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vortex95

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About vortex95

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KDCA
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    MD

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  1. vortex95
    The "barrier" is in place.
  2. vortex95
    @JACKASS just wants the real deal! No wishcasting, whining, or waffling!
  3. vortex95
    I don't think I have ever seen a TOR watch "nested" inside a larger SVR watch. Has that ever occurred before?
  4. vortex95
    That kind of SCP/SIGTOR bulls-eye is excellent for this time of year Mid-Atlantic or NEUS. And despite all the clouds and earlier showers, sfc-based CAPE is high w/ the bulls-eye just SE of the metro and a good gradient N suburbs. Current svr storm to the W ride that gradient (boundary)!
  5. vortex95
    Surprised no tor watch. 5% typically means one here. And w/ the CIG1 hatched area? Georgteown storm appears supercellular. EDIT: Now a TOR issued.
  6. vortex95
  7. vortex95
    I share your skepticism, b/c so many fails this summer. But past performance does not....
  8. vortex95
    I know the event has yet to unfold, but recall a few days go, someone asked "is this it for svr for awhile for the region? And look at the DY3 outlook from 8/18 (attached). Now? 5% tor risk hatched? So it shows how things that do not look so good 3+ days out, can turn around, and sometimes big. The fine mesoscale details are everything, and sometimes it is only apparent that day hours before, or sometimes in real-time (June 5, 2024 comes to mind). May 3, 1999 epic OK tor outbreak. It was clear as mud as to the extent of that event. Morning outlook had SLGHT, upgraded to MDT by 1630z, and the 20z outlook when HIGH. The issue that day was lots of clouds and enough diurnal heating for storm to fire in the first place. And it was not synoptically-evident big tor outbreak day. And yet the result was the biggest single day OK tor outbreak for total tors (66) on record, and some monsters that revealed some amazing data from the DOWs. June 29.,2012 derecho here. That morning it was SLGHT, and by the aftn update, it was upgrade to HIGH as it was apparent the derecho in the OH Valley was taking on a life of its own, and again a historic event. The above are the exceptions, not the rule, but it shows how we can still be "surprised." And that uncertainty still exists today, despite all our advances.
  9. vortex95
    It seems just E of I95 and just S and SE of the metro is always "in play!" The way I approach it now is, "is the area between a line from DCA and IAD and about 15 mi to the N in play b/c this area seems most variable and gets the shaft, relatively speaking, more often that not. Probably due to the location from things like downslope from the Appalachians, but it seems very dependent on the mean flow. W and WNW seems to be not good often (DC split), but of course, this is just a broad view. Subtle differences in the mesoscale can be huge.
  10. vortex95
    Deep layer shear is good tomorrow, and there an solid 250 mb jet involved, unlike last time, so better dynamically. HRRR really makes the CAPE stand out over the entire bay. PWATs come up nicely during the day, so do sfc dew points.
  11. vortex95
    @CoastalWxdoes not realize the RPLUS for ern sections is not fcst for tomorrow. The srn MCS is long gone. The big GHG rains are overnight Fri. This is not purely a diurnal convective event!
  12. vortex95
    Past performance is no guarantee of what happens "next time!"
  13. vortex95
    @CoastalWx mode -- downplay by default. I know this attitude b/c if one does not get excited at all and dismisses, then less disappointment. But if it does occur, that makes for good. It would nice if you could provide more than EEYORE-natured one-liners. I guess that's what nearly 178k posts do, makes one jaded and worn out!
  14. vortex95
    Both RRFSs show a 4" max near GHG. That's not nothing special!
  15. vortex95
    What about the RRFS (both versions?).
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