vortex95

And 39 years ago today, the best early season PT snow event ev-A! Needless to say, it was not fcst! Accum map attached but it's off a bit. 7" fell at DXR and 1" at HVN. Max amount of 26" at Slide Mtn NY and 22" at Grafton NY. 18" at Pownal VT. A trace of snow fell as far E as Ashburnham MA in the @ineedsnow area and as far S as NYC. Not just an elevation storm as even ALB got 6". I have read that the snow was so wet, it was 3:1 ratio, but I do not think that is possible. Let the snow weenie here chime in on this -- "what was the lowest snow ratio event you have had?" It is the first time the term "warm snowstorm" was used, as many areas never fell below 32 for the entire event. Did an 8 year old @CoastalWxrecall waking up this Sunday morning and wondered, "how could this happen?!" Does he even remember it at all?

And in case @CoastalWx thinks "this is too early for a Gulf wave," enter Oct 3-4, 1992. He's be surprised... Sig tor outbreak in the TPA area, 5 foot storm surge in the FL PH, and over 10" of RPLUS in Brunswick GA.

The Miller As begin! And it eventually comes to the NEUS.

Now the 00z GFS does what the GFS likes to do w/ TCs in the long range, overly aggressive. What the other global models show do not look very tropical. The system is highly asymmetrical and looks more like a monsoonal depression or STS. With a front fcst across the central Gulf, that appears reasonable. It reminds me of ET lows that you get in the cool season in the Gulf when strong El Nino is present, and the subtropical jet does become more defined in the next week. You can get strong ET lows in Oct in this area. Here's one from Oct 3, 1992. Take note @GaWx of the big rains in Brunswick GA! A strong low pressure system moving northeast out of the Gulf spawned several tornadoes in the Tampa, Florida area. One person was killed and 23 homes were destroyed as an F2 twister moved through Largo. 3 people were killed and 75 were injured in Pinellas Park as an F3 tornado ripped through. Total damage was estimated at 32 million dollars. Heavy rain spread over northern Florida and Georgia on this day and continued into the 4th. Jacksonville, Florida recorded 8.69 inches of rain and Brunswick, Georgia was deluged with 10.14 inches in 24 hours. Strong winds and a long fetch pushed tides 4 to 5 feet above normal along the west coast of Florida.

Be more specific. Let me put it this way, if NNE gets a foot plus and @dendrite is walking in "white gold," and Weymouth is all rain, you are just as mad as if no storm occurred at all!

Well that's part of the issue overall w/ you. Beggars can't be choosers. Now, I guess we can say for @CoastalWx "if it is not a Miller B, who cares...MEH!" And what about the ones that don't "fit?" Dec 9, 2005 for instance, Or the early March 2013 "surprise" event? How about the 100 hr snowstorm late Feb 1969? Oh, wait, "the BOS 26" fell over 100 hr. It was all S- w/ sucky dendritic growth w/ an avg snowfall rate only 1/4"/hr -- WORST EVA!" Meanwhile, in @dendrite country, 50"+ falls!

"I HAZ?"

"Yah but" you do not have to be concerned about the storm developing "too late" or any issues w/ moisture. You do not even need a strong sfc low and still get crushed. Jan 20, 1978 is a classic example. Gave BOS is biggest 24 hr snowstorm up this time.

Looks like @CoastalWx gets to keep his beloved NAM a little longer! As for his "garbage" model (RRFS), it does appear to have issues w/ making deeply occluded lows into TCs too easily. It did that for the most recent storm. But non-TC CAMs usually do.

Since operational intensity was borderline and it's not really a sampling issue, I don't really see how they would bother. I mean, that's not overwhelming data for reanalysis to circumvent the operational intensity, IMO. Lots to consider in this case, and given the dearth of HUs this season, I hope focus on Fay by NHC is not overthought or nitpicked if we do not have any clear HUs for the rest of the season! I am just thinking external pressures that can hurt the objectivity of the met science here (e.g. social media making a stink or crying foul w/ armchair mets and hype-masters going off!). ASCAT has issues in heavy rain areas leading to a high bias. And in convective area that pulse when downbursts are more likely, that is an issue. On that ASCAT image provided from the X link, it is a very small area of 65 kt winds, that can suggest a mesoscale transitory feature., Also, I have seen it noted that Fay had an eye briefly. That was more dry slot residual b/c leading up to that appearance you could see a narrow band of dry air curling into the center. This dry air present also promotes pulsing convection and downbursts. That's one thing I have found questionable at times for assigned intensity. Spot winds are not the same as mean winds. Local convective winds are not the same as avg synoptic gradient winds. Many moderate to strong TS briefly have HU force winds from localized intense convection that pulses in blobs, esp. when some shear and dry air is present, but that does not make them a HU. So one has to be careful here. Sometimes I see "given the possibility of undersampling." That is a slippery slope IMHO. You can always say that in measuring meteorological phenomena, but does that mean you always say it was stronger and go higher? If so, what is the limit as to how much stronger? It is subjective and fluid. Dvorak classifications for TCs do best for winds approx 60 to 105 kt, so that means TDs are often min TSs and intense HUs are often stronger in reality. We know this from recons, but in the absence of recon, we don't officially assign a stronger value due to the limitations of Dvorak. It's why you will not see a system above 160 kt in the Atlantic or eastern/central Pacific in the absence of a recon. Best you can say w/ high confidence is that it was at least this strong and mention "it could have been stronger" in something like the TCR given any number of ancillary factors that can exist when it comes to determining TC intensity. A SAR pass showed 73 kt for Fay, but this remote sensing tech has been shown high bias here as well compared to recon measurements.

@CoastalWx wants one? Pad his yard snow totals? https://www.powder.com/news/ski-ward-begins-snowmaking-september

We need more Miller Cs! Apparently, those are Sandy-type systems. Hazel in 1954 and 1938 fall under that. However, I have been unable to confirm if "Miller C" is a thing officially, but these are unique -- those systems that get a big boost from a TC phase and the TC itself gets the best of both worlds, derived energy from baroclinic and SSTs so they can remain atypical strong much farther N than you'd expect for a TC in our region. Sandy buried WV up to 36" and up to 48" in VT from the 1804 hurricane and Ginny in 1963 w/ 13" in ME. Double PT for @CoastalWx here!

Feb 1983 and March 1993 would disagree w/ you. I say we make a Miller "W" -- those storms that give the max S+ to w/in 5 mi of Weymouth only! Miller As can really tease the Mid-Atlantic weenies, esp. once you get S of DC proper. How many times does it show 20"+ for RIC, and it ends up 3-4" of IP? We don't have that high 1000-500 thk/very cold 850 issue "DA MIX" really in the NEUS.

In the next week, given Rachel and Nolo will be around for some time, we should make it to #2 for most ACE in an E/CPAC season.

1983 was weak La Nina, so it shows the range here. El Nino is not required for a strongly suppressed Atlantic season. Given there are at least a dozen other oceanic/atmospheric oscillations going on globally at any one time, their phases and how they interact obviously are a factor. ENSO just is the most famous and the most influential globally it seems 1983 had one MH that hit HOU directly. One thing though that is consistent w/ suppressed seasons, the TCs, even the strong ones, are often quite small.