On the other hand, the RGEM looks like a *slight* step back, but basically unchanged (mostly sleet/ice with 1-3" in Central VA). It's a DC/NoVA jackpot with the 6" line near Fredericksburg
  14. Ephesians2
    ICON is a significant improvement and gives Richmond area some snow from the Coastal as well.
  15. Ephesians2
    NAM isn't great, but an improvement. It brings some snow into Central VA, but still mostly sleet/ZR. Hoping it's overamplified as I've heard its bias is.
  16. Ephesians2
    Just got a nice squall in Lynchburg - quick coating on grass and car tops. Not in the forecast from NWS or commercial sites.
  17. Ephesians2
    Flurries in Lynchburg.
  18. Ephesians2
  19. Ephesians2
    UKMET is beautiful - south of 00z. R/S line south of Richmond the whole event.
  20. Ephesians2
    It looks like a very wet run as well. This would be a lot of sleet south of the immediate DC suburbs, and significant ice in Central VA
  21. Ephesians2
  22. Ephesians2
    I hope we can get a couple of inches of snow before the flip to ice. If so, it will definitely stick around a while.
  23. Ephesians2
    We did - it's going to be heaviest DC north. Verbatim - it's mostly an ice event in Central VA.
  24. Ephesians2
    Let's hope we don't lose the GFS completely.
  25. Ephesians2
    I don't want to post this in the main thread because they didn't like the run, but this doesn't look bad for Central Virginia at all with the standard medium/short-term north trend, and with other models like the ICON and Euro with the jackpot in DC area.
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