vortex95

The sensible wx impacts from a strong tropical wave can be just like minimal tropical storm. That's the challenge faced by NHC and other wx services at times b/c the public mostly cares about/sees the impacts, not scientific definitions. But we can't just arbitrarily call something this or that b/c it has wx that appears mimic something else! A typical baroclinic cold core low pressure over the open ocean, many easily have winds of a Cat 1-2 hurricane, and pressures below 920 mb in extreme cases, and overall power as much as a Cat 5, just the wind energy is spread out over a much larger area

The convection is still strongly pulsing, and NHC likes to wait to see more persistent and coherent convection or decent circular banding before declaring a TC, which is a good mode IMHO. Quickly waxing/waning convection is a sign of dry air or shear, and pulsing the convection results in cool outflow boundaries that interfere w/ the organization of the LLCC. It is also a very small system, and small systems are more susceptible to environmental factors. In this case, lots of dry air just to the N that can get entrained easily. Looking at the 00z SHIPS output for 97L here, you can see the 700-500 RH is quite low. (below 50%). https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2026/al972026/stext/26083100AL9726_ships.txt

Looks like a multi-day event coming for the region. SPC even mentions svr risk on DY6 psbl! Hot upper ridge w/ axis to our W in WNW to NW flow and we are on the edge of capping and stronger flow aloft. Can do quite well in such set ups due to an EML! Highest risk and axis just N now is actually good b/c many times initial convection pushes the boundary farther S than any model shows, so that may place it right over the region instead. We saw this a few weeks back except everything was pushed well S into the Carolinas and we missed out on a multi-day svr event in the DMV.

@weatherwiz and @CoastalWx are "mad" it is all SW! SPC even said DY6 could have svr in the same area!

Yes, the convective mass is impressive w/ very cold cloud tops. but it is amorphous and rapidly pulsing. This indicate lots of shear and/or dry air, which promotes regular severe convection, but it detrimental to TC formation/development. We saw this w/ Bertha when it was on the LA coast and intense mass of convection well S due to strong shear. Look at the loop attached for Ex-Dolly this morning. The convection is "ripping" linearly E to W on a trough line. No circular motion or banding at all. That is not a sign of overall intensification as a TC. Sure, there are gale force winds easily in that severe convection, but that is mesoscale and transitory, not pressure gradient driven on a larger-scale, which what you look for a TC. Basically, it does not fit the requirement of a TC, which is a coherent, closed low-level wind center w/ persistent convection. Yes, you can still have shear and dry air present and have a TC, but this is not the case here b/c synoptic conditions are so unfavroable. It as a strong tropical wave, it can thrive when it comes to intense convection, but lack organization to fit the definition of a TC. Generally you do not want to see rapid blow-ups of convection for TC development/intensification b/c it often pulses down quickly and leaves cooler, low-level outflow soundbites from collapsing convective towers (including downbursts), that radiate away in a divergent pattern, which prevents or weakens any low-level circulation. You see this is often in sheared systems in the form of fine-line line outflow boundaries moving away from the center on VIS. Circular banded convection around a center that has not as cold cloud tops is much better to see on satellite for a TC than what we see for ex-Dolly now.

It makes you wonder prior to the satellite era and modern practices, season that were record quiet, like 1914 (one storm), It is highly likely there were some others just like we have seen this season so far. Short-lived, weak TSs that we simply did not have capability of detecting them well or at all way back. But it does not really impact the climo, at least when you go by ACE. 10 weak, short-lived TSs don't even come close to a single, long-tracked, intense Cabo Verde hurricane for total ACE!

Having an exceptional pattern the other way (i.e. very inactive) is of high value b/c it allows us to see the absolute extremes at the other end and what goes on literally that causes it. Sure, we know very strong El Nino does this to the Atlantic, but not every very strong El Nino is the same and we only have 4 other El Ninos since 1950 on this scale, so odds that when this El Nino is done, we will have witness patterns we have not seen before in the satellite age. Knowing what suppresses TCs I would argue is just as important as to what favors them. And 2024 and 2025 w/o El Nino, we had some previously unseen patterns that ripped the heart out of the peak climo part of the season and resulted in busted over-forecasts. Either it was unusually strong and persistent SALs/TUTTs or the ITCZ displaced unusually far N into the Sahara, and brought to light was the "Atlantic Nina" and its possible role!

For @weatherwiz it always come back to the EML in the end! Well, the West Stockbridge MA F4 Aug 28, 1973 tracked NNW to SSE, so odds are *big* EML then.

Yes, the state of the MDR is exceptional currently. Dry air and shear regime supreme. Look at the SAL image of the remains of Dplly attached. That dry air wrap that far S (goes to 5 deg N) this time of year? Ugh.

If you were talking in jest from the start, that was not apparent to me. It is very hard at times on social media to detect tone, inflection, and mood (compare to in-person) esp. when it comes to topical or sensitive issues. It can be a minefield and leads to unnecessary conflict. And we all have been there and are susceptible. So I apologize for the improper response. It was not done maliciously or in spite, just I was trying to clarify my position and what was trying to say w/o letting the conversation devolve, which is challenge in itself many times!

That is incorrect. I said I was not being political. Another made it political (or so I thought, see a post below that clarifies) by bring up specific motives/actions by the current administration for this one change. That's not the same thing. And again, I was taking in general about how geopolitical location name changes occur often. That's not taking "sides," politically or otherwise. It is stating objective facts as to how things actually work in the world.

Ahh, a name issue. Actually, it is "Canada geese!" I got corrected on that in the 00s.

NW flow late summer? West Stockbridge MA Aug 1973 redux? Or how about this? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_1821_New_England_tornado_outbreak

@CoastalWxknows how to lighten the mood, despite his "EEYORE" tendencies! LOL. I predict "Stein" will work its way into our vernacular eventually. Like "that's so FETCH" from "Mean Girls!"

That's a good question, I guess it is subjective and a matter of opinion as to scale here. Airport name changes were just one example I gave and are more common. I noted more significant changes like major cities and country name changes as well. Again, I focused on the broader picture how geopolitical name changes occur more often than many may think, and it not a specific U.S. "problem," if one takes it that way. The "shock and awe" from all this looking at social media in general I find excessive. That's why I provided historical context in the first place. Too many act like everything in the here and now done is wrong or unprecedented, when it is often not. And you think name changes prior to locations did not have some ppl upset or pushing back? Again, historical context. W/o that, you are sailing a ship w/o a rudder, and this affects how you think/feel/react. As for the reasons location names change? They are numerous -- social, political, economic, technological --you name it, it has happened for that reason. That is a different topic and should be discussed elsewhere. In this wx forum, stick to the geopolitical name change implications as it pertains to our field and the sciences. Some have already mentioned a concern -- LES for Lake Ontario, which was partially in jest I think, but nevertheless of value and food for thought!