vortex95

Upslope not nearly as big factor this time of year, simply b/c low-level winds from the SE, E, or NE are not as strong, and fetch is much less. Ever notice summer low pressure areas are smaller than the cool season counterparts? Well, there is reason for that and thus you can't treat things synoptically all the same in the summer. Convection plays a much larger role in the summer, so that messed w/ things are well. Swaths from training regardless of topography.

I did not want to bring up the "feels like" temp, as that is out of control as to abuse, but it can be of use b/c "the door swings both ways!" Once you get below 57 or 58 dew point, the heat index is actually lower than the air temp! I would bet not many mets know or actively realize this. I did not know until about 10 years ago! I've spoken to ppl deployed in the Middle East, they can get perspective! After in that sauna for a few months, coming home, 95 feels great! Acclimation I think is underrated. When I moved to DC, it took me a few summers to get used to the more 90 temps and the more persistent high dew point, which get into the upper 70s more common here. By my 3rd summer, I not longer noticed it. I adapted. However, the flip side is that I am not as tolerant to cold. This past winter was by far the coldest here since I moved here, and I noticed! I think from the general public POV, they think MT is "cold." Most have zero idea what continental climate is like, and MT is the best state for temp swings in the CONUS. It is the only state in the Lower 48 that has had sig snow at lower elevations (I am taking Great Falls proper) in August (happened in 1992). It's even worse for AK. Ppl are shocked to learn AK highest temps is 100 F, and that they get a lot tstms (all squeezed into J-J-A). Some locations get 30 days w/ thunder, more than a lot of New England! And of course, tornadoes. We had that one earlier this month, but I would bet good $$ there are 3-5 tornado in AK each year, just it is so large and sparsely populated, it precludes detection.

EF0 passes close to ineedsnow house will make it EPIC!

W/ that sat imagery I bet it was stronger than 125 kt. Pinhole eyes often suggest higher, but Dvorak has nothing to account for eye diameters or tight systems, esp. when the inner core is tiny. We generally underestimate the most intense TCs and small TCs from satellite estimate.

More ern NY currently!

04z HRRR rides a 996 mb low into cntrl CT (makes "landfall") later this morning. This is how the BDL F4 occurred on 10/3/1979. Sfc low from S of LI came up from the S and moving right over cntrl CT. Did WxWiz even get a hint of this before going to bed? I know CoastalWx did not, and now be like, "HUH????, where did this come from?! I was focused on all the rain!" Sooo...has anyone looked at the svr wx parameters? They are sneaky impressive. From 04z HRRR: 1) CAPE values NE of the sfc (meso?) low. 500-1000. That's more than enough when low-level shear is solid (see below). 2) 0-3 km CAPE - areas of 200+ CT/RI border to srn NH - again, more than enough (75 or more is good). 3) Now this is where it gets interesting. 0-1 km SRH NE of sfc low, large area of 200 w/ a max of 447 at 17z over NW RI! That is crazy and no reason this is spurious given the set up and evolution here. 4) SCP and SIGTOR area are there. Not honkin' but that's due to low CAPE largely. Low CAPE/high shear can do some amazing things! 4) Sim radar shows discrete cells in an arcing line NE of the sfc low. NE of sfc lows (synoptic, meso, or tropical) are prime areas for spinners. You have low CAPE in the column, but its more than enough for stout convective updrafts, 0-3 km CAPE is high so there is your low-level vortex stretching, and 0-1 km SRH is excellent. SPC 06z outlook has gen tstms only for the NE. I don't know about that. And yes, the small low pressure is already there off the NJ coast (radar attached).

996 mb for a coastal low is quite impressive for July here. And it's tight little sucker! Going see some big rain from this esp. since CAPE are 500-1000 over srn New England for most of the event. Those are ideal values for max rainfall rates and warm rain processes.

Things turned out close to what the models where showing, at least for the DC area Plenty of wind reports, some hail, and one tor so far. Odd, a lack of svr reports in the RIC area and much of cntrl VA, where the highest tor probs were initially. I had a quick 1.00" even of rain (WxU site just up the street) and it got quite windy, but no damage in my immediate area. Kind of avg for a storm.

Radar loop from 2000 to 2230z here. You had a line w/ the pre-frontal trof moving SE and isolated storms moving NE ahead of it, and some were supercells, esp. those one just E of the bay. One clearly split and one produced the tor in Trappe.

What about the warm front position!!!! You were all over that and dogmatic last event! LOL.

Or in "Team America: World Police!" F-yeah!!!!

"Life-threatening" -- most inclement wx is life-threatening in some way. Why not just "dangerous?" That is all-inclusive for being injured and a fatality. Yet we see "extremely dangerous and life-threatening" in the same line en masse now. Superfluous wording and redundant. More is not always better.

Something that *really* stands out for this event and why I think 10"+ is likely in some spots. Let's see if @CoastalWx and @WxWiz know this excessive rainfall rule of thumb! CAPE for a nor'easter is outstanding, esp. for New England. The entire time for much of cntrl and srn New England, the values are 500-1000. These are *ideal* values for maxing rainfall rates and droplet collision/coalescence for high rainfall efficiency. Warm rain process rule. The CAPE provides additional lift on top of the synoptic-scale lift, but it is not too strong as to push a lot of drops above the freezing layer or at least above -40 C where spontaneous freezing occurs. So look out! Also, w/ CAPE present, it is going to be windier, esp. inland, b/c of good mixing of the BL. And likely a lot tstm activity for a Nor'easter. This happened on Oct 23-24, 2014. A lot of tstms and I recall it was windy from the NE even before the rain moved in b/c BL mixing was excellent. Up to 6" of rain from this event (does CoastalWx recall it?).

Let's take one model and run w/ that. To show point totals when there is a lot of model disagreement as to how much and where is foolish. One should be drawing their own map manually and show something like 1-3" general and highlight heavier areas possible and say up to 5-6". That is most reasonable at this time. Like they learned nothing from the last event?

Meteotsunami or seiche. Speed of storms is often key, but local bay/inlets can have odd things happen even w/o fast moving storms.