vortex95

Bob likely had several spinners in SE MA and CC, but this was two years before the 88D was installed and prior to the NWS MAR (Modernization and Restructuring) in the mid 90s. Documentation of spinners in the NEUS prior to this time? I was not impressed. It was not nearly as systematic and detailed as it is now. Also, the sheer scale of the HU wind damage likely precluded any tor investigations for Bob. Look at this statement from the PVD WSO a few days after Gloria (attached). First, @weatherwiz proby be like, "This is blasphemy! They did not officially counts these! EVERY spinner in New England is a BIG DEAL!" Second, this proves my point about the practices in these days. They had valid and reliable tor reports, but chose to "punt" and do this instead. These tors here do not show up in NCEI Storm Data, so they are not part of the official record. 5 tor reports here, that is significant. How many single days have 5 tors in New England, let any tor in RI? Going back to 1950, up until Gloria, there were only 2 official tors I think in RI in Storm Data, and there were 3 reports from Gloria alone. That is huge from a climo standpoint! Side note: The following year, RI was "vindicated." You had this highly visible spout in Narraganset Bay just offshore of Bristol on July 3, 1986 (not the 8th as said here), and clearly seen from the PVD airport. https://www.pinterest.com/pin/july-8-1986-bristol-rhode-island-narragansett-bay--63894888436120341/ And then RI 3 spinners Aug 7-8, 1986, including an F2 in downtown PVD!

Yes, but this common, esp. in shallow marshes/swamps in S FL. Too many hype-masters act like it significant, but it is not. Also, we have many more marine sites now, not just from NDBC, but NOS and private organizations. You have an entire dense network dedicated to the coastal Everglades (see map attached), so finding a location that has 100 F water temp is not hard these days. What happens if the area is in a dry period or a single location just happens to miss out on diurnal SHRA/TSRA for an extended period in the summer, that stagnant shallow water heats up, but as soon as you get heavy rain at the location, you'll see the water temp plunge into the mid 80s. All this is normal. I see posts merely for hype and content, showing coastal water temps in the low 90s for the cntrl and srn part of FL, when again, this is normal every summer. The angle used is that "this is big fuel for hurricanes!" No, it is not. Local shallow water this warm is not a factor, and really, well before the core of a TC gets to these locations, it has already rained and the water temps have dropped significantly! You need large areas of warm water, and not just skin deep, for a TC to thrive and get intense. And this I bet many are not aware, even some mets. The limit for SSTs over large, open areas (key here *is* "large" and "open") around the globe is ~30-31 C. This is b/c at this temp, evaporation matches the incoming solar radiation, so that caps things off. Also a factor, many areas where the SSTs are this high, the atmosphere is conditionally unstable, so large areas of SHRA/TSRA are common, never mind semi-permanent features such as the ITCZ and monsoon trof present, and this also keeps things in check for SSTs.

What does BN mean? Barnes & Noble?

Synoptically there is light NW flow at 925 mb over FL still tdy, so that makes such events more likely, but as we saw ydy, the mesoscale details were everything. It all lined up perfectly for 2-3 hr. Law of averages and large numbers say this will happen at times! And this time, it just happened to be at a long-term climate site. Also, when one extreme occurs, another one like it in the short-term is often much more likely. Similar patterns breed similar sensible wx. How about that period Jan-Feb 2015? Probably one of the most spectacular examples for New England, and it was so localized, confined to ern MA/RI and Downeast ME, but it was @CoastalWx "VIOLENTLY RELENTLESS! " It used to be thought heat bursts were rare, but once the NWS and FAA installed ASOS/AWOS in the 90s w/ so many more locations and 1-min obs 24/7, we found they are a lot more common than we thought.

Thanks. As w/ so much, there is usually more to the story, or details to add that change what one (or the MSM) may think immediately. You can't just gloss over every event. Not all record high temps, for instance, are due to a large-scale pattern that promote high heat or anomalies. An example would be a heat burst, which are mesoscale phenomena, and I think all-time records at some locations across the globe are due to this phenomena. Another example, and in colder climates this is often the reason for record temps, are local, strong downslope winds (chinook, foehn, sirocco, etc, -- there are many names across the globe for this!). Here's another recent case for hot temps. Hong Kong recently recorded its all-time record high temp (98) on Aug 9. Why?, b/c downslope offshore winds from Typhoon Dolphin that made landfall well to the N. So given the strong tropical sun and lower dew points, why wouldn't this happen? But it does not mean there was a big heat wave in progress across southern China or "heat dome" present! Dolphin was a very large typhoon at landfall, so the atypical part here was that many typhoons make landfall in ern China, and the vast majority of the time, you don't get record hot temps to the S. In this case, you had very long parcel trajectories originating deep within the Asian continent, so there you go. Daily or monthly record high temps have occurred in the CONUS b/c of this. Corpus Christi has had this happen a few time when a hurricane made landfall to the NE, as one example. Where did the dry air pocket come from in FL ydy? I don't know, but it was small-scale, so it does not represent the synoptic or hemisphere pattern either way! And aren't such wx details cool? It shows the sheer variety of what can happen and how there is always something new to learn or something one was not aware of.

@kdxken Not trying to be dogmatic or do any post slamming, so don't take my responses personally. Just stating facts and providing some background/clarification on wx stats and perspective, as wx stats/history is a passion for me. and will apply a bit of levity when I can!

TPA last year?, it seems that where the ASOS in relation to the runway, and the location of jets that taxi on the runway at the time from flight plots (turn point/wait point is in direct line of ASOS), that could have nudged it to 100. In the large picture, this obsession w/ 100 F. 100 is base 10, first number to go from 2 to 3 digits, and psychologically satisfying number, so somehow that makes it more significant from a wx/climate POV? It's a U.S., and more specifically, E Coast-centric mindset, as 100 is not that common. Well, there is a world outside of the East Coast! And we just happen to use the F scale. In C, benchmark numbers for hot temps are 30 and 40 C, so 100 is not some magical number here from a wx/climate POV universally. And we have the K temp scale as well --- oh wait, I just realized how we can hype the heat more! Use the K scale instead, it is *so* much hotter sounding (100 F = 311 K)!!!!

Dew point briefly dropped to 67 which is practically unheard of this time of year. Wind flipped SE and now dew point is 78. Even more amazing HST dew point dropped to 60! Must have been a localized dry pool of air. No RW/TRW in the area in the last 24 hr. It was not b/c anything atypical was going on in the pattern synoptically. GFS 500 and 850 anomalies show nothing of significance. This was a localized phenomena. 925 and 850 winds across much of FL today light NW. If you look at climo for the area, the wind, outside of convection, is rarely out of the NW at any appreciable speed in the afternoon this time of year. But not long before the 100 reading today, it was 33011G16KT. But never such details get in the way of a good story or proper perspective. The MSM will act like the wx is extreme and a big heat wave/AGW caused it. MIA is +2.0 F for the month, nothing that unusual. And yes, there are mdt-high drought conditions in S FL, but it is long-term drought. So far in August, it has been near to above normal for rainfall, so you can't say the topsoil is widespread parched that caused the low dew points (M-T-D rainfall attached). MIA also hit 100 on July 21, 1942. I'd like to see what was going on that day for comparison. And of course, the population of Miami-Dade Co. was ~350,000 in 1942. It was 2.7M in 2020. So not a level playing field for proper comparison due to UHI.

Several days after Andrew, Typhoon Omar made a direct hit on Guam. taking out the operation of JTWC (which was based on Guam at the time). NHC was almost taken out by Andrew, and the following month, CPHC in Honolulu narrowly adverted Iniki. The E/CPAC had 27 NS in 1992, the record for this basin. Quite a year!

@CoastalWx should read this before passing summary judgement on the RRFS! RRFS_webinar_20260625.pdf

1704z SAR pass shows Lala is near MH strength. 96 kt and well-defined eye. When the day comes when SAR sensors are on geostationary satellites, that will be an immense advancement for remote TC sensing!

Andrew in Aug 1992 was among the "luckiest" intense hurricanes I have seen. It struggled for days N of the Caribbean due to an upper low. In fact, one could argue it actually lost its sfc circulation for a time as recon found only 1015 mb pressure! FL winds were still near hurricane-force though due to gradient from high pressure to the N, so they keep it going. But then the upper low moved away to the SW and a strong 500 mb high built due N, resulting in nearly ideal conditions, and we saw what happened. 1992 was a "quiet" hurricane season overall, but reanalysis has shown 4-5 systems that were at least of min TS strength (two hurricanes) that were never declared operationally. They will all likely get added once the reanalysis project reaches this year.

I bet there is another meso model out there that has strengths of the NAM. Just we have been so used to the NAM, we have not being forced otherwise to look! So now we will be looking. @CoastalWx misses having access to the IBM GRAF! LOL.

Ahh, one w/ MPAS! So @CoastalWx need to stop complaining! We have a version of the RRFS to compare and we know it is better.