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vortex95

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KDCA
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    Male
  • Location:
    MD

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  1. vortex95
    And it continues for swrn CT...
  2. vortex95
    "Car wash" rain!
  3. vortex95
    Nocturnal tstms w/ elevated CAPE often deliver big w/ LTG of all types. The crazy "quick" flickering constantly is a telltale sign! I think it is tied to the high CAPE in the mixed-phase layer of the storms. Really cranks up charge separation!
  4. vortex95
    And the most extreme example I can think of is Katrina. Down to 125 mph at at landfall, but still all-time record surge of 28 ft!
  5. vortex95
    Nocturnal tstm development is a different animal than daytime. Very quick development and not always apparent where exactly it will fire. Lots of surprises. Td 77 at DCA currently!
  6. vortex95
    Yes CGs density is excellent in nrn WV and wrn MD. So a night of near constant "flickering" seems likely some locations! I like the there is OFB headed for the metro.
  7. vortex95
    That is a lot of CAPE, and a ton elevated (wide at mid levels). Not the best EML, but 6.6 C/km 850-500 should do the job to have some solid overnight storms (for once)!
  8. vortex95
    Well, the say the same thing in the New England forum (I am from the BOS area originally), but they abbreviate it "WCWGTH?!" (why can't we get that here?!).
  9. vortex95
    And that Elba NY unreal HP supercell Wed. Look at the radar loop. Classic splitting and merging supercells and then a raging SQLN same area right after? Again, WCWGT???? At least NW flow is living up to is name for nasty cells somewhere in the NEUS.
  10. vortex95
    Also, see this ydy in wrn NY? That is *unreal* supercell structure for the East! https://x.com/voglerweather/status/2095284232893473216/ Radar loop shows classic splitting supercells and then a raging squall line into the same area. Why can't we get that?
  11. vortex95
    Darn it! You'd think w/ the BDF getting much farther SW than fcst, and a general rule about 50 mi N of the front when EML-type NW flow, we'd have a nice nocturnal MCS right over the DC area now, but it's still way N still in PA/NJ at this hour, which has got hit repeatedly in the last few days. Also, the squall line that came through early aftn ydy, you'd think that would have meant convection firing farther S as that what usually occurs in NW flow Two days ago the axis was just to our NE, and moves S for ydy aftn, but apparent has moved back N? Odd. Maybe today finally w/ the svr risk axis fcst right through us, but it was ydy also.
  12. vortex95
    No "Holy Sh*t!" from @weatherwiz?
  13. vortex95
    One chaser I know way back always put in his signature file: I FEAST ON THE SMORGASBORD OF ATMOSPHERIC VIOLENCE!" @weatherwiz should come up w/ a similar tagline!
  14. vortex95
    Good points, just don't less recency bias influence you! I go back to the big snowstorms this past winter, and you still act like, "never any good winters again!!" 4 lousy snow years/storms until Jan 2026, and you act like it was 40 years! And I hear things like, "PVD gets 37" and I only get 24" -- "WORST STAWM EV-A!
  15. vortex95 started following 2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
  16. vortex95
    Some historical cases where RI cycle/markedly improved upper-level outflow at and after landfall. Andrew Aug 1992 S FL Andrew was undergoing RI at at landfall, and the eye was actually 1 C warmer 1 hr after landfall. I recall the last recon pressure was 932 mb, and they estimated 926 mb for landfall, but readings on land n the eye found 922 mb in post-storm analysis. Charley Aug 2004 SW FL Charley was undergoing RI those last 12 hours up until landfall as upper-level outflow was improving due to favorable trough interaction upon recurvature. A very compact hurricane that maintained its inner core w/ usually high winds well inland all the way to MCO (G108mph there). Fay Aug 2008 SW FL Fay was a disorganized TS at landfall, but in the next 6 hours, satellite presentation improved big time, and eye formed on sat/radar, and its symmetry was outstanding (on the VIS image link below, it even developed a subsidence ring around its CDO, which is a telltale sign of strong TC on sat). It was the only time I have seen NHC increase the winds for a TC significantly inland (60 to 65 mph - winds over Lake Okeechobee). https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/50/Fay_19_aug_2008_1615Z_Cropped.jpg/960px-Fay_19_aug_2008_1615Z_Cropped.jpg?utm_source=en.wikipedia.org&utm_campaign=imageinfo&utm_content=thumbnail http://ultimatechase.com/chase_accounts/Images/Tropical_Storm_Fay/RAD_KMLB_N0R_ANI.gif Harvey Aug 2017 TX Harvey was undergoing RI those last 12 hr to landfall, and the eye remains intact very well some distance inland. Look at this EIR loop of Harvey, Very strong, practically ideal, upper-level outflow develops not long before and after landfall as evidenced by the large anticyclone cirrus plume. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qjhW6lxkws These are just some examples. There are many others.
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