Ahoff
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Everything posted by Ahoff
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This seems similar to Christmas Eve/Day 2020. Warm/rain, to snow and cold. That turned out well.
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Is this really the exact same kind of system, though? It's a cutter, but this one has arctic air rushing in behind, the last one didn't. If it comes in right we could get some snow.
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Yeah, I mean the changeover was always an option. It was consistently modeled when the storm has been west. I still have faith we get a few inches from this. Our ceilings aren’t too high usually anyway. 6” is probably the max now.
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00z GFS mean is pushing 6" for Allegheny Co.
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Surprise tonight for sure. Someone slid down the hill across from my house hitting a pole and sparks flew. Don't think anyone was hurt and can't tell if anyone lost power, but still pretty icy I guess. Moral is we can get some surprises.
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We should know by now December is an uphill battle lately, but not a death knell.
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It's Dec. 17, lol. How do you know it won't be an above average season?
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Well, doesn’t mean it’s right. Keep the faith, it’s Christmas time.
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It really doesn’t take a lot for us to win out. The coast is not getting it like they thought. We have a chance.
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It's 5 days before it affects us. Models are not infallible which is clear with the inconsistency they've shown. Believe me I never for a second bought the 30" from the GFS and that's not what I am suggesting in possible moves back east, but to just say only 1" maybe is not certain at all at this time. I'm good with a few inches too, and that looks possible.
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GFS still has 3-6" back end. Why don't we wait. it's still 5 days, not 2 away.
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Still tons of time for an eastward correction, and not like it needs to correct all the way to the coast.
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This is still too far away to say it's over. GFS may have moved west, but other guidance was moving back east. We're in the back and forth phase. Plus, 00z and 06z GFS weren't bad for us. One run isn't the end. Even though the GFS shows 2.1" in Pittsburgh, there are 6" spots all around, that can easily fill in. Even a good couple inches on the backside is enough for us.
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GFS mean for 00z was pretty high. Other guidance has trended better. Could this work out nicely?
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Yeah, what's been fairly consistent is the arctic fronts have been dropping around 3-6". It's a less desirable outcome, but at least it's snowing. I'll take it.
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TWC point and click is up to 7”-13”. Most coming Friday. Hopefully, true.
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I just want a couple inches. If that comes from a massive attic front, fine.
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To be fair we'll probably only be bullseyed this one time, so maybe not a big deal this time, lol.
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If you have that power please use it, lol.
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If we could just be hours from the start vs days. Could still see corrections east, as we are still quite a while away. ICON made steps toward the GFS, so maybe they'll all start shifting back east. But, yeah that GFS run could be the the greatest one we see for a long time. Verbatim, biggest storm ever for us.
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A lot going on this week across the country. Peep our area, chance of heavy snow on 12/22, high winds 12/23 with bitter temps. Keeping fingers crossed.
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Where so we see those?
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I know I said I wasn't throwing in the towel, so, not sure who said that? This always sees like the timeframe when the models lose the storm and then some form of 7+ day look comes back around 3-4 days out. Hopefully, that's where we're headed.
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The one they ran for December said it's be below average, and we'll probably at best end up average. Not putting a ton of stock in that right now.
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Not throwing in the towel yet, but if we get rain then bitter and dry after all this hype, it might be the worst let down I've seen yet.
