vortex95

Will this convince WxWiz that an EML is not required for SIGTOR? Scott still be like "MEH!" I have a hard time believing that something solid will not occur w/ those dynamics in place in mid-June in the region.

NNE looks good for short bow segments and supercells today. What is interesting is 2-5am Mon in eastern SNE. Nice theta-e noses at 925 and 850 and wind fields 700 and below ramp up nicely just ahead of the well-defined trough axis. 00z RRFS and to a lesser extent HRRR show decent tstms firing ern MA and RI. LTG density is solid. So maybe CoastalWx can get shaken out of bed w/ a +CG super crash! LOL.

Yes. I see that. Noted on the 00z ECMWF, very strong WAA occurs on Thu during the day with the passage of the WF (that's classic for a big tor day). Nice nose of above avg 850 temp 00z 6/19 (attached). Winds at 500 as high at 95 kt (attached) and 300 winds as high as 115 kt? Tell me something big can *not* happen w/ these kind of wind anomalies and such a strong sfc low in srn Quebec in June! Derecho instead of Scott spinners here perhaps. Looks better to SW of the region. Since set ups like this are rare here, we don't know the full range of possibilities. We may be surprised.

I'm originally from just NW of BOS, and the biggest thing I recall locally from that 6/1/11 was the nasty +CGs coming out of the supercell anvils overhead. The storm cores were 30 mi to my W. Don't see that too often in New England! Then another supercell just missed me in the evening that crushed BOS. Here is video (not mine) taken about 10 mi to my N in Lowell MA. This is telltale supercell lightning. Very frequent, quick flickering pulses in the upper part of the CB. You can actually see short cloud-to-cloud bolts at times, known in chaser slang as, "anvil zits!"

June 1, 2011 was the New England tor event w/ the EF3 Springfield-Monson MA. This is the last high-end tor event for New England, About every 10-15 years New England gets a high-end tor event, so one could say, "they're due!"

When I posted, I thought of it this way, in a overall synoptic sense, you don't track a 990 mb or deeper sfc low across southern Ontario/Quebec this time of year, and *not* have something big happen convectively! What that is exactly is and where? Way too early, but all the main pieces are there, so that's the first step. Work from there. What is really cool now is that modelling and knowledge have come to the point we now can reasonably see high-end/record-setting events potential well in advance. The first time I really took l note of this was a couple days before the Oct 29-30, 2011 snowstorm. I noticed how cold the short-range ensembles were showing the 850 mb temps, and I said, "this is going to be epic/really bad," and look what happened. Then a year later, we saw what the ECMWF was doing w/ Sandy (even before the system was named Sandy!) 9 days out, and again, look what happened! Now we had advanced enough to see high-end svr convective potential days 4-8. From a wx passion standpoint, it's really cool to know such things in advance now. Growing up, I recall the uncertainty factor seemed always so high, and so many surprises (snowstorms over-performing was a biggie). And from a societal POV, us knowing ahead of time is a tremendous benefit so we can prepare for them and mitigate impacts.

SPC DY6 has SVR outlooked OH Valley-DCA-NYC? Time for WxWiz to starting getting ready. He been waiting for something like this for so long! And CoastalWx can stop saying "SNE SUCKS for convection!" LOL. From pattern recognition, I am very impressed, and it takes a *lot* to impress me for svr these days. An unusually strong sfc low for mid June is fcst (below 990 mb) to track across southern Ontario and Quebec. 00z GFS and ECMWF same idea on 6/18 for wind fields -- GFS a bit stronger than the ECMWF, but does not matter, they are still through the roof for this time of year. GFS 120 kt 250, 95 kt 500, 75 kt 700, 65 kt 850 and 925 in New England this time of year w/ available CAPE this time of year? Ho-ly ( )!!! Actually, w/ these kind of wind fields, you don't need more than say 2000-2500 CAPE for sigtor. Anywhere from the OH Valley-Mid Atlantic-Northeast may be in for a sig tor event! I don't have to quote the big tor outbreak for our region, but just mention July 10, 1989, and WxWiz will faint! FYI, winds of 65 kt at 850 existed for the ORH 1953 event. For the July 10. 1989 event, the sfc low that tracked across NNE was "only" 998 mb. Not overstating things here for potential at all. But of course, it's all in the details. *But* again, SPC outlooking SVR this part of the country on DY6 this time of year? That says something! You don't get that w/o a synoptically-evident set up.

The DY6 SPC outlook? It is definitely warranted. An unusually strong sfc low for mid June is fcst (below 990 mb) to track across southern Ontario and Quebec. Wind fields are clearly high end for this time of year. GFS and ECMWF same idea on 6/18 -- 70 kt 500, 60 kt 700, 50 kt 850, 40 kt 925 over Mid-Atlantic. That means business and this time of year w/ higher CAPE? Anywhere from the OH Valley-Mid Atlantic-Northeast may be in for a sig tor event June 23, 1944 comes to mind so does June 8-9. 1953. Also July 10, 1989 (New England's largest single day tornado outbreak for number of tornadoes). Derecho not out of the question. Svr mode is up in the air at this range. Not overstating things here for potential at all. But of course, it's all in the details. *But* SPC outlooking SVR this part of the country on DY6 this time of year? That says something! You don't get that w/o a synoptically-evident set up!

And moist adiabatic lapse rates to 550 mb...EEECH!!

So I did a little easy "experiment." Using CoCoRaHS sites, I got Y-T-D totals for the 3 sites closest to Logan. Chelsea, Somerville, and Nahant. Chelsea - 15.26" Somerville - 12.72" Nahant - 12.55" And BOS? 10.79" Again, taking climate information at face value has its issues. The excuse here? "Oh, we have to use it b/c it is official!" So? Just b/c it is official does not mean it is correct/right. That's the appeal to authority logical fallacy. Equipment/standards/practices are not perfect, so calling such out is not wrong.

A couple things to note. The readings were taken in the city before Logan was built, so that's one factor. Prior to 1980, the temps were taken tucked back a bit near the WSFO, and since, the sensors have been located in the middle of the runways solidly surrounded 3 sides by water. This is going to result in upward trend in dews long-term. Another factor, going to from glass to digital thermometers. Digital can record instantaneous quick temp/dew changes. ASOS is supposed to do 5-min avg to mitigate this. It is known that digital temps run a bit warm compared to glass thermometers overall. Not sure about dews, but it is something to consider. ASOS is considered accurate as long as the temp sensor is within +- 2 F. Not sure about its dew sensors, but yet another thing to consider. A margin of error here would suggest that the approx 1 F dew rise since 1995 when the ASOS was installed at BOS can not be considered statistically significant. How does the increasing heat island effect over time impact BOS dews? As you can see, there are a number of non-meteorological factors that have zero to do w/ climate or its changes that can and do give false trends either way. You can't just simply take climate records over long period of time at face value due to factors mentioned above. So I would use caution w/ small trends over many decades and longer.

The price he pays for having nearly 177k posts! I didn't make ACATT.

The surging satellite appearance of the storms Thu reminded me of a tropical squall line. Mesoscale factors, such as the cool pool, are the driving force due to lack of winds aloft/deep layer wind shear.

Wxwiiz mad he missed this??? CoastalWx proby just MEH! LOL. Look what happened Thu just over the border in Pauling NY. Hail up to 2" in diameter. https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1E8jBs32e1/ Video of hailfall: https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=999500782484311 Serious wind damage right over the CT border in Quaker Hill NY. https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1TsM5ejxkj/ NW flow delivers! The LTG plot reminded me of July 10, 1989 a little. Also, June 20, 1995. See here: https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/remembering-the-1995-hail-storm/16546/

And here we have yet another factor that misleads. Bad data and using a single point!