Ahoff

Hmm...this isn't over.

What is that suggesting? Would this suggest the system is weaker and could go further East?

Pretty good chance of a white Christmas.

Still, I wouldn't put stock in it. Clearly the forecasts change in the short term. We're literally seeing that right now, so wouldn't get up in arms about it. In fact, I believe a week or so ago this period on those outlooks had warm contours for the east, after being cold and again shifting back to cold. They don't know what's going on tomorrow let alone 2 weeks from now. As is also clear from this phenomenal pattern we've been talking about since early December. It didn't turn out the way we thought.

Lol, they literally just had almost the entire country in blue a few days ago. Did that happen that way? Probably not, so I wouldn't put a ton of stock in that right know.

CMC wants to keep it cold through Wednesday. Even negatives from them.

Isn't UK just for track?

Yeah, 10"-12", we'll take that. And for Tim, GFS shows a low around 3 and a high around 7 on Christmas Eve and 5 and 13 on Christmas Day.

I'd call that 2-4". That 3" line runs close by. Bernie Rayno said the GFS was trending west and thought it was too far west, and said the Euro was trending east. He still thinks there will be east trends, but I think he's moved us out of big snows.

Probably, because snow will be minimal. If we had a good pack you could probably knock those temps down a few degrees. It is still pretty tough to get temps that cold here in December, though, so...it's something.

With as quickly as the cold is supposed to be pouring in, I'd be surprised if it didn't catch up to the precip or out run it for a time.

This seems similar to Christmas Eve/Day 2020. Warm/rain, to snow and cold. That turned out well.

Is this really the exact same kind of system, though? It's a cutter, but this one has arctic air rushing in behind, the last one didn't. If it comes in right we could get some snow.

Yeah, I mean the changeover was always an option. It was consistently modeled when the storm has been west. I still have faith we get a few inches from this. Our ceilings aren’t too high usually anyway. 6” is probably the max now.

00z GFS mean is pushing 6" for Allegheny Co.

Surprise tonight for sure. Someone slid down the hill across from my house hitting a pole and sparks flew. Don't think anyone was hurt and can't tell if anyone lost power, but still pretty icy I guess. Moral is we can get some surprises.

We should know by now December is an uphill battle lately, but not a death knell.

It's Dec. 17, lol. How do you know it won't be an above average season?

Well, doesn’t mean it’s right. Keep the faith, it’s Christmas time.

It really doesn’t take a lot for us to win out. The coast is not getting it like they thought. We have a chance.

It's 5 days before it affects us. Models are not infallible which is clear with the inconsistency they've shown. Believe me I never for a second bought the 30" from the GFS and that's not what I am suggesting in possible moves back east, but to just say only 1" maybe is not certain at all at this time. I'm good with a few inches too, and that looks possible.

GFS still has 3-6" back end. Why don't we wait. it's still 5 days, not 2 away.

Still tons of time for an eastward correction, and not like it needs to correct all the way to the coast.

This is still too far away to say it's over. GFS may have moved west, but other guidance was moving back east. We're in the back and forth phase. Plus, 00z and 06z GFS weren't bad for us. One run isn't the end. Even though the GFS shows 2.1" in Pittsburgh, there are 6" spots all around, that can easily fill in. Even a good couple inches on the backside is enough for us.

GFS mean for 00z was pretty high. Other guidance has trended better. Could this work out nicely?