vortex95

Let's take one model and run w/ that. To show point totals when there is a lot of model disagreement as to how much and where is foolish. One should be drawing their own map manually and show something like 1-3" general and highlight heavier areas possible and say up to 5-6". That is most reasonable at this time. Like they learned nothing from the last event?

Meteotsunami or seiche. Speed of storms is often key, but local bay/inlets can have odd things happen even w/o fast moving storms.

HP intense tornado in the morning.

34 F for a low at Barre Falls MA 7/1/1988. Same time MWN had 4" of snow for it most snow so late.

"Ever - in our life" Whose life? That is highly variable dependent on the person! Meaningless w/ context or standardization. Slicing and dicing down stats per day for any location you can find that has a record is bottomless pit. Always tons of stats like this, and when you consider how many wx parameters we have records for, and all the locations? Most of it is minutia or meaningless as to sensible wx impact, and yet the "race to the bottom" for content has resulted in this drivel.

What about the 6.5" for Weymouth the HRRR has? Is that a garbage model as well?

Yes once again, duration. 6" in 48 hr is *not* the same as 6" in 6 hr! And w/ areas still w/ deficits, it mitigates things. Wrn and srn CT do has more of flood risk this time tho.

Scott's favorite model does this (00z RRFS)!!! Aug 1955 Diane totals! But the 06z HRRR has almost 7" for Weymouth!

00z HRRR was good for big storm coverage in the DC Metro. 06z has backed off somewhat. 00z was putting it all in one big hit 3-7pm. 06z has sct storms in the area around 5pm, then good coverage e-cntrl and sern VA, then a second decent area coming from the PA border spreading SE 8pm-midnight. 00Z RRFS crushes DC metro at 5pm. 06z was a little less impressive but still solid. It does have the best storms in the RIC area. The MCS that moves from OH overnight to WV and wrn VA by noon appears to weaken enough and far enough away, so by peak heating, we should be ok in the much of the DMV. The best winds at 500 and 250 are S of the DC Metro, so I see why 5% tor risk is in sern VA. The NAM has excellent 925 and 850 winds in the DC Metro w/ nice curved hodographs, but the RRFS is less impressive and the GFS/ECWMF as well. Again, best winds fields are S and SE closer to the NC border.

In SPC's defense, they did have 2% tor risk for the area, and there was only one tor in WI. And at an atypical time of day, before noon CDT! Intense tornadoes in the morning are rather uncommon. It was not synoptically-evident event, but you do not need that for a significant tornado to occur. Sometimes it all works out on a very local scale. Storms deviate more to the right, ride along a warm front/boundary, storm mergers, etc. that can quickly escalate the situation and give you a high-end tornado event. Case in point - 5/25/2016 ern KS. Large area of sight risk and 2% tor area. A long-tracked EF4 occurred at Chapman KS. It is the #1 tornado chase for many chasers who were on it due to its slow movement, visibility, and structure. It avoided populated areas and no fatalities or injures, so it did not get much attention. That supercell that produced it was it for the state that day. See here: https://www.weather.gov/top/longtracktornadohitsnorthcentralks Plainfield IL in Aug 1990 and Jarrell TX in May 1997 are two other classic examples. 8/24/2016, 22 tors in IN/OH in a small cluster, and quite a surprise! https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/160824_rpts.html And then we have 6/5/2024 here, 2% tor risk, and we ended up w/ 13 tors! That caught many by surprise. Warm fronts can be sneaky! Isolated intense tornadoes or local outbreaks can occur at times when it does not look impressive overall synoptically or even on the mesoscale hours before the event. It is not common, but law of averages and large numbers guarantees this will happen every so often.

I appreciate you input and response! My point is that 102 there is not the same as 102 in New England b/c the mean temps in the summer are significantly higher in this part of the county, so they are more used to 100 deg temps, so not as impactful net-net. It all relative to the normal climate. 102 in MLS is like 95 in BOS (dry bulb temp). Also, when they hit 102 on 7/26, dew points were in the mid 30s, so that gave a max heat index of 96, so that's a lot closer to their avg high, and this from a human impact standpoint, is that not better? But the media ignores this. Heat index is only mentioned when it is higher than the air temp. MLS POR is 1937 to present, at least for continuous records for monthly averages, so that removes a significant part of the very hot 1930s as to reference the hottest Julys, so although it has hot periods in recent decades, it is not likely as impressive as it seems given the POR. Yes it is still hot, but we need to adjust for climate of the location and the dew points present. It needs to be scaled. Again, going back to the E Coast media bias, they do not take this into account when reporting. They think 90 is "hot" everywhere. I've seen before, "oh it was so hot in DFW today w/ high of 95!", and their normal high in July is 97. See the problem here? The have no context or perspective. Facts are meaningless w/o context. To them it is all just one "furnace" that will end things.

Ahh, the warm front! Your lawn will thank you! LOL.

That a good point. Actually I just looked, and ydy MLS avg high is 91. 102 is wicked hot for us in New England, but when the avg high temp in July is 6-9 F cooler 91 that in places like BOS/PVD/BDL, it is not so hot to residents in Miles City. The notion that 90 is some kind of benchmark for hot wx is misguided, but try telling that to the MSM. Once again, the E Coast bias, more specifically DCA-BOS, applies here, as if that is typical climate! You often hear X percentage of the CONUS or states AOA 90 on any summer day, acting like that is universally unusual. No it isn't when about 40% of the country has an avg high 90 or higher! Geez, 90 in PHX or LAS in the summer is a *cool* day for them! I was told one time the way to calculate hot, or unusually warm, is take the avg high for the location for a given day, and go 2 standard deviations above that. But I am not sure if you can apply that in all seasons, since big temp swings and deviations are much more common in the winter than summer and the closer to the polar regions you get, the bigger the swings overall.

CoastalWx gonna pull out his warm front QPF fcst rule of thumb?

Pfftt! "Not unlike the blizzard in Feb" as if you can synoptically compare the two? What a bunch of crap! "Ooo, the track is similar!" -- so? That is meaningless by itself. It reminds me of the "Sandy obsession" that occurred for a few years after Sandy occurred. Some national media would put up every hurricane threatening the E Coast "track similar to Sandy." Stupid,. Using a recent high-end event for more hype. Think about so many in NYC and NJ after Sandy and the trauma that occurred from the record storm surge. That's non-trivial stress brought up from ppl just hearing that passively!