vortex95
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FWIW, overall the CG counts has not been that crazy so far. So in that regard, not much to "miss!" Cells themselves have not been that impressive structurally as a whole as well. Misery loves company! Maybe we can pull it off later as stronger forcing comes in.
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Ugh. What a waste of awesome CAPE if it can't be realized. I do not like the mid-level anvil precip to our W. How often do sig storms fire when that is already in place?
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The storm is more sheared today than ydy, yet it is stronger, likely b/c the LLCC is larger, more coherent/tight. Ydy, it appeared we had more than one LLCC. The winds in sheared systems can be tricky, and I wonder how strong NHC would have Bertha if it was far at set and no recon. Probably no more than 40 kt. Just from empirical obs alone, I think sheared systems in the absence of recon are often underestimated Given the large LLCC, it may well stay intact all the way to GLS. However, look at the 06z ECMWF 925 vs. 500 RH/streamlines fcst hr 60. Quite a disconnect from NE shear! Probably just a low-level swirl w/ small bursts of convection.
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Yes, I do not like to see a big cluster of storms S of an area of interest. It seems more often than not, that means the area to the N is ripped off!
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I.m little concerned about the immediate DC area. Seems like the "split" is already evident on radar w/ the large area near RIC and the isolated cells along the PA border. A lot of clouds now before we get any solid storm development! What the 15z HRRR fcst for 19z for the DC metro is *way* off. Storm cluster fcst vs. zip! That being said, isolated discrete storms are starting develop now in the area, so that's what was shown last night and then big line in the evening is still fcst. So it may yet work out? Only got a svr box, no tor box, despite 5% tor probs. Usually w/ 5% tor probs we get a tor box. Perhaps SPC did that b/c they noted what I pointed out above (too much cloud cover in the risk area)?
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I'm not sure there will be much left to track after about 60-72 hr as the entire circulation gets sheared apart. HAFS-A/B do have any coherent sfc center by 72 hr. You can see the deformation pulling it apart well at 850, 700, and 500 on the ECMWF RH/streamline fields. NHC showing a trackable center from their 03z advisory at 96 and 120 hr seems optimistic IMHO.
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00z HRRR and esp. RRFS go big w/ the QPF Tue and Wed. Sern NY bulls-eye again! Tor risk wrn sections today and entire area in MRGL Wed. Quite the 500 trough for July to impact the region and it just doesn't quickly swing through. Train echo tstms likely. And hardly any talk here? Wxwiz, I am disappointed! CoastalWx probably "MEH!" And work more on this drought. You'd think its so bad from the MSM when VT has no drought, much of NH nothing, and the same for ME. Since the start of the year, the DSCI has dropped from 137 to 70 for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, but do you ever hear about that? "Oh, but ern MA is in severe drought!" Local drought is not the same as widespread drought.
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Wow. You get the classic "discrete cells ahead of line" which you always have to watch closely for tor potential, then big clusters w/ training psbl and FF threat. And now much of the DMV could do well on Wed as the front gets hung up w/ more training and FF threat. The 00z HRRR is really big for QPF. 48 hr totals 5" max just NW of DC and a whopping nearly 12" max near WAL! Well, we do need the rain. 00z RRFS is very similar to the HRRR for big QPF w/ the 5" max just S of DC and an 11" max near WAL. Winds aloft look better than the last event for svr wx. I esp. like the 250 mb speed max approaching late in the afternoon, so discrete supercells should sustain better. Tor threat is there but not high-end.
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I *never* get sick of +CGs, even when they do not strike close. One time, I had one strike about 6 mi from me about 1 hr before sunset, and even though I did not see the bolt, the flash was unusually bright and "encompassing" (meaning it was bright all around me, not a flash in the distance) for the daylight hours, and I go, "ooo, there is going to be big thunder." And I counted, 30 sec later, a really deep THUD! The acoustics can be really bizarre!
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Or the Ivan tor day in Sep 2004? What, like 40 tors in VA alone, and many clustered right up to the MD/VA border just W of DC! I think that day is the only SPC MDT ever issued for a TC tor event. There were so many tors in VA that day, that if you look at a map for the CONUS showing which month tors are most common for each state, VA says "September" -- all b/c of that Ivan tor day! It shows how a single outlier event can skew climo big time.
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I noticed that this year. 45% for wind is being issued more often E of the Mississippi. It can be misleading, esp. when doing stats over time for trends. Our standards are practices change, and the fcst science advances. It reminds me of when MRGL and ENH was added. You get more of a "bulls-eye effect" now when you have a sig svr wx outbreak fcst, but it does not mean things are more amp'ed or intense for sensible wx, just we can just be more precise w/ outlooks given better modelling and knowledge.
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One thing w/ the WBZ, if you can get a stout supercell w/ intense mid-level meso, the WBZ means little b/c hailstones get so large and fall so fast, little melting occurs upon their final descent. Also, such large, cold ice masses actually can continue to grow upon their final descent since drops are freezing upon contact of the mass. The best is when directional shear is huge. It really strings out of hodograph and increases the residence time in the HGZ. You get more "twisty" updraft spirals. It's one reason why hail is so common in the Front Range, lee troughing promotes backed low-level winds and you have W or NW flow at 500, so at times literally 180 deg turning sfc-500! Also, don't need very strong winds. You can have SE winds at 20 kt at the sfc, and 20 kt out o the NW at 500,, that equates to 40 kt deep layer shear, and you have enough for supercells despite winds aloft not standing out.
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From a satellite presentation, I agree w/ the NHC upgrade to TS at 00z, sheared as it may be. Look at the last VIS, it seems one LLCC is moving farther away from the convection to the N, and it looks like there may be another LLCC to its WSW that is drifting SSW. This is common for broad, nascent TCs -- more than one LLCC. For a sheared system, I am surprised the convection on the downshear side is not more intense. It has struggled to get to -75 C for cloud tops. Often, sheared TCs have much colder convective tops (<-90 C) than even a mature hurricane as wind shear actually promotes more intense convection from dry air mid-level and better lapse rates hence stronger tstm updrafts. Not the best looking TC on sat or radar, but they come in all sorts of types. A spectrum, not one-size-fits-all! Such a formatiom outside the MDR/deep tropics) is consistent for a strong El Nino year.
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This is a case where the shear is not from a trough, but the E side of a strong upper-level ridge. In these cases, the TC can be forced to the S, which is a motion that TCs most often do not respond to well. Convection gets sheared away in short order and you are left w/ an exposed LLCC the moves more w/ the low-level flow.
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It became more warm core faster than expected. 500 analysis 18z NAM shows warm core at 500 w/ temps to -2 C (attached). HRRR the other day showed the gradual organization well and the broad skeletal structure w/ the banding. See radar loop attached. Being so broad and dry air issues, it likely going to have problem tightening up, and by 36 hr, the ECWMF shows the 500 low getting sheared apart from deformation. GFS does not show this nearly as much, but I trust the ECMWF more there. Also the GDPS is similar to the ECMWF. The LLCC looks to eventually accelerates W after its gets to the LA cost, which is generally not good (too much shear) for a weak system in in tropical easterly flow. Sharp asymmetry fcst w/ all the heavy rain sheared to the S of the LLCC. Just an empirical observation over time, NHC seems to intensity too quickly nascent systems that are broad and not in the best overall environment In the first advisory ydy at 15z, they had it a 35 kt TS by 12z today. Second advisory 35 kt TS by 18z today.
