fujiwara79

Does that mean we're "due" for a stretch of 35 consecutive colder than normal days soon? Cuz, you know, law of averages. Or something.

The GFS depicts deformation rain bands in early February. lol.

Agreed. Why are some people so scared to even mention "CC" on an atmospheric science forum. It's so sensitive that we can't even spell it out; we have to acronymize it. Politics truly has become the new opiate of the masses.

I think the overarching conclusion is that the predictive value of long-term forecasting based on analogs appears to be growing less accurate with time. We may have to come up with new indices or analogs that fit the new paradigm we're in. That super-nino pattern in California shouldn't have happened. Things aren't making sense anymore.

oceanic heat content has been increasing for decades. so you'd expect to see more episodes of oceanic ridging. it wouldn't surprise me if eventually our new prime snow climo will shift towards feb 15 - through mar 15th.

"The law of averages" is a completely man-made construct that has no basis in reality. So many gamblers have become homeless believing that fallacy.

Unless February temperatures end up significantly below average, this will be the eighth consecutive winter (DJF) that will finish with warmer-than-average temperatures. That's also the longest streak on record. We're in a historically bad period. Over the past thirty years or so, our "cold" winters usually end up at -1 or -2 below average. But our warm winters are around +4 to +6 above average. Our cold winters just aren't that cold anymore. But we've been overperforming on the warm winters.

The oceans are on fire. Despite a triple-dip La Nina, 2022 set another record for oceanic heat content. It is what it is. We will still occasionally get cold and snowy winters, but comparing analogs from the 1950s doesn't apply anymore.

Even La Nadas (2001-2, 2019-20) don't give us snow.

Sounds like Nov and Dec had a La Nina pattern, January has a Super Nino pattern, and February and March will return to La Nina. Ugh

there are still "it's just a cycle" people out there? I thought they disappeared in 2005. I thought the new argument was that warmth is good for civilization and CO2 is plant food. Oh well.

The 30-year snowfall average at DCA has decreased by 20% since 1941. But there has also been a significant increase in the 30-year wintertime precipitation average. A decrease in wintertime snow, juxtaposed with an increase in wintertime precipitation, is strong evidence that there probably are more "33 and rain" events lately - and that it's not just our imagination. Do us a favor and check what percentage of each winter's (for simplicity, use DJF) precipitation falls as frozen, and show us how that has varied over time. You'll find that the percentage of precipitation that falls as frozen has markedly decreased. Bigly.

not sure what jan 6th has to do with anything. that was a bunch of boomers and qanon losers radicalized by an orange demagogue.

you should organize and protest, then. start that anti-mask revolution. most of you only complain on the internet, but meekly comply and do nothing. there have been far more protests in europe than here. i remember last year, people predicted that there would be a rebellion if applebees was closed for another two weeks. americans would rise up and fight for their freedom to get a haircut! never happened. won't happen now either. put that mask back on.

Home Depot just announced that they're requiring masks for customers. put your mask on, snowflake. also interesting that you'd rather enrich a mega-corp instead of a small biz, all because of a mask.

B-b-b-but he has the Google Machine! Thanks to google, laymen are now experts at everything. Now we just treat doctors as middlemen that we rely on to write us prescriptions.

Maybe we should be asking you this question. You post non-stop 24/7 on this board. I'm concerned you have no life. Living off the grid in Randolph, NH can't be good for anyone's mental health. It wouldn't' surprise us if this was you in a few years: https://apnews.com/article/River-Dave-New-Hampshire-Dave-Lidstone-e0ef2fb3349a23ceebaa9e244b97eb5a

About 70% of people support vax mandates, including about 50% of republicans (to my surprise). that's probably why you saw republican politicians criticizing anti-vaxxers last week, and employers starting to mandate them recently. https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/565641-poll-68-percent-support-vaccine-mandate

I don't wear a mask these days. but that reminds me, i should get a set of KN95s for the winter!

I still find it hilarious how people thought masks were never coming back. It was always the easiest thing to bring back. i thought they'd come back in the fall, but this was even quicker than i expected. the cdc guidance from may 13th will go down in infamy as one of the worst messaging blunders in history. it'll be taught in schools decades from now as a case study in what you shouldn't do. most non-influenza pandemics last 3-5 years...it'll be best for everyone's collective psyche to accept that reality. maybe invest your Dogecoin in some innovative mask companies.

LOL....60% of this country is overweight and they've been asked to lose weight for as long as I can remember. Not gonna happen. Goobermint can't tell them what to do.

Those papers are already outdated though. I'm talking about recent data from Israel showing that people who were vaxxed in January only have 16% efficacy against symptomatic Covid. If they were vaxxed in February, it was 47%; if it was in March, it was 67%, etc. You get the picture - it clearly shows waning immunity after a certain period of time. The good news is that protection against serious disease doesn't wane as rapidly; it is still about 80% for those vaxxed in January, but even that is a drop from 98% or whatever it was. I do think waning immunity in the elderly (since they got the shots first) will be an issue going into the fall and winter. the CDC has been very sketchy lately. Apart from their ridiculous new mask guidance from back in May (which I can write a novel about as to why that made no sense), they stopped tracking breakthrough infections, so we have to rely on data from Israel, Singapore, Iceland, UK, etc to understand how variants and time affect efficacy. They also didn't declare delta a variant of concern until a full month after the rest of the world did. Very odd. That's why I think some chamber of commerce lobbying money was involved.

I never compared the two; I said natural immunity is clearly not lifelong. Not even close. But that is what some people seem to claim. Vaccine immunity is clearly not lifelong either. It appears to start waning after 6 months. I suggest interviewing the residents of Manuas, Brazil or New Delhi, India. Millions of them were re-infected by the gamma and delta variant, respectively. That "T-cell memory" thing didn't do squat for them. It certainly shocked the medical community.

Daytona is definitely redneck central. It's what happens if you moved West Virginia to the beach.

Honestly not sure why some are holding onto this idea that we can have lifelong 'natural immunity' to covid, like we get from chicken pox or measles. so many people have been re-infected that it's clear this isn't the case.