vortex95

BAF also 84, so CEF seems suspect.

I am surprised there is not more talk about the weekend event. You know how rare these kind of events are in May? And as I said, omega blocks are how you do it this time of year. People like CoastalWx seem to fail to appreciate atypical/rare wx events since it ruins great outdoor weather or the like! In other words, as one example, "if it's not the cold season, I don't want snow!" Or more precisely, "if it's not IMBY, I don't care!" LOL. Grousing all the time seems to be SOP. GFS and RRFS explicitly show accums in nrn NH/NW 4-8" at the higher elevations. Look at the 850 temps valid 12z Sat. That's *cold* and colder than previous runs (as low as -4 C). The 500 low passes directly over the area for max dynamic cooling. Not something to just ignore. Also, and this is huge this time of year, the heaviest precip occurs during the overnight late Fri-early Sat. Every degree counts this time of year for snow. We are talking about say a 0.5 F deg difference in avg temp of the lowest 2000 ft here could mean just a mix of rain/snow or heavy snow w/ rapid accumulation. So being at night given the strong sun angle this time of year (a factor even when thick clouds are present) matters a lot. And given how borderline the temps are, this often results in a very fickle precip type situation. When the precip gets heavier, it goes to all snow, and it lightens up, and goes back to rain. It will be something that needs to be watched very closely in real-time. The "surprise" factor is high here. And you don't need an event like May 9-10, 1977 for the fun 'n games. Look at May 18, 2002. Omega block was much farther N and the 500 cut off center was no where near NEUS. We are also talking later than any other snow event here in the last 60 years, later than 1967, 1977, and 2002.

Scott likes the June Nor'easter the GFS has early next week! Wheel of MISFORTUNE at 500 mb!

But your lawn you value so much will like it!

Misleading. Measurable rain overall entire weekend says nothing about the sensible wx overall. Case in point, if Wxwiz got honkin' tstms every weekend in the summer amidst HHH conditions? Heck, even CoastalWx would welcome that! And Logan is just one point. They act like when it rains it is synoptic coverage by default!

It's going to be that type of event where we may not know until it actually happens, if it does. The fact that the GFS/ECMWF/GDPS/UKMET has shifted the heaviest QPF into NNE, that makes it more likely. Look at the cold 850 temps NW of the 850 low. It's never going to look like a lock, even close to it, for snowfall this time of year. Fun 'n games watching noodles and cats paws on the car windshield. Scott may just travel to NNE for one last look at winter 25-26! LOL. The 00z ECMWF for after the weekend event? Omega "Supreme" does not want to go away. Not 1, not 2, but 3 more cold 500 lows NEUS! And another weekend potential ruined June 6-8 w/ back-to-back coastals.

KNFJ - Milton/Choctaw NOLF FL KNGW - Corpus Christi/Cabaniss NOLF FL KNMT - Tilden/McMullen Target Site TX

It will be worth it for the sneaky S+ risk! Noted the 06z GFS has a max of 4.55" rainfall right over FIT. Seems a lot for such a low track. Where is all the moisture coming from, esp. since there is not much of a sfc low initially? GFS not so OTL it seems b/c the 00z ECMWF has a max of 2.81" in the same exact spot. That kind of pcpn intensity and a cold 850? Things that make you go hmmmm....

00z GFS significantly stronger and tucked back farther W w/ the closed 500 low for May 30. It shows 4-8" parts of nrn NH. What stands out is that the 00z GFS/ICON and the earlier UKMET show substantial QPF, 2-3" in some areas. This is absolutely key for the Scott S+ this time of year (intensity). I like that the GFS is showing more sfc low development just S of the region for more ageostrophic flow.

Look like a strong El Nino pattern we'd see in winter, except it's still not El Nino yet!

"You heard it here first!"

Like how bad it got in the summer of 2016? An extreme drought area showed up in MA! OMG, the world ended! The Quabbin is 84% capacity now. It got as low as 79% in Dec 2016. Clickbait post.

Also, you don't need a honkin' cut-off at 500 to do it in May, at least not directly over New England, nor do you need a strong sfc low. May 18, 2002. This produced what is perhaps the latest accumulating snowfall in ern MA on record. I had .2" in Woburn and this was during the day. You know how hard it is do that this late w/ that sun angle (it still is "felt" though a dense OVC). Also, note it was generally above 540 thk where it snowed. 540 usually does not work so well this late in the season. ALB had 2.2" and max amount was 8" at Prattsvile NY. Weenie snowfall report from this day on this group? I'd like to see them. Omega block once again, but its horizontal axis was not as far S as 1967 and 1977. Of note, 4 days before, CAR had 2.7" for its latest measurable snow on record.

Given the amp'ed pattern and omega block, why not? As I noted earlier, "this is how do you it" this time of year. Look at May 9-10, 1977. Omega block just the same. And it does not have to be as amp'ed to do it either. Enter May 25-26, 1967. Same pattern, yet not as weenie Xtreme. MA/NH summaries for the storm attached. If this occurred today? CoastalWx would give new meaning to his line "VIOLENTLY BEAUTIFUL!"

In other newZZZZZZZZ that Wxwiz will be . So far this May, only 26 tornadoes have been confirmed, and w/ the pitiful pattern for the next week, not that many more should occur. The record for the least amount of tornadoes in May in the U.S. since 1985 is 121 set in 2012. So it appears we will break this record by far! Here are the records for each month. Sure, one can pick any year for a start time, but I chose 1985 since second half of the 80s had a significant spike down for total tornadoes, not unlike 2012-2016, so I am trying to include up/down cycles long-term w/o compromising total count caveats. * Lowest U.S. tornado counts by month (since 1985): January 1986/2003 0 July 2012 37 February 2010 1 August 2014 33 March 2015 11 September 2009 8 April 1987 20 October 1987 1 May 2012 121 November 2009 3 June 1988 63 December 2003 1 So where is this good news in the MSM? This is a significant record. But doesn't fit the "end of days" wx/climate narrative. They are focused on speculation/conjecture instead of *facts*, like this: https://www.ktvq.com/news/montana-ag-network/massive-northeast-montana-dust-storm-raises-fears-of-another-dust-bowl-era What I find interesting is 7 months had their least on record 2009-15. And this occurred w/ tornado detection/documentation being much better than decades prior. So again, good news for society as a whole, but ignored.