vortex95

A lot of things claim that have never happened before, HAVE! Yes, we use the continuous POR from climo sites, but we do have records prior to, say 1872, for BOS when the official climate record begins. And some climate site are quite short, like IAD, which began in 1960. CAR starts in 1939. And you can take it one step further. I've seen statements prior about dozens of sites in TX have their warmest month or highest temp, and I looked and the long-term climate sites like DFW or HOU did not. Well, that stat came from all the new AWOS METAR sites installed since 2001 in the state, and there have been well over 100 and still sites are been added to this day, so you have a POR 25 years or less for all these sites, so of course records are broken easier for not so extreme temps! But that part of it is left out of the narrative! And this is the case for a lot of the U.S. Over 1000 AWOS sites installed starting in the early 90s for many states. And add in all the state mesonet networks now. OK was the first, and many have followed. And for rainfall, the CoCoRaHS network, which was not a thing until 1998.

Not too long ago, a video clip "suggest for you" popped up my X feed. It is brief segment from Fox Weather, but it could have been any major media outlet. What is shown exemplifies how wx is pushed and micromanaged these days, and things like minimal risk are scrutinized to the max. In this case, a NHC Tropical Wx Outlook for a newly highlighted low prob area for TC development. This is from 6/27/26. First the actual outlook: NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Off of the southeastern coast of the U. S.: A low pressure area is expected to form offshore of the southeastern coast of the United States along the western end of a frontal system early next week. Slow development of this system will be possible thereafter while it moves slowly westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. Concise and to the point. Now take a look at the short Fox Wx segment concerning it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzkWpIth-Po Breaking news for an NHC outlook that is 0/20?? Really? This is what constitutes 'breaking news' these days? Talk about scrapping the bottom of the barrel for content! The amount of time just spent on such low potential area and not in short range here is a lot, more than is necessary really. And at the end of the segment, the grease pan analogy. Huh? If the probability were moderate-high, esp. in the next 2 days, that certainty warrants a segment and discussion, but this? It is more filler than anything. A quick mention of this potential is fine for a wx segment, but surely there were more pressing wx concerns and short-term risks to talk about? In this case, there was. Here is the DY1 SWO for 6/27. A lot of sig svr tstm risk! https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2026/day1otlk_20260627_1200.html And this is what happened for svr wx. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/260627_rpts.html Not every little tiny risk/threat has to be mentioned, hyped, or picked apart to make it sound more important than it really is!

And this micromanaging of the PV. Our POR is not that long, and the degree of attention we have given it in the last 20 years or so? Some just are making a living taking about the PV and every litte nuance and idiosyncrasy. It is excessive. There is more to the wx and pattern than the PV, and just b/c does something that has not been seen before in the POR does not necessarily mean it will have *any* noticeable on sensible wx outside the norm. It's really more about content now for many on social media to feed the daily media "beast" than practical info one can use for forecasting IMHO. They know by promoting such, they can get media interviews and the like, for 15 sec of "fame."

Huh? There have been 4 very strong El Nino prior to this one since 1950. And everything going on so far this cool season has lined up well w/ what to expect. Just b/c the pattern in the NEUS is "boring" and warm? @CoastalWxneeds to set aside his personal predilections about what HE wants for wx! Do I have to bring up the singles/doubles and home run analogy again? And one can slice and dice down super local and find things that have not happened before given the sheer amounts of wx parameters to use and climate locations out there. That's micromanaging to find content to hype. What matters is the large-scale mean.

Thanks. Yes, something one needs to take a step back and look at things in a balance and objective way. Like "are things really that atypical or abnormal in the context of what is happening in a given pattern/oscillation?" It like when we get an epic E Coast winter, how is that unusual really? It has happened before, so in itself, that it normal climo. Sure, frequency in winters go up and down over longer periods, but again, that's normal! And sometimes, it is absolutely NUTZ! I always say, "when it's good, it sometimes can be REAL good!" and not act linear in terms of how wild it can get. Like the 6 week period in Jan-Feb 2015. Quite localized, but where it was good, it was the best ever for snow weenies! The best example I like to use is April 2011. Yes, we first think about the superoutbreak at the end of the month, and that was epic, but there were over 500 other tors that month outside that event for the tor record for *any* month by far w/ 757 for the CONUS!

@CoastalWxmay need to be "cocked" a lot this winter to forget the torch and lack of snow! Pass the Mad Dog 2020!

And yet there are ppl who swear by him and he has them eating of his hands! UGH.

TY In-Fa from Oct 27-31 maintained solid annular characteristics. It fit annular TC mode very well, meaning it remained basically steady-state structurally for an extended period ("truck tire") and stayed strong w/o much variance (no RI/RW) 115 to 130 kt during that time.

From JTWC: JTWC has determined that an invest in the Bay of Bengal last week (90B) briefly became a tropical cyclone during 27-28 OCT but was not upgraded in real-time. To preserve the chronology of the historical record, we have posthumously renumbered this system to IO032026 (03B). You may have noticed that the next IO storm (04B), which is still active, appeared to skip a cyclone number due to this change.

Depends on where you were. Don't be a @CoastalWx!

But given we have only 4 very strong El Ninos prior since 1950, we could be surprised. One thing I have come to realize that just when you think you'd seen it all, a big curve ball is thrown, so do no totally dismiss the E Coast for sig snows. Case in point when it comes to very strong El Nino, and I have mentioned this before, we always assumed the Cali gets soaked in such El Nino and the Pac NW dry, but the 2015-16 event, the exact opposite occurred! So even though many regions often get the same sensible wx in this type of El Nino, they can be sig deviations for some. Why not us this time? And locally for this type of El Nino, we can cash in from a not-so-apparent or rather MEH-looking event. Like Dec 23. 1997! And of course, big events like Feb 1983 of Jan 2016. And really 2015-16, we did not do that bad in SNE. Better than the long lamenting 40year period @CoastalWx would not stop b*tching about through Dec 2025! https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/sne-15-16

This guy "Northeast Wx Alert" on FB has been pushing big cold for the NEUS this winter all along, and as soon as the models shows it cold in the long range, he jumps all over it and says things such as "as I was saying" w/ endless patting himself on the back. See the post below. What is funny is that is a 10-day fcst, and he acts like he always "wins" here, when it hasn't even happened yet! Classic weasel fcst statement: "This is precisely the possibility I have been discussing." Using "precise" and "possibility" in the same sentence when talking about a 10-day fcst??? Well, that the problem with this guy, he is *always* talking about the long range and what *might* happen, never the short range or what *is* happening. Never talks about verification of his forecasts, just always hedging and wording things in generic and vague terms w/ about as classic word salad as you can get that is verbose that says nothing, or nothing anyone could not say and have no skills in forecasting, just good w/ the word hustle! I've called him out several times in the past w/ reasonable and valid statements about his style and wording, and of course, all the defensive, and he eventually blocked me. That's tell-tale sign of a hustler/poser or someone who is closed-minded and about ME ME ME! They block you when they know they are cornered and can't rebut/retort from valid statements that give sold criticism. He talks about blocking and the -NAO. Just b/c it gets cold in the NEUS does not mean there is blocking and a -NAO. In such a strong El Nino pattern, the STJ dominates and things are very progressive, so Greenland blocking is largely absent. There is blocking, but it is in central Canada, not the same thing for CONUS sensible wx!

Last year record early depth on Mansfield. I was optimistic for the winter, but @CoastalWx did he typical, "good for them, but NNE is irrelevant to me!" And then look what happened for the winter! "VIOLENTLY BEAUTIFUL" several times for his vista outside his home in Weymouth!

It reminds me when the MSM says, "super warming in Antarctica when temps 50 F above avg! Sounds crazy, right? But when your avg temps are so ridiculously cold, even +50 F is still cold. Vostok's mean month temp ranges from a high of -32 F to a low of -67 F. So do the math! Also, in the polar regions, wild above and below temps are much more common here merely due to its climate. And in typically clueless or disingenuous fashion, I have seen some take a temp anomalies in deg C, and forget to subtract 32 from it for the F equivalent. In other words, 30 C then will be temps 86 F above avg! Anything to push the hot narrative.

And one less hour of diurnal heating! Seriously, I see that in the spring when chase season ramps up...one extra hour of heating! I'd like to say it just trolls or engagement bait, but not always.