vortex95

They are reachin' stating it never really went away. And parsing it down to just cntrl NH,as if adjacent watersheds that flow into the area mean nothing and ignoring the overall no drought state of much NNE at the time.

They had "SKEWL" that day? After Andrew and esp. the Bliz of 93, the wx hype train has arrived for good, and you'd think a HU as intense as Floyd coming up the coast (yes, I know it weakened a lot, but that's not how the media acts!), across the board cancellations! Any tropical watches or warmings, the do not hesitate these days! I thought by 1999 that would have been the case as well. When TS David impacted New England in early Sep 1979, schools were not closed that day. Even though it was way W tracking up through cntrl NY, it was the best TC duration wind I have ever seen in New England outside a HU landfall, and surprising windy all the way to ern MA w/ gusts to 70-75 mph. I recall how windy it was at recess, and how much stronger the winds were second recess! And the trees whipping right next to the recess area. Branches could have easily fallen on us! And its turns out my observations from that event had something behind it. Check this paper out. Not you typical evolution for a TC at this latitude! @weatherwiz be like, "WE NEED THIS AGAIN!!!" Postlandfall Tropical Cyclone Reintensification in a Weakly Baroclinic Environment: A Case Study of Hurricane David (September 1979) https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/123/11/1520-0493_1995_123_3268_ptcria_2_0_co_2.xml

Time to nit... 1) "North East"?? 2) 55N/Gulf of AK is not "Arctic" 3) "new Polar stream high" - random improper capitalization It's bad enough you have all these "social-meteorologists" who lack basic wx knowledge, but add on sloppiness in their actual wording in posts?

A common fallacy I see on many social media posts is that they show the 500 mb heights and its anomalies as always "hot." 500 heights only serve as a *proxy*, and we do not live at 500 mb. What is the sfc pressure and 1000-500 thickness? What is the nature of the air mass and 925 temps? Also, the location of interest, where is it relative to the ridge center?

@CoastalWxcalls the recent wx in the NEUS "boring?" He has no context of the word apparently. Try the current Atlantic hurricane season out for size. And you know this record inactivity is squashing ratings for places like TWC and stations in the South. Relying on wx for consistent ratings is foolhardy. I recall the 96-97 winter, marketing and execs at many stations along the E Coast seemed "shocked" ratings were not like the previous winter. Clueless.

Now we are seeing 14-day forecasts? Yes, I know AccuWx has had even further for some time, but it just shows you how ppl keep trying to one-up each other when the fcst science simply does not support it or has advanced. Like one could tell w/ *any* real skill the temp would be exactly 70 on day 14. Also, "pattern predictions?" It's a freakin' wx forecast! Call it as such! Branding marketing, nothing more. Ooo, wait, alliteration, that's KEWL! It reminds me how on some radio stations in BOS a number of years ago, the "news" suddenly became, "what's trending!" Doublespeak!

Updated for completed reanalysis 1971-75. https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data_sub/re_anal.html 14 new tropical/subtropical storms (11 upgraded from tropical depressions) 21 tropical depressions were removed 1 hurricane downgraded to a tropical storm (Dawn, 1972) 2 tropical storms upgraded to hurricanes (Delia, 1973; Amy, 1975) 2 hurricanes upgraded to major hurricanes (Ginger, 1971; Doria, 1975) 86 total systems now in HURDAT2 for 1971-1975, comprising over 3000 revisions to genesis, track, intensity, central pressure, landfall, status, and dissipation. Note: The 21 TDs removed. In the early years of NHC, the would literally call any mass of convection associated w/ a tropical wave a TD! This practice ended by the later 1970s. Some ppl (not here) have said, "revisionist history!." No. We take our technology and immense observation networks for granted now, but it wasn't always this way. Also, our knowledge and understanding have increased tremendously for TCs in just the last 30 years alone, and we can apply this to historical seasons to get a better picture overall,. Also, standard and practices on what we call a TC have changed (expanded) over time. All this equates to a general underestimation of TC strength and numbers in the past, and the further you go back, the more we "missed." And these reanalyses are done by many ppl, and changes go to a committee of TC experts before it gets finalized. The amount of work that goes on here is amazing, given the shear amount of data to go over! Also, it shows that even after the advent of the satellite era, TCs were still missed or not handled the best way. I think they plan to go to 2000 w/ this reanalysis. It has been going on for 25 years now starting w/ 1851 season. Also, check out this: https://x.com/FerragamoWx/status/2100729487038308516 List of changes: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1H5OwX26ay09jGO6mrXRS3qS5G8fVohne5KLpHYnuQUQ/edit?tab=t.0#heading=h.4b2gybhe44qu

Ugh.

The fascinating thing about this season, and the last two for that matter, is that either unexpected factors has squashed the peak climo period (Aug 20-Sep 10) (2024/25) or an well-known factor (very strong El Nino) has resulted in record suppression overall (it is not just a new record for low ACE season-to-date and no HUs, it is beginning to get in the high-end territory or as @Windspeed said "shattered.". This is non-trivial, to say the least. Sure, it does not have the wham-bang of TCs non-stop or wicked intense, but that not really relevant to the actual hard met science of it all. As I have mentioned I think, what suppresses TCs is just as important as what favors them, and everything in between. The last 3 Atlantic seasons have aided in furthering the TC science from their oddities are to how the peak climo part of the season has been "taken out.". I know it may not seem that way in general sense, but you can't let what is popular or not on social media or in the MSM skew the facts or contaminate the science. What has occurred the last 3 seasons is significant/not just some isolated anomaly. One could state or ponder, If going forward the MDR has these kind of issues more often or trends up, this has implications on many fronts, meteorological and otherwise. One thing I like is that we are *still* seeing things we have not seen before, at least in the modern age when we have much better observations overall. We are pushing the boundaries as to what is possible, which is a good thing b/c that expands the knowledge base. For a wx weenie, this is pure gold IMHO, b/c it shows "the more you know, the more you realize you *don't* know" and "the more you learn, the more you realize you have a *lot* to learn." The atmosphere/Earth's system is among the best things out there that exemplifies these statements!

No way. It not like you missed out on the big rain mid-summer completely. Do you have actual pcpn stats to back the up for Weymouth? Otherwise, it is anecdotal and whining b/c of "boredom!" A drought w/ 3 month totals like this? I don't think so. Not a meteorological one. Drought monitor shows abnormally dry SE MA Recall what it was 2 months ago? CMI and Palmer show neutral conditions currently. For your immediate area, the map plot shows very close to avg rainfall for the summer.

After what happened today across CT/RI/SE MA, it shows the shortcomings of such forecasts! The past few months for the S Coast and esp. swrn CT have been like the blitz of Jan-Feb 2015, except rain! And @CoastalWx calls the pattern "boring"?!

The HI area had some sig activity 1993 and 1994. Polar image attached from Aug 15, 1993, showing annular HU Fernanda to the E and HU Keoni to the SW. And in 1994, the CPAC was very active. HU Emilia became the strongest CPAC HU (140 kt) up to this time in mid-July. Then a week later, Gilma attained peak intensity roughly the same as Emilia in the CPAC. Then in Aug, HU John peaked at 150 kt to again break the CPAC record for the strongest storm, and became the longest-lived TC globally until 2023. The three Cat 5s in 1994 all passed well S of HI, so no direct impacts, but to have that kind of activity is remarkable. SSTs were running about 2.5 C above avg in the region as mdt El Nino was in taking shape. Another item that stood out during this time was a very large area of dry air on WV in the central southern Pacific in the tropics/subtropics, so subsidence here implies rising motion synopticly on the other side of the equator in at similar latitudes.

And to round things out about trends in TCs,.one item that seems to have slipped under the radar since so much focus on the very active Atlantic in recent years, for the NW Pacific, 2020-2025 was below average ACE each year, as low as 51% for ACE in 2020. In fact, the total ACE for this 6-year period was only 66% of average, which is the lowest 6-year ACE on record for this basin going back to 1950. https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?arch&loc=northwestpacific Given our detection and documentation of TCs is better than ever these days, this makes this record more impressive. Since the NW Pacific accounts for about 38% of annual global ACE (more than twice any other basin), this quite significant overall when talking about trends. The notion that when the Atlantic is active, the NPAC is not, seems to be still holding true overall. And we see this year w/ the Atlantic suppressed, and the NPAC is very active.

Attached is a paper about change of power dissipate index (PDI) for the South Indian Ocean since the 1990s. It also shows a map of trends in all tropical basins. A significant decrease in power dissipation index has been detected in the South Indian Ocean basin since 1994, which is almost entirely due to a decrease in both tropical cyclone frequency and duration in this basin. The decrease in tropical cyclone frequency is influenced by increased atmospheric stability. The decrease in tropical cyclone duration can be attributed to the changes in tropical cyclone locations. So the decrease is due to a decline in frequency and duration, noting about absolute peak intensity. And if you look at the all basins combined the PDI trend is down. Why 1994? Well, two reasons I think this was picked. One, full geostationary converge did not exist for the Indian Ocean until 1989, and many TCs prior to that we way underdone for intensity. Yes, we have polar imagery, but the delay to transmit those images to TC centers was delayed by several hours in those days, and could not be used operationally. Second, 1994 was the last year in a quiet period for the Atlantic that started in 1970. It also marked the end of an overall active period for the NPAC. The AMO flip occurred around this time, so it appears that there could be TC basin impact globally from the AMO cycle. The Southern Indian Ocean contributes the second most annual ACE of the TC basins. tcpaper.pdf