Ahoff

If the secondary trends stronger, wouldn't it cause the upper atmosphere to cool quicker for us and allow temps to drop even before the front moves in?

Well, the risk of heavy snow is not far away, and it doesn't discount the possibility of a brief period of heavy snow as the cold air collapses in. I don't think anyone is expecting a foot of heavy snow. It's just saying the risk is there. We'll still likely see some snow, let's just enjoy that possibility.

Could be worse. At least a small shift down and we're in, and if not it might not be heavy snow, but it should still be snow.

Correct, but timing is super important for the freeze.

I guess there's too much going on, they'd have to write a novel. Obviously once these temperatures drop below freezing it's going to snow. What's weird is TWC has 26 for the Thursday low and NWS has 10. So, that's more of an issue with regard to the flash freeze potential.

Yeah, I saw this. It's a weird description. Never saw anything like that. Since they didn't saw 'new rain totals' I'm assuming their meaning rain changes to snow.

No, but it's not ideal. Blanked is nothing on the ground. Still think we can pull out 2"-4", for now. We'll see what the trends do.

We just have to stay hopeful. I can't imagine we get blanked totally.

Looks like based on TWC and Accuweather our first totals forecasts will be for 1-3". Hopefully that can increase as we get closer.

How well do we think the Euro is actually handling total snowfall? It's horrible here, but looking at the wide view Chicago and North Indiana seem to be in a great spot for snow, yet the Euro 6z only dropped around 3-4" on those areas. That just doesn't seem right with a fairly strong storm just off to their east.

Yeah, that's my benchmark too.

Also, a pretty significant update for the point and click on the NWS is Friday the high is only 33 now, was in the low 40s yesterday. It's really showing the speeding up of that front.

Interesting. This would be a forecast I would want to wait on, lol. But this is also a big travel week, so they can't dilly dally too much.

Yeah, GFS isn't messing around. Still putting out around 10" for us. That is probably high, but the potential must be there. Wonder when NWS will start putting out totals? Probably not until late tomorrow at earliest is my guess.

Hmm...this isn't over.

What is that suggesting? Would this suggest the system is weaker and could go further East?

Pretty good chance of a white Christmas.

Still, I wouldn't put stock in it. Clearly the forecasts change in the short term. We're literally seeing that right now, so wouldn't get up in arms about it. In fact, I believe a week or so ago this period on those outlooks had warm contours for the east, after being cold and again shifting back to cold. They don't know what's going on tomorrow let alone 2 weeks from now. As is also clear from this phenomenal pattern we've been talking about since early December. It didn't turn out the way we thought.

Lol, they literally just had almost the entire country in blue a few days ago. Did that happen that way? Probably not, so I wouldn't put a ton of stock in that right know.

CMC wants to keep it cold through Wednesday. Even negatives from them.

Isn't UK just for track?

Yeah, 10"-12", we'll take that. And for Tim, GFS shows a low around 3 and a high around 7 on Christmas Eve and 5 and 13 on Christmas Day.

I'd call that 2-4". That 3" line runs close by. Bernie Rayno said the GFS was trending west and thought it was too far west, and said the Euro was trending east. He still thinks there will be east trends, but I think he's moved us out of big snows.

Probably, because snow will be minimal. If we had a good pack you could probably knock those temps down a few degrees. It is still pretty tough to get temps that cold here in December, though, so...it's something.

With as quickly as the cold is supposed to be pouring in, I'd be surprised if it didn't catch up to the precip or out run it for a time.