Ahoff

Worst thing about the late week storm is the track is nearly perfect for us. If that low tracked all the way up the coast at those positions modeled we'd be blanketed. So, of course when we have a great low placement there's no precip on the back side. Looks like we have to rely on clippers, which can be really nice events. GFS, is liking to dissolve them as they come down though, so there's that, and there's a nice looking possibility at the very end of GFS, but of course that's so far away. Also, the 22-23 storm kind of just went away, for now, lol. Euro cuts the 22nd storm, gets us rain and then immediately bitter cold and no snow. Unreal.

One would think.

Some flurries this morning. Might be the most we see through the weekend, lol. I take this as a sun.

Yeah, we’ve seen enough great looking things past 10 days. We know how most of the end up…

If there were an inch on the ground that's fine. The GFS tries to do something right before Christmas, but that's too far away to expect it to happen.

Cold and green would be disappointing.

Yeah, this pattern change feels super fake, lol.

That 12z GFS looked even worse. But don't worry guys through next Sunday Atlanta gets 2-3". I don't know, maybe we can get some lake snows or something with the cold push after?

Some real sh*tty trends today. Not surprised overall. Hopefully, something better happens with it.

Yeah, looks great, but we're definitely well within the back and forth period. Maybe come a bit more west before those east corrections start though, lol.

I don't want to get my hopes up, but a couple inches is at least possible.

12z GFS tracks the low pretty perfectly for us. The actual precip depiction looks weird, but that can be worked out later. Hopefully, that low placement is pretty close. GFS, Euro and others have had that low very close or just inland of the coast. Maybe they're on to something?

I'm fine with 10" even if east gets more. 10" is a ton for us. I'm not fine with east getting 20" and us getting next to nothing, lol.

12z GFS is more interesting for mid week. Shows colder highs and more snow potential. Something to watch I suppose. Drops 3"+ on Wednesday. Good development, we shall see.

That GFS 0z run was epic. Shows the highest end possibility, although super low chance. Up to 3' by the end. 3 storms in one week. Record cold, below zero temps. At least that's better than literally one run previous. GFS 6z looks more reasonable snow wise for us Through next weekend, but with a storm that powerful the precip shield can't be right, looks way too small. Totals, looked pretty normal I guess. Definitely not as great, but showing potential. Euro, still not looking too great.

The GFS cannot be trusted, lol. From 0" to nearly 20" in one run! Crazy. Through the end of the run if we can manage 5" I'd consider it a success.

But the fact that the entire run has no snow when everything around us does is concerning. I wouldn’t worry about hour 384, it’s every hour leading up that’s concerning, lol.

What the actual f*ck?

Not a great sign when there's been no posts for almost a day.

I think I'm writing off December. The ever promised pattern change almost never happens before the new year, and this year likely isn't any different. If we get a few little accumulations here and there great, and if we actually see the pattern flip better still, but I'm not convinced at this time.

Usually how it goes though. If the second half or even last third can make up for it, then I'll be alright with it.

Let's not go here yet, lol.

I don't understand how people are saying there's a great pattern coming, but literally nothing seems to actually show it? I'd like to be optimistic, but it doesn't look good even after 10 days.

GFS seems to be colder for this weekend's event. Still not what we want to see exactly, but a massive improvement. The after is an absolute cluster. Euro looks like trash. The Canadian is the only thing wanting give us any shot, but that's a front end snow and at the end of the run. These runs look worse than before. All the chatter of a pattern change seems like bull.

GFS is on its own though, correct? Hopefully it truly is on its own island.