vortex95

Ahh, the warm front! Your lawn will thank you! LOL.

That a good point. Actually I just looked, and ydy MLS avg high is 91. 102 is wicked hot for us in New England, but when the avg high temp in July is 6-9 F cooler 91 that in places like BOS/PVD/BDL, it is not so hot to residents in Miles City. The notion that 90 is some kind of benchmark for hot wx is misguided, but try telling that to the MSM. Once again, the E Coast bias, more specifically DCA-BOS, applies here, as if that is typical climate! You often hear X percentage of the CONUS or states AOA 90 on any summer day, acting like that is universally unusual. No it isn't when about 40% of the country has an avg high 90 or higher! Geez, 90 in PHX or LAS in the summer is a *cool* day for them! I was told one time the way to calculate hot, or unusually warm, is take the avg high for the location for a given day, and go 2 standard deviations above that. But I am not sure if you can apply that in all seasons, since big temp swings and deviations are much more common in the winter than summer and the closer to the polar regions you get, the bigger the swings overall.

CoastalWx gonna pull out his warm front QPF fcst rule of thumb?

Pfftt! "Not unlike the blizzard in Feb" as if you can synoptically compare the two? What a bunch of crap! "Ooo, the track is similar!" -- so? That is meaningless by itself. It reminds me of the "Sandy obsession" that occurred for a few years after Sandy occurred. Some national media would put up every hurricane threatening the E Coast "track similar to Sandy." Stupid,. Using a recent high-end event for more hype. Think about so many in NYC and NJ after Sandy and the trauma that occurred from the record storm surge. That's non-trivial stress brought up from ppl just hearing that passively!

Some locations in SE MA/RI/CT are going to end up w. their wettest July on record. And NNE finally gets some as well!

Some overnight action in NW flow. Supercell split here w/ the right most one an anticyclonic supercell (nice flared and sheared appearance) A left split, even though it does not look like that for movement, but you have to remember the frame of reference. In NW flow you have to rotate your frame reference 90 deg from typical SW flow. As is commonl, the anticyclonic storm moves faster than its cyclonic counterpart. Hail cores aloft (loop is from DOX).

Also, a fairly new type of CAPE, ECAPE! It accounts for dry air entraiment. "Substantial mixing occurs between the upward-moving air currents in thunderstorms (updrafts) and the surrounding comparatively dry environmental air, through a process called entrainment. Entrainment controls thunderstorm intensity via its diluting effect on the buoyancy of air within updrafts." CAPE values we see plotted are almost never full realized due to dry air entrainment. How much entrainment occurs varies greatly. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/147/3/mwr-d-18-0137.1.xml AMS24poster.pdf

Yet another solid 500 trough for July, This time actuality cuts-off and is slow to move out, so looks like Mon-Wed tstms each day in some form, and maybe Thu if the ECMWF is right. Tue appears the best for svr wx currently. GFS and ECMWF don't hesitate to replace this 500 low w/ another one just beyond week, so active times ahead it seems.

Yes, I thought of the terms used for CAPE here, but that's what is in literature. Maybe "wide" and "narrow" CAPE is better!

Yes, I agree. 30-yr does have practical uses, but for long-term climate, and I am talking on geological scales, it is useless. Things exist in a rather large range from a local to global scale when you consider how long the Earth has been around, and that's ok. Geez, the range of things from a climatic POV over millions of years? Also, I have seen things done w/ 30-year normals, both on a deliberate and accidental level. Using some random 30-year period to scale wx and records in the present. Which 30-year normal baseline is best to quantify changes or trends to the present? You see one can pick and chose to get desired results here either way. And why 30 years? Is this something significant climate-wise about 30 years? Given that is a tiny speck geologically, I would say not. It sounds more like a human convenient period (generational?) than anything else! We have a tendency to scale and build things around what humans consider a "long-time," but that does not work on geological scales. And then you run into period of record varying greatly for many locations across the globe, so there is big challenge here. We have to have something for a baseline, but having something does not mean it works well for all things.

And leave out conditions have improved in the last week in SNE. And in the large pix, I find it hard to believe that srn RI and SE MA are still svr drought conditions given the 8-11" of rain in the past 3 weeks (the way the drought conditions are calculated I have long have issues w/ despite how it isn't just about rainfall). Although the cut off day of 7/21 at 8am missed the big rains the following 24 hr, the post could have said how it has improved just in the last 48 hr which the map did not account for. Omission of facts to promote a particular narrative or prevent deflating hype! And really, how much of daily routine life has been impacted for the general public b/c we have had drought conditions for awhile? Yes, there are some impacts but nothing that we can't handle/absorb and have done so for a very long time. The way the MSM pushes drought often you'd think it is debilitating issue and our water supply is running out!

As if what happened last August has *any* relevance or influence on what this August will be like? Useless filler statement in the context of forecasting. This would be like saying, "recall last winter CoastalWx has two 20"+ snowstorms in Weymouth..." for this upcoming winter fcst. And not to leave out Wxwiz, for July 10 any year that has a tor risk on this day, "recall on July 10, 1989 we had 17 tors in the NEUS for its biggest outbreak on record!"

Enter August 2, 1975!

Odd statements like this that you would say, "no one ever says that!" or "says it that way!" are a red flag for AI-generated content. I've seen it many times in wx posts already on various social media platforms. One was talking about tornadoes and it said, "F5-class." First, not using the EF-scale is a red flag, and second, no one ever says "F5-class" for a pre-2007 tornado rating. We say, "F5-rated" or "rated F5"! In narration, it can sound great and getting all its facts correct, but you get thrown off whenever you hear a mispronounced word from AI not knowing usage context. Like "lead" or "wound." It stands out so much and it takes you out of the listening/learning part, and you immediately go, "AI SLOP!"

The door swings both ways, and neither far end is good! If one is going to cover wx for a big audience, state things objectively and try not to let personal bias sway you. Sadly, this position is harder and harder to find these days. And the most devious things about it is that some know better, are on the level, yet are well-aware that instigating conflict and divide w/ endless speculation, conjecture, and hedging is an easy way to get attention and monetize, so they disingenuously take this route. Some are more subtle than others. Look at the rhetoric and most importantly, how things are over time.