vortex95

Also, the RRFS apparently can "see" intense mesocyclones! Look at the 972 mb "low" in nrn IN 01z Thu!

For Thu... I am impressed w/ the very strong WAA early on Thu in the NEUS. Atypical for summer. That looks to produce some sig tstms in itself. Thu afternoon is tricky b/c CAPE is lacking, but the shear is through the roof, as high as 85 kt 0-6 km and 45 kt 0-1 km. I can't think of any event in the last several decades w/ warm sector shear so high here this time of year when a strong sfc low passes just to our N. The 00z RRFS show a number of discrete storms Thu aftn w/ CAPE as high as 1150 in spots. I know the RRFS can get carried away and I don't have a good feel for it yet, but overall given the existing anomalies for the wind fields, I am quite concerned. I don't like that the sfc low is lifting/weakening as it moves across srn Quebec, but that may not matter in the end? Given such setups as so rare here, using the very limited past analogs we have for sig tor events in the NEUS, we don't really know the full spectrum or what can happen here b/c of that rarity in itself! I can honestly say I do not have a good forecast "feel" for this upcoming event in the NEUS b/c of the low CAPE, otherwise, it would be easy. It looks really nasty for the Midwest Wed -- off the charts for parameters. So how will that translate E? Not just in the NEUS, but in the Mid-Atlantic. Not every high-end svr event in the Great Lakes/OH Valley/Midwest this time of year ends up being big the next day to the E. I say "this time of year" b/c in the cool season, it is rare by default. In the NEUS, everyone often thinks of the June 8-9, 1953 outbreak sequence, but it doesn't always work like that. SPC DY3 outlook seems to focus on straight-line winds. That does seems more likely given the very fast storm motions and wind fields.

"Just give me 90, dews, and the beach." Incorrect, it should say, "just give me S+, S+, and S+!"

Crofton MD MB 6/11 (I think). Video never can capture the roar of the wind well, at least not the same as actually being there! https://www.facebook.com/reel/1658094618796584

*Any* wx anomaly or deviation now is news and hyped. Inane. As if everything should be exactly normal/avg all the time? Guess what, normal/avg doesn't exist as many think it does! And hyping how the planet works normally (that's what it has become now) and acting like something is wrong is pure drivel. You can make a living on-line now just finding anything going on across the globe to the smallest minutia and hype it as if it is significant. Basically taking the fact that "something is always going on" and making a big deal out of it no matter what. Have to have that CONTENT for clicks/likes, engagement bait, drive the algorithms, and monetize! It has become a sideshow within a sideshow and race to the bottom.

But Cape Cod!!!

Glad you pointed this out. ECMWF was unrealistically showing tropical deepening well inland from MS to the Carolinas. 18z backed off and looks more reasonable. And now the GFS has the same idea. Excellent point about how this may play a role in the SVR later in the week. It seems up until now, rich deep moisture was lacking as noted by not so high CAPE even in the Mid-Atlantic, but this tropical low could make a huge difference as to sensible svr wx, esp. NYC to DCA.

Rather meh for NNE today. Not a single svr wx report and one SVR from CAR. Seems like the overnight stuff will end up better. RRFS and HRRR show this well for ern CT/RI/SE MA. Li'l finger of CAPE quite apparent. RRFS LTG density solid (as a rock).

Moving from Brockton to GHG to Dorchester headed farther N, then back S of Weymouth? Does a snow weenie in SNE do that?

Yes. absolutely crazy LTG shows. Probably tied to the EML and having "fat" CAPE at mid-levels, so the charge separation is ideal in the mixed phase layer.

Not according to CoastalWx!

Are their systematic issues w/ sonic anemometers? W/ all the new mesonet sites in MD the last few years, are we seeing wind measurement issues often?