Spanks45
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Everything posted by Spanks45
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The lower heights keep shifting deeper into Florida past day 10, at least today it looks more like a cold and dry time period. Congrats Mid Atlantic? Hopefully just a blip though....wait for the EPS, GEPS was no help
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At the same time it brings more ringing into Alaska, seems like a whole scale shift. Maybe just a blip, but it does give us a different look for the day 10-15 day period on this particular run.
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Watching the last 24 hrs of the GEFS, 12z today does have a distinct shift SE of the block around day 10. Could be a hiccup or the start of a trend? Who knows at this point...
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And just like that the wind picked up, was quiet until about 10 minutes ago...temp up to 52⁰
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We could use some blocking to our northeast to slow the pattern down a bit. Otherwise it's the paper shredder....
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It finally gets rid of the cutter city look, only to replace it with the congrats Gulf coast states look while we freeze the ponds over and solidify our brown yards. Hopefully the answer lies in between. Some SWFEs and clippers would be ok to start of the first couple weeks of December....
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The air was actually quite dry....my valley location actually started raining at 33.7°. The winds finally broke through and pushed out temps up to 50°
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The OP runs of both the Euro and GFS remind me of the cold/dry warm/wet pattern.....I feel like when that starts to show up, there always seems to be a surprise within those runs. Maybe one of those warm systems ends up running below us and we end up with more wintry weather, or even a good old SWFE for the region. Lots of cold air to the north might work out for one of those.....
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I think it might be a black oak, we have a pin oak in our front yard that still has some leaves, but not to this extent. Sorry to hear about the tick diagnosis. I hate those things, with 4 kids running, it is sadly something that needs to be assessed on almost a daily basis. Hope the meds clear it up quickly!
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Planting my spring bulbs is definitely happening, although all of my shaded ground is now frozen solid about 2 inches down....The sun has done wonders today, almost warm
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It wasn't producing enough acorns so the gnawed the branches off.... There was a line of spruces that were badly damaged when the tornado went through in 2018. The prior owners had them all removed, leaving that side of the oak bare.
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This tree is going to hold on until after Christmas....can't even pull the leaves off yet
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My comment was mostly in jest, but didn't come out that way it seems. I like the look, but will remain cautiously optimistic for now. I still need to fix my snowblower, fearful that when I do it may never snow again. I don't want to jinx anything right now, especially after last year....
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Should have known this was coming. The great block showing up was going to force everything south or just grind it up to a few flurries. There will at least be chances, all you can ask for going into December....
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Without looking back, I feel like the UK showed this type of outcome yesterday @ 12z?
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GEFS @ 12z today continue showing less of a "pig" out in the 10-15 day range. Almost completely replacing it with a ridge and a trough in the east....hope it continues this look as we move closer
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13.6⁰, first morning the furnace had to kick on....wood stove couldn't keep the house warm enough overnight
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almost looks like a steady stream of clippers running down that ridge in the midwest, maybe the ridging up north can slow one of those down just a bit and give us something more than a couple inches?
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Long range on the GEFS continues to look questionable....lots of blues showing up from the arctic the whole way down to Cali, can't be good. At least the Greenland blocking continues to hold on...
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Both older kids had basketball tryouts yesterday, otherwise we would have made the trek to Watertown. Closer to here and alot more Air BNBs available.... Kicking myself now, probably could have left afterwards and still beat the beginning of the band up there. Hope it snows here soon, might have to head to Vermont to find snow.
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just another ensemble member at this time frame....hopefully GEFS mean still maintains the look
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GFS going to look just a bit different this time it seems....
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GFS with quite the stormy look after Thanksgiving, even after the big weekend storm. Cold air is over us or nearby throughout the run. Could be quite the stretch, if of course the GFS has a clue. One thing has been for any warmup showing up in the 10-15 day period, has kind of disappeared as we have gotten inside of 10 days and not the other way around. Again, just a grain of salt is taken, especially this early in the season...
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Amazing the difference in look, especially being "only" 7-8 days out. One of them should start to cave fairly soon I would think. This is a pretty large scale pattern, versus a system possibly phasing or how close to the coast it might be...
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-NAO flexing a bit? Looks like the whole system slows down...
