vortex95

So 850 is not good enough, have to use 700 for 0 C? Weak! We don't live at 10,000 ft and sfc temps Monday will be at or a bit above avg in the NEUS. This is what happens when you post to just to post for engagement and drive the algorithms for one's site (fluff). What's next, 0 C at 18,000 ft (500 mb)? That would be something as it is almost *always* 0 C or below at this level, but prey on the ignorance of the public for clicks/likes! At least 0 C at 850 has some sfc implications, as you can get S/IP at the sfc!

As usual, the GFS overdevelops the Cabo Verde wave coming up. ECMWF looks a lot more reasonable. The real question is can it stay intact through the strong wind shear barrier that exists on the N edge of the MDR. These waves start out ok well E, but once they gain a little latitude farther W, quite hostile conditions.

Yes, big +CGs N side of the Beltway a few hours ago! House shakers!

The video headline is misleading. Tornadoes are not "rare" in NY or DE. They occur every year.

The warm front "connection" again! But this time it should bodily move N and not hang out along the S Coast.

No MCS "robbing" things this thing given the SW flow for Sunday @CoastalWx take note. But he will still find something wrong! Svr risk looks interesting Sun b/c strong SW flow this time of year is not as detrimental from the marine infection due to warmer SSTs. Very strong 250 jet over the region (100 kt +). The flared appearance of the storms on the HRRR S of LI is promising.

I think 8/20 starts the "peak" of the ATLC season, and goes throug 9/10. ACE is only 16% S-T-D.

I know "soaking" is subjective, but generally I think "1-2" widespread" is a good min criteria. Although definitions are fluid here b/c of the use of "STEIN!"

If it was just a bit farther N! That quite impressive for 1013 mb sfc low.

"Soaking rainfall?" Looks like the 7-10 split ern and cntrl sections of the region.

"Bow to me faithfully!"

You may want to check the 18z RRFS MPAS, you know. the one you can't whine about b/c you already said that the operational one only had a FV3 core.

So based on what occurred. I think the 5% tor risk was realized and the 18z IAD RAOB told the story. Once again though, the bay and the Delmarva played a big role I think. There were several storms early on over the Delmarva, and maybe they laid down subtle boundaries and interacted w/ any bay breeze boundaries, so when the Colesville weak supercell arrived on the scene (you can trace it back to the DOV tor), it intensified quickly. Actually looking at the radar loop, there were two waves of storms over the Delmarva. First was around noon and then another close to 4pm. Looking at where they fired, it appears there was some kind of boundary N-S over cntrl DE. Also, there were several cells ahead of the main line that merged in, and cell mergers can lead to tornadogenesis. Radar loop attached.

WCWGTH??? https://x.com/EODWX5/status/2090567005967393127 Dover DE spinner today. Classic "forward flank" tor. Happens sometimes w/ HPs. To see these you have to be right up in the notch.