Spanks45
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Everything posted by Spanks45
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We might finally be onto something...every model has had something now for a few days, hit or miss the players are still there. The ensembles are coming around and we are in the 6-8 day range. What do you say, 10-20% of some sort of impact along the east coast at this point?
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Reading back on previous coastal storms over the past 6+ years tells you why you do not want to bullseye 5+ days out...lets keep the storm around and worry about west and east within the 36-72 hour range...
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Consider it snakebitititus, but the concern is it starts backing off and looking more like the GEFS longer range...reminds me of just a few weeks ago. Hopefully no setbacks as we are pushing into February now...the sun this morning felt warm, the clock is starting to tick now...
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ok, maybe I was a little vague, they actually look good day 10-13/14ish, then you can see the trough in the east eroding as the trough from Alaska down through the west coast re-establishes itself. It has been showing this the past couple of days it seems. Who knows what is going to happen, I just don't like seeing the trough out west with a ridge near Hawaii, we just spend what seems like half the winter in the position....
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GEFS continue to look horrible past day 10, hopefully they are wrong....
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and now 2.54" per hour rate, up to 1.24" now, what season is this?
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1.45" per hour rates right now, 1.14" total so far in the Davis, will check the stratus when it is done
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43 and heavy rain, entire yard is flooded, snow is hanging tough, but should vaporize shortly
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It seems like the more hi-res the models become, plus the input of more atnospheric data each run is creating the crazy jumps in the OP runs past Day 3. Maybe it actually isnt that way using verification scores, but it just seems to be more variability in that 3-5 day window in recent years. Not trying to stir the pot, but maybe CC is wreaking some havoc in there...
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I think the Euro at 6z and 18z have the right idea, all models should just be run fully out to 90 hrs, ensembles out to 144 and call it a day. It seems to be a giant waste of time and money(I would assume) to run these models out to 360+ hours when they have such a low percentage of verification. I assume it is for the commodities market, not necessarily for the weather weenies....
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The GEFS at the moment, especially now on the 18z are almost repeating what happened with the "great" look in the long range...trough in the east, cold coming, but as we start inching closer day by day, that trough shifts westward and we end up with a ridge in the east...hope its wrong, but it is almost like we have seen this story before, not too long ago...
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Well we all know what solution wont happen now....lol, why cant that show up inside of 48 hours!
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when next week goes down the toilet, we can just pretend it was January....
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And somehow, non of them will be right....
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Euro looked a bit better too, not really snowy, especially around here, but different I suppose...
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That is exactly what I have experienced since moving here....My next move needs to be close by, but might have to move north west of here, at least they get more snow on average, might not be the "big" ones though
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CMC looks different around that time period too, looks to be some blocking that is forcing that storm south. GFS, not so much....
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and with this winter, add a side of EEE in March and who knows how many ticks....We need some Alaska cold
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Cooler to start, warmer right afterwards....overall a net loss, meh down here on this run
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Actually has some heavy snow here 0z on Sunday...looks colder for what it is worth
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Quite the Pig hanging out in Alaska over the next 10-15 days....hopefully we score something this weekend and/or get "lucky" otherwise it is going to get rough around here.
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4ish days out, it's the GFS with a developing coastal, I will assume that it gets the right idea Friday night....We are somewhat close to 32 degree power problems, we shall see. It is January and not March
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Still a kid when it comes to snow...hoping our 42 degree torch doesn't melt it all. It will freeze solid tonight and become almost too fast for my younger kids....
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Why can't that model find a nut from time to time....it is at least nice to see something close on all of the models
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What a torch, at this rate the snow will be gone by mid afternoon....42.1° atm
