vortex95

More specifically, we want to (MUST) deliver big snows to Weymouth MA, as that is the center of the universe?!

"Trend is your friend?" LOL. You know the more I look back at those wx quips and anecdotes learned growing up, the more I tend to shun them. Mainly b/c "the details are EVERYTHING concerning sensible wx in an area or region!"

CoastalWx: ENJOY THE DIAMOND DUST AT 30,000 FEET!

Well, after such an epic period, it can *only* go down. Regression to the mean. So how is this an issue overall? You lived it, you loved it 1992-93 to 2015-16.

Going from 1981-2010 to 1991-2020 normals raised BOS avg snowfall 7" to 49". That's how lame the snowfall was in the 1980s and how great it was in the new 30-yr period. Such an avg snowfall increase is quite remarkable IMHO, esp. for a coastal location that battles "marine infections" often!

Staying power winters in SNE are much less common than winters w/ great snowstorms. But it's good you at least acknowledge this winter is good or decent. Now compare that to CoastalWx, who seems drowning in the cesspool no matter what happens!

Huh? You get two feet in a single storm and it is called a dream???? Negative Nancy.

500 on UKMET has gone to crap.

Scott likes the 38" bulls-eye 12z GFS over DCA!

The GHG tree devastation CoastalWx always talks about???

The 18z ECMWF AI 500 is *much* better than previous runs, and in-line w/ the other global models. For some reason through 12z, the ECMWF 500 had been MEH and wishy-washy, as if it could not decide what to do. The 500 trough tried to go negative, then just "gave up," and opened up into a positively-tilted POC. Now, it does the "full swing" for the 500 trough, initially positive 270 in the Midwest, and goes full 180 to negative 90 S of New England, w/ that more classic E-W oval shape 500 cut-off we all LUV to see! The 18z GFS puts a 28" max in Delmarva, and given what it shows w/ explosive deepening just E, that is not unreasonable as to how the sfc low evolves. It tries to go OTS at first, but the upper support moving in "yanks" it back big time and you get a 6 hr deepening of 18 mb! That is nuts and you are easily going to see sustained 65 kt sfc winds near the Delmarva in strong cross-isallobaric flow and crazy pcpn rates in the GFS scenario. As for our area, the 925-500 circulations on the global models all seem to show enough closed contours to the NW that at least eastern sections of SNE should do well. Not all up to CoastalWx's standards, but I'll let him rely on "TICKS N" for subsequent runs! LOL. Also, recall the big event last month that showed the 500 cutting way S over NC, and where did that end up? So I wonder about the far S position of 500 trough the models have currently. The storm will be deeply occluded well S of us, so despite being quite tight in pcpn gradient over the Mid-Atlantic, it should expand in size as it pulls ENE. Deep occlusions can be tricky as the precip gets more banded and SNE will not be catching the storm's max deepening for the really wild pcpn rates. That may not matter in the end, but food for thought. This is really a Miller A. Not a Gulf wave, but there is no primary low to redevelop, not in the topographic sense. The center does appear to jump offshore, but it jumps NW, not E or SE! That's more due to more an instant occlusion process than anything else.

CoastalWx thinks that 57" NW of ORF on the 12z GDPS is "KEWL!"

Uh-oh, getting a little snarky. And I am doing volcanic ash advisories, not fire wx!