vortex95

Depends on where you were. Don't be a @CoastalWx!

But given we have only 4 very strong El Ninos prior since 1950, we could be surprised. One thing I have come to realize that just when you think you'd seen it all, a big curve ball is thrown, so do no totally dismiss the E Coast for sig snows. Case in point when it comes to very strong El Nino, and I have mentioned this before, we always assumed the Cali gets soaked in such El Nino and the Pac NW dry, but the 2015-16 event, the exact opposite occurred! So even though many regions often get the same sensible wx in this type of El Nino, they can be sig deviations for some. Why not us this time? And locally for this type of El Nino, we can cash in from a not-so-apparent or rather MEH-looking event. Like Dec 23. 1997! And of course, big events like Feb 1983 of Jan 2016. And really 2015-16, we did not do that bad in SNE. Better than the long lamenting 40year period @CoastalWx would not stop b*tching about through Dec 2025! https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/sne-15-16

This guy "Northeast Wx Alert" on FB has been pushing big cold for the NEUS this winter all along, and as soon as the models shows it cold in the long range, he jumps all over it and says things such as "as I was saying" w/ endless patting himself on the back. See the post below. What is funny is that is a 10-day fcst, and he acts like he always "wins" here, when it hasn't even happened yet! Classic weasel fcst statement: "This is precisely the possibility I have been dissing." Using "precise" and "possibility" in the same sentence when talking about a 10-day fcst??? Well, that the problem with this guy, he is *always* talking about the long range and what *might* happen, never the short range or what *is* happening. Never talks about verification of his forecasts, just always hedging and wording things in generic and vague terms w/ about as classic word salad as you can get that is verbose that says nothing, or nothing anyone could not say and have no skills in forecasting, just good w/ the word hustle! I've called him out several times in the past w/ reasonable and valid statements about his style and wording, and of course, all the defensive, and he eventually blocked me. That's tell-tale sign of a hustler/poser or someone who is closed-minded and about ME ME ME! They block you when they know they are cornered and can't rebut/retort from valid statements that give sold criticism. He talks about blocking and the -NAO. Just b/c it gets cold in the NEUS does not mean there is blocking and a -NAO. In such a strong El Nino pattern, the STJ dominates and things are very progressive, so Greenland blocking is largely absent. There is blocking, but it is in central Canada, not the same thing for CONUS sensible wx!

Last year record early depth on Mansfield. I was optimistic for the winter, but @CoastalWx did he typical, "good for them, but NNE is irrelevant to me!" And then look what happened for the winter! "VIOLENTLY BEAUTIFUL" several times for his vista outside his home in Weymouth!

It reminds me when the MSM says, "super warming in Antarctica when temps 50 F above avg! Sounds crazy, right? But when your avg temps are so ridiculously cold, even +50 F is still cold. Vostok's mean month temp ranges from a high of -32 F to a low of -67 F. So do the math! Also, in the polar regions, wild above and below temps are much more common here merely due to its climate. And in typically clueless or disingenuous fashion, I have seen some take a temp anomalies in deg C, and forget to subtract 32 from it for the F equivalent. In other words, 30 C then will be temps 86 F above avg! Anything to push the hot narrative.

And one less hour of diurnal heating! Seriously, I see that in the spring when chase season ramps up...one extra hour of heating! I'd like to say it just trolls or engagement bait, but not always.

@CoastalWx needs to be reminded that in very strong El Nino winters, the only real cold air shots for the CONUS are in the Northeast!

How about "Downeaster?" as in Alexa!

Quite consistent pattern w/ very strong El Nino. The biggest temp anomalies are usually in the Upper MS Vly/Nrn Plains and that's is what this shows well here. All on track. That what the MSM and others do not get. Sure, this type is El Nino is not common, but 1) just b/c something is not common or rare does not mean it is abnormal, 2) very strong El Nino in itself occurs naturally. and 3) the sensible wx that results from it in regions across the globe are completely what is to be expected given other El Ninos like this. This a major problem these days w/ how things are communicated. Everything is pushed as NOT usual or typical simply b/c it has societal and environment impact. As if there should never be any or not times it is worse than others? Has the ATLC HU season been severely suppressed? Yes, Pacific HU season very active? Yes. STJ showing dominance? Yes. Big rains srn Cali and Desert SW? Yes. Miller A tendencies E Coast? Yes. I see narrative pushed that due to warming, the wx is becoming more "unforecastable" or "uncertain." Noting could be further from the truth! And this notion that El Nino gets "worse" w/ warming. So why in the last 30 years, base conditions have become more La Nina? See attachment. I was thinking it may be AMO connected, but it was more El Nino base 1950-1969 when we were still in the favorable AMO phase for big ATLC HUs, and since 1995 that same AMO phase for ATLC HUs has existed, yet more base La Nina, so any direct correlations do not work here.

@CoastalWx wants another "Wild Turkey Surprise" on Thanksgiving like what happened in 1989. A kiddie Scott went to bed that evening mad b/c the snow was going to miss SNE, and when he woke up the next morning to S+ and got nearly a foot in GHG! Does he even recall this event? Big fcst bust. Looked too cold and suppressed. Models no clue. I recall the NWS took down the Winter wx advisory for the S Coast for their 06z update. Then the first obs from BDR at 10z (they were not 24 hr then) had S+ and then quickly put up a winter storm warning!

You seem surprised. Get used to it! Very strong El Nino - 'nuff said!

K3M7 - Lafayette TN KK61 - Beloit KS KHSR - Hot Springs SD KLIU - Littlefield TX KN66 - Oneonta NY PAAE - Ouzinkie AK PANO - Nondalton AK PFKK - Kokhanok AK

Where is @CoastalWx in this discussion? He is oddly quiet! "Fake" radiational cooling cold repeated ends up making epic deep layer cold in the Arctic and builds very strong high pressure, and that spills down into the CONUS eventually. Very low 1000-500 thk and 925/850 and the sfc very cold as well.

So here is a list I compiled long ago listed typical and atypical remarks found on SA airport reports before ASOS and METAR was adapted. REMARKS FOUND ON SA REPORTS CB W-N DRFTG W ACMAM OMTNS E-SE T N MOVG SE BD DSNT W T NW MOVG RPDLY SE PRJMP 21/0000/04 T MOVD S D2 TWR VSBY 1/2 HAIL SHAFT DSNT E FEW AC GREEN SKY NW T OVHD MVMT UNKN LARGE CB NE WATERSPOUT B22 1E MOVG LTL ARCUS ROLL CLD NW TB32E55 DSPTD DARK GREEN RWU N-NW OCNL LTGICCG N-NE LAST FQT LTGICCCCGCA ALQDS TCU BLDG RPDLY W-N CONTUS LTGCG VLY FOG FEW CU OVHD AND SW T OHVD-NE-S MOVG SLOLY SE VSBY LWR NW-NE LUNAR ECLIPSE SE FQT LTGICCCCW CORONA LTG W-NW SUN DOG OCNL DSNT LTG N MOON ECLIPSE VSBL E HLSTO 2 EARTH OVERSHADOWING MOON PRESFR FQT VIVID LTGCG N PRESRR GF IN LOW SPTS PRES UNSTDY APRNT FROPA MDT CU ALQDS OCNL SPKLS TCU E CLDS OBSCG MTN TPS NE-SE CB SW-W MOVG NE RW- OCNLY RW TORNADO OVHD MOVG NE RADAT ZERO| TORNADO MOVD N DRFTG SNW TORNADO B14E27 DSPTD BS3 CB PARENT CLD E MOVG E RVR10- FUNNEL CLOUD NE MOVG NE LSR08 SNOINCR 5/8/21 GRDL WNDSHFT S5 R05RVR50V60+ F4 WND LGT AND VRBL R1 ZRIPE39 SUN DMLY VSB SIL RADAT 93M041054096/2 SB1453E10 CHH RADAT DLAD THN SPOTS IOVC OUN RADAT MISG VSBY 1/2V1 RADAT N/A INTMT R- BA POOR PCPN VRY LGT PTCHY ICE ON RWY CIG RGD GREEN SKY IN LGT FLASHES NE FEW ST 5 HND VRY DRK E-S WND SHFTD GRDLY HLSTO PEA SIZE CI NE LRG BINOVC W HAZY ROTATING CLOUDS NW AC S T ALQDS STNRY BINOVC WALL CLOUD NW R- OCNL R BD OVR RWY PKWND 3462/20 SQUALL LINE NW DRK SW FQT DEADLY LTGICCCCG ALQDS PCPN 120 TOTAL PCPN 1.90 IN 36 MINS OCNL RW- DEBRI ALOFT AB17E21 ACFT MISHAP WND 26V34 T2 SET SML BINOVC DOWNBURST 2 W OF AIRPORT F DVLPG CB ANVIL N OVR LAKE RWU S-SW WR// BLK CLDS ALQDS RCRNR LN TCU W CIG 5V7 VSBY E 1 SEA BREAKING OVER BARRIER ACCAS S-SW TIDAL FLOODING HALF WEATHER STATION ISOLATED DUE TO TIDE WET SNW OBS SECURED BKN V SCT BRKS N SCT V BKN CLR W SFC VSBY 1 1/4 SC BANK NW FROPA HUR COND 1 SET WNDSHFT 40 ROTOR CLDS NW RF8 SCSL W LOWEST PRES 946 CCSL N-E OCNL SW- RDGS OBSCD W-N BD5 KOCTY FEW CUFRA F ALG RIVER T 6NE MOVG NE TIDE MINUS 001 UNCONFIRMED TORNADO 5W MVMT UNKN TIDE PLUS 005 CBMAM 5NW MOVG NE HAZE LYR ALQDS CB ALQDS NOSPL ACSL ALQDS STMG ALQDS BLDG CU W F DSPTG H1 F MOVG IN FM SW CC OVHD CLRG NW FQT LTGICCC IN CB NE-S CLR ALF MOON DMLY VSBL INTMT L- HIR CLDS VSBL SE COMMUNICATION FAILURE FEW STFRA SCUD DSNT ALQDS SWU ALQDS LLWS ALERT AURBO ARPT CLSD SNW RMVL T E LTL MVMT RVRNO ROTATION OBSERVED IN CLOUDS WND GUSTY VIRGA SE-S RAINBOW E TORNADO WENT UP INTO THE CLOUDS RW+ OCNLY RW- LRG CB WITH OVERSHOOTING TOP DSNT NE LSRPSRIR20P DRY WND DIRECTION EST DUE TO BIRD ON WND IRLSR17P WET VANE SANDED CONTRAILS OVC PTLY THN ST ALG RIVER SW-W THIN ICE PELLET LYR ON GRND LUNAR HALO LWR SCUD ALG HILLS E & W APRNT HVY RW S-SW CLDS TPG MTNS NE-SE POWER OUT AT STATION AT 12Z HVY FRST D ALF NMRS GUSTS 35 KTS PST HR LTG NOT OBSVD NO APRNT LTG CLD BNK NW TOT RN 767 F BLO SMT DARK S SKY DARK SW-NW DSPTG CU ALQDS T 2W STNRY PSBL CB DSNT SE HRZN DSNT LTG E AT 2028Z WT 28 SEAS 3-5 HALO AND PARHELION WALL CLOUD DVLPG SW OCTY AC FLOCCUS W-NW LK TEMP 66 TWO WELL DEFINED SC BANDS DSNT NW-NE AND DSNT SW-SE

Well, even when it is epic for @CoastalWx in Weymouth. He gets two 20"+ storm last season, which he has not seen before, and still finds excuses to complain! It's along the same lines as, "the fcst was for 3 ft and I only got 2! WORST FCST EV-A!"