vortex95

"If it’s not a mile or less away I’m not interested." The most @CoastalWx "EEYORE" line EV-A! He is forgetting about +CGs. I had one in Silver Spring the other week, and it was 6 mi away. I did not see the bolt itself, but got an "enveloping" very bright flash all around me, and it was during the day. 30 sec later, this incredible THUD occurred!

How did that work out Scott? Crazy LTG shows in CT/MA last evening!

Scott was impressed w/ the outflow winds at his high school and flanking line TCU for the Brockton downburst in May 1996. He missed it, and still was like, "WOW!" Now? MEH MEH MEH!

Also, when kids, first impressions are massive and imprint strongly. And everything is larger than life as a kid. I have so many memories on this level and now I am somewhat jaded (not like @CoastalWx though!) and it takes a *lot* to impress me! However, that doesn't mean I do not still enjoy it all. Also, these days, being so in touch w all that goes on around us for wx, we see clearly more how many times we "miss" things, but when you confine it to one local area (like WEYMOUTH!) of course you are going to feel ripped off way more often b/c you are far more aware of what happened elsewhere and hence whine "WHY CAN"T WE GET THAT!?" Some of my most vivid tstm memories are from Hampton Beach. Yes, given the VIS is much better on a beach, that is factor, but way too many times I recall nasty stuff there, and at all hours of the day. Turns out there is something to that, as storm tend to intensify as they approach the NH coast, or at least don't crap out like so many times as they approach 495/128!

and DIAMOND DUST at 30,000 ft!

Only @CoastalWx would use "decent" and "meh" in the same sentence! It's like when he finally had his 6" in a single storm b4 the 20"+ events this past winter, and he used "violently" and "beautiful" in the same sentence!

I wonder if the GFS still has its TC spin-up bias in the long range? It looks more optimistic that the ECMWF Very dry at low-levels currently in the MDR, and will the dust outbreaks decrease? TCs can form in such hostile MDR conditions, but they are typical quite small and struggle. We saw this in the previous two years a lot.

Today's set up is almost identical to ydy. And the SPC outlook looks very similar as well. So multicellular clusters once again. We do have the storms nrn areas now, but the clouds should clear out nicely behind it all for plenty of aftn heating. And VIS currently clearly shows boundaries laid down S of the tstm area.

Yesterday was a case of how hugging models can burn you for a fcst big time. This is where human fcst skill and intuition comes in. I stated the setup in a previous post and noted there were no reasons why there would not be sct-bkn coverage fro tstms Friday, and that was the case! Not tooting my own horn, just saying that models are far from perfect, and only *simulate* the atmosphere. They are not direct copies! And it shows that we are far from having fcsts automated. esp, for mesoscale phenomena.. Also, sometimes ppl will say, "well, this is the latest run (of the HRRR (for instance), so it has the latest data, so it *must* be more right than previous runs!" Obviously, that is flawed reasoning. Models can be wrong for all sorts of reasons in any given run, and sometimes egregiously so. And it is not always apparent why they do that. That's ok b/c they have limitations by default and again, the human fcst part comes in here and is still of very high value! Also, SPC had a SLGHT risk of svr tstms for the region. Why would one just ignore that? I would defer to SPC outlooks the vast majority of the time, as that's all they do, fcst convection! It was not highly conditional case (BOOM or BUST) w/ strong capping in place. Convective temps would be reached easily so decent tstm coverage was high prob. So putting in zero POPs for anywhere n the DMV yesterday has me scratching my head.

Those storms in nrn MD now, the HRRR even through 13z did not depict them well and dissipated any cells quickly. What they may do is lie down an outflow boundary to the S for focus of potentially stronger storms later.

At least could you see the FQT LTGIC DSNT NW last night from Weymouth?

00z HRRR shows decent storms this afternoon, but 01-06z, it oddly has very little. The 00 and 06z RRFS is lacking in storm coverage as well. 06z 3 and 12km NAM do show plenty of tstms. Not sure what is going on here. It is not too warm aloft (700 temps 7-8 C and 1000-500 thickness 576-577), flow aloft is slightly cyclonic, and w/ temps maxing in the mid 90s and dews low-mid 70s, I see no reason why tstm coverage should not be sct-bkn. Plenty of instability CAPE 2500-3500, lapse rates better than several days ago up to 6.5 C/km at mid-levels. PWATs around 2" so big rain potential again. Winds aloft kind of MEH. So expect multicellular clusters.

Looking closer, it appears Dolphin's motion may be a Fujiwara from the remains of 13W and the new invest 98W, both to Dolphin's SE. You can see this all on the 00 hr GFS 850 vorticity attached. And in the next week, the GFS really gets carried away (see model loop attached), spinning up several more gyres (and 13W comes back), some or all that could become TCs. This happens every several years when you get a large monsoon trough in the NWPAC. JTWC/RJTD do not always declare these systems, esp. if they are very small, but just b/c they are very small does not mean they are not legit TCs. If anything, the small TCs tend to be stronger than any satellite estimate can provide! 5 named storms at once in the NWPAC has occurred many times, but only 6 at once one time. See table attached.

RORY Yoronjima pressure dropped to at least 938 mb as the eye passed. Since the reports are hourly, the pressure likely got lower. However, the winds are not what one would expect for such a small inner core and low pressure. RORY 070600Z AUTO 11031G42KT 2300 RA BR SCT008 OVC010 //////TCU 28/27 Q0959 RORY 070500Z AUTO 11032G45KT 3300 -RA BR BKN006 BKN010 OVC013 //////TCU 28/27 Q0959 RORY 070400Z AUTO 11031G44KT 1500 RA BR FEW004 BKN007 OVC008 //////TCU 28/27 Q0957 RORY 070300Z AUTO 10040G68KT 0600 RA FG OVC004 //////CB 28/28 Q0951 RORY 070200Z AUTO 06022G33KT 1200 -RA BR FEW003 BKN005 BKN007 //////TCU 29/28 Q0938 RORY 070100Z AUTO 33055G71KT 0200 RA FG SCT004 BKN007 OVC012 //////TCU 28/28 Q0951 RORY 070000Z AUTO 33038G51KT 1300 RA BR SCT006 BKN009 OVC011 //////TCU 28/27 Q0961