vortex95

But Cape Cod!!!

Glad you pointed this out. ECMWF was unrealistically showing tropical deepening well inland from MS to the Carolinas. 18z backed off and looks more reasonable. And now the GFS has the same idea. Excellent point about how this may play a role in the SVR later in the week. It seems up until now, rich deep moisture was lacking as noted by not so high CAPE even in the Mid-Atlantic, but this tropical low could make a huge difference as to sensible svr wx, esp. NYC to DCA.

Rather meh for NNE today. Not a single svr wx report and one SVR from CAR. Seems like the overnight stuff will end up better. RRFS and HRRR show this well for ern CT/RI/SE MA. Li'l finger of CAPE quite apparent. RRFS LTG density solid (as a rock).

Moving from Brockton to GHG to Dorchester headed farther N, then back S of Weymouth? Does a snow weenie in SNE do that?

Yes. absolutely crazy LTG shows. Probably tied to the EML and having "fat" CAPE at mid-levels, so the charge separation is ideal in the mixed phase layer.

Not according to CoastalWx!

Are their systematic issues w/ sonic anemometers? W/ all the new mesonet sites in MD the last few years, are we seeing wind measurement issues often?

Will this convince WxWiz that an EML is not required for SIGTOR? Scott still be like "MEH!" I have a hard time believing that something solid will not occur w/ those dynamics in place in mid-June in the region.

NNE looks good for short bow segments and supercells today. What is interesting is 2-5am Mon in eastern SNE. Nice theta-e noses at 925 and 850 and wind fields 700 and below ramp up nicely just ahead of the well-defined trough axis. 00z RRFS and to a lesser extent HRRR show decent tstms firing ern MA and RI. LTG density is solid. So maybe CoastalWx can get shaken out of bed w/ a +CG super crash! LOL.

Yes. I see that. Noted on the 00z ECMWF, very strong WAA occurs on Thu during the day with the passage of the WF (that's classic for a big tor day). Nice nose of above avg 850 temp 00z 6/19 (attached). Winds at 500 as high at 95 kt (attached) and 300 winds as high as 115 kt? Tell me something big can *not* happen w/ these kind of wind anomalies and such a strong sfc low in srn Quebec in June! Derecho instead of Scott spinners here perhaps. Looks better to SW of the region. Since set ups like this are rare here, we don't know the full range of possibilities. We may be surprised.

I'm originally from just NW of BOS, and the biggest thing I recall locally from that 6/1/11 was the nasty +CGs coming out of the supercell anvils overhead. The storm cores were 30 mi to my W. Don't see that too often in New England! Then another supercell just missed me in the evening that crushed BOS. Here is video (not mine) taken about 10 mi to my N in Lowell MA. This is telltale supercell lightning. Very frequent, quick flickering pulses in the upper part of the CB. You can actually see short cloud-to-cloud bolts at times, known in chaser slang as, "anvil zits!"

June 1, 2011 was the New England tor event w/ the EF3 Springfield-Monson MA. This is the last high-end tor event for New England, About every 10-15 years New England gets a high-end tor event, so one could say, "they're due!"

When I posted, I thought of it this way, in a overall synoptic sense, you don't track a 990 mb or deeper sfc low across southern Ontario/Quebec this time of year, and *not* have something big happen convectively! What that is exactly is and where? Way too early, but all the main pieces are there, so that's the first step. Work from there. What is really cool now is that modelling and knowledge have come to the point we now can reasonably see high-end/record-setting events potential well in advance. The first time I really took l note of this was a couple days before the Oct 29-30, 2011 snowstorm. I noticed how cold the short-range ensembles were showing the 850 mb temps, and I said, "this is going to be epic/really bad," and look what happened. Then a year later, we saw what the ECMWF was doing w/ Sandy (even before the system was named Sandy!) 9 days out, and again, look what happened! Now we had advanced enough to see high-end svr convective potential days 4-8. From a wx passion standpoint, it's really cool to know such things in advance now. Growing up, I recall the uncertainty factor seemed always so high, and so many surprises (snowstorms over-performing was a biggie). And from a societal POV, us knowing ahead of time is a tremendous benefit so we can prepare for them and mitigate impacts.