vortex95

I am not sure. A warm front passed early in the day, so that would mean RW/TRW were likely. In the afternoon, it was three distinct supercells, one in NH and two in MA. Then I think w/ the actual cold front there were few more severe storms, based on photos near sunset that showed crisp CBs on the horizon well the E of Rutland MA. Warm front passages in the morning w/ RW/TRW occurred both on 7/10/1989 and 6/1/2011.

The lawns in Weymouth will be thankful.

Ok. I haven't looked in detail satellite loop for 10/3/1979. On 7/10/1989, sunrise in ern MA was clear and cool (60 F). Warm front tstms moved through by mid-morning, and then it stayed high OVC after in the warm sector.

Two things that seem to work very well when El Nino is very strong. 1) The CONUS has a mild winter overall. and 2) the Atlantic is suppressed for TCs. This is one of the few truly long range forecasts (months) that actually have a high success rate!

Yes, the was some sun I bet in CT, but mostly cloudy overall in SNE. I noted that day in Woburn it was breezy and a thick high OVC by early afternoon. I went up to U Lowell to monitor the radar, and then noted the monster cell W of ALB. My drive from Lowell to HFD was OVC the entire time. Did not make it to HVN in time and I was just ahead of the MA tornadic supercell moving SE from Hubbardston, but I had no idea there was tornadic there (it formed rapidly after I left Lowell) b/c the VIS sucked! Even though in the HFD area missed the monster supercell, other cells hit the area, and one a drove though, I have never seen it get so dark approaching any storm in New England. The LTG was not crazy, but did it pour!

CoastalWx "mad" b/c the SLGT stops just short of Weymouth! LOL.

Oct 1979 was an odd duck. Not sure of the left movement as a factor. Maybe more CT Valley localized SRH enhancement and pure dynamics. It was right at the triple point occlusion, almost a like light version of the 1925 Tri-State Tor when the supercell followed closely the sfc low. This also occurred in NC/SC on 3/28/1984. Supercell was closely associated w/ a 980 mb sfc low and produced 15 tors, 7 that were F4! Reanalysis fcst using hires models presented at the SNE conference in ORH some 20 years ago noted that nothing stood out as any real tor potential for the 10/3/1979 event. It was the only tor and supercell, and no other svr wx reports in SNE that day outside that one cell. They also did reanalysis of 6/9/1953, and of course that stood out no problem. The BDL tor did $250M in damages. Adjusted for inflation, that would be $1.1B today. That makes it the costliest tor in New England history. At the time, the BDL F4 was the third costliest U.S. tor on record w/ the $400M at #1 from the SPS F4 in April that year and #2 Xenia OH F5 in April 1974. ORH tor in 1953 adjusted for inflation would be $658M, but in the 1953, the $53M in damages was the costliest U.S. tor up to that time.

You mean "right-moving!"

July 10, 1989, virtually no sun in SNE after late morning from a thick high OVC. Didn't matter. BDL went from 68 to 86 no problem and a 10 deg DP rise into the 70s almost all on advection once the warm front passed. A kiddie Scott had no idea a spinner would occur in Brockton that day!

Scott shying away from his winter weenie passion?

Wow, great report. Were you there at home when it passed? Could you see the funnel? Aprox time?

Hence "CoastalWx!?"

Scott uses the TBOS FAA radar for local wind insights. The pride of Weymouth - having a radar! LOL.

Sun could be interesting. Ydy it acted more like a BDF and cool marine infested, but tdy not at all. BDF in a classic sense occurs when it is anticyclonic NW flow here w/ high heights/thickness, and the only cool air is very shallow. Not the case here at all. It is cyclonic flow aloft w/ falling heights and a decent vort/shortwave moving in Sun aftn. GFS/ECM show half-decent CAPE and w/ the cold 500 temps and dynamic support, could be good in some areas. Not honkin' svr, but I bet good enough for WxWiz! The front sagging just to S may actually help in this case. Also, cells dropping N to S? They tend to do well.

Yes, and ASOS is as well. Recall it was noted that whatever falls in the ASOS gauge and melts as LEQ, can't be adjusted? So the 37.9" at PVD in the Feb storm had only 1.78" LEQ. That seems high the 21:1 ratio. BOS is much worse. 17.1" and only .47" LEQ for that storm? PVD -5", ORH -3.5", BDL -2.5" CON -2". So the -7.5" at BOS does not fit. And we are talking the first 5 months of the year where you do not have higher local differences from convection. But the media doesn't care, they just take thing as face value and run w/ it.