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vortex95

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KDCA
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    Male
  • Location:
    MD

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  1. vortex95
    Thanks. I stand corrected!
  2. vortex95
    Correction to the above. Here is revised ACE list top 20. Got it from this site: https://global-tropical-cyclones.com/ All sort of neat global TC stats here. Allow one to quantify all basin season-to-date well along the historical info. Also this site is great as well. https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/||
  3. vortex95
    And @CoastalWx said the convection was "boring" due to lame LTG!
  4. vortex95
    It's 530am, why would there be that much LTG at this time of day? And I count 30 CGs in CT/MA in the last hr. So that means a lot of ICs. @CoastalWx"BUT I ONLY COUNT CGS!"
  5. vortex95
    You do realize this is a tropical air mass. If you are looking for big tstms/svr, you should know better!
  6. vortex95
    Correction. Not Key West 7/24/26, It is actually this: Corrotoman River in Mollusk, Lancaster County VA 7/4/22 Thank to @Rhino16 for pointing this out. https://x.com/deZabedrosky/status/2081401272578531578 Note that in order to listen to the audio and full size a video on X, you have to login now. About as classic "true" waterspout as you can get. Thin tall tube, slow moving, no rain, LTG, or wall cloud present, just TCU. Notice that after the base vortex moves over the dock, it re-emerges more intense and focused. This happens sometimes for spouts when the first come ashore. The rapid increase in friction can strengthen the base temporarily .
  7. vortex95
    Correction. Not Key West 7/24/26, It is actually this: Corrotoman River in Mollusk, Lancaster County VA 7/4/22 https://x.com/deZabedrosky/status/2081401272578531578 That's @weatherwiz on the dock letting the the vortex come over him! Note that in order to listen to the audio and full size a video on X, you have to login now. About as classic "true" waterspout as you can get. Thin tall tube, slow moving, no rain, LTG, or wall cloud present, just TCU. Notice that after the base vortex moves over the dock, it re-emerges more intense and focused. This happens sometimes for spouts when the first come ashore. The rapid increase in friction can strengthen the base temporarily .
  8. vortex95
    Dolphin appears to be en route to a very large eye. Inner eyewall is quite thin on W side. Not sure if drier air has got entrained into the W quad of the system or it is artifact of the next ERC. Either way, a lot of time still for this TC to evolve further, and no reason to think it will not end up being a "donut!"
  9. vortex95
    PT time for @weatherwiz b/c 2% spinner risk for CT now! I can see that. Even though winds are unidirectional sfc-aloft, they are quite strong at 925 and 850. 30-50 kt W to E from central CT to ern MA. Anything over 30 kt means spinner business. 30 -50 kt at 850 as well. Attached is GFS sounding for ern CT at 18z. 38 kt 0-6 km shear is enoughs for supercell and 30 kt 0-1 km shear is excellent for spinner potential. HRRR shows large areas of 0-3 km CAPE 100+ so there is your low-level stretching. Classic tropical tor set up where best winds, relatively speaking, are at low-levels.
  10. vortex95
  11. vortex95
    One thing for future reference. We have so many models now to chose from, and recently I had been looking at the ICON model. I've been watching it for the past several days, and it has a clear high bias for TC intensity in Dolphin's case. It tends to initialize the storm too low pressure and intensify it to the 880s once near China. That doesn't make much sense given how Dolphin keeps expanding from ERCs and its large eye already. And also it continues to gain latitude. Empirical observations over time show that TCs almost never regain their former intense "glory" after their initial first intense peak (often w/ a pinhole eye). So keep the ICON in mind for this b/c you know how some will pick the model that shows the absolute worst, and run w/ that! I still would like to see how the ICON handles long-tracked systems in other basins.
  12. vortex95
    What were some of the bigger totals you have heard? I had one person tell me 3" in Chevy Chase.
  13. vortex95
    One thing that has been consistent, Well-defined circuation at 700/500 w/ a pool of high PWATs, so that may eventually add to rainfall up and down the E Coast.
  14. vortex95
    HRRR and RRFS are in good agreement swaths up to 4" both SNE and NNE. Given how local media really leaned into drought conditions, this should silence them, EXCEPT BOS prop is still -8.45" for the yea (2" too low from the snow LEQ issues), while PVD/PWM are less than -3" and ORH/much of central and western new England are AOA Y-T-D! And the HRRR/RRFS seem to screw BOS again for sig rain. Gonna be a microdrought area soon! But no real impact since draining downstream and reservoirs to the W are filling up. Local drought is not the same as widespread drought. And short-term drought everywhere is not an issue now, it just long-term drought for deficits. I'm sure everyone's gardens large and small are doing just fine after the wet July, as one example!
  15. vortex95
    Tropical sounding. Lapse rates all below 5.5 C/km, but that's ok b/c the deep layer high dew points make up for it, and just a small amount of heating sets things off. That's why the convective temp is so low, as noted. K-index 38 and PWAT 2.16", so there is your juice! 0-6 km shear 31 kt so close to support supercells. Low-level turning on the hodograph not bad either.
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