vortex95

Is post-tropical the same as a tropical wave. which is "open." Does that mean all tropical waves are post-tropical when they first come off Africa? You get into problems here w/ nomenclature.

In last 20 years or so, NHC often skips the TD stage completely in the Atlantic. I am not sure why. However in the EPAC, they have no problem starting systems as TDs. It's not like TCs work any different between these 2 basins, and 30 kt winds w/ a defined closed sfc circulation and deep convection doesn't care which basin it is in. It is still the same thing! Skipping the TD stage is a disservice IMHO since declaring a system that is indeed a TD gives a full fcst product suite and raises awareness sooner. Is that not of high value? Models have become very good for TC genesis now, and we have ASCAT and SAR winds to see better than ever what is actually there, so no reason to take advantage of this skill?

Knowing these shortcomings is of high value. Some ppl are riding high on AI modeling as the best thing since sliced bread and they are a panacea.

Some "backup" storms W to E Reston area and actually lifting ENE a bit. DOX radar shows hail cores aloft. CGs increasing last 20 min.

Yes, what does the state *import*. They seem to have left that out. But never let such facts interfere w/ a desired narrative or virtue signaling. "but you can call yourself green because it's a larger share --- and then import the lion's share of your electric from a non-green heavy grid." The fine art of cherry-picking and playing w/ numbers!

Of course. Right, there are about 50 magnitude 4-5 quakes every day. So how does that work? Did CC "target" Nepal for some reason? The Himalayan chain is very prone to quakes due to the Indian Plate collision. And this was only a moderate quake. Law of averages and large numbers say something like this is going to happen from time to time, a concept the MSM and many grifters ignore or lack. So did the AK Lituya Bay quake and landslide megatsunmai in 1958, what caused that? The idea that sfc temp changes cause quakes anything more that frostquakes is ridiculous. Quakes original far down often in superheated or molten areas. And regardless of CC, the topmost layer going down 10s of ft experience massive thermal stress year round unevenly around the globe w/ the change of seasons, and not just from temp, but rain/snow/ice as well. The Moon's pull alone "works over" the Earth's crust constantly, and likely triggers many smaller of the quakes we see every day, along w/ tides, so there is no sensitivity tipping point or whatever!

That's good info. I thought the video looked odd for a typical flash flood. I saw one video where it was all this dark dust/debris at first, like a cloud.

I'd be careful about how solar and wind are pushed as "supplying more of the power" or "taking over." They play w/ numbers and cherry-pick stats for particular hours or days. What matters is in long-term mean and going by any state, region, or even country can be misleading b/c we share electricity across borders. Grids are not isolated in many areas of the world. Also, even though solar/wind is on rise, coal/gas as a whole is also on the rise in many countries. China leads the way in solar, but they also lead the way in new coal plants coming online and coal consumption, avg 2 new plants a week. So yes, solar in increasing but not as a percentage overall. This is where they play w/ numbers, giving absolute power output for solar and leaving out total percentage of use by all energy sources overall for the grids.

Clueless. He does not seem to know, or just being disingenuous b/c he wants to post content and clickbait, that it is a 5 day avg temp. that's why it's called the 6 to 10 day. This is what happens when there are no TCs in the Atlantic to hype late summer, ppl just start posting fluff/nonsense or wx event anniversaries that are not multiples of 5. It's why all you hear the last few days is "34 years since HU Andrew!"

6 tor in the PHI CWA, so I think the 5% tor risk worked out well. And just looking on radar what the Dover supercell was like, you knew things were quite favorable!

Unless there was a steam expansion explosion, which can happen easily w/ a quick single strike (trees are common). this looks like it could have been "sizzle bolt" as I like call them. You know the ones that pulse multiple times in the same spot, sometimes lasting up to 4-5 sec in the most exceptional cases (I saw a bolt like this once in OK, and my jaw nearly dropped to the floor b/c it was so "long" in pulsing!). Or it could ave been a +CG, which are often 10x stronger than a typical -CG.

Yes, the density of CGs that evening when the LLCC was on the LA coast but the mid-level center was way to the S, the density of the CGs was among the craziest have ever seen for a TC close the the CONUS! Strong shear and dry air at mid-levels was basically sustaining a large supercell over the open Gulf.

Missing the heaviest part of the line, but getting some +CGs in the rear close-by makes my day! You can get some really odd acoustics! Also, the many times a +CGs is a long CC bolt at first, and then it comes down, so the flashing can be atypically extended. That's how you know many times it is a +CG even if you do not see the bolts. And I know ppl here know this, but look for the "bright-banding" in the rear of a MCS for +CGs. It's not bright-banding as in wet snowflakes aloft, but it looks the same. Broad 35-45 dBZ area. Typically, the precip is "big drop, steady light rain" under such echoes.

That's good historical info. And to add in, given our standards and practices today, and much better detection/documentation. It is highly likely Cristobal would have never been declared or gone completely undetected in those above mentioned years.

Good info! To quantify it in scale and time is of value. When you look at things enough, like wx patterns for whatever phenomena, it does sink in and provide that met experience that can't taught or trained, you just have to keep doing it yourself repeatedly over time, and keep gathering/gleaning tidbits here and there, so you eventually really do get a "feel" for things subjective and objectivity! And so far, the rule of thumb when it is very strong El Nino and the Atlantic hurricane season is suppressed still "works" and works well! I know it not the best for TC enthusiasts, but at least it was not a surprise.