vortex95

@WxWatcher007 post here is reasonable and states facts.

You are being specific as to why a given change occurs, when I was talking in only in general about how it is nothing new for name changes and how they are more common than many think. Your statement is non-sequitur argument. And your statement is selective outrage, as I noted in my initial post was likely occurring/occurred Again, I was only talking in general and giving a bunch of historical examples about location name changes and how many administrations have done it...factual. The implied deriding statement "opus of factuality" is an ad hominem attack/poisoning the well statement. I suggest you avoid committing logical fallacies in your statements if you want to have a reasonable discussion. I said my post was not political, and you turned it into one. I stuck w/ facts..

Yes, the mid and upper levels are a mess and chaotic, You can see upper lows prevalent at 250 on the 18z ECMWF analysis attached and lots of dry air on the WV image attached. Also on the IR image attached, how disheveled it is, lacking in any circular symmetry aloft and the stable stratocumulus W and NW of the system (seeing this in the MDR during the peak of the season?, that is rare). In addition, how small and isolated Dolly is, w/ barely any other deep convection in the entire MDR! When it's bad, it can be *really* bad (for TCs).

Name changes to locations happen more often than many think from all levels of govt and globally. It is nothing new. Idlewild Airport in NYC was changed to J.F.K. in 1963. Manchester Airport was changed to Manchester-Boston Regional Airport in 2006. In 2023, Fort Bragg NC was changed to Fort Liberty and then back to Bragg in 2025. Other military bases had this done in the previous administration and current. Mt McKinley was changed to Denali in 2015, and now is back to Mt McKinley. Barrow AK was changed to Utqiaġvik in 2016. Hot Springs NM changed to Truth or Consequences in 1950. There are many others examples in the country and worldwide Leningrad changed to St Petersburg in 1991, Myanmar was Burma, Belize was British Honduras, Eswatini was Swaziland. So anyone thinking name changes to locations are not allowed/llegal or unique to just the current administration or political reasons for changes did not occur during prior administrations is incorrect and may be displaying bias and/or selective outrage. And the above is not a political statement, it is a factual statement.

Ever notice watches likes this "mysteriously" stop on the ALY CWA borders? Like one can really peg down w-cntrl VT has less of a risk or should not be in the watch in this case? My point is this happens too often to just be coincidence. The atmosphere does not care about geopolitical borders!

In last 20 years or so, NHC often skips the TD stage completely in the Atlantic. I am not sure why. However in the EPAC, they have no problem starting systems as TDs. It's not like TCs work any different between these 2 basins, and 30 kt winds w/ a defined closed sfc circulation and deep convection doesn't care which basin it is in. It is still the same thing! Skipping the TD stage is a disservice IMHO since declaring a system that is indeed a TD gives a full fcst product suite and raises awareness sooner. Is that not of high value? Models have become very good for TC genesis now, and we have ASCAT and SAR winds to see better than ever what is actually there, so no reason to take advantage of this skill. And yes, there is PTC to cover this, but that is only applicable when it is a fcst to be a TC within 72 hr affecting land. Does not apply for Dolly since it is fcst to *not^ be a TC when impacts the Lesser Antilles.

Is post-tropical the same as a tropical wave. which is "open." Does that mean all tropical waves are post-tropical when they first come off Africa? You get into problems here w/ nomenclature.

In last 20 years or so, NHC often skips the TD stage completely in the Atlantic. I am not sure why. However in the EPAC, they have no problem starting systems as TDs. It's not like TCs work any different between these 2 basins, and 30 kt winds w/ a defined closed sfc circulation and deep convection doesn't care which basin it is in. It is still the same thing! Skipping the TD stage is a disservice IMHO since declaring a system that is indeed a TD gives a full fcst product suite and raises awareness sooner. Is that not of high value? Models have become very good for TC genesis now, and we have ASCAT and SAR winds to see better than ever what is actually there, so no reason to take advantage of this skill. And yes, there is PTC to cover this, but that is only applicable when it is a fcst to be a TC within 72 hr affecting land. Does not apply for Dolly since it is fcst to *not^ be a TC when impacts the Lesser Antilles.

Knowing these shortcomings is of high value. Some ppl are riding high on AI modeling as the best thing since sliced bread and they are a panacea.

Some "backup" storms W to E Reston area and actually lifting ENE a bit. DOX radar shows hail cores aloft. CGs increasing last 20 min.

Yes, what does the state *import*. They seem to have left that out. But never let such facts interfere w/ a desired narrative or virtue signaling. "but you can call yourself green because it's a larger share --- and then import the lion's share of your electric from a non-green heavy grid." The fine art of cherry-picking and playing w/ numbers!

Of course. Right, there are about 50 magnitude 4-5 quakes every day. So how does that work? Did CC "target" Nepal for some reason? The Himalayan chain is very prone to quakes due to the Indian Plate collision. And this was only a moderate quake. Law of averages and large numbers say something like this is going to happen from time to time, a concept the MSM and many grifters ignore or lack. So did the AK Lituya Bay quake and landslide megatsunmai in 1958, what caused that? The idea that sfc temp changes cause quakes anything more that frostquakes is ridiculous. Quakes original far down often in superheated or molten areas. And regardless of CC, the topmost layer going down 10s of ft experience massive thermal stress year round unevenly around the globe w/ the change of seasons, and not just from temp, but rain/snow/ice as well. The Moon's pull alone "works over" the Earth's crust constantly, and likely triggers many smaller of the quakes we see every day, along w/ tides, so there is no sensitivity tipping point or whatever!

That's good info. I thought the video looked odd for a typical flash flood. I saw one video where it was all this dark dust/debris at first, like a cloud.

I'd be careful about how solar and wind are pushed as "supplying more of the power" or "taking over." They play w/ numbers and cherry-pick stats for particular hours or days. What matters is in long-term mean and going by any state, region, or even country can be misleading b/c we share electricity across borders. Grids are not isolated in many areas of the world. Also, even though solar/wind is on rise, coal/gas as a whole is also on the rise in many countries. China leads the way in solar, but they also lead the way in new coal plants coming online and coal consumption, avg 2 new plants a week. So yes, solar in increasing but not as a percentage overall. This is where they play w/ numbers, giving absolute power output for solar and leaving out total percentage of use by all energy sources overall for the grids.