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MN Transplant

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Everything posted by MN Transplant

  1. MN Transplant
    Amazing. I didn’t think we’d take down 2012. November really pushed 2024 over the top.
  2. MN Transplant
    Was looking back through my notes and came up with 3/3/2014 as a nice 4-6”er with temps into the teens. Great winter and sorely missed.
  3. MN Transplant
    Few good T&L hits and pouring now. Incoming for DC.
  4. MN Transplant
    The 06z GFS 10/11 storm isn't a classic big dog, but it is a long-duration event with a 500 low closing off near Richmond and prolonging the snow.
  5. MN Transplant
    All of the fans of teams with multiple (or recent) SB titles can sit this one out. It is time for Detroit, Buffalo, or dare I say Minnesota to bring one home.
  6. MN Transplant
    The Atlantic is a mess, but this is 11 days out. The initial vort that goes into TX doesn't even hit the pac NW until Monday!
  7. MN Transplant
    We like the concept of that N stream vort coming to pick up the Gulf low.
  8. MN Transplant
    The GFS at Day 10 looks absolutely nothing like the 12z run. The pattern is too messy.
  9. MN Transplant
    I still have faith in Reichard. The quad injury definitely messed with his rhythm though. Gonna have to pile up points against Detroit’s injured D.
  10. MN Transplant
    Vikings/Lions for the #1 seed in Week 18. Unreal.
  11. MN Transplant
    Snow on snow otherwise we riot
  12. MN Transplant
    That 00z Euro run was wild. Over an inch of QPF falling into a deep cold airmass where the surface temps stay <15 degrees during the day.
  13. MN Transplant
    Already the 5th warmest day in December at home. 55.0
  14. MN Transplant
    I’m still mad about Jan 2011
  15. MN Transplant
    Got clipped by both primary batches. Bet it is coming down well out by Manassas.
  16. MN Transplant
    Turned to ZR after a few minutes
  17. MN Transplant
    Sleet. 28.2
  18. MN Transplant
    I'm still skeptical about many of these pure AI models, and the paper itself isn't a slam dunk, but I did notice something else interesting in there: Historically, t2m has proved extremely challenging to assimilate in a global physics-based weather model, with the ECMWF starting operational assimilation of t2m observations only in November 2024 (Ingleby et al., 2024). This led to significant improvements in short-range t2m forecasts.
  19. MN Transplant
    The biggest “problem” is that there just isn’t much precip with this. Meso models are in the few hundredths range. If we were looking at a big shield of precip coming in I’d agree with you. But it is very likely just some pingers and/or light ZR for a bit.
  20. MN Transplant
    16.3. Good call by the NWS from a few days out to go colder than most guidance.
  21. MN Transplant
    Truly amazing. Now the Packers and Lions to close the season.
  22. MN Transplant
    Eh, I like big dog hunting. I've already completely forgotten about the light/moderate events that happened less than a year ago.
  23. MN Transplant
    I was wondering about that too, and it seemed to be more NW/SE oriented. Probably a combination of a normal temperature gradient and a bit of cloudiness over northern VA.
  24. MN Transplant
    Mesoscale models have a light band of precip coming through in the morning. Surface is residually cold, but the column is a little too warm. So, more of a mix. If it is delayed at all the surface will warm and it'll just be cold rain on the 24th.
  25. MN Transplant
    23.4, didn’t fall much after midnight.
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