MN Transplant

This morning’s NAM was the worst of the bunch (midday 40s). The GFS took a step back too. Friday looks gross. Saturday is still unsettled.

LWX .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Uncertainty remains wrt the temp forecast Friday into Saturday due to where a frontal boundary will stall. Models continue to show a 20- 30 degree spread in high temps during this period. With the front stalled nearby, a sfc low will track along the front. Some guidance shows a wedge of stable/cool air to the east of the Alleghenies with highs only staying in the 50s north of I-66 on Friday, however some guidance erodes the wedge rather quickly. Ensemble guidance and the NBM show the most likely solution at this time is the front stalls somewhere near the FA and a gradient in temperatures exists with near 70 across the southern areas and upper 50s along the Mason- Dixon. Should a warmer scenario come to fruition, the potential for enough instability rooted in the boundary layer to result in surface-based convection/thunderstorms, especially during the Saturday period as the strong sw trough moves through. Given favorable mid-level lapse rates of 6-7C/km coupled with 60-70 kts in the 850-700 mb layer, there could be the attendant risk for severe weather if this scenario works out given the strong dynamics and shear at play.

Still a huge difference on the globals for Friday/Saturday. The Euro is gross, dragging down a front and leaving us in the 40s/50s, while the GFS delays the front and then sends it back north with the next low, leaving us in the 70s. GFS/Euro/ICON/Meteoblue from Windy

Huge difference between the GFS and Euro for Friday. GFS has the torch, while the Euro backdoors us.

The oldest NAM Nest on COD was from Friday morning and it had ~21 for you, so, pretty much.

24.4. Coldest since Feb 4th in my yard!

If we can nail a near 80 day next Saturday while the cherry blossoms are in full bloom, the tidal basin will be a madhouse.

I consider the March 2018 wind as one of the top weather events of the past decade locally.

Ready for more wind?!

39.0 and light snow

Climo sites are all running about +4 on the month. That'll clearly get knocked back this upcoming week.

No flurries, just miserable. 37.2 and wind.

Rain?

Is this thread where we track Saturday’s wind gusts?

This is truly an awful period of weather coming up. Rain or white rain, windy, and chilly.

Verbatim the GFS upper-levels and time of day are just fine for snow. It is 36/34 by the afternoon, so it is a drip-fest, but better than nothing. The late March 2013 comparison is apt.

To state the obvious, you need that trough that is over us at 204 to have already gone negative by that point.

Heck of a fire from a tanker truck crash in Frederick

Going to have a unique 3:30pm low temp today

The HRRR is quite aggressive tomorrow for wind gusts in the afternoon. NAM seems more realistic.

Still might be stolen.

A little disorienting at 3:30am. Took me a minute to figure out what was happening!

That's wild. It looks like the temps briefly dropped to the upper 40s in Newport Beach which must have been just good enough.

Bottom 6 all in the last 30 years.