MN Transplant

One of my disappointing storms. My first chance at a big east coast storm and then it snizzles all day, snows overnight, and starts melting immediately in the morning. <9" down at my rental near the Pentagon.

LOL. Minus 5.

The crust on top of the snow is going to be amazing by the time Tuesday rolls around. Let's reel the following weekend's storm in and get snow-on-snow.

My estimates of the precip before and after the modeled changeover in DC. Model Model Run Prior QPF Time of flip Post-flip QPF Euro 12z Thursday 0.75" 18z Sun 0.65" GFS 12z Thursday 0.90" 02z-07z Mon 0.52" GDPS 12z Thursday 0.80" 15z Sun 0.84" ICON 12z Thursday 0.70" 16z Sun 0.54" UKMET 12z Thursday 1.05" 22z Sun 0.50" AIFS 12z Thursday 0.62" 15z Sun 0.75" AIGFS 12z Thursday 0.75" 15z Sun 0.70" RDPS 12z Thursday 0.84" 13z Sun 0.62"+ 12k NAM 12z Thursday 0.60" 14z Sun 0.90"+

~0.75" at that point. Seems about right, 7-9" of snow and then an inch or two of sleet on top.

Oh yeah

Yeah, 06z is sleet, but it isn't like we spike way too warm. Like I was talking about yesterday, the 850 low on the GFS is just more diffuse and reforms near or over us.

GFS is more of a two-parter than some of the other models. First comes through cold and all snow. Looks like the 2nd is going to be latitudinally-dependent. 00Z Monday DCA

12z sounding is clean at DCA. Warmest is about -5C

I'm going to post the Correlation Coefficient to annoy @mattie g

Yeah, interesting that it happened again in a year where we had a cold December leading into January.

There is a real chance that many of us get more precipitation as sleet than snow, and that sucks.

Sunday morning 7am per the NAM at DCA

It gets DC to about 1" QPF, all snow. Kuceras are going to be large.

This run doesn't bring the warmth anywhere near us.

We spent days not wanting the GFS solution, now it is our best hope

GFS still with a weak 850 low like this morning. This shouldn't end up like the ICON or even the Euro.

One thing that I'm noticing is that the models with a stronger 850 low in the central US are the ones that are able to drive it up to Cleveland and eventually draw up the warm sector for us at the end of the storm. The GFS does not do that, with a weak 850 low that is eventually replaced by a new low that forms off of Cape May, NJ.

This is what the Euro looks like above ground over DC. 1000mb at the bottom, going up by 50mb to 800mb and then by 100mb. So, there isn’t necessarily any sneaky layer, it is just the 850-700mb level we lose later on in the storm. Via Windy

From above, it looks like almost half of the members have 6" or less.

Not quite as good

While we are waiting for the GFS, here is a nice visualization of the 06z GEFS members for IAD. https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/projects/ncar_ensemble/plumes/

My brother got a faint glow outside of Frederick. Camera visible only.

Went from ~0.06" QPF to ~0.75" around DC from 12z to 18z. Love the GFS.

Be careful with Kucera!