Ahoff
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Everything posted by Ahoff
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Also, HRRR seems aggressive with temps. -6 (a record low) by tomorrow night, and dipping to -7 Christmas Eve (not a record). With so little snow, I doubt that.
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Hopefully.
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Dropped us to under an inch, lol. I don't think it gets to even 1 degree, which is their forecast without more snow on the ground, and if it does, I couldn't imagine how cold it would have been with a couple inches.
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Wouldn't there be upslope snows? I mean whether the winds come from the southwest or northwest it should run into higher terrain.
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Hopefully, we can get below 0. Would be the first time in December since, what 1989? It will be tough to do, but we’ll be getting close.
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I don't buy that Wheeling would have that much more than us, when the changes would essentially be the same just earlier for Wheeling. Maybe just model noise.
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Looks like just a shift east. Looks like better snow coverage though.
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NWS has us in 1-2".
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NWS won't even give us a wind chill advisory, lol. We'll have 0 degree temps and 50 mph winds, but no advisory, crazy.
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Storm aside, very sad day for Pittsburgh. RIP to Franco Harris. Will be a much different event at the game on Christmas Eve.
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That NAM total looked decent. Still "long range" NAM, but not 84 hours at least.
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If the secondary trends stronger, wouldn't it cause the upper atmosphere to cool quicker for us and allow temps to drop even before the front moves in?
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Well, the risk of heavy snow is not far away, and it doesn't discount the possibility of a brief period of heavy snow as the cold air collapses in. I don't think anyone is expecting a foot of heavy snow. It's just saying the risk is there. We'll still likely see some snow, let's just enjoy that possibility.
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Could be worse. At least a small shift down and we're in, and if not it might not be heavy snow, but it should still be snow.
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Correct, but timing is super important for the freeze.
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I guess there's too much going on, they'd have to write a novel. Obviously once these temperatures drop below freezing it's going to snow. What's weird is TWC has 26 for the Thursday low and NWS has 10. So, that's more of an issue with regard to the flash freeze potential.
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Yeah, I saw this. It's a weird description. Never saw anything like that. Since they didn't saw 'new rain totals' I'm assuming their meaning rain changes to snow.
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No, but it's not ideal. Blanked is nothing on the ground. Still think we can pull out 2"-4", for now. We'll see what the trends do.
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We just have to stay hopeful. I can't imagine we get blanked totally.
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Looks like based on TWC and Accuweather our first totals forecasts will be for 1-3". Hopefully that can increase as we get closer.
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How well do we think the Euro is actually handling total snowfall? It's horrible here, but looking at the wide view Chicago and North Indiana seem to be in a great spot for snow, yet the Euro 6z only dropped around 3-4" on those areas. That just doesn't seem right with a fairly strong storm just off to their east.
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Yeah, that's my benchmark too.
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Also, a pretty significant update for the point and click on the NWS is Friday the high is only 33 now, was in the low 40s yesterday. It's really showing the speeding up of that front.
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Interesting. This would be a forecast I would want to wait on, lol. But this is also a big travel week, so they can't dilly dally too much.
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Yeah, GFS isn't messing around. Still putting out around 10" for us. That is probably high, but the potential must be there. Wonder when NWS will start putting out totals? Probably not until late tomorrow at earliest is my guess.
