Ephesians2
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Looking at 108h on the 12z Euro, I see: - surface low 100 miles west of 06z - 996 mb on the 12z, 1004 mb on the 06z Also at 102h, I see a 500mb low that is over 100 miles southwest of 06z, as well as being less positively tilted and better organized. What am I missing? Sure it's not enough, and not as good as the runs from a couple of days ago, but I don't think it's time to throw in the towel yet.
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102h- closed off low over east TN Looks like it's about 50 miles east across the board
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12z CMC at 96h somewhat less amplified and further east
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One glimmer of hope might be provided by the fact that most of the models have a strong negative NAO and a west-based block for this period. The beach blizzards of 2018 and 2022 were both pacific driven cold patterns with no blocking. Perhaps a block will help capture the shortwave and make it slow down and amplify more instead of being more progressive and sliding offshore. Or maybe it'll suppress it more. I don't know lol
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I really wish we had the Euro on our side and not the GFS But at least not everything is trending in the wrong direction!
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At 75h, the northern stream energy definitely looks a bit west of 06z. I have no idea how this changes things but its noticeable
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Blacksburg AFD from this evening:
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Yep - we did really well in early December, then reverted back to our climo with the latest storm. It is what it is, and that sleet pack isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
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If that's "not a hit", you all are either pretty spoiled by this last storm or from New England
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Come on... it would be almost funny if these slop weather pages didn't get ad revenue and clicks for posting ridiculous nonsense like this (and make everyone else think the weather is basically not predictable at all) ...
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Precip type struggles aside, it was a whole lot better than the GFS.
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EPS southeast of 06z but still with some more tucked members. definitely a big step back on the snowfall mean - went from 4" in DC at 10:1 6z to 2"
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Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion
Ephesians2 replied to RIC Airport's topic in Mid Atlantic
I think suppression or an OTS track is more likely. We likely have a very strong -NAO and a +PNA ridge centered in the interior west. Seems very different from this week. -
What was your total? I think that if I had been able to measure properly last night, it would have been close to 5-6 inches total, but it all just compacted into a glacier under the sleet.
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01.24-25.2026 4.3" (depth, but don't have objective justification for anything higher since I was asleep when it flipped) Total 12.5"
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Precip shut off in Lynchburg, VA - snow/sleet depth measured in multiple locations is 4.3", mostly sleet. Probably got close to 2 inches of snow before the flip and 3-4" of sleet which pulverized the dry snow. Only a trace of freezing rain which is a welcome blessing. Certainly a memorable storm that will stick around for a while.
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Moderate/heavy sleet with temps at 23 degrees in Lynchburg, VA. Had a period of ZR with lighter rates, but really only a glaze of ice. Not much precip left. Central/Southern VA as well as the NC Piedmont seem to really have dodged a bullet.
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Back to sleet with heavier precip. Seemingly rate dependent.
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Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion
Ephesians2 replied to RIC Airport's topic in Mid Atlantic
Unfortunately the slug of precip from the west just started here (Lynchburg, VA) and it is Freezing Rain. -
Just flipped to ZR in Lynchburg, surface temperature at 22.
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Still pouring sleet an hour south of you - surface temps have risen from 14 to 16 in the last hour or so. No sign of freezing rain. I'm really not sure what the total is, but it's at least 2 inches of sleet so far. Depth is about 3.25 inches or so. Whatever snow fell before about 1-2 AM last night has been compacted under a lot of sleet.
