vortex95

It will be worth it for the sneaky S+ risk! Noted the 06z GFS has a max of 4.55" rainfall right over FIT. Seems a lot for such a low track. Where is all the moisture coming from, esp. since there is not much of a sfc low initially? GFS not so OTL it seems b/c the 00z ECMWF has a max of 2.81" in the same exact spot. That kind of pcpn intensity and a cold 850? Things that make you go hmmmm....

00z GFS significantly stronger and tucked back farther W w/ the closed 500 low for May 30. It shows 4-8" parts of nrn NH. What stands out is that the 00z GFS/ICON and the earlier UKMET show substantial QPF, 2-3" in some areas. This is absolutely key for the Scott S+ this time of year (intensity). I like that the GFS is showing more sfc low development just S of the region for more ageostrophic flow.

Look like a strong El Nino pattern we'd see in winter, except it's still not El Nino yet!

"You heard it here first!"

Like how bad it got in the summer of 2016? An extreme drought area showed up in MA! OMG, the world ended! The Quabbin is 84% capacity now. It got as low as 79% in Dec 2016. Clickbait post.

Also, you don't need a honkin' cut-off at 500 to do it in May, at least not directly over New England, nor do you need a strong sfc low. May 18, 2002. This produced what is perhaps the latest accumulating snowfall in ern MA on record. I had .2" in Woburn and this was during the day. You know how hard it is do that this late w/ that sun angle (it still is "felt" though a dense OVC). Also, note it was generally above 540 thk where it snowed. 540 usually does not work so well this late in the season. ALB had 2.2" and max amount was 8" at Prattsvile NY. Weenie snowfall report from this day on this group? I'd like to see them. Omega block once again, but its horizontal axis was not as far S as 1967 and 1977. Of note, 4 days before, CAR had 2.7" for its latest measurable snow on record.

Given the amp'ed pattern and omega block, why not? As I noted earlier, "this is how do you it" this time of year. Look at May 9-10, 1977. Omega block just the same. And it does not have to be as amp'ed to do it either. Enter May 25-26, 1967. Same pattern, yet not as weenie Xtreme. MA/NH summaries for the storm attached. If this occurred today? CoastalWx would give new meaning to his line "VIOLENTLY BEAUTIFUL!"

In other newZZZZZZZZ that Wxwiz will be . So far this May, only 26 tornadoes have been confirmed, and w/ the pitiful pattern for the next week, not that many more should occur. The record for the least amount of tornadoes in May in the U.S. since 1985 is 121 set in 2012. So it appears we will break this record by far! Here are the records for each month. Sure, one can pick any year for a start time, but I chose 1985 since second half of the 80s had a significant spike down for total tornadoes, not unlike 2012-2016, so I am trying to include up/down cycles long-term w/o compromising total count caveats. * Lowest U.S. tornado counts by month (since 1985): January 1986/2003 0 July 2012 37 February 2010 1 August 2014 33 March 2015 11 September 2009 8 April 1987 20 October 1987 1 May 2012 121 November 2009 3 June 1988 63 December 2003 1 So where is this good news in the MSM? This is a significant record. But doesn't fit the "end of days" wx/climate narrative. They are focused on speculation/conjecture instead of *facts*, like this: https://www.ktvq.com/news/montana-ag-network/massive-northeast-montana-dust-storm-raises-fears-of-another-dust-bowl-era What I find interesting is 7 months had their least on record 2009-15. And this occurred w/ tornado detection/documentation being much better than decades prior. So again, good news for society as a whole, but ignored.

Yes, but we do need the rain, and many in NYC-SDF-OKC-HOU-MSY-JAX outlined zone are get it good, and will continue.

Accumulating snow in June outside of MWN or AOA 5000 ft is very rare in New England. Look at the 168 hr 12z ECMWF. Nice cold cut-off at 500 dropping SSE. That how you do it this late. The most Xtreme 500 case was May 9-10, 1977. You could track the upper low from northern Hudson's Bay all the way to S of LI, where it became a massive 5 contour 500 cut off (going by every 6 dm). Of course, it would take an truly extraordinary set up for Scott to see flakes in June here! The June 6, 1816 S+ in NNE had the benefit of the volcanic cooling combined w/ a strong sun Maunder minimum.

24 F at SLK. FYIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII....

Scott would disagree...

Oh I have stories! Scott's lame excuse is, "most posts are in the sports zone section!"

It was right along the warm/coastal front. Brunswick (KNHZ at the time) showed the sfc winds veer quickly and temps rose in the low 40s, after being in the upper 20s w/ several hours of S-. Very cold aloft and ocean temps still a bit mild in Nov, so there you go!