vortex95

Another DY4-8 SPC Outlook at 2130z starting 11/16 https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2026/scn26-95_Day4-8_SWOD.pdf

@weatherwiz and @ineedsnow all excited? DY4-8 SPC outlook will be update 2x a day soon! https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2026/scn26-95_Day4-8_SWOD.pdf

Yes they can, but we have yet to see and epic E Coast snow winter overall w/ such strong El Nino. I am talking the NEUS. Mid-Atlantic one Miller A and they get double the normal snowfall! The cold in place prior to the Feb blockbuster was solid. So it can happen, just don't expect a long persevere snowfall like @CoastalWx wants!

One period in one month does not make a winter. You'll see ppl just focus on those select periods they got right, when what matters is the overall avg for the entire winter! "97-98 had a November winter event." Ok....many Novs do, your point? Dec 23, 1997 there was a surprise 1-2 footer in SNE. A winter event. Did that change anything in the mean for temp in the CONUS overall that winter? No. I had 42,6" that winter in Woburn. That's 15" below avg. I did have 6.4" in Nov which is above avg. But again, slicing and ice down short periods is cherry-picking. For Woburn,for the 4 very strong El Nino prior, one was close to avg snowfall (1982-83), and the other three below. That does not make a "big" winter in the @CoastalWx context!

Here are the CPC temp forecasts for winters 2013-14 to 2024-25 (left) and on the right as to what actually happened. This is not targeting CPC here, just showing how long-range forecasts are generally not good. There is a distinct warm bias for the winter forecasts in this particular case set.

Also, regarding my previous post, when El Nino is this strong, mild air *rules* across most of the Lower 48 for most of the winter. The polar vortex is secondary. All other very strong El Ninos have had very mild conditions for the winter in the Lower 48. The only cold air shots, and they are not too intense and are brief, are in the Northeast. Why not just say that b/c you hare wx history and analogs to support your fcst. That is the most logical course and has a virtually 100% success rate given past event. Any more is just pure speculation and content to just draw out talk about the wx b/c it gets the ratings.

This is one of the worst interviews I have ever seen. All I can say, the two ppl are both TOOLS in the own way. The Fox person is classic drama-hound w/ a forced urgent tone and keeps poking the person interview for certainties in the forecast ("meteorologists and climatologists aren't are quite sure what to make of it!" -- ???, just made up nonsense to set the drama tone). The person interviewed (Cohen) talks in vague and waffle terms, stating "anything is possible" and just goes back in forth w/ content that does not say anything that is of real practical value. It's all over the place, To the avg person, they get nothing out of this. Just hear stuff that's over their heads b/c of the meteorology complexity and nothing concrete, just a lot of "could happens" and "what ifs." Useless segment. Merely content to fill air time and of course its wx, so have to push that no matter what. The monetization of wx is out of control and it ruining the science. This obsession w/ advanced meteorology for public consumption is ridiculous. Let's sound techy to impress and feign like it is important. The avg person does not care, they just want the forecast and concise, reasonable statements, not all the drama, hedging and vagueness! Also, the polar vortex is pushed as some scary phenomena. It is *normal* feature of the polar regions, and yes, it does modulate cold air outbreaks into the CONUS and elsewhere in the world, but they just can't leave it at that. Just b/c the media says this meteorological term over and over and talks about it w/ all the drama, does *not* physically make it any more or less than it is! Once again, they turn the ordinary into the extraordinary merely for content and hype. Deplorable. Don't get me wrong, such a discussion like this ok, but it is made for meteorology circles b/c it is complex subject. Not being haughty or a snob, just I understand the audience here. Unlike ppl on this group, the vast majority don't give a hoot about such complex wx things. And for those who are interested, I am going to call out such an interview segment for it saying a lot w/o anything much of anything.

Be more specific. how to piss off @CoastalWx!

It seems the disturbance NE of Arnab (90B) has quite the organization and IMHO is a minimal TS as it is about to make landfall as I type this. 3 microwave passes since 27/2000z clearly show a well-defined center w/ impressive curved banding (attached). Nascent CDO w/ cloud tops as cold as -87 C and a fairly quick NW motion would support minimal TS-force winds. Radar shows a well-defined system at landfall. Look a the amended 03z TWO update from JTWC. See below. "Dissipated?" I find that disingenuous and a lie. Yes, I know JTWC is not the RSMC and IMD takes care of it, but it just goes to show the issues outside NHC's AOR w/ "shorties" not counted still these days. And sometimes they are not just weaksystems these shorties! Either way, locally there would be sig impacts where 90B makes landfall. Is that not important? If this was NHC AOR, they would have declared it a TC, and I would agree 100%. It is what it is! ABIO10 PGTW 280300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN REISSUED/280300Z-281800ZOCT2026// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280152ZOCT2026// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 28OCT26 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (ARNAB) WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 81.6E, APPROXIMATELY 543 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 280300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 85.1E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).// NNNN

From Scott's fav wx movie, CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF MEATBALLS!

The very worst for @CoastalWx is when it is 39 F and rain all day!

Yes, I never liked CLR BLO 120. The reason for this is that in the vicinity of airports. clouds above 12,000 ft are irrelevant for take off and landing. ASOS was primarily designed for aviation, so you lost some things when it went from manual obs to ASOS. Like minutes of sunshine (report in the additive data once a day) and of course, snowfall/depth/LEQ on the ground at many first order climate sites. Cloud groups L-M-H (8/xxx) were lost as well. And no distinction between showery and synoptic pcpn anymore. And KEWL remarks like DRFTNG SNW, LTG types, and TORNADO/FUNNEL CLOUD, plus all shorts of unique remarks to describe a wx situation. I made a list back in the late 80s for many of them (I'll post it when I get it from my archives at home). Some I can recall. MOON DMLY VSBL (not something @CoastalWx likes b/c that mean diamond dust at 30,000 ft)! FQT LTG IN CB ACRFT MISHAP (accident at airport) DARK NW SUN DOG WET SNW HLSTO 3 INCH (I always liked that better than the METAR code that would just say "GR 3")! And when LTG was reported, they could actually see it at the airport. Now, many sites report LTG based on CG strikes with a range. LTG DSNT report means 10-30 mi away, but says nothing if anything was seen! TS reported when LTG is within 5 mi, but that does not mean thunder is actually heard at the location. Sure, many times, if a CG is 5 mi away, you will hear thunder, but not always due to atmospheric conditions. And how ASOS can not distinguish HZ from FU and DU . That is significant! An items lost due to METAR code? Svr tstm. If hail 1" or more was falling or a G50 kt or more. The code would be T+ in the SA code. Nothing like that exists for METAR format. Getting back to the CLR BLO 120. That is significant for nowcasting. Even a thin layer of high clouds coming in on a night w/ good rad cooling, that puts the breaks on it from realized its true bottom out potential. And just cloudy days. You can have entire day high OVC at 25k, and the ASOS would never know there were any clouds! Some AWOS now do have ceilometers that go above 12k ft.

This is why the green clean energy inititiave is flawed, as in trying to push everything electric and wind/solar. Where are the decreased costs promised from wind/solar? States like MA claim to be more green energy and yet look what is happening. All the green energy should help keep electric costs down despite higher oil prices, but do you see that happening? We keep being told it will come down, but it doesn't So having other sources available such as NG, coal, diesel, and even all the way back to wood are good to have. Why should the population be constrained to one type energy (electric), which is being pushed by certain powers. Having options allows one to budget better and reduces personal costs. Also, it prevents a single point of failure, like when the power goes out. You still have NG, coal, diesel, and wood as options to help get by. In the end, that's what matters to people. Virtual signaling about "saving the planet" goes out the window when you are struggling to pay bills to heat your home. When push comes to shove to provide the absolute basics for you and your family, this will override anything else. So stock up on wood to alleviate high energy costs!

That event was cool. Couldn't do it BOS S for the Oct 2011 monster, but a kinda MEH system made for the biggest snowstorm and snowfall in Oct for many locations ern MA and RI. But then @CoastalWx immediately thought of what happened after Oct 2011 for the winter...worst ev-A! So his excitement was quickly quelled!

Usually, BDFs are not good tstms producers, at least for eastern sections. Once they get to the CT Valley, things do much better.