vortex95

The 1961-1990 avg is 10.5 NS per year. The current 30 yr avg 1991-2020 is 14.5. In last 10, is it 18. Lots of factors. 1) 1970-1994 was an unfavorable phase of the AMO for Atlantic TCs. Since 1995, it has been favorable. 2) Many more short-lived TS that used to be not declared or missed now get a name and as late as 1994, an off-season HU was not counted/included. 3) Prior to about 2000, NHC rarely declared/included ST storms. Since that time, they declare them routinely. Also, from 1989 to 1994, there was only one operational GOES satellite for the U.S. and it was positioned at 98W So this meant no real coverage for the eastern Atlantic. Meteosat and polar imagery were available for this part of the Atlantic, but it was not received in real-time for hurricane ops. Another thing that changed is when the next generation GOES became available by 1995, not only did we have two GOES satellite again for better coverage, but also image resolution and frequency from these new satellites increased. And when we got to the next "next" generation of GOES satellites, launched in 2017, the resolution of imagery increased again and the amount of data per hour went up by more than an order of magnitude. For instance, we get a full disk every 10 min now. Prior, it was only every 3 hr. A CONUS every 5 min, It was only every 30 min prior. And we went from 5 satellite channels to 16. This all greatly enhanced our capabilities to track and diagnose TCs in real-time. Purely from a standards/practices and technological POV, you can't compare on a level playing field prior decades to the last 3 or so when it comes to NS counts. And this applies for the entire globe. A true long-term avg, accounting for AMO cycles, needs to be 50-70 years of high quality data.

Every NS so far this year except Edouard has been significantly sheared during much of their existences. Hanna reminds me of Bertha, exposed LLCC w/ one giant "supercell" downshear! I say "supercell" b/c it is not a supercell in a traditional sense, but in the satellite presentation, it sure looks like one. Back-building convection upshear w/ discrete propagation.

Good questions! Yes it would, but when you always go big or max, your fcst success rate for high-end wx event is 100%. That requires zero met skills. Anyone can say that and sound awesome! But ppl do it anyway b/c they know most will only remember the really big events selectivity, which is normal, but they do not realize such a forecaster always goes big, and this puts them up on a pedestal immediately and you get a dedicated fan/follower for life b/c of *one* "successful fcst of a biggie! Yes, "sneaky" wx events are becoming less common, but do not let your guard down, Ask @CoastalWx about Dec 9, 2005 or that early March 2013 snowstorm. And even though it would likely not happen in the NEUS, you still get HUs that unexpectedly go nuts those last 6-12 hr before landfall. Look at Michael in Oct 2018 and Ian in Sep 2022. And such unexpected RI w/ TCs happens at lot for far at sea. HU Nolo S of HI several days ago was fcst to peak at 105 kt. Well, it actually peaked at 135 kt! And Humberto in Sep 2007 near the TX coast in just 24 hr when from next to nothing as a disturbance to a 80 kt HU at landfall. Unexpected tornado outbreaks, esp. on a more local, less synoptically-evident scale, still occur every year. The "surprises" are more often w/ mesoscale-type phenomena these days (inner cores of TCs are mesoscale), but don't rule out weenie snowstorms/synoptic-scale events completely! And interesting combo is mesoscale surprises occurring when a large-scale synoptic event is expected. I can't recall the exact event (@CoastalWx will!) but there was an OES event in NE MA as a large-scale storm was approaching, and Topsfield got like 25" of fluff before any real synoptic snow moved in!

The biggest storm to impact the region in "HALF A YEAR!" LOL. Who says that in regular talk? Saying "6 months" is not dramatic enough, use "year" to make it sound "longer." You see how micromanaged wording is for max effect. This is good news from the Southern Rockies to the Lower MS Valley b/c this sig rain is badly needed b/c of drought conditions. You never hear about that, do you?

I am only a casual sports fan, so verify this for me. It has been said that its all about now the stupid drama OFF the field, like contracts, what this player said, a team potentially moving, etc, than the games themselves!

The way even basic TV services continue to increase in costs has become a major issue, and I have read that networks are pushing to be able to *charge* you for their station access, when it always has been free w/ antennas w/o cable. Yes, that would conflict w/ FCC regulations I think but never understated the power of lobby. The entire TV landscape is becoming a CF. Streaming was supposed to be the panacea, but now it is more expensive than cable w/ regular price increases way ahead of inflation. And for sports fans? Trying to find *where* your local or fav team will be on, not just when, is becoming absurd. Sometimes you do not even know the day before what streaming service/station a particular game will be on! And just wait until the SB becomes PPV!

Did you like the alkaline FOAM INVASION on the beach as the tide came in? I hope you didn't stand in it like reporters sometimes do...gross!

Well, at least so far we don't see the ultimate over/under maps like the NWS has started putting out for snow events. 0-6" or 1-14" for a single point fcst? That is practically useless for most. Yes, I know some want to see the full range possible but overall, it just causes more confusion and has ppl going ????? Put out one specific fcst w/ reasonable prob snow ranges at a given time, and that's it! Adjust as needed as new model data comes in (not every single weenie model every 3 hr or so!). Focused, coherent, consistent messages is important! Don't make things any more complex than they need to be.

One issue is the all storms have the same cookie-cutter hype formula in the eyes of TV stations. Sure, not all OCMs follow that or want to do that, but many are forced to. If one wanted to scale things properly and have something unique to say, they should have said, "such a storm fcst is quite unusual for September", but that takes more than generic knowledge of wx, one needs to know local wx history as well. This is of value b/c it puts things in proper context and perspective, which sadly is sorely lacking these days in media. Not all Nor'easters are alike, but they are treated as such for max hype and ratings. Heaven help us when the next HU takes aim at New England. Mark my words, they will make ZERO difference between the 1938 HU and a MEH HU like Belle in 1976. "Look, the track is *similar* the 1938 HU!" O-kay, but all big HU hits in New England have similar tracks! That doesn't say anything really to the public as to total sensible wx impact It's like after Sandy, every E Coast TC threat was "track similar to Sandy" which in that case was nonsense. Sandy 's track was exceptional. But never let a recent big event go unused for hype for "the next one!"

@weatherwiz posts are solid and make excellent points. Good debate/discussion material! "just because the lead story was on the storm does not mean it was hyped," Wx is almost always the lead story. Even when nothing is going on, the newscast will throw to the wx right away and talk about how sunny it was today, and never not let an excuse happen for them to say "WE'RE TRACKING!" even if it is clouds or a slight change in temp! This is fluff and obvious to the viewer. That time could be used to report on much more important news out there (not like there isn't enough out there). "Cancelling events ultimately is the decision of the person or people responsible for that decision." Correct, but there is cause and effect here. When you hype things to the max, turning the ordinary into the extraordinary, that has real psychological impacts and skews perception big time. Even if you know better and are well-versed in the basics as to wx, say as an EM, this still will sway your objectivity subconsciously, and result in decisions that are not always the best. Also, even if you know better and do not let this influence you, external pressures socially/politically/economically amped up by the hype are a factor and make you do things you otherwise would not do. Do not underestimate the bandwagon logical fallacy. That is, if "everyone" says this or that is true or is going to happen, then it *must* be true or going to happen! This is known social science and human psychology. Also, as mets and wx enthusiasts, we can't let our wx knowledge bias us here. Yes, WE know the deal and how to interpret/read between the lines when a wx event is fcst, scaling and quantifying things correctly, but the vast majority out there have no idea, and given the info overload these days and not knowing what is what from it, you can't really blame the public for being skeptical/distrustful, which leads me to this: "Also, there is a greater trust in weather forecasts these days which factors in as well. " I don't know about that. In some sectors/fields, yes, but from a public POV? I'll never forget what I heard in a grocery line some years ago. A storm was coming, and one person talking to another said, "last time they said it was not going to hit, and it did, so maybe this time it won't b/c they say it will!" What kind of logic is that!? But you see the notions and perceptions out there!

When you say "local TV stations" I assume you just mean those that you get in your viewing areas in CT.? Not every TV market is the same, some are more out of control w/ hype than other and intense (you should see the OKC market!). Not all markets have the same caliber OCMs as to overall met knowledge or the OCM able to do things in a reasonable/balanced way for wx presentation as the news director is breathing down their necks micromanaging and saying hype to the max. Since wx is the #1 reason why ppl watch local news, I don't have to say how intense and competitive it is these days at many TV stations.

That's major problem these days. No accountability. Whether it be legacy media or social media, it always about what's *going to* happen w/ endless speculation, conjecture, and hedging that is over-the-top. Fcst does not work out as planned or not at all?, memory hole it and just move on to the next event or distract w/ other content. It is business model that is more self-serving than doing a service.

Overall, things worked out exactly as forecast. What was atypical is that banded nature of the precip. A classic coastal just steady moves NE and intensifies, and the precip area comes in as a wall w/ a solid WAA blitz, and *then* the precip becomes more banded and showery as the upper trough and comma head moves in. But given this was an outlier event in terms of setup/pattern, none of what happened should have been a surprise. In the end, it delivered big many areas.

Can you image if this was snow w/ those kind of narrow precip maxes/mins? You never would hear the end of it! Meanwhile, @CoastalWx would have likely *actually* said, "this is TOO MUCH in Weymouth! I can't get out of my house!!!""

Despite being such a "warm" storm, it still managed to get that classic SE quad cool/cold air instability CU over the ocean we see so often in the weenie classics! When I first swt a VIS image of the Bliz of 78 as a kid, that cold air CU always stuck in my mind! One of more crazy cold air CU wraps was the Bliz of 97. @CoastalWx PT!