fujiwara79

you don't need to search too hard. the answer is staring you in the face. Underwater volcanos!

well to be fair, there's a low in the great lakes that wrecks the surface before the sub 540 clipper gets here. the clipper also tracks right over us which isn't really the ideal track. although it's been so long since we've had a clipper, it's just nice to see one, even if it's a showery clipper.

I thought December blowtorches are a hallmark of Super Ninos. Look at December 1997 and 2015.

It's crazy how IAD has so many more 90+ degree highs than DCA this summer. Maybe the drier soil out that way? I don't think I've seen such a huge disparity in 90-degree days between those two airports.

hoping for a "cold" summer....so far, so good!

Winter of 2015-16 was an awful winter but since we had one HECS we seem to remember that whole winter fondly for some reason. I remember seeing mosquitoes in December 2015 because it was downright muggy and tropical for the entire month. Our last decent winter was 2014-15. 8 years ago. If we're headed towards a Super-Nino then next winter will be terrible. A slightly increased chance of a HECS doesn't make up for the awfulness of Super-Ninos.

2011-12 was even worse than this winter. The only snow I saw was from Hurricane Sandy around Halloween.

Yes, warmer climo has pushed the baroclinic zone north. Look at Canada. In the past few decades it's been warmer and snowier up there, pretty much throughout the entire country. Who knows, maybe one day the baroclinic zone moves all the way to the arctic circle. Unless the supposed natural cycle reversal that I've been told is imminent for the past 15 years actually happens.

Yes, but past performance also doesn't predict future results. The probability of getting 0" next winter would be the same regardless of whether we had 0.4" or 50" this winter.

Well if we get a Super Nino next year, 0" is in play.

I think they're going to have to write a new volume for the KU book series. We should call it: Northeast Perfect Track Rainstorms: Volume III. Case studies and Chronicles of the New Base State.

I think northern New England has done fairly well this year. Boston is much below average, but most of Maine is pretty close to average. The difference between Boston and Portland is quite stark this winter.

99 degrees might be a low grade fever. Lack of snow can also cause those symptoms.

-NAO patterns often just involve milquetoast cold. Which is sufficient in January and February. But sometimes it's not in March, especially in our current climactic environment. I remember the March 8 2013 white rain event in DC. Temperatures in Montreal the day before were approaching 50 degrees. The storm had to rely on pure dynamics for snow, which we didn't have in DC, but southern VA actually got more snow than DC because they had rates and dynamics. Milquetoast cold + anomalously warm ocean temperatures = 33 and rain the lowlands.

it can snow in late march, but we need some actual cold air. not this milquetoast stuff we have now.

wow, so you admit to arguing in bad faith and being a partisan hack. got it. you pretty much discredited everything else in your post just by this statement. Yes, they do. The problem is that crazy randos on the Internet are even worse. you seem like the type that believes everything is a conspiracy by the WEF to have us eating bugs. There are no good or bad conditions. The earth is not a sentient being. But modern civilization didn't even exist during those times. I doubt it could have. I seriously doubt that. There is plenty of debate. But debate doesn't preclude taking action. they both kill birds, but you only seem to care if windmills do, which is odd. that was my point.

I see a few flakes too. I'm riding the waves. Sometimes you've gotta take it one wave at a time.

Narrator: Big game hunting in our new era.

Chicago has had a couple perfect track rainstorms this winter too, so it's not just us. The oceans have become saunas and probably the latent heat flux is having some impact. It's all part of the New Base State.

Oceans are on fire. We've got to figure out how to stop these underwater volcanos from continuously erupting.

NW areas still look to be in good shape during this upcoming pattern. The lowlands, maybe not. At this point, as much as I want a flush hit for everyone, it's all about our backyards.

well, to be fair, they weren't measuring temperature next to a river and jet exhaust back then.

January 3, 2022

I've been waiting all winter to post an "it's happening" gif. Please make it happen.

Yeah I've experienced PD2, Blizzard96, Jan16, and the 09-10 storms. All amazing. But the March 93 storm was an atmospheric marvel. Ironically, if the storm was just slightly less amped, it probably would have taken a more easterly track and crushed the megalopolis areas with 30" totals too. But that storm was on steroids. There were radar echos in the Gulf that were way past dark red - they were violet and white. I've never seen echoes that intense in such a large area. The 30 year anniversary is coming up!