vortex95

Yes, I did know about Mt Mansfield, but I was thinking some towers were grandfathered in when new laws were passed? Also, when the WSR-88Ds were being installed, you had push back in some areas thinking these radars were a radiation hazard. I am not kidding! When the WSR-88D were installed, the NWS planned things right. That's why OKX is in over cntrl LI, b/c the former WSR-57 was right in NYC, and the ground clutter was horrendous! Out West, the put a number of radars on top of mountains b/c otherwise they would have been worse than even KCXX for coverage! So I do not think it was the NWS being lazy at all here. They took care to try to place all radars within 50 mi of the largest city in the CWAs for low-level mesocyclone detection. Again, this was the biggest selling point and upgrade from the former radars, so not having 0.5 BREF and VEL is a big deal.

And just like that canceled. However, the KCXX is practically useless for low-level scans in its E quadrant, so you have to wonder. The VT laws not allowing certain towers on hills/mountains, that is what I think prevented the KCXX radar from being placed properly when built 30 years ago. If it is, it is stupid law b/c these radars were installed to protect lives and property, and the biggest selling point when we upgraded to the WSR-88D was tornado detection!

Not too impressive in my part of Silver Spring. Not much LTG/T at all. G45KT leading edge. Rainfall not torrential. The leading edge of the line was just forming a shelf cloud as it passed so it had not quite matured yet, so I would have thought better or more widespread for such an impressive line. CG plot attached. Looks like it weakened as it move into the N and NW of the immediate metro!

Maybe this time we can get it to really go nuts before it gets to the bay high dew point area just E of i-95? I can't tell you how many times Silver Spring misses out b/c of this!

The only difference from an MCS and MCS is the extent, duration, and eccentricity of the very cold cloud top canopy. As for sensible wx, the both can produce high-end svr wx and unreal LTG displays!

Radar looks "meaty." Not only the SQLN but discrete cells forming just ahead. It does not look like it is gusting out yet which is good. I like the CU streaks on the VIS over the DC area.

Like the other day, this area has likely laid down subtle boundaries across nrn VA and cntrl MD, perhaps providing local focus for storms later.

The ITCZ is suppressed by a few deg farther S than normal for this time of year. That is generally a sign things are not good in the MDR.

And one thing that has made its presence known the last few years is the TUTT! And we have them here once again quite apparent in the fcst.

Yes I noted that but the forcing and shear make up for it. Timing not ideal either but we've seen a number of times this year solid tstms after dark. T/Td spreads come down in the evening which can help for svr.

Wx as a hazard is driven into the population relentlessly now, has been that way for decades. It is over-the-top w/ hype and fear-mongering, which is an issue in itself, but the very fact wx is front and center always time now, and still ppl "don't know" or "cry foul"? I find that largely an outdated excuse. Forecasts have improved greatly over that last 30 yr alone, and IMHO they are not the "problem" anymore. It's human nature, which is not going to change. Some ppl simply don't care, some resist anything from authority, some think "it won't happen to me" as noted by @weatherwiz, some get the proper information, but don't prepare or take enough action. There are countless reasons why ppl still lose their lives and are injured, and a large part of that these days has nothing to do w/ the severity/intensity of a given wx event. Improved forecasts and communications have reduced the tolls over time a lot (look at the reduced tolls in the U.S alone since 1900), but we have plateaued here IMHO. We are now "fighting" 3 things. 1) There are just more of us all the time, so more "targets" for wx. 2) The social science part w/ communication, attitudes, and probably the biggest thing now, *wx warning apathy* b/c ppl are sick of constantly in alert/warning status and endless hype. TPTB think too often "well just let's just warn more, and that will ‘fix’ it". As I have said many times, more is not always better, there comes a point of diminishing returns. Quality over quality is the main issue. When *not* to issue warnings/alerts I would argue now is just as important as when it is needed! 3) More and more, I find plain incompetence of those in change resulting in tragedy, like the Hill County TX flash flood last year. Have you read the report on that? Warnings were received, and some at the camps did not heed or take seriously. And this is particularly egregious for a fail b/c that area of TX is the most flash flood prone area in NAMR! You'd think as someone who is in charge there or runs things would know that and realize the risk is much higher than other areas, and NOT mess around when warnings are put out. We like to use the "wx/climate is getting worse" as a scapegoat for all the bad that happens, but there are many others factors present here, but heaven forbid ppl take responsibility for their actions (inactions) or admit they screwed up. Pass the blame to someone/something else. You can't fix problems/issues if you can't address, define, or source them correctly!

No talk of tstm potential today? HRRR shows discrete supercells in VT early this evening. 0-6 km shear 45-50 kt kt, so there you go. Small looped hodographs as well. Surprised SPC does not have MRGL across NNE. It's a decent s/w trof, so no reason why there not should be some svr. CAPE maxes only around 1500, but that's misleading. When the deep layer shear is good, that make a big difference, and you don't need honkin' CAPE values for sold storms. Then a SQLN evolves that sweeps through NH/ME, and then some last min cells psbl for 1-3am far ern MA. I think @CoastalWx's sullied attitude towards convection is a factor here!

And yet how many times do you see ppl come out to walk the dog, jogging, or just causally strolling from the pool from their apartment complex when CGs are near and the thunder is wicked loud? I know this sounds callous, but they are just asking for it. You'd think thunder that loud would galvanize ppl. A mere flash I get not doing it, but the sound wave decibel level alone, you''d think that would do it! Any sudden loud noise typically will make anyone jump. And I am not talking about the typical thunder rumbles/crashes, you know what I mean -- the ones you are never quite ready for even when you know it's coming! Yes, the odds you yourself would get hit are extremely low, but when you give LTG millions of targets daily, that odds become 100% some will be hit.

@CoastalWx gets more impressed w/ a sunset now? My how have the standards have fallen! No problem ragging on convection though! He likes pleasant and quiet wx it seems now!

Looks active Mon-Wed here. HRRR/RRFS suggesting multiple waves of tstms and derecho potential. Seems like there will be one in the OH Valley Tue, and the 12z RRFS is hitting that very hard. Attached is the RRFS valid 00z Wed. Wow. And you have storms firing on the front WNW to ESE right into the DMV area, like a large warm advection wing seen on many derechoes. HRRR through 48 hr seems to have the same idea. Pattern is favorable for derechoes/long-lived bow echoes. The issue typically is though, can an OH Valley derecho make it over the Appalachians intact? It's hard to do. The June 2012 did, but that was the exception. SPC also has the region outlooked for svr DY4 (Wed).