vortex95

More is not always better. Too many models as it is, so this is good "cleaning house." They were supposed to stop the HWRF and HMON before last hurricane season, but haven't. HAFS has proven itself big time, so just move on. As I have said, having too many models that have less skill overall hang around just allows hype-masters to find the ONE model that shows "what they want to see," and run w/ that.

30 days hath September, April, June, and November!

X post is hype for attention. And bandwagon/sample size logical fallacies -- "nobody I have connected with in the community wants this to happen." So this person's connections are all encompassing and represent the *entire* wx community? That's pretty narrow-minded and arrogant. And who exactly is saying they don't like the RRFS? Vague proclamations are a red flag. This reminded me of last year when the DoD was going to stop the data dissemination of the 3 legacy DMSP polar orbiter satellite, and the TC community was up in arms b/c of the loss of the microwave data, acting like this would cripple TC forecasting. Well, there are other satellite like this other countires have we have access to, and the DoD had already launched the first in a set of replacement satellites for this legacy batch. More and more, ppl post stuff for mere engagement bait, looking for the 15 microseconds of fame. And the flip side, as if 12km NAM is great? It hasn't been tweaked in 10+ years and is often useless after 36 hr. The 3km NAM issues w/ it overdoing its QPF, esp. orographics, do we need that still? Ppl who don't understand models use this 3 km NAM flaw and run w/ it as if 50" snowfalls in SNE will happen! Getting rid of NAM and it derivatives is a good thing. These days ppl will latch onto any change and act like it is end of days. They prey on the human basic instinct to fear change. Not all change is bad by default, and sometimes you have to move on for things to advance. Yes, the RRFS has its share of issues (SPC noted it has problems w/ the BL for convection), but what model does not have it share of issues? And as we get higher and higher resolution for models and try to directly simulate directly atmospheric process, rather than emulate, the challenge here is not linear. RRFS been in test and evaluation mode for some time, and available for all to see, so it not just like cold turkey, The HRRR will be run in tandem likely for some time (look at how long the NAM has stuck around).

Captain obvious strikes again! LOL.

Your lawn will like it!

If it is not 1/4SM VV001 +SNFZFG, Scott be like "MEH!"

"Worse after brief improvement" from the article. Yes, slight up and downs week-to-week. Why is this news? It is always oscillating like this. How is that any different than when it is wet and then "less wet" for a period? Taking about it constantly does not make it physically any worse of better, but they don't care. Anything to hype the negative. Today is the 12th day in a row w/ measurable precip in New England. 12z ECMWF now showing up to 3.5" for the upcoming slow-moving storm. All other global models show widespread 1-2" across the region. The point is taking snapshot week-to-week is excessive in this case. It's not like w/ are baking day after day w/ full sun and high evaporation rates.

I still think you should be more than happy Weymouth got two 20"+ "white gold" events in one season this past winter. I bet that has not happened more than 10x in last 60-70 years in the immediate area. Let me put it this way, nothing even remotely close like this happened in the 80s. Scott used to get mad as a kid when he expected 4-8" fcst by WBZ on the "backlash" and he'd wake up next morning to sunny conditions! "I WANTED NO 'SKEWL' !!!" I had my share. I recall on NOAA Wx Radio, NWS BOS would say "the storm failed to develop." This was a fcst like 24 hr out. Storms don't just "fail" like that in such short range. It was the stupid LFM model turning flat waves into 980 mb S+ events! It had so many problems w/ convective feedback. The NGM out by 1985 largely took care of his problem, but Scott still called it the "NO GOOD MODEL!"

Well, is this any different that CoastalWx having a PT for "MASSIVE DENDRITES" when "WE SNOW?" It will be 3/4S-, and we will get "RIPPING!"

Or 6/1/2011. Even when a spinner occur in Weymouth a few years ago, Scott was unimpressed! "If I do not SEE it, doesn't COUNT!" LOL.

Use 2m temps w/ caution, esp. in the longer ranges. They do not have MOS incorporated, so often run much too warm. I recall the GFS at times when a heat wave is fcst, showing BOS max of 110 on days 8-10. And look at the GFSX MOS for BOS, 70-75 Sun-Mon.

In this case, Templeton got the best storm of the day, and its intensity max right over the area, and then weakened. When you are not expecting it, and the isolated happens to be in your backyard, of course you are going to be elated! Also, early season convection after a long winter always gets more notice.

See CoastalWx? Someone who appreciates the little things in wx. I never get sick of close CGs and wicked thund-AH! And MRGL svr was not fcst today.

Stop downplaying convection! There is more to wx than just SPLUS!