vortex95

Trajectory is solid ESE and that would put it eventually into cntrl VT. "

There is more upstream going in Ontario as well. Looks like some supercell splits here.

Bust in ME? The main show storms were always going to be late in NNE -- 7pm or later, including ME. Just delayed a bit now, either by smoke reduced max temp or just a bit slower forcing overall. The word "bust" is used *far* too often and early when things do not go *exactly* as fcst.

Now finally storms w/ some meat!

Never turn you back on an EML in the evening/overnight, esp. when storms fall during the day. This happens countless times in the Plains/Midwest. EML is an EML, doesn't matter where you are.

Yes. The thing is its not like there have been no storms at all in srn Quebec and NNE so far, so the convective temps has been reached. And those storms that did develop laid down boundaries to provide focus for other storms. I am just surprised the storms that developed have not been supercells b/c the enviroment is primed. Any updraft should rotate quickly, and then mesocyclone feedback makes the updraft stronger, and you get a solid supercell. Look at the SCP and SIGTOR values currently! And the K-index. There is a focused band of 850/700 moisture and obvious boundary near the border. Maybe nocturnal effects such as the strengthening LLJ and BL decoupling need to come into play here. The models clearly showing the 925 and 850 winds ramping up this evening. This happens a lot in the Plains/Midwest and you still get nasty tstms. Tor potential is typically limited though as MCS clusters/lines are more common.

Blast furnace w/ BOS now G32kt?

Having the Doppler radars now in Canada really helps for NNE radar coverage, esp. since CXX is practically useless ern semicircle. It still amazes me that the NWS was not allowed to put the CXX radar on a mountain top when it was installed in the late 90s. This action thumbs its nose at protection of lives and property, and should override anything else in this case. Was that due to VT State Regulations about towers on mountain tops? It wasn't always that way, right? Mt Mansfield has communication towers.

Wow, great reports! "Leaf salad," LOL. It is amazing how efficient large hail is shreding trees very quickly!

WxWiz will do his best to apply "english" to the risk areas to nudge them closer to CT!

The watch now would not be for the big stuff later I think. Marginal svr is psbl this aftn in cntrl/nrn ME. The tor box would be later for far nrn VT/NH, and NW ME.

Dual pol makes it easier w/ the TDS. It really narrows things down and gives confidence, so the NWS may be more inclined to send a survey to the area(s) despite the remote location, And now we have drones to scout out areas that are not accessible by road/foot. And I think at times if a strong TDS is present in a very remote area, the NWS will count that as a tor even if no survey or ground reports.

Stranger things have happened! How about this from July 1987? I think I will be a 2.5 mi wide F4 and cross the Continental Divide! https://www.tornadotalk.com/teton-wilderness-wy-tornado-july-21-1987/

Wait, no or yes? This is the first time for a ME 10% tor risk you mean?