vortex95

@ineedsnowand @CoastalWx immediately rushed to see what *exactly* happened in SNE in 2000-01 winter!

When we get the ultimate 'cane here, this will be the most popular video by far! @CoastalWx be like, "how can this happen?!"

Do you mean "largest TC tornado outbreak in the states history? B/c you have non-TC events like this. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/110416_rpts.html I count 14 NC tors from the 2020 Isaias.

Very strong El Nino does not guarantee a big Atlantic rebound TC season the next. 1983 is the lowest ACE season in the satellite era. 1992 was sig below avg ACE (76) and had only one major HU. Yes, that was Andrew, but one high-impact landfall does not change the overall Atlantic season as to historical avg. Outside of very strong El Nino? 1977 was weak El Nino and ACE of 25 - the 2nd lowest ACE in the satellite era. 1978 ACE (neutral ENSO) was 63. 2013 ACE was only 36 (neutral ENSO) and 2014 ACE (weak El Nino) was 67. Also, very strong El Nino is not always followed by La Nina. 1991 very strong El Nino was followed by weak El Nino 1992. Finally, El Nino and La Nina are not just polar opposites due to the non-linear responses of the ocean. And there are no less than a dozen other atmospheric oscillations going on around the globe at the same time, all interacting and in various states.

What to see how much of an outlier 2004 and 2005 were for major HU totals and those that had a CONUS landfall as a major? 3 of 32 hurricanes in the Atlantic had a U.S. major landfall 1995-2003, 7 of 13 2004-2005, and 0 of 29 from 2006-2016. This underscores how recency bias is something not to fall prey to. Recall how after the 2004-05 season, it was widely promoted, "this is the new normal an how it going to be going forward." And then you got the longest major hurricane CONUS landfall gap on record (11.5 years). Did you hear this good news ever promoted in the MSM? Sure, since 2017 it has been very active, but that is normal as well in the big pix. Up and down TC cycles occur in every permutation possible over the long-term. Point being is that using short-term snapshots in wx as climatological avg/mean/changes is severely flawed and should not be done. The cognitive shortcomings present in human psyche are unfortunately often taken advantage of to skew reality. We can all relate to this at one time or another!

Tell @ineedsnow that!

Forget 38 cane, Nov 1950! That would be *way* worse net-net b/c of the areal coverage of the big winds. And we'd less even less prepared b/c ppl do not react as much to storms w/o a name on it or if it is not snow.

Not bad for Oct. @weatherwiz

Newly formed Trudy is fcst to become quite intense. Trudy as name rang a bell for me since this was also an intense Oct hurricane (135 kt) in 1990. and hung around for two weeks. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_Pacific_hurricane_season#Hurricane_Trudy Of the top 5 EPAC ACE prior to 2026, 1990 is #4 and that was a neutral ENSO year. In fact, of this top 5, only 2015 was very strong El Nino.

"Squashed spider!"

Yes, also recency bias - the cognitive shortcut that what has happening now or very recently has more significance/importance than what was prior. When you look at wx history and all regions of the world, you can find numerous focused regional wild periods for wx. Just for U.S. HUs? New England had 5 hurricane landfalls 1938-1960, and since 1991, none. People back then in the region would be like, "what the heck is going on?" and people now in the same region would be like "what's a hurricane?" FL is nothing new to wild periods: Hit by 5 category 4 hurricanes 1945-1950, 12 hurricanes 1941-50 w/ 6 major, and a record 13 landfalling hurricanes 1871-80. Or more general: From 1926-1969, 14 category 4/5 hurricanes had U.S. landfalls. For the period 1970-2016, only 4 category 4/5 hurricanes had U.S. landfalls. The 14 yr period 2006-19 had 3 CONUS major hurricane landfalls. This is the least for such a period since 1900. The most is 13 from 1915-28. In June 1886, 3 hurricanes made landfall in the U.S. No other June has had more than 1. The last June CONUS hurricane landfall was in 1986. This is the longest stretch w/o a June CONUS landfall on record.

Next two systems decent rains for NNE. I don't want hear it! And you should see your first flakes!

The 2020 Isaias produced the most tors from a TC that tracked along the E Coast and stayed E of the Appalachians -- 39. And DE has its longest-tracked tor on record at 36 mi. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/200803_rpts.html https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/200804_rpts.html

I was looking back at SAR imagery for Isaias. Look at the difference in structure only 12 hr apart!