vortex95

Yes, I agree. 30-yr does have practical uses, but for long-term climate, and I am talking on geological scales, it is useless. Things exist in a rather large range from a local to global scale when you consider how long the Earth has been around, and that's ok. Geez, the range of things from a climatic POV over millions of years? Also, I have seen things done w/ 30-year normals, both on a deliberate and accidental level. Using some random 30-year period to scale wx and records in the present. Which 30-year normal baseline is best to quantify changes or trends to the present? You see one can pick and chose to get desired results here either way. And why 30 years? Is this something significant climate-wise about 30 years? Given that is a tiny speck geologically, I would say not. It sounds more like a human convenient period (generational?) than anything else! We have a tendency to scale and build things around what humans consider a "long-time," but that does not work on geological scales. And then you run into period of record varying greatly for many locations across the globe, so there is big challenge here. We have to have something for a baseline, but having something does not mean it works well for all things.

And leave out conditions have improved in the last week in SNE. And in the large pix, I find it hard to believe that srn RI and SE MA are still svr drought conditions given the 8-11" of rain in the past 3 weeks (the way the drought conditions are calculated I have long have issues w/ despite how it isn't just about rainfall). Although the cut off day of 7/21 at 8am missed the big rains the following 24 hr, the post could have said how it has improved just in the last 48 hr which the map did not account for. Omission of facts to promote a particular narrative or prevent deflating hype! And really, how much of daily routine life has been impacted for the general public b/c we have had drought conditions for awhile? Yes, there are some impacts but nothing that we can't handle/absorb and have done so for a very long time. The way the MSM pushes drought often you'd think it is debilitating issue and our water supply is running out!

As if what happened last August has *any* relevance or influence on what this August will be like? Useless filler statement in the context of forecasting. This would be like saying, "recall last winter CoastalWx has two 20"+ snowstorms in Weymouth..." for this upcoming winter fcst. And not to leave out Wxwiz, for July 10 any year that has a tor risk on this day, "recall on July 10, 1989 we had 17 tors in the NEUS for its biggest outbreak on record!"

Enter August 2, 1975!

Odd statements like this that you would say, "no one ever says that!" or "says it that way!" are a red flag for AI-generated content. I've seen it many times in wx posts already on various social media platforms. One was talking about tornadoes and it said, "F5-class." First, not using the EF-scale is a red flag, and second, no one ever says "F5-class" for a pre-2007 tornado rating. We say, "F5-rated" or "rated F5"! In narration, it can sound great and getting all its facts correct, but you get thrown off whenever you hear a mispronounced word from AI not knowing usage context. Like "lead" or "wound." It stands out so much and it takes you out of the listening/learning part, and you immediately go, "AI SLOP!"

The door swings both ways, and neither far end is good! If one is going to cover wx for a big audience, state things objectively and try not to let personal bias sway you. Sadly, this position is harder and harder to find these days. And the most devious things about it is that some know better, are on the level, yet are well-aware that instigating conflict and divide w/ endless speculation, conjecture, and hedging is an easy way to get attention and monetize, so they disingenuously take this route. Some are more subtle than others. Look at the rhetoric and most importantly, how things are over time.

"If the wx is not *exactly* normal, then something is wrong!" The notion of normal is so messed up these days in public perception and in the field. Well, how about this to make ppl go ????? - "it's normal NOT to be normal! Normal all the time would be a problem in reality!" And ever notice that "not normal" is always associated w/ the negative? So how does one resolve atypical low tornado years or a quiet hurricane season? Or a winter than is rather mild in the CONUS, like strong EL Nino typically is? Heating costs and energy demand reduced alone makes it more beneficial than not.

40 at HIE on the latest GFS MOS. *Almost* a touch of frost!

You can see the mid-level center spin on radar near CRP currently. Talk about a tilted vortex sfc to mid-levels! This one of the most "disconnected" TCs I think I have ever seen. Great case study. The ECWMF handled this evolution very well. Compare its 925 mb RH/streamlines to its 500 mb RH streamlines, and the disconnect was fcst very well. This is about as far as you can get from a classic TC structure, but they exist on a *spectrum*. You can't use textbook examples all the time for what actually occurs in the real world. So both Arthur and Bertha were odd ducks, and even for sheared TC, more atypical for this variant of a TC. It also shows how the models still struggle w/ initial TC genesis for systems like this. Pre-Bertha was a non-tropical low that appeared it would remain broad and cold core, and strong shear was factor. Not that the models can't handle non-tropical to tropical transition, but the overall environment was not favorable, so that likely influenced the models. Yet the system still managed to form a large, solid LLCC in the mid 990s.

Now this is what I was talking about. Very intense convection b/c of the shear present. Cloud tops as cold as -90 C and an exceptional amount of CGs. Very dense. I attached a zoomed up image of the CG plot and it is still very dense! The strong shear in a tropical environment is promoting this intense convection. Looking at radar and then the EIR, you can see how these huge cold cloud tops are largely thick anvil w/ much small precip areas under it. Basically like a MCC or a supercell complex! Platforms in the Gulf are showing something going on as to a center much farther S and some mesoscale phenomena. KEZP earlier had sustained winds of 65G71KT at a height of 75 ft. This is transitory in squalls (svr tstms basically!). Here are some platform obs from near the possible new center. METAR KEKE 230535Z AUTO 20024G40KT 8SM BKN010 BKN014 OVC028 29/27 A2962 RMK A01 METAR KEKE 230515Z AUTO 22009KT 10SM SCT011 BKN016 OVC027 29/27 A2960 RMK A01 METAR KEKE 230455Z AUTO 18006KT 7SM SCT011 BKN016 OVC023 28/26 A2961 RMK A01 METAR KEKE 230435Z AUTO 36007G12KT 3SM HZ SCT014 BKN022 OVC043 28/26 A2960 RMK A01 METAR KEKE 230415Z AUTO 31018G24KT 10SM SCT011 BKN017 OVC043 29/27 A2959 RMK A01 METAR KEKE 230355Z AUTO 31025KT 1 3/4SM BR BKN011 BKN020 OVC027 29/27 A2958 RMK A01 VIS 3/4V5 METAR KEKE 230335Z AUTO 32024KT 10SM SCT016 BKN026 OVC065 29/27 A2959 RMK A01 METAR KEKE 230315Z AUTO 32033KT 10SM SCT013 BKN019 OVC060 29/26 A2956 RMK A01 METAR KEZP 230535Z AUTO 32035G51KT 1 1/2SM BR BKN003 OVC030 26/24 A2973 RMK A01 METAR KEZP 230510Z AUTO 27033G41KT M1/4SM FG OVC003 26/24 A2972 RMK A01 METAR KEZP 230455Z AUTO 23042G55KT M1/4SM FG OVC003 26/25 A2977 RMK A01 METAR KEZP 230435Z AUTO 21065G71KT M1/4SM FG OVC003 27/25 A2965 RMK A01 METAR KEZP 230415Z AUTO 25040KT 2SM HZ OVC036 29/25 A2972 RMK A01 METAR KEZP 230355Z AUTO 29034G42KT 5SM HZ BKN039 OVC045 29/25 A2968 RMK A01 METAR KEZP 230335Z AUTO 30042KT 7SM BKN043 BKN055 OVC070 30/25 A2966 RMK A01 METAR KEZP 230315Z AUTO 30041KT 8SM BKN046 BKN060 OVC120 30/25 A2967 RMK A01

Sorry for the rant, here, but Wxwiz's statement deserves more detail using recent and further back factual history. El Nino is a lazy blame here. Can one really say this very wet period on South Coast on it? What about ern MA w/ its long-tern precip deficit and svr drought conditions? What happened to that? Did emerging El Nino conditions cause that as well? Going back to BDR record wet Julys that was posted earlier as an example, #1 is 1971 which was weak La Nina, #3 is 2021 and that was mdt La Nina. #4 was in 1988 and that was strong La Nina. Oh, but #2 is 2026 and strong El Nino is imminent, so that means it was the cause, esp. b/c it is in the here and now! Vapid and linear thinking. Are we to believe the El Nino singled out the South Coast and has left BOS high and dry, relatively speaking, and even more so NNE this month? What about how wet was in NNE the previous months and SNE was ripped of? Yes, BOS finally has an above avg rainfall month, but what, just quickly dismiss the long-term dryness that local media can't leave alone? Some ppl just turn on a dime here, whichever way the winds blows, and use the fact the public has short-term memory/attention spans. Also, El Nino direct effects show most in the winter for the CONUS, and most apparent for the precip in the subtropics this part of the globe. See the problem here? Some just make simplistic 1-1 correlations w/ nothing to back it up. Content on social media, and truth/facts be damned! Anyone can speculate, opine, or conjecture, and that's fine in itself, but too often these days it gets treated as fact or "will happen."

So the opposite of a storm surge! CoastalWx really gets into this "backwards erosion." Several years ago, this happened on Cape Cod, and he was like "what the...?"

What site gives the stats for climate location like this? Good stuff!