fujiwara79

agreed, but water temps are on fire in most of the world right now, so perfect track rain/slop fests are becoming more common especially in early winter. I think it's one reason why march has been far snowier than december lately.

well, if it makes anyone feel better, this storm took a somewhat decent track for places like Milwaukee to get lambasted with snow, especially in early January. Instead, they've been getting white rain, with temps hovering in the mid 30s. Perfect track slop storms isn't just happening to us.

it was a great storm, but that was an awful, under-performing winter. I was wearing shorts for most of december 2015. february 2016 was filled with heartbreaking near misses. that winter should have delivered much more snow than it did. the snow from the blizzard completely melted in a week and we had bare grass the rest of the winter. contrast that with the winter of 13/14 -- no great storms, but an amazing winter. the last good winter we had was probably 14/15.

I think the winter of 19/20 had that north pacific death ridge. once you see that, it's over. good luck with getting that beast to move.

Imagine a time - in the not so distant future - where lake effect rain showers in January will become the norm.

Yeah, milquetoast is my new term for pacific puke. Although in our state, maybe continental polar air isn't enough for snow either.

give me either an Arctic December or a blowtorch December. At least both are interesting. But this cloudy, milquetoast airmass is the worst.

once an issue becomes politicized, facts, logic and evidence don't sway people, unfortunately. on any particular topic, 30% of the population believes in some crazy nonsensical things....and it's not always the same group of people. lots of random talks with Uber drivers make me think it's higher than 30%....but I like to have some faith in humanity

you don't need to search too hard. the answer is staring you in the face. Underwater volcanos!

well to be fair, there's a low in the great lakes that wrecks the surface before the sub 540 clipper gets here. the clipper also tracks right over us which isn't really the ideal track. although it's been so long since we've had a clipper, it's just nice to see one, even if it's a showery clipper.

I thought December blowtorches are a hallmark of Super Ninos. Look at December 1997 and 2015.

It's crazy how IAD has so many more 90+ degree highs than DCA this summer. Maybe the drier soil out that way? I don't think I've seen such a huge disparity in 90-degree days between those two airports.

hoping for a "cold" summer....so far, so good!

Winter of 2015-16 was an awful winter but since we had one HECS we seem to remember that whole winter fondly for some reason. I remember seeing mosquitoes in December 2015 because it was downright muggy and tropical for the entire month. Our last decent winter was 2014-15. 8 years ago. If we're headed towards a Super-Nino then next winter will be terrible. A slightly increased chance of a HECS doesn't make up for the awfulness of Super-Ninos.

2011-12 was even worse than this winter. The only snow I saw was from Hurricane Sandy around Halloween.

Yes, warmer climo has pushed the baroclinic zone north. Look at Canada. In the past few decades it's been warmer and snowier up there, pretty much throughout the entire country. Who knows, maybe one day the baroclinic zone moves all the way to the arctic circle. Unless the supposed natural cycle reversal that I've been told is imminent for the past 15 years actually happens.

Yes, but past performance also doesn't predict future results. The probability of getting 0" next winter would be the same regardless of whether we had 0.4" or 50" this winter.

Well if we get a Super Nino next year, 0" is in play.

I think they're going to have to write a new volume for the KU book series. We should call it: Northeast Perfect Track Rainstorms: Volume III. Case studies and Chronicles of the New Base State.

I think northern New England has done fairly well this year. Boston is much below average, but most of Maine is pretty close to average. The difference between Boston and Portland is quite stark this winter.

99 degrees might be a low grade fever. Lack of snow can also cause those symptoms.

-NAO patterns often just involve milquetoast cold. Which is sufficient in January and February. But sometimes it's not in March, especially in our current climactic environment. I remember the March 8 2013 white rain event in DC. Temperatures in Montreal the day before were approaching 50 degrees. The storm had to rely on pure dynamics for snow, which we didn't have in DC, but southern VA actually got more snow than DC because they had rates and dynamics. Milquetoast cold + anomalously warm ocean temperatures = 33 and rain the lowlands.

it can snow in late march, but we need some actual cold air. not this milquetoast stuff we have now.

wow, so you admit to arguing in bad faith and being a partisan hack. got it. you pretty much discredited everything else in your post just by this statement. Yes, they do. The problem is that crazy randos on the Internet are even worse. you seem like the type that believes everything is a conspiracy by the WEF to have us eating bugs. There are no good or bad conditions. The earth is not a sentient being. But modern civilization didn't even exist during those times. I doubt it could have. I seriously doubt that. There is plenty of debate. But debate doesn't preclude taking action. they both kill birds, but you only seem to care if windmills do, which is odd. that was my point.

I see a few flakes too. I'm riding the waves. Sometimes you've gotta take it one wave at a time.