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vortex95

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About vortex95

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KDCA
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    MD

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  1. vortex95
  2. vortex95
    One thing for future reference. We have so many models now to chose from, and recently I had been looking at the ICON model. I've been watching it for the past several days, and it has a clear high bias for TC intensity in Dolphin's case. It tends to initialize the storm too low pressure and intensify it to the 880s once near China. That doesn't make much sense given how Dolphin keeps expanding from ERCs and its large eye already. And also it continues to gain latitude. Empirical observations over time show that TCs almost never regain their former intense "glory" after their initial first intense peak (often w/ a pinhole eye). So keep the ICON in mind for this b/c you know how some will pick the model that shows the absolute worst, and run w/ that! I still would like to see how the ICON handles long-tracked systems in other basins.
  3. vortex95
    What were some of the bigger totals you have heard? I had one person tell me 3" in Chevy Chase.
  4. vortex95
    One thing that has been consistent, Well-defined circuation at 700/500 w/ a pool of high PWATs, so that may eventually add to rainfall up and down the E Coast.
  5. vortex95
    HRRR and RRFS are in good agreement swaths up to 4" both SNE and NNE. Given how local media really leaned into drought conditions, this should silence them, EXCEPT BOS prop is still -8.45" for the yea (2" too low from the snow LEQ issues), while PVD/PWM are less than -3" and ORH/much of central and western new England are AOA Y-T-D! And the HRRR/RRFS seem to screw BOS again for sig rain. Gonna be a microdrought area soon! But no real impact since draining downstream and reservoirs to the W are filling up. Local drought is not the same as widespread drought. And short-term drought everywhere is not an issue now, it just long-term drought for deficits. I'm sure everyone's gardens large and small are doing just fine after the wet July, as one example!
  6. vortex95
    Tropical sounding. Lapse rates all below 5.5 C/km, but that's ok b/c the deep layer high dew points make up for it, and just a small amount of heating sets things off. That's why the convective temp is so low, as noted. K-index 38 and PWAT 2.16", so there is your juice! 0-6 km shear 31 kt so close to support supercells. Low-level turning on the hodograph not bad either.
  7. vortex95
    Looks pretty good for gully-washer tstms Sunday. GFS/ECMWF show PWATs over 2" (max 2.5") for the entire region. SW to NE training a good bet in some areas w/ the HRRR showing a 5.93" max just SW of DC. RRFS is similar to the HRRR. just not as high w/ the QPF maxes, but the point is the atmosphere is primed to big rains. A full-latitude, positively-titled trough to our W w/ broad SW flow over us should easily support some big QPF. Showers/sct tstms already in wrn VA and it all slowly moves E during the day, continuing into early Mon AM. Svr risk is marginal. Some supercell structures could be supported for short times. 01/18z ECMWF gives SHRA/TSRA every day through Thu. Nothing stands out for sig svr, just persistent, moist SW cyclonic flow, so lots of tstm activity.
  8. vortex95
    Let's flood out wrn CT again! 00z HRRR.
  9. vortex95
    It doesn't! Imagine that!
  10. vortex95
    You have to ask yourself, "why wouldn't the air dry out AM to PM on a sunny day? " "Thankfully" for what? Diurnal temp range the the sun coming up??? Was the AM moisture causing "problems? Fluff post (the X link)!
  11. vortex95
  12. vortex95
    I still think it is funny that some local TV media will fcst highs something like 77-84, and call it "hot." Gotta push that heat all the time!
  13. vortex95
    @CoastalWx all excited w/ the leaves changing already I bet! Now it is just the "540 thickness line watch" for first time!
  14. vortex95 started following Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
  15. vortex95
    It has at least 6 days before landfall. so a lot of time to form a giant eye.
  16. vortex95
    Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) products that give very detailed surface wind profiles for TCs. Click on the storm you want and then "profile plots" for the max winds in each quadrant and RMW text output, among other things. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/socd/mecb/sar/sarwinds_tropical.php
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