MN Transplant

This is every 4"+ storm starting in '09/'10. On your suggestion I went back and added to Jan 2011, including 0.5" that fell in the morning. 2/5/10 24.7 1/22-1/23/16 24.0 12/19/09 19.0 2/12-2/13/14 13.7 1/12-1/13/19 9.8 2/9/10 9.5 3/16-3/17/14 9.1 1/3/22 8.8 1/5-1/6/25 7.7 1/26/11 7.5 1/30/10 6.1 1/21/14 5.8 2/2/10 5.1 3/5/15 5.1 3/3/14 4.8 1/31-2/2/21 4.7 3/25/13 4.5 2/21/15 4.5 1/15-16/24 4.3 2/15/16 4.2 3/6/13 4.0

Yeah, I didn't think about it but it looks like this is a top-10 in the last 15 years at my house. We have the same top 3 in that order, but Feb. 2014 jumps up to my #4 and the 2nd Feb 2010 storm falls to 6th (stupid Miller B).

In ND there were kids that would let their diesel trucks idle the entire day while at school. And that might be why we don't have cold days anymore.

There are significant differences. At a very high level, AI models are trained on reanalysis data. It is analog/pattern recognition on steroids. I think there are some traditional modeling-like guard rails involved, but others that have more knowledge should chime in. Traditional models are physics-based, solving numerical fluid dynamics equations and then adding in parameterizations for things that can't be realistically calculated (and some tuning for good measure).

It might depend on your location. We were a very realistic 10:1 with the main bulk of snow overnight, but during the day on Monday the flakes were rimed with terrible ratios and my location didn't really score much with the ULL passage.

We have some pavement, some slush and it is not close to open curb-to-curb. It was much better in 2022 with that slightly bigger storm. For whatever reason, they've struggled with this one.

12/24/24 - 0.1" 1/3/25 - 0.3" 1/6/25 - 7.7" Total 8.1", 41% of long-term seasonal

Yeah, I only tacked on 2.5" from 7am to close yesterday on 0.33" precip. Not even the later snow helped with the ratios (and I didn't get that much from the ULL pass, certainly not 2"). Final, 7.7" on 0.84" precip. The IAD number seems strange, but there is another observer in Sterling Park that has the same 5.1". When everyone fills in the CoCoRahs reports we'll see if that looks like a bad measurement.

2.2” since 7am for a total of 7.4” so far. Compaction means 6.7” on the ground currently.

Fighting compaction at this point. Not sure that I’ll pass 6” otg.

In the 12-hour period from 10am to 10pm, here are the model outputs from the mesos: RGEM: 0.2-0.35" precip NAM 3k: 0.25-0.4" HRRR (12z): 0.1"-0.2"

5.5" as of about 10 minutes ago. I was out shoveling for the past hour and we never went to sleet in my area of the western DC beltway, but the flakes were rimed making the distinction a bit blurry.

5.2” on 0.51 precip, for an almost perfect 10:1 ratio. Rimed flakes now.

DP hasn’t moved a degree. 30/8. My Vikes completely crapped the bed tonight.

Still snowing in Kansas

1-5 in the division, with the only win on a blocked FG. Love it. Now they go to Philly as sacrificial lambs.

If everything else is working, you can just upgrade the temperature/humidity sensor. https://www.davisinstruments.com/products/temperaturehumidity-digital-sensor-board-for-vantage-pro2?variant=39617709736097&country=US&currency=USD&utm_medium=product_sync&utm_source=google&utm_content=sag_organic&utm_campaign=sag_organic&srsltid=AfmBOorparqXUIbseeL_GhV5N17nRIgTP_lbR-ppJqHdstP_M-IQILrfUH0&com_cvv=8fb3d522dc163aeadb66e08cd7450cbbdddc64c6cf2e8891f6d48747c6d56d2c

Snowboard is deployed and ready to go

DCA 5-minute ob is currently 36/1.

I think we all have to be realistic that the super-HRRR runs with a large swath of a foot plus are a bit of a reach. If we are all sitting with a nice 6-10" will some lollis, that is a win.

Yeah, ICON finally came back north a bit.

Feeling good about playing against consensus.

Looks like thundersnow near Topeka.

And yet, it is still 0.5” precip all frozen in DC. I’ll take that as the floor.

Not quite. The JV ICON is still south, not that we will put any weight on that.