vortex95

More for HVN area!

NHC gives Lala 55 kt at 00z. Yes, the pressure is down 2 to 995 mb, but peak 700 mb FL winds are only 53 kt w/ max SFMR surface winds of 48 kt. Standard reduction for 700 winds to the surface and the SFMR winds are matched well here, so 50 kt seems more appropriate. The 2330z Dvorak analysis gives T3.0 which equals 45 kt. So the satellite signature is not 55 kt, which would be a T3.5. Satellite signature does still matter even when recon is present b/c recon can only sample a small part of the storm. Satellite gives a complete view. Also, the above was a manually-done Dvorak fix. The Automated Dvorak Technique (ADT) gives a T2.6, so that is even weaker. All these things go into what to assign a TC for intensity. Looking at the EIR loop, there is no real change in organization, and the deep convection is pulsing and not banded well. Loop attached, We all see the same data, so not arm-chairing here, just giving an objective meteorological analysis, and talking about the different tools and products one can use to make their own assessment, which is a good thing to do!

Not sure which would do this first, but I know they would do it for different reasons! @CoastalWx would do it b/c he pines for snow, and @weatherwiz would b/c he is just happy getting hail! https://www.facebook.com/reel/1613750856948083 hailPHUN.mp4

1601z SAR pass does not show a well-organized system (see attachment). Looks like there are two LLCCs and this large N-S gap of light winds and strong asymmetry. I don't know why NHC keeps saying, "conditions generally favorable." That is vague. Dry air and shear are an issue. CMISS 18z analysis showed 18 kt of westerly shear present. Lala was 50 kt/997mb at 03z and still is 50 kt/997mb at 21z. 2156z recon shows these values unchanged. Models still show an upper-level trough developing over the western Hawaiian Island as Lala gets close to the Big Island, so that is not "favorable" in an overall sense. NHC seems to be hedging higher and using persistence IMHO. One possible factor is that topographic convergence may tighten the wind field along the srn tip of the Big Island as gets close for 64 kt winds, but that's a local mesoscale factor not directly related to actual intensification of the TC synoptically. Topographic influences for winds are to be discarded for assigning actual TC intensity AFAIK. It is similar to discarding mesoscale higher winds from intense pulsing convection when shear is present for the TC (Bertha had this big time) or a transient mesovort in the eye. Still a significant impact on Hawaii, not downplaying that, just talking above about the finer details of meteorological analysis, which I hope some find informative.

And it was only a MRGL day! 8/12 and 8/13 were excellent examples of how "only" has gen tstm and MRGL out can be deceptive or promote the @CoastalWx MEH! MRGL say nothing about how intense any given tstm will be. And you can having honkin' supercells no problem. I recall in April 2024, MRGL for NC/SC and one storm produced 4" stones in SC! The HVN MB?, in a general tstm area, yet we get a high-end wind gust. And the PWM area ydy as noted. But the actual svr reports are isolated/sct as shown on the SPC plot from 8/12 and 8/13. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/260812_rpts.gif https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/260813_rpts.gif And now for today, suddenly a narrow gen tstms area gets upgraded to MRGL at 1630z. Decent 500 s/w and temps drop to -17 C at 500 (that is quite good for August - and ydy they were -14 to -15 C). When it's good, it's good (NW flow and cold temps aloft RULZ!!!) I don't want to hear any IMBY "I didn't get anything!" whining either!

Can you provide a link to the CSU MLP?

The HVN area just can't be left alone!

I am not sure how well it may perform here b/c since Deep Mind is trained on past events, and there are very few cases in this area of the Pacific compared to the ern Pacific and Atlantic. The HAFS-A and B, which are the best TC physics-based models, do not show the system attaining hurricane-strength. The HAFS-B was much stronger at showing a 965 mb hurricane at 06z, but 12z was weaker, and now 18z has backed down to below hurricane-strength. The both show the system quite asymmetric for convection for it closest pass to the Big Island, which we can already see on sat (all on the N side).

1.26" rain in just 24 min as well.

What model is this? Attached is main NHC model suite for intensity, and it looks reasonable given the environment. Regarding the environment, speculation for capping of intensity can be minimized b/c satellite tells the story. All the stratocu evident N and W of the TC indicates a stable atmosphere, which is not conducive for much strengthening beyond a minimal hurricane. See VIS image attached. 12z GFS gets it down to 996 mb near the Big Island before it weakens. ECMWF is the same. HAFS-A min is 998 mb and HAFS-B is 988 mb, but only b/c HAFS-B is farther S and doesn't get the circulation tangled w/ the mountains of the Big Island. That may happen b/c overall, there seems to be a S trendfor the track w/ the most recent model consensus.

@CoastalWx : "What?, I HAZ snowed in August???!!!"

2026 - the year CT gets soaked and focused HVN-Hamden SVR! "Why can't that ever happen around Weymouth!?"

Two days in a row supercells in cntrl VT. The action ydy during the day, overnight, and now tdy over-performing, and @CoastalWx still be like MEH!

And North Haven had tstm wind damage 8/10! All happens and hail HVN (not Weymouth)! Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service New York NY 845 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0619 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 1 N North Haven 41.40N 72.85W 08/11/2026 New Haven CT Law Enforcement Tree down across Washington Avenue in North Haven. Time estimated by radar.