vortex95

Looks like all MD AWOS METARs have returned, except for KMTN. This site has taken manual METARs in the absence of the AWOS METARs.

https://www.icyclone.com/s/iCyclone_Chase_Report_MELISSA2025.pdf Main points: My location on the SW coast of Jamaica was well inside the RMW (radius of maximum winds) and got the eyewall’s inner right-front quadrant. The SE edge of the eye apparently grazed my location, temporarily bringing reduced wind speeds, improved visibility, and a marked shift in wind direction. My minimum pressure was 926.0 mb. While this might seem high, the report discusses how it actually makes sense, given recon data and the fact that I was probably a few miles from the absolute center. MELISSA's winds were absolutely ferocious—the most intense I've witnessed in 84 hurricanes. And the resultant wind damage was spectacular. This was a truly rare specimen. This is a preliminary version of this report which I rushed to completion because of time-sensitive requests for the data. In the next couple of weeks, I'll be releasing an expanded version with plentiful damage pics. Josh Morgerman iCyclone

CoastalWx will get upset at me for posting the screenshot! LOL. But really, using just the last 5 years, and averages only since 2008? That is much too short of a time frame to determine any real trend either way. As I think I have mentioned before, New England suffered through a crappy snow period 1978-79 to 1991-1992. Yes there was some biggies, but largely confined to 1981-1984. It really was bad 1984-1985 to 1991-92. In Woburn MA, my biggest single snowfall during that latter period was only 11"! That seemed like a lot back then, but now, MEH unless at least 18" after epic 1992-93 to 2015-2016! CoastalWx has vivid "traumatic" memories as a li'l kid at the time in the mid-late 80s -- "WHERE'S MY 4-8" IN THE BACKLASH!!!"

K98D - Onida SD KAGZ - Wagner SD KO61 - Cameron Park CA KVES - Versailles OH TJRV - Ceiba PR

Model backed off.

Models obviously backed off since 18z yesterday. Low once near EPM is "only" 987 mb, compared to 979 mb earlier.

What I am saying is that these RI events can be sneaky and surprise us. I am not talking a Dec 9, 2005 repeat. But wind is wind, so is a sting jet. And don't you recall? Did anyone have a clue even that morning on Dec 9, 2005 what was going to happen? I recall it was a just going to be a run-of-the-mill 4-8" event N of the Pike! Only the Dec 23, 1997 ++SN (the BOS Herald "THEY BLEW IT!" event, rivals the Dec 2005 surprise! CoastalWx's favorite though is the early March 2013 event. Sfc low 600 mi out, and Blue Hill gets 30"! Biggest bust ev-A! And we know we are in an ideal position from a longwave pattern POV to take full advantage of systems moving through. The building blocks are there, so that's why I am cautiously optimistic here it could be a good weenie event! G70? The 12z HRRR showed that easily right offshore in ern MA. G70 is nothing compared to the G100 on the S Coast for the Dec 2005 storm. You do realize that about the only time low elevations of New England get G100 is w/ hurricanes. It's quite rare in winter storms.

The LSR does not mention Bourne damage? Also, just b/c it is called a gustnado, does not make it not a tornado. The official definition is if a gustnado is attached to the cloud base, it is a tornado. And gustnadoes do not typically stay coherent for very long, esp. if it is not flat terrain, yet you have an interminent damage in a 50 mi swath from RI to the CC Canal. So it was all gustnadoes then? Given the high shear/low CAPE environment, brief tornadic spin-ups are not a stretch at all, and this event warrants a closer, in situ look IMHO.

We are talking basically mesoscale stuff here. Sting jets are tricky. Location and timing are everything! Recall how localized the real crazy winds were on Dec 9, 2005? Had to be on the S Coast and Cape. PVD and GHG were not nearly as bad!

CoastalWx would be surprised what the event here yesterday turned into over Atlantic Canada. Sting jet and all! This next storm does something similar, expect New England catches the RI phase, and the low ends up 968 mb almost in the same exact position S of Newfoundland Thu aftn. This shows how good a pattern it is -- it reloads on the fly!

I'm not advocating the bad impacts, just pointing out the meteorology of the event and its potential. Pattern recognition plays a big role in this case.

The late Wed/early Thu event looks very impressive. Low pressure 998 mb over Lake Huron noon EST Wed, and rapidly deepens to 979 mb just E of EPM by 6am EST Thu. Interesting and unexpected things can happen in such a case. W/ most low pressures that RI, there is often a "sweet spot" location that takes full advantage of this RI, meaning you can get absolutely crushed above expectations. The way the pattern is currently, New England is in this sweet spot. So wild precip and wind is possible. Perhaps the most impressive example of this was the Bliz of '78. The mean trough position has been very good for the E Coast events for over a month now. Best lead into winter for a pattern I have seen in some time. One thing about these kind of situations, the "surprise factor" is higher than typical. Given the mean trough position is excellent for the NEUS (we saw what happened last night -- overperfomed), why not? When its "good," it can be *really* "good." meaning sometimes you can get in to patterns that are relentless, everything goes right, and so nuts that even CoastalWx will forget his pain from the lack of snow he dealt w/ in the 80s (no 4-8" backlash, instead sunny when he got up in the morning), and the pitiful winters in the 2020s so far! Jan-Feb 2015 was such one period. Entire winters like 1992-93 and 1995-96 were like this. CoastalWx also needs to keep in mind Dec 9, 2005 in mind when it comes to wind w/ these type of storms. Sting jet! He'll be looking for the PVU anomaly and tropospheric fold I bet. LOL.

The 18z HRRR looks almost identical synoptically. The low is just as deep and comma head stout.

It seems most NC AWOS METARs have returned. Only KJNX, KSCR, KMCZ, and KIXA are still missing. No MD AWOS METARs have resumed. Here is the complete list that are missing currently. KJNX.TXT 31-Oct-2025 21:01 83 KDMW.TXT 31-Oct-2025 14:41 83 KCGS.TXT 31-Oct-2025 14:41 96 KCGE.TXT 31-Oct-2025 14:41 83 KCBE.TXT 31-Oct-2025 14:41 85 K2W6.TXT 31-Oct-2025 14:41 95 K2G4.TXT 31-Oct-2025 14:41 93 K0W3.TXT 31-Oct-2025 14:41 108 KW29.TXT 31-Oct-2025 14:41 91 KSCR.TXT 31-Oct-2025 14:41 90 KMCZ.TXT 31-Oct-2025 14:41 85 KIXA.TXT 31-Oct-2025 14:41 75 KFME.TXT 31-Oct-2025 14:41 75 K7W6.TXT 31-Oct-2025 07:50 85 The following MD sites are sending manually-taken METARs and are going to WMSCR: KESN KFDK KMTN

A notice has gone out today that states the FAA contract to a 3rd party vendor for 58 AWOS sites in MD/NC is ending today. This means no more METARs over the various NCEP and FAA data lines. This is non-trivial IMHO, esp. b/c it basically takes out much of the AWOS network in MD/NC. The AWOS are not being decommissioned, just NADIN service, which routes the METAR to WMSCR and then NCEP and the FAA lines for all to see, is going away. All these sites have been available for ~20 years. Not good for the HRRR and RRFS, among other things. List is below: K0W3 Churchville MD K1A5 Franklin NC K24A Sylva NC K2G4 Oakland MD K2W6 Leonardtown MD K7W6 Engelhard NC KACZ Wallace NC KAFP Wadesboro NC KASJ Ahoskie NC KCBE Cumberland MD KCGE Cambridge MD KCGS College Park MD KCPC Whiteville NC KCTZ Clinton NC KDMW Westminster MD KDPL Kenansville NC KEDE Edenton NC KEHO Shelby NC KESN Easton MD KETC Tarboro NC KEXX Lexington NC KEYF Elizabethtown NC KFDK Frederick MD KFFA Kill Devil Hills NC KFME Fort Meade MD KFQD Rutherfordton NC KGEV Jefferson NC KGWW Goldsboro NC KHBI Asheboro NC KHNZ Oxford NC KHRJ Erwin NC KIPJ Lincolnton NC KISO Kinston NC KIXA Roanoke Rapids NC KJNX Smithfield NC KJQF Concord NC KLHZ Louisburg NC KMCZ Williamston NC KMQI Manteo NC KMRN Morganton NC KMTN Baltimore MD KMWK Mount Airy NC KOCW Washington NC KONX Currituck NC KPGV Greenville NC KRCZ Rockingham NC KRHP Andrews NC KRUQ Salisbury NC KSCR Siler City NC KSIF Reidsville NC KSUT Southport NC KSVH Statesville NC KTDF Roxboro NC KTTA Sanford NC KUKF North Wilkesboro NC KVUJ Albemarle NC KW29 Stevensville MD KW40 Mount Olive MD