Spanks45

I know it won't be right, but kinda like the look of the CMC for Sunday into Monday. That would at least yield some frozen precip....

That Feb 4th storm only gave me 4 inches, better than nothing I suppose. Being my second year in New England it still probably ended up being a top 10 winter in my life time growing up in Southeastern PA and Delaware...Last year was my lowest seasonal total since I moved up here in late 2014.

Forgot how terrible that season was, plus being so close to that blizzard added to the misery....

Regardless of what happens the rest of December, if we get 3 wound up coastals, dropping over a foot of rain. There will be melts of historical proportions, even from the most resilient posters. It seems as though the GFS has become the new Dr. No

There have been a few signs here and there in the discussions over the past couple days....It has been brought up that the GEFS have been handling the PAC better than the EPS recently, that might have been the sign of trouble occuring. The better pattern was always going to be when the PAC would improve, but that has been kicked for days now....Its not a pig, but when those blues keep showing up past day 10, concerns begin to creep in. As much as I want to see snow, I have to get a section of my land ready for a shed delivery the end of December. Kind of hard to do that with snow covered, frozen ground. The town took forever to get the permits approved, talk about kicking the can until the last minute.

That trough in the west just keeps building instead of going away as we go, day by day. I feel like we just experienced this recently, last year? 2020?....at some point, the trough will just keep showing up, at which the NAO will break down and we will have lost the NAO and still have no PAC to help out....Just some paranoia showing up since I have seen good patterns never make it to fruition. Hoping for some snow, but ok if we stick with status quo for now, it will snow again.....Hopefully in January

So is it 45 and rain or 35 and rain? It looks like a ton of marine puke incoming...early December climo for the modeled pattern it seems. Hopefully we get lucky, but with out any fresh cold air, it will be an uphill battle, at least through mid month

That storm tucks right up into my backyard....Honestly have seen far too many of those in the past few years, but no worries at this point. As far as weather "watching", I prefer times when modeling is chaos, while it can be gut wretching to watch. It is the thrill of the "chase", right up until the last few hours. Positive busts are preferred, but weather forecasting would probably be boring if we knew exactly what was going to happen 10 days , even 5 days out.

Block doing it's dirty work at the end of the run....bigger storm potential. With regards to next week, I would assume, until the system on the 6th is well modeled, everything behind it is going to be chaos.....

any chance that after the storm on the 6th cuts/drapes a front over the region, we end up with a stalled out boundary over the area? Hopefully at the point we get a little press to the south and we all end up on the colder side. Even set up some freezing rain or sleet with low level cold air?

The ridging in the west continues to look better in the 12-16 day range.....maybe towards the middle of the month ends up being much better around this region. The EPS was also showing a better Pacific towards the end of the run... fwiw

The lower heights keep shifting deeper into Florida past day 10, at least today it looks more like a cold and dry time period. Congrats Mid Atlantic? Hopefully just a blip though....wait for the EPS, GEPS was no help

At the same time it brings more ringing into Alaska, seems like a whole scale shift. Maybe just a blip, but it does give us a different look for the day 10-15 day period on this particular run.

Watching the last 24 hrs of the GEFS, 12z today does have a distinct shift SE of the block around day 10. Could be a hiccup or the start of a trend? Who knows at this point...

And just like that the wind picked up, was quiet until about 10 minutes ago...temp up to 52⁰

We could use some blocking to our northeast to slow the pattern down a bit. Otherwise it's the paper shredder....

It finally gets rid of the cutter city look, only to replace it with the congrats Gulf coast states look while we freeze the ponds over and solidify our brown yards. Hopefully the answer lies in between. Some SWFEs and clippers would be ok to start of the first couple weeks of December....

The air was actually quite dry....my valley location actually started raining at 33.7°. The winds finally broke through and pushed out temps up to 50°

The OP runs of both the Euro and GFS remind me of the cold/dry warm/wet pattern.....I feel like when that starts to show up, there always seems to be a surprise within those runs. Maybe one of those warm systems ends up running below us and we end up with more wintry weather, or even a good old SWFE for the region. Lots of cold air to the north might work out for one of those.....

I think it might be a black oak, we have a pin oak in our front yard that still has some leaves, but not to this extent. Sorry to hear about the tick diagnosis. I hate those things, with 4 kids running, it is sadly something that needs to be assessed on almost a daily basis. Hope the meds clear it up quickly!

Planting my spring bulbs is definitely happening, although all of my shaded ground is now frozen solid about 2 inches down....The sun has done wonders today, almost warm

It wasn't producing enough acorns so the gnawed the branches off.... There was a line of spruces that were badly damaged when the tornado went through in 2018. The prior owners had them all removed, leaving that side of the oak bare.

This tree is going to hold on until after Christmas....can't even pull the leaves off yet

My comment was mostly in jest, but didn't come out that way it seems. I like the look, but will remain cautiously optimistic for now. I still need to fix my snowblower, fearful that when I do it may never snow again. I don't want to jinx anything right now, especially after last year....

Should have known this was coming. The great block showing up was going to force everything south or just grind it up to a few flurries. There will at least be chances, all you can ask for going into December....