vortex95

I am not sure how well it may perform here b/c since Deep Mind is trained on past events, and there are very few cases in this area of the Pacific compared to the ern Pacific and Atlantic. The HAFS-A and B, which are the best TC physics-based models, do not show the system attaining hurricane-strength. The HAFS-B was much stronger at showing a 965 mb hurricane at 06z, but 12z was weaker, and now 18z has backed down to below hurricane-strength. The both show the system quite asymmetric for convection for it closest pass to the Big Island, which we can already see on sat (all on the N side).

1.26" rain in just 24 min as well.

What model is this? Attached is main NHC model suite for intensity, and it looks reasonable given the environment. Regarding the environment, speculation for capping of intensity can be minimized b/c satellite tells the story. All the stratocu evident N and W of the TC indicates a stable atmosphere, which is not conducive for much strengthening beyond a minimal hurricane. See VIS image attached. 12z GFS gets it down to 996 mb near the Big Island before it weakens. ECMWF is the same. HAFS-A min is 998 mb and HAFS-B is 988 mb, but only b/c HAFS-B is farther S and doesn't get the circulation tangled w/ the mountains of the Big Island. That may happen b/c overall, there seems to be a S trendfor the track w/ the most recent model consensus.

@CoastalWx : "What?, I HAZ snowed in August???!!!"

2026 - the year CT gets soaked and focused HVN-Hamden SVR! "Why can't that ever happen around Weymouth!?"

Two days in a row supercells in cntrl VT. The action ydy during the day, overnight, and now tdy over-performing, and @CoastalWx still be like MEH!

And North Haven had tstm wind damage 8/10! All happens and hail HVN (not Weymouth)! Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service New York NY 845 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0619 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 1 N North Haven 41.40N 72.85W 08/11/2026 New Haven CT Law Enforcement Tree down across Washington Avenue in North Haven. Time estimated by radar.

And @CoastalWx still misses the storms! Can he at least hear T to the S?

Yes, the ""tor psbl" tag gives a lot more leeway yet covers the threat just the same. It is a good "in-between" and works b/c now we know there are so many little spin-ups in SQLN situations. Some are very transient, but still can do damage. Then you have gustnadoes w/ can be up to EF1 strength, but do not count as tornadoes unless they connect to the cloud base, which often not easy to determine in the more moist environment and less visibility compared to the Plains.

This Aug 1871 hurricane made landfall on the Big Island as an estimated Cat 3. Detailed analysis here: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/99/1/bams-d-16-0333.1.xml

Yes, the criticism has been rife. Most armchair ppl were calling it out b/c of what KLWX radar showed. They failed to account for TBWI radar! Many of these kind of QLCS spin-ups are low-level, and if the radar is not close (say within 30 mi), it can overshoot the solid low-level rotation. QLCS tors are *far* more common than once thought. They account for 20% of all tors now.

Can @weatherwiz see the CB from his place??? Clear as a bell to the N! No warning on this? Strong hail core. White VIL on Radarscope means svr almost for sure. Obviously a supercell, and 90% of all supercells produce some form of svr wx.

I am not impressed w/ this cntrl Pacific system (now PTC 01C). It is broad and monsoonal, and lots of dry air at mid-levels just to its NW over a large area along w/ stable stratocu present (see WV and VIS attached). A trough develops over HI as the system approaches the Big Island (see 850-200 shear attached at 90 hr), so another negating factor. Being a larger monsoonal-type TC, this prevents it from becoming tight and solid RI phases. Also, long parcel trajectories around the system promote more dry air intrusions into the center. I think it will be no worse than a typical strong Kona low HI gets almost every winter. Significant impact yes, but one has to look beyond the media hype and the fact it has a name. That does not change actual wind, surf, or rain. 50 kt winds and 20" of rain is the same whether it comes from a TC or ET low. Even though direct TC strikes on HI are uncommon, they are used to such conditions (a strong TS) from Kona lows. That makes a big difference for preparations and overall less shock and awe. I like to look at the SHIPS output for TC as you can sum up things fairly quickly as to shear and dry air issues in the fcst. Here is the 12/12z run for 01C: https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northcentralpacific/2026/cp932026/stext/26081212CP9326_ships.txt Look at the SHEAR (KT) and SHEAR DIR lines, You see it increases by 72 hr, not high, but look at the direction, out of the W, and w/ the TC moving to the W? That's a problem. And the 700-500 MB RH line. Environmental mid-level RH is key. Anything bellow 60% is not good and you can see it drops below 40% by 84 hr. The are many others items in the SHIPS output, but the shear and RH I find most useful. Now, there are caveats. When you have a large and strong TC, it can fight off modest shear and its inner core can remain isolated from dry air in the surrounding environment., Shear and RH values front he SHIPS did *not* work well at all for HU Ian in Sep 2022 leading up to the FL landfall. Shear was quite strong (over 30kt ) and RH below 60%, and it still intensifies to a Cat 5! But for nascent or weaker TCs, modest shear and dry air at mid-levels are typically a significant hindrance. When these factors are present, it's hard for any TC to get above Cat 2 strength. For 01C, I think 60 kt for a peak is a good fcst. Once it gets well beyond HI near the Dateline, it looks like it could become much stronger.

Pffttt! Lame X post. He does not specify how *strong* El Nino was those years. That makes a big difference. And there have been 10 El Nino events since 1994, so where are the other 7 for comparison? 2002-03 was strong El Nino. How did that winter do? /S 2009-10 was strong El Nino, what happened that winter? /S We should be looking at very strong El Ninos only. We've have 4 since the 1950s, 1982-83, 1991-92, 1997-98, 2015-16. It is a mixed bag, leaning toward below avg snowfall, but there was the Feb 1983 blockbuster and also Jan 2016. So it does not mean it is a complete loss. Also, sample size, 4 very strong El Ninos in 70 years does not tell us the full gamut of what can happen, so don't let the @CoastalWxDebbie Downer attitude rule here! There are no less than a dozen other global and regional oscillations going on and how they interact w/ El Nino can and does lead to the unexpected. Case in point, normally in very strong El Nino, Cali is soaked and the Pac NW is dry. Well, that did not occur in 2015-16, it was the exact opposite! Also, the wx/atmosphere does not work linearly. In other words, just b/c this may be the strongest El Nino in modern times, does not mean you simply extrapolate in one direction based off other very strong events, esp. when it comes to regional sensible wx and the specifics.