vortex95

Looks active Mon-Wed here. HRRR/RRFS suggesting multiple waves of tstms and derecho potential. Seems like there will be one in the OH Valley Tue, and the 12z RRFS is hitting that very hard. Attached is the RRFS valid 00z Wed. Wow. And you have storms firing on the front WNW to ESE right into the DMV area, like a large warm advection wing seen on many derechoes. HRRR through 48 hr seems to have the same idea. Pattern is favorable for derechoes/long-lived bow echoes. The issue typically is though, can an OH Valley derecho make it over the Appalachians intact? It's hard to do. The June 2012 did, but that was the exception. SPC also has the region outlooked for svr DY4 (Wed).

The NWPAC is sure going strong so far this season (S-T-D 204% of avg ACE), but so far the E/CPAC is just about avg S-T-D. Typically, this basin is near record active in a very strong El Nino year. 1982 30 depressions and 23 of those NS. HI had one its few hurricane direct hits from Iwa this season. 1997 24 depressions and 19 of those became NS (Linda this season was the most intense EPAC TC until Patricia in 2015). 2015 31 depressions (a record), 26 of them NS, (tied its record), 16 hurricanes, and set a new record w/ 11 major hurricanes. However, 1991 was close to avg, so it shows not every very strong El Nino results in the same sensible wx in a region every time. And 1991 for the Atlantic only had 35 ACE, which is the 6th lowest ACE for this basin since the satellite era began. A general rule of thumb I use is that when he Atlantic is active, the EPAC is typically inactive, and vice-versa, but it does not work every time! Also, it is hard for every TC basin in the world to be suppressed in active in a given year. At least one is above avg when all other can be below. However, 1977 was a year when it was suppressed globally in all TC basins.

"Atmosphere accomplishment?" Great term! Alliteration to boot! Last year, all the hurricanes except Melissa got strong and peaked in intensity outside the deep tropics (N of ~20N). Even Melissa struggled w/ shear for 4 days before getting its act together. And in 2024, the same thing occurred basically (Beryl the only classic MDR system). The MDR has had some issues in recent years, even when the overall pattern has been quite favorable for an active season. And besides Beryl, no long-tracked, classic Cabo Verde hurricanes in 2024 or 2025. When I say "classic Cabo Verde", I am talking something like Isabel from 2003 or Ivan from 2004.

As opposed to what, *unnatural* rainfall? LOL. What narrow-minded curmudgeon weenie! We could get another 7/10/1989, and you'd still be like MEH!

"If it’s not a mile or less away I’m not interested." The most @CoastalWx "EEYORE" line EV-A! He is forgetting about +CGs. I had one in Silver Spring the other week, and it was 6 mi away. I did not see the bolt itself, but got an "enveloping" very bright flash all around me, and it was during the day. 30 sec later, this incredible THUD occurred!

How did that work out Scott? Crazy LTG shows in CT/MA last evening!

Scott was impressed w/ the outflow winds at his high school and flanking line TCU for the Brockton downburst in May 1996. He missed it, and still was like, "WOW!" Now? MEH MEH MEH!

Also, when kids, first impressions are massive and imprint strongly. And everything is larger than life as a kid. I have so many memories on this level and now I am somewhat jaded (not like @CoastalWx though!) and it takes a *lot* to impress me! However, that doesn't mean I do not still enjoy it all. Also, these days, being so in touch w all that goes on around us for wx, we see clearly more how many times we "miss" things, but when you confine it to one local area (like WEYMOUTH!) of course you are going to feel ripped off way more often b/c you are far more aware of what happened elsewhere and hence whine "WHY CAN"T WE GET THAT!?" Some of my most vivid tstm memories are from Hampton Beach. Yes, given the VIS is much better on a beach, that is factor, but way too many times I recall nasty stuff there, and at all hours of the day. Turns out there is something to that, as storm tend to intensify as they approach the NH coast, or at least don't crap out like so many times as they approach 495/128!

and DIAMOND DUST at 30,000 ft!

Only @CoastalWx would use "decent" and "meh" in the same sentence! It's like when he finally had his 6" in a single storm b4 the 20"+ events this past winter, and he used "violently" and "beautiful" in the same sentence!

I wonder if the GFS still has its TC spin-up bias in the long range? It looks more optimistic that the ECMWF Very dry at low-levels currently in the MDR, and will the dust outbreaks decrease? TCs can form in such hostile MDR conditions, but they are typical quite small and struggle. We saw this in the previous two years a lot.

Today's set up is almost identical to ydy. And the SPC outlook looks very similar as well. So multicellular clusters once again. We do have the storms nrn areas now, but the clouds should clear out nicely behind it all for plenty of aftn heating. And VIS currently clearly shows boundaries laid down S of the tstm area.

Yesterday was a case of how hugging models can burn you for a fcst big time. This is where human fcst skill and intuition comes in. I stated the setup in a previous post and noted there were no reasons why there would not be sct-bkn coverage fro tstms Friday, and that was the case! Not tooting my own horn, just saying that models are far from perfect, and only *simulate* the atmosphere. They are not direct copies! And it shows that we are far from having fcsts automated. esp, for mesoscale phenomena.. Also, sometimes ppl will say, "well, this is the latest run (of the HRRR (for instance), so it has the latest data, so it *must* be more right than previous runs!" Obviously, that is flawed reasoning. Models can be wrong for all sorts of reasons in any given run, and sometimes egregiously so. And it is not always apparent why they do that. That's ok b/c they have limitations by default and again, the human fcst part comes in here and is still of very high value! Also, SPC had a SLGHT risk of svr tstms for the region. Why would one just ignore that? I would defer to SPC outlooks the vast majority of the time, as that's all they do, fcst convection! It was not highly conditional case (BOOM or BUST) w/ strong capping in place. Convective temps would be reached easily so decent tstm coverage was high prob. So putting in zero POPs for anywhere n the DMV yesterday has me scratching my head.

Those storms in nrn MD now, the HRRR even through 13z did not depict them well and dissipated any cells quickly. What they may do is lie down an outflow boundary to the S for focus of potentially stronger storms later.