vortex95

Where is @CoastalWx in this discussion? He is oddly quiet! "Fake" radiational cooling cold repeated ends up making epic deep layer cold in the Arctic and builds very strong high pressure, and that spills down into the CONUS eventually. Very low 1000-500 thk and 925/850 and the sfc very cold as well.

So here is a list I compiled long ago listed typical and atypical remarks found on SA airport reports before ASOS and METAR was adapted. REMARKS FOUND ON SA REPORTS CB W-N DRFTG W ACMAM OMTNS E-SE T N MOVG SE BD DSNT W T NW MOVG RPDLY SE PRJMP 21/0000/04 T MOVD S D2 TWR VSBY 1/2 HAIL SHAFT DSNT E FEW AC GREEN SKY NW T OVHD MVMT UNKN LARGE CB NE WATERSPOUT B22 1E MOVG LTL ARCUS ROLL CLD NW TB32E55 DSPTD DARK GREEN RWU N-NW OCNL LTGICCG N-NE LAST FQT LTGICCCCGCA ALQDS TCU BLDG RPDLY W-N CONTUS LTGCG VLY FOG FEW CU OVHD AND SW T OHVD-NE-S MOVG SLOLY SE VSBY LWR NW-NE LUNAR ECLIPSE SE FQT LTGICCCCW CORONA LTG W-NW SUN DOG OCNL DSNT LTG N MOON ECLIPSE VSBL E HLSTO 2 EARTH OVERSHADOWING MOON PRESFR FQT VIVID LTGCG N PRESRR GF IN LOW SPTS PRES UNSTDY APRNT FROPA MDT CU ALQDS OCNL SPKLS TCU E CLDS OBSCG MTN TPS NE-SE CB SW-W MOVG NE RW- OCNLY RW TORNADO OVHD MOVG NE RADAT ZERO| TORNADO MOVD N DRFTG SNW TORNADO B14E27 DSPTD BS3 CB PARENT CLD E MOVG E RVR10- FUNNEL CLOUD NE MOVG NE LSR08 SNOINCR 5/8/21 GRDL WNDSHFT S5 R05RVR50V60+ F4 WND LGT AND VRBL R1 ZRIPE39 SUN DMLY VSB SIL RADAT 93M041054096/2 SB1453E10 CHH RADAT DLAD THN SPOTS IOVC OUN RADAT MISG VSBY 1/2V1 RADAT N/A INTMT R- BA POOR PCPN VRY LGT PTCHY ICE ON RWY CIG RGD GREEN SKY IN LGT FLASHES NE FEW ST 5 HND VRY DRK E-S WND SHFTD GRDLY HLSTO PEA SIZE CI NE LRG BINOVC W HAZY ROTATING CLOUDS NW AC S T ALQDS STNRY BINOVC WALL CLOUD NW R- OCNL R BD OVR RWY PKWND 3462/20 SQUALL LINE NW DRK SW FQT DEADLY LTGICCCCG ALQDS PCPN 120 TOTAL PCPN 1.90 IN 36 MINS OCNL RW- DEBRI ALOFT AB17E21 ACFT MISHAP WND 26V34 T2 SET SML BINOVC DOWNBURST 2 W OF AIRPORT F DVLPG CB ANVIL N OVR LAKE RWU S-SW WR// BLK CLDS ALQDS RCRNR LN TCU W CIG 5V7 VSBY E 1 SEA BREAKING OVER BARRIER ACCAS S-SW TIDAL FLOODING HALF WEATHER STATION ISOLATED DUE TO TIDE WET SNW OBS SECURED BKN V SCT BRKS N SCT V BKN CLR W SFC VSBY 1 1/4 SC BANK NW FROPA HUR COND 1 SET WNDSHFT 40 ROTOR CLDS NW RF8 SCSL W LOWEST PRES 946 CCSL N-E OCNL SW- RDGS OBSCD W-N BD5 KOCTY FEW CUFRA F ALG RIVER T 6NE MOVG NE TIDE MINUS 001 UNCONFIRMED TORNADO 5W MVMT UNKN TIDE PLUS 005 CBMAM 5NW MOVG NE HAZE LYR ALQDS CB ALQDS NOSPL ACSL ALQDS STMG ALQDS BLDG CU W F DSPTG H1 F MOVG IN FM SW CC OVHD CLRG NW FQT LTGICCC IN CB NE-S CLR ALF MOON DMLY VSBL INTMT L- HIR CLDS VSBL SE COMMUNICATION FAILURE FEW STFRA SCUD DSNT ALQDS SWU ALQDS LLWS ALERT AURBO ARPT CLSD SNW RMVL T E LTL MVMT RVRNO ROTATION OBSERVED IN CLOUDS WND GUSTY VIRGA SE-S RAINBOW E TORNADO WENT UP INTO THE CLOUDS RW+ OCNLY RW- LRG CB WITH OVERSHOOTING TOP DSNT NE LSRPSRIR20P DRY WND DIRECTION EST DUE TO BIRD ON WND IRLSR17P WET VANE SANDED CONTRAILS OVC PTLY THN ST ALG RIVER SW-W THIN ICE PELLET LYR ON GRND LUNAR HALO LWR SCUD ALG HILLS E & W APRNT HVY RW S-SW CLDS TPG MTNS NE-SE POWER OUT AT STATION AT 12Z HVY FRST D ALF NMRS GUSTS 35 KTS PST HR LTG NOT OBSVD NO APRNT LTG CLD BNK NW TOT RN 767 F BLO SMT DARK S SKY DARK SW-NW DSPTG CU ALQDS T 2W STNRY PSBL CB DSNT SE HRZN DSNT LTG E AT 2028Z WT 28 SEAS 3-5 HALO AND PARHELION WALL CLOUD DVLPG SW OCTY AC FLOCCUS W-NW LK TEMP 66 TWO WELL DEFINED SC BANDS DSNT NW-NE AND DSNT SW-SE

Well, even when it is epic for @CoastalWx in Weymouth. He gets two 20"+ storm last season, which he has not seen before, and still finds excuses to complain! It's along the same lines as, "the fcst was for 3 ft and I only got 2! WORST FCST EV-A!"

If only @CoastalWx could be so overjoyed from convection!

In the 4 previous very strong El Nino years, Last TS or HU formation date 1982 - 9/30 1991 - 10/31 1997 - 10/14 2015 - 11/8 So odds would suggest we are done for the season. Nothing apparent on the models for the next week.

Another DY4-8 SPC Outlook at 2130z starting 11/16 https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2026/scn26-95_Day4-8_SWOD.pdf

@weatherwiz and @ineedsnow all excited? DY4-8 SPC outlook will be update 2x a day soon! https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2026/scn26-95_Day4-8_SWOD.pdf

Yes they can, but we have yet to see and epic E Coast snow winter overall w/ such strong El Nino. I am talking the NEUS. Mid-Atlantic one Miller A and they get double the normal snowfall! The cold in place prior to the Feb blockbuster was solid. So it can happen, just don't expect a long persevere snowfall like @CoastalWx wants!

One period in one month does not make a winter. You'll see ppl just focus on those select periods they got right, when what matters is the overall avg for the entire winter! "97-98 had a November winter event." Ok....many Novs do, your point? Dec 23, 1997 there was a surprise 1-2 footer in SNE. A winter event. Did that change anything in the mean for temp in the CONUS overall that winter? No. I had 42,6" that winter in Woburn. That's 15" below avg. I did have 6.4" in Nov which is above avg. But again, slicing and ice down short periods is cherry-picking. For Woburn,for the 4 very strong El Nino prior, one was close to avg snowfall (1982-83), and the other three below. That does not make a "big" winter in the @CoastalWx context!

Here are the CPC temp forecasts for winters 2013-14 to 2024-25 (left) and on the right as to what actually happened. This is not targeting CPC here, just showing how long-range forecasts are generally not good. There is a distinct warm bias for the winter forecasts in this particular case set.

Also, regarding my previous post, when El Nino is this strong, mild air *rules* across most of the Lower 48 for most of the winter. The polar vortex is secondary. All other very strong El Ninos have had very mild conditions for the winter in the Lower 48. The only cold air shots, and they are not too intense and are brief, are in the Northeast. Why not just say that b/c you hare wx history and analogs to support your fcst. That is the most logical course and has a virtually 100% success rate given past event. Any more is just pure speculation and content to just draw out talk about the wx b/c it gets the ratings.

This is one of the worst interviews I have ever seen. All I can say, the two ppl are both TOOLS in the own way. The Fox person is classic drama-hound w/ a forced urgent tone and keeps poking the person interview for certainties in the forecast ("meteorologists and climatologists aren't are quite sure what to make of it!" -- ???, just made up nonsense to set the drama tone). The person interviewed (Cohen) talks in vague and waffle terms, stating "anything is possible" and just goes back in forth w/ content that does not say anything that is of real practical value. It's all over the place, To the avg person, they get nothing out of this. Just hear stuff that's over their heads b/c of the meteorology complexity and nothing concrete, just a lot of "could happens" and "what ifs." Useless segment. Merely content to fill air time and of course its wx, so have to push that no matter what. The monetization of wx is out of control and it ruining the science. This obsession w/ advanced meteorology for public consumption is ridiculous. Let's sound techy to impress and feign like it is important. The avg person does not care, they just want the forecast and concise, reasonable statements, not all the drama, hedging and vagueness! Also, the polar vortex is pushed as some scary phenomena. It is *normal* feature of the polar regions, and yes, it does modulate cold air outbreaks into the CONUS and elsewhere in the world, but they just can't leave it at that. Just b/c the media says this meteorological term over and over and talks about it w/ all the drama, does *not* physically make it any more or less than it is! Once again, they turn the ordinary into the extraordinary merely for content and hype. Deplorable. Don't get me wrong, such a discussion like this ok, but it is made for meteorology circles b/c it is complex subject. Not being haughty or a snob, just I understand the audience here. Unlike ppl on this group, the vast majority don't give a hoot about such complex wx things. And for those who are interested, I am going to call out such an interview segment for it saying a lot w/o anything much of anything.

Be more specific. how to piss off @CoastalWx!

It seems the disturbance NE of Arnab (90B) has quite the organization and IMHO is a minimal TS as it is about to make landfall as I type this. 3 microwave passes since 27/2000z clearly show a well-defined center w/ impressive curved banding (attached). Nascent CDO w/ cloud tops as cold as -87 C and a fairly quick NW motion would support minimal TS-force winds. Radar shows a well-defined system at landfall. Look a the amended 03z TWO update from JTWC. See below. "Dissipated?" I find that disingenuous and a lie. Yes, I know JTWC is not the RSMC and IMD takes care of it, but it just goes to show the issues outside NHC's AOR w/ "shorties" not counted still these days. And sometimes they are not just weaksystems these shorties! Either way, locally there would be sig impacts where 90B makes landfall. Is that not important? If this was NHC AOR, they would have declared it a TC, and I would agree 100%. It is what it is! ABIO10 PGTW 280300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN REISSUED/280300Z-281800ZOCT2026// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280152ZOCT2026// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 28OCT26 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (ARNAB) WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 81.6E, APPROXIMATELY 543 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 280300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 85.1E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).// NNNN

From Scott's fav wx movie, CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF MEATBALLS!