vortex95

And I will post this again for reference. Go figure! Washington DC ended a streak of 2867 days w/o 100 F reading on 6/22/2024. This is the 5th longest period on record since 1872.

DOV is indeed an ASOS (DoD run). BLM is a Federal AWOS, AO2 shows up both on ASOS and AWOS. Most AWOS are privately-owned, but that does not seem to change the equipment/sensor issues whether is Federal or private. One way you can tell a non-Federal from Federal AWOS or ASOS is the SLP group. if it is missing, that's a non-Federal AWOS. About 10 years ago. all Federal AWOS got upgraded so they basically report just like ASOS. First Federal AWOS were installed in 1989 (KILE, KPWT, and KFOD were the first I think). I attached a list of all Federal AWOS. federalawos.txt

Wow, CT today sure over-performed. 3 discrete cells (one a supecell) lined up across the state, and then a honkin' SQLN sweeps through! So who on this forum in CT got 4 separate thunderstorms today? WxWiz????

580 thickness? 60,000 ft I bet occurred w/ such a high tropopause/EL!

That's good you brought up the DP plot for the day. That 81 on the NJ coast... I think that's KBLM? That's an AWOS so that is likely very suspect.

I think we can all agree that the hype and gloom/doom everywhere is a problem. Find some common ground on an issue/debate, and work from there. If we do not quantify a problem/issue properly, then how are we supposed to handle/address it properly? Resources and $$ are finite/limited, and we know wasteful spending/graft are rife. You are not going act the best way if you are fired-up and we are fighting among ourselves! Emotional, knee-jerk reactions to problems/issues almost always end up counterproductive. Perhaps not at first, but the long-term, and the long-term is what counts. But it is a challenge for all of us to think more iong-term and in the abstract b/c we want solutions and things fixed now! Shortcoming and fallacies of human nature always are there causing their own problems. But realizing/understanding this as a base, make discussions/debates better IMHO.

Yes, I've notice that as well. The higher the DPs, the more error occurs. I looked at the the JFK obs string at that time for the 84 DP. Nothing stood out for any change for wind speed/dir or change in pres. No storms in the vicinity. Now if this was Hatteras and S, I can see DP spike up like this since the SSTs are so high, but not here.

It's a legit summer nor'easter. Sfc low not that strong, but the pres gradient N of it is quite good for July. Duration coupled w/ sig higher PWATs than other times of the year, and voila!

HRRR suggests it could be more than just those regions. I'm just talking decent tstms, not svr.

Thanks for the feedback/input. Climate hype is still rife on social media, and if you look at a lot of MSM news and wx segments, they are still pushing the gloom and doom narrative often. Also, even w/ politics shifted this country, look at a lot of rest of the world and organizations like the UN and WEF. The end of the word narrative from AGW is alive and well still. And going one step further, this is case of "bad news sells," which is apolitical, so that's what drives it a lot. The boogie man changes over time, but it's always there out to get us. In the 70s, it was pollution in general and the ice age coming, in the 80s, it was the ozone layer and acid rain, and by the 90s it switched to climate change and has not looked back. The deniliasm part is merely subset of any problem that exists and is hype or over-promoted. Par for the course. I don't like denialism as a term, as much as I don't like blindly embracing a narrative or ideology. That's a false dichotomy and suggests a lack of critical thinking. As w/ many things, the truth often lies in between. Not exactly 50-50 w/ every issue either, and things are often a lot more complex than they seem w/ no easy answers as well.

Pivotal shows a max of 7.87". Summer NAW'easter!

Looks decent for CT. Latest HRRR suggests a small bowing segment 7-9pm.

Scott rain PT.

Only Ineedsnow would say MEH to a 140 kt STY! It's the CoastalWx equivalent of saying MEH to 6/1/11.

Take a look at this short paper from 2004. Odds are it has been exceeded, and since 2004? Several candidates (Haiyan in Nov 2013 almost certainly). strongerTC.pdf

If we only have recon in these monsters. I will tell you given what recons measured from the 1940s to 1987 in the WPAC, if it was done today w/ the much more advanced tech such as GPS dropsondes and the SFMR, you want to talk records and extreme that would put all to shame what we have seen in recons in the ATLC? The few research mission recons we have had over the years in the WPAC have shown incredible stuff. Satellite estimates can only do so much. Dvorak estimates work best for TCs between 60 and 105 kt. This means two things - 1) many TDs are actually weak TSs, and 2) most very intense TCs are underestimated. The inner core of these things are strange beasts, acting more mesoscale than anything when you get to Cat 5 levels. EPAC Patricia in 2015 would have been capped at 160 kt from satellite estimate only, but recon actually found 185 kt winds. As a result of the above, TC intensities and annual ACE globally are underestimated, and the further you go back, esp. prior to the satellite era, the more off it is. And really w/ recon, we only started to see things in proper detail w/ the advent of the GPS dropsonde in the late 1990s and the SFMR in 2004. So you can't really use the database we have over the long-term for true TC trends.

Not sure if it will intensify much after passing the Marianas. It already had its first absolute peak on Fri, and now has leveled off at 140 kt. The eye is currently 30 nm in diameter which is quite large for such a low latitude and so early that far E in this tropical basin. Just saying that if you want a weenie super-duper intense TC, you want to see a pinhole eye, and Bavi never had that, and once the eye gets large, it does not go back the other way. Since the Bavi will slowly gain latitude and undergo ERCs, the eye should only increase in size. Might become an annular TC in fact (the "truck tire" look!). Annular TCs can still be intense (Isabel in Sep 2003 was 140 kt and a classic annular TC), but they tend to stay steady-sate for a long period of time once getting that structure. Ineedsnow will have live Guam radar up 100% of the time for the next several days?

One thing that is apparent, when you look at deep at historical data and wx events of the past, you find many that match or exceed anything today or in recent years. But history be damned in favor of the narrative. A friend of mine who gets the small wx calendars that you remove a page a day, he notes obvious bias as to historical wx events. He has told me it is like nothing ever happened/existed before 2000. All it talks about is extremes in recent years. So when I say "narrative," I am not pulling things out of thin air. You can see clear bias and skewed facts all over the place w/ disingenuous motives. All I am saying is that *all* data/info be reported on or put forth, esp. in the sciences, since it is objective and based on fact. Then individuals can at least make educated and reasonable points/views/opinions.

So BDL unperformed overall. GFS MOS had 103 Thu/Fri 18z 7/1 and 00z 7/2 runs and still just after was showing 101/102. Yet "only" 100 and 98 the 2 days. Wasn't due to convection or clouds. Any long-term MOS bias for BDL? I think the only reason why BOS hit 100 Fri was due to NW subsidence and the DP dropping to 57. What the MSM and others don't tell you or report is that once the dew point drops to 57 or lower, that heat index is actually *lower* than the air temp. BOS 100/57 at 3pm gave a heat index of 99.

Looking at the 04/00z NAM 700 analysis, a large area of +12 C exists over the region. 00z IAD sounding had +12.2 C at 700. +12 C at 700 typically caps things solid this time of year, at least locations near sea level. Today it cools ever so slightly at 700, and at 500 for that matter, and the ridging aloft weakens a bit. so we get more flow aloft, esp. at 700. Sfc T/Td basically the same as Fri so things should light up very well later the in aftn! CAPE 3000-4000 and decent mid-level lapse rates, so wet microbursts common. There is no 0-3 km CAPE, so tor threat is nil (LFC to high). Cloud bases should be fairly high so good photo ops. Winds 850 and below very light so storm motion may be slow and more mesoscale impacts to motion (back-building). Should see some big rains in some areas as PWATs juice up nicely right over the region during the day. Sun-Mon looks essentially the same w/ even more impressive PWATs. We do need the rain badly!

Thanks for the overview summary. Dew points often have even bigger issues than temps are ASOS/AWOS sites. I years ago looking at the OK mesonet (first installed in the mid 90s). Mesonet sites are typically sited properly and actually geared for climate data (ASOS/AWOS are geared more toward aviation). So many days when it was hot and high dew points, the ASOS/AWOS would almost universally had higher dew points than the mesonet. Well, they both can't be right! I'd take mesonet data over ASOS/AWOS the vast majority of the time. I recall about 10 years ago during a heatwave, JFK's ASOS DP got wacky and shot to 84 one day. Not sure what happened there. Also, there are so many types of wx stations our there (govt and private), all for different uses. Some are sited to monitor the local environment, like a marsh or a swamp. So what do you think the dew point will do when the equipment is next to or in a marsh/swamp? It's similar to all the marine sites out there. The anemometers are not all at the standard 10m elevation, so you have to account for this when talking records and the like. AWOS sites on oil platform heliports in the Gulf are often 100 ft or more ASL. Oh, and how about the AWOS at the smaller airports in the Corn Belt? IA has it a lot where at a certain times in the summer, the DPs get into the 80s. That is a local effect since corn has high evapotranspiration. However, at times this can impact convective initiation and intensity in the state and adjacent areas! A few papers has done studies on this. For the Persian Gulf, dew points in the 90s are a real thing in some areas. Qeshm Island (METAR code: OIKQ) in Iran is one such area. Every August in the mornings, they get ridiculous DPs in the 90s w/ heat indices as high as 180! I've checked the METARs and they are legit, given the location and how diurnally the dew point drops in the aftn as the BL mixed out. And the island's population is 149k. Quite impressive that humans can live in such an environment w/ little issues!

Nothing wrong or invalid in saying that. Mainstream narratives vary all the time, what is "in" and "out" changes, including in the sciences. Narratives for science issues are often dictated by non-science-based factors, no? Recency bias is a big one -- what is occurring now or in the recent past, is how it is and will be going forward (and the negative bias is huge). The more one looks at logical fallacies and cognitive biases, and how they influence us all and are used manipulate the population, one see things for what they really are. Also, science evolves. What is said or known now is going to change over time at various levels. There is societal arrogance that exists that we know best in the here and now and everything is figured out b/c things have come so far. That's not what history has shown. There is still a lot we do not know.

Thanks. I figured that. Heat index as a mainstream wx parameter is a relatively new (last 30 yr or so). They never talked about "feels like" temp much at all through the 1980s, local news or the NWS. We just heard, "it's not the heat, it the HUMIDITY!" Which is wrong factually. It's the "DEW POINT!" Period of record (POR) is paramount when talking wx records and historical context, something that often get ignored b/c it deflates the preferred narrative. Let me give an example. Last year, I saw a post one day something like 30 sites in TX set their all-time record high monthly temp (can't recall which month it was). In a vacuum, that was true. What they left out is since 2001, TX has added well over 100 AWOS METAR sites at airports across the state, and continues to add several each year. And many mesonet sites during this time as well, esp. in the TX PH and West TX. See the problem here? Period of record for many sites is very short, but they leave that detail out! Omission of facts is no different that lying IMHO.

Oh, I am not triggered at all. I know the main clowns on YouTube and other social media. Still, practice in calling them out w/ their methods can be a entertaining at times. Also, just sharing some critical thinking skills on "how to spot pseudoscience" and the like has value for ppl on the forum,

Again, it is about balance and handling skepticism in the proper way. It can get out of control very quickly, as you noted mentioning conspiracies. As for the media, scaring ppl into watching I find unethical and counterproductive in the end. That's what it is -- all about for profit. It wasn't always this way. And just b/c "that's the way it is" does not mean you just accept it and act like everything is ok and will be fine. So many being put into a semi-permanent state of fear or "flight or flee" mode is not healthy. I purposely over time has cut back (de-expose) myself to the MSM, b/c even if you are resilient, confident, and understand why things the way they are, the relentless negativity and hype is distracting and will test those even those w/ the strongest mettle. Being reminded constantly of all the problems/issues in the world, how is that good? And communicating this to others who may have trouble handling it all, that is a good thing b/c understanding it at least will help to assuage stress/anxiety.