Ahoff

Where's it cutting to?

That's what I saw yesterday too. Major suppression. Hopefully we can pick up some lake snow and clipper stuff in there with those higher ratios. If these big cold shots are supposedly coming, where are the clippers? I thought they often accompanied cold shots?

Can’t make this up, but the weather app from Apple, has the extended forecast for next Wednesday as 31 for a high and thunderstorms, lol . we can’t win. Picture was too big to post.

CPC has strong cold signals for 12/18 and beyond, but...precip signal is suppression. So, looks cold and green. Also, the experimental severe weather risks from the CPC doesn't show any risk of heavy snow anywhere east of the Rockies in a supposedly great period (21st-25th). So, it seems they don't see any real threat at this time.

12z GFS is on some next level sh*t for around Christmas Eve. Obviously too far out to take seriously, but has snow plowing into us then ends as mix, lol, and a massive ice storm before that in the Deep South. Houston drops to 18 degrees. Then a secondary part comes through, as we go above freezing, all while most of Texas is below. Then it drops Lake Charles, LA down to -2! Absolutely wild run, that will probably be totally different on the next one, lol. We get maybe 6-8" out of all that.

At this point, I'd take it. It's something frozen, lol.

Worst thing about the late week storm is the track is nearly perfect for us. If that low tracked all the way up the coast at those positions modeled we'd be blanketed. So, of course when we have a great low placement there's no precip on the back side. Looks like we have to rely on clippers, which can be really nice events. GFS, is liking to dissolve them as they come down though, so there's that, and there's a nice looking possibility at the very end of GFS, but of course that's so far away. Also, the 22-23 storm kind of just went away, for now, lol. Euro cuts the 22nd storm, gets us rain and then immediately bitter cold and no snow. Unreal.

One would think.

Some flurries this morning. Might be the most we see through the weekend, lol. I take this as a sun.

Yeah, we’ve seen enough great looking things past 10 days. We know how most of the end up…

If there were an inch on the ground that's fine. The GFS tries to do something right before Christmas, but that's too far away to expect it to happen.

Cold and green would be disappointing.

Yeah, this pattern change feels super fake, lol.

That 12z GFS looked even worse. But don't worry guys through next Sunday Atlanta gets 2-3". I don't know, maybe we can get some lake snows or something with the cold push after?

Some real sh*tty trends today. Not surprised overall. Hopefully, something better happens with it.

Yeah, looks great, but we're definitely well within the back and forth period. Maybe come a bit more west before those east corrections start though, lol.

I don't want to get my hopes up, but a couple inches is at least possible.

12z GFS tracks the low pretty perfectly for us. The actual precip depiction looks weird, but that can be worked out later. Hopefully, that low placement is pretty close. GFS, Euro and others have had that low very close or just inland of the coast. Maybe they're on to something?

I'm fine with 10" even if east gets more. 10" is a ton for us. I'm not fine with east getting 20" and us getting next to nothing, lol.

12z GFS is more interesting for mid week. Shows colder highs and more snow potential. Something to watch I suppose. Drops 3"+ on Wednesday. Good development, we shall see.

That GFS 0z run was epic. Shows the highest end possibility, although super low chance. Up to 3' by the end. 3 storms in one week. Record cold, below zero temps. At least that's better than literally one run previous. GFS 6z looks more reasonable snow wise for us Through next weekend, but with a storm that powerful the precip shield can't be right, looks way too small. Totals, looked pretty normal I guess. Definitely not as great, but showing potential. Euro, still not looking too great.

The GFS cannot be trusted, lol. From 0" to nearly 20" in one run! Crazy. Through the end of the run if we can manage 5" I'd consider it a success.

But the fact that the entire run has no snow when everything around us does is concerning. I wouldn’t worry about hour 384, it’s every hour leading up that’s concerning, lol.

What the actual f*ck?

Not a great sign when there's been no posts for almost a day.