I totally expect this to be the case until proven wrong, and I hope I am wrong sooner rather than later...It just is not our winter, 3-4 days out but there are more reasons why that last system cuts into the lakes and rains for most. I assume most north of NYC sees some frozen prior, but 1 inch of slushy mix is not that exciting, especially followed by heavy rains.
At least the GFS came south a bit from 6z.....