vortex95

Looks pretty good for gully-washer tstms Sunday. GFS/ECMWF show PWATs over 2" (max 2.5") for the entire region. SW to NE training a good bet in some areas w/ the HRRR showing a 5.93" max just SW of DC. RRFS is similar to the HRRR. just not as high w/ the QPF maxes, but the point is the atmosphere is primed to big rains. A full-latitude, positively-titled trough to our W w/ broad SW flow over us should easily support some big QPF. Showers/sct tstms already in wrn VA and it all slowly moves E during the day, continuing into early Mon AM. Svr risk is marginal. Some supercell structures could be supported for short times. 01/18z ECMWF gives SHRA/TSRA every day through Thu. Nothing stands out for sig svr, just persistent, moist SW cyclonic flow, so lots of tstm activity.

Let's flood out wrn CT again! 00z HRRR.

It doesn't! Imagine that!

You have to ask yourself, "why wouldn't the air dry out AM to PM on a sunny day? " "Thankfully" for what? Diurnal temp range the the sun coming up??? Was the AM moisture causing "problems? Fluff post (the X link)!

I still think it is funny that some local TV media will fcst highs something like 77-84, and call it "hot." Gotta push that heat all the time!

@CoastalWx all excited w/ the leaves changing already I bet! Now it is just the "540 thickness line watch" for first time!

It has at least 6 days before landfall. so a lot of time to form a giant eye.

Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) products that give very detailed surface wind profiles for TCs. Click on the storm you want and then "profile plots" for the max winds in each quadrant and RMW text output, among other things. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/socd/mecb/sar/sarwinds_tropical.php

Looks like Dolphin is ready to form a huge eye. Several hours ago, I got about 20 nm for a eye diameter. Based on what I see on EIR now, the new larger eye is going be be close to 60 nm!

Yes, higher OHC means what can form and intensify has better potential. However, one thing I have learned is that there is lot more to it, and it is surprising/counterintuitive at times. This underscores what I say a lot, you can't think of the global system in a 1-2-3 linear manner. Human nature is conditioned though for this, as in correlation = causation in a very basic sense! Look at this BAMS paper concerning EPAC and WPAC TC intensification rates. You'd think the WPAC would be "better" for everything concerning TCs b/c it is the most active region on the globe, but that is not true. noaa_54129_DS1.pdf

When you see a ton of blue dots for svr winds reports in an area that first day and no red dots for tors, always go back and check the SPC reports for that day for several days after the event. Sometimes lots of red dots show up from post-storm surveys. In the SEUS for big winter/spring QLCS events w/ many winds reports. I've seen more than a dozen tors show up eventually as post-storm surveys are done.

94W E of the Philippines is clearly a TD, if not a min TS. LLCC is well-defined and core convection is persistent. JTWC does not even acknowledge it as "low" for a chance of development, probably b/c the models don't do anything w/ it, but so what? It is what is in the here and now, and so what if it exists only for a short time as a TC?

SAL is another big factor, esp. in recent years. 2024, the SAL was dominant in the MDR. The 700 and 500 temp anomalies were impressive, and that why the heart of the season was squashed and why we did not get the fcst "2005 redux" in 2024. I recall seeing 0 C at 500 in part of the MDR in Aug-Sep 2024, and this was w/ no ridging present. It is not often you get 0 C at 500. In the core of a Cat 1 hurr or higher and under the hottest continental ridges. So to have 0 C at 500 just "there" w/ nothing atypical synoptically, you want to take about "extreme?" The SAL was so strong in 2024, it extended to the EPAC and that suppressed things big time initially, resulting in the latest first NS in the EPAC since reliable satellite records (1970). In 2025, what stood out was the African dust outbreaks. They usually peak in June and wane in July, but they went on into Sep, again knocking down MDR formation big time. 2025 was unique b/c all the major hurricanes except Melissa peaked and got intense outside the deep tropics. So what happened in just the last two seasons in the ATLC were non-trivial as to suppression of TC activity, and something that needs to researched more and included in the discussion. It is esp. important b/c of all the TC basins in the world, the ATLC is the most variable.

Far too much focus on SSTs -- column TPW (and by extension instability) and shear is what it is all about. All the anomalously high SST/OHC is meaningless if the atmosphere does not cooperate. Something that seems to elude many -- "but the ocean is SO hot!!!" TCs are more tenuous that the MSM thinks. A lot has to line up for one to form, and even more for one to get intense. SSTs are more than warm enough around the globe in much of the tropics and subtropics year-round to support strong TCs, and how many named storms form each year and how many get intense? And formation is confined to distinct parts of the year in each basin, again showing how what goes on in the atmosphere dictates things. Of all the 3 primary factors, SSTs are least important. You can get hurricanes up to Cat 2 status w/ SSTs below the 26 C threshold, and min hurricanes as low as 20 C as long as the TPW and shear are favorable. But if the wind shear is high and/or the column is dry, you get nothing to even develop in the first place, despite torch SSTs! You don't need to do research or run a model to see this, Empirical observations alone over time clearly show this. That's a sig problem these days, some are so caught up in "what the models say" they forget to look at what actually happens in the real world, currently and in the past. Empirical. real-world observations override what models say every time. Basic common sense and logic!