Mr. Kevin
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Everything posted by Mr. Kevin
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I was very happy to be on the good end of February with very cold and snow. Very rare this far south.
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I like your optimism Carver, but I really truly believe winter is over already other than a few cool days behind a front. Pattern is locked in and we got alot against us in terms of any significant cold. Nothing we can do about it. I will be shocked beyond belief if we get a big shakeup this winter. Sorry to be negative guys
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Hello Ray. Any chance to get the alutian ridge to weaken or shift enough to allow the pna to somewhat go less negative? Or what do we need to happen? Lol. I'm still optimistic we get a few weeks of cold weather east of the rockies
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I still feel a ice/sleet event somewhere close to our area, providing we have enough cold air. Pattern is tough right now for sure, but we got to try to be optimistic.
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The real concern I have is when we loose the -nao and ao, we have ZERO chance at that point and it makes sense. -pna is too negative currently
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Bamwx does a long range video on YouTube but I can't find it. It was posted on southern.wx. If the cold keeps getting delayed, it's not going to happen. No sugar coating it. He mentioned a +eamt event that should push a front through around the first, to me, it's a very transitory front, but with such a negative pna, who knows. I'm not a big fan of laniña btw
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Still got a ways to go if we ever get there
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I was like 450 miles too far nw for that blizzard of 93
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Also griteater if you can keep us updated on Twitter every few days or when you feel something is worth saying I would appreciate it. Hopefully it's good news for cold at least temporary lol.
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Reason I said the mjo rmm charts is because I go to dacula weather mjo and it shows all models with the mjo and some, at least what I noticed have it moving alot more than the euro. Euro is probably right but I wanted to.point that out. Trying to stay optimistic lol
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Griteater, I have a few questions. I read your recent tweets and good analysis. Do u still feel confident we get into a colder regime east of the Rockies at some point in January? It wasnt mentioned in your tweet that I recognized. Also, the rmm charts from the various models have differing solutions for the mjo. I guess my question is do you believe the ecmwf over the other models currently with the mjo?
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I will go out on a limb and say we are due for a major icestorm here. It's been a while. Our biggest ones have been 31-32 range.
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The issue we are running into as you know Carver is the cold keeps getting delayed and not moving forward in time yet. I take a freezing drizzle event and be happy for rest of the winter in all seriousness.
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SW energy ejecting out IF enough cold air is available should cause ice and sleet concerns for some
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That was mentioned on Twitter earlier about inconsistentcy right now
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Not sure where u get your stuff, I'm assuming wxbell. At tropicaltidbits, the gefs was done an HR ago lol. The graphics arent as good as wxbell
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If AN heights in Alaska happens, then game on for sure. If not game off lol. The Pacific is so important in sensible weather. Alutian ridging is the big thorn for sure so far imo
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Webberweather posted the phase 7 mjo chart earlier on southern.wx for January
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Was the 18z gefs ensembles colder than 12z? I usually dont focus on 18z ,especially past 240hrs.
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It may not mean anything, but alot of talk about some kind of warming in the stratosphere on Twitter. Also, john homenuk, also known as earth light on American weather, said a 1059mb high pressure is retrograding into Greenland. Thought I would point that out
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Webberweather posted the -enso phase 7 example of the mjo and it was pretty chilly for January.
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If the cold pattern keeps getting delayed, it probably wont happen imo. May be a winter we have to unfortunately punt and start thinking about next winter. I will hold on into mid January, which is usually my cutoff, but if no changes by then, time to give up imo.
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Hi jomo. That the key imo is the Pacific. If it dont cooperate, we stay warm. If it does, then all bets are off. I feel like the key is the Pacific and the ao. Imo of course
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That alutian ridge is incredibly intense currently. I'm not a big fan of it, but if it can shift somehow, we then may be looking better and I guess the mjo progression if it can happen.
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I notice the ecmwf has the ao going pretty negative and I'm assuming the eps does also but not to the extent as ecmwf op run.
