Prospero

NHS track hasn't changed much over the past couple days, the timing has slowed down. Still a storm near us in Tampa Bay next week. We'll see what is left after it goes over Cuba.

Can't keep up with itself.

Will be something to watch...

This is an odd look, like a crater or volcano:

More: https://insidethemagic.net/2021/07/hurricane-elsa-memes-kc1/ I haven't seen the "Frozen" movies myself. Words to "Let the Storm Rage On" which Elsa sings: Lyrics The snow glows white on the mountain tonight Not a footprint to be seen A kingdom of isolation And it looks like I'm the queen The wind is howling like this swirling storm inside Couldn't keep it in, heaven knows I've tried Don't let them in, don't let them see Be the good girl you always have to be Conceal, don't feel, don't let them know Well, now they know Let it go, let it go Can't hold it back anymore Let it go, let it go Turn away and slam the door I don't care what they're going to say Let the storm rage on The cold never bothered me anyway It's funny how some distance makes everything seem small And the fears that once controlled me can't get to me at all It's time to see what I can do To test the limits and break through No right, no wrong, no rules for me I'm free Let it go, let it go I am one with the wind and sky Let it go, let it go You'll never see me cry Here I stand and here I stay Let the storm rage on My power flurries through the air into the ground My soul is spiraling in frozen fractals all around And one thought crystallizes like an icy blast I'm never going back, the past is in the past Let it go, let it go When I'll rise like the break of dawn Let it go, let it go That perfect girl is gone Here I stand in the light of day Let the storm rage on The cold never bothered me anyway

Yea, the Elsa memes are out there! https://www.hitc.com/en-gb/2021/07/02/storm-elsa-meme/

It does look like it is ramping back up again on IR.

Didn't know I could place an .mp4 video. Elsa looks strange to me...center shifted east? Or the convection is just displaced? CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-meso-meso1-15-22 50Z-20210702_map_-100-.mp4

Hope it totally misses you! AND Surfside of course! The "cones" have been better the last couple years. But last year it seemed west LA and east TX were always in the cones from days out and stayed in them!

There are plenty of potential impacts for Tampa Bay even if Elsa is a weaker storm that is not a direct hit. Tampa Bay is shallow and it doesn't take much wind to pile up the water, as we all know. This model does not seem like a huge threat, but an onshore strong wind for several hours at high tide would create a real problem. No sand bags being filled yet, but I bet if the track does not change much by noon tomorrow people will be lining up to get some bags in Gulfport. EDIT: I spoke too soon: City of Gulfport response/action The City’s Public Works Department continues to prepare drainage systems and facilities ahead of the storm event. Self-service sandbags will be available from 8:00AM to 5:00PM, Saturday and Sunday, July 3 and 4 at the 49th Street Neighborhood Center, 1617 49th Street South. There is 10-bag limit and proof of residency may be required. The City of Gulfport Information Call Center will open for preparedness questions beginning Sunday, July 4 at 8 a.m. Call 727-893-1000. Web updates will be posted online at https://mygulfport.us/hurricane-center.

Thanks! So here we are in the "cone" at the beginning of 4th of July weekend. It would be nice to have the weekend off, but with an important web project due at the end of next week, with some slight risk of power going out, I will do the bulk of the project this weekend "just in case". After Irma, I had to run an extension cord from my car to my laptop on my front porch to make refunds and reschedule guests who were booked on Clearwater Beach condos for my client. The condos were without power for two weeks, their office as well. Cleanup and repairs took a couple weeks longer and one of the buildings was shut down for a couple months for repairs. (And Irma was NOT a direct hit.) My work PC is a super-powerful Dell with two 4K monitors, so working on a laptop was a nightmare for me! But at least I could do it when the rest of team was offline totally. Yea, PTSD, but if nothing else, if we do get Elsa come by, I can enjoy the storm or tend to our home/yard knowing some of my professional work is done. If it misses, I have a couple days without much pressure next week.

Posted last night... Duly noted, guilty as charged. So obviously Elsa is becoming a more serious met discussion where people need to have facts and professional opinions. But for we who have very serious TSOCD and enjoy nothing more than staring at models, sats, stats, reports, while having a beer or two, or few, when can we have a Banter to post and banter our passion (non-offensive), less than professional opinions (guesses, wishes, fantasies), and memories as pure 100% entertainment on current TS subjects we live and breath? In the mean time, I'll try to keep my fingers off the keyboard as much as I can...

It's been a lot of luck for us. Charlie was on track to hit Tampa Bay with a historic storm surge, but cut east at Port Charlotte suddenly only a few hours before we thought it was to hit us. So many people jammed the bridges to escape to go to Orlando for safety and once they arrived exhausted were hit harder than if they stayed here on the beaches. Countless times we've been in the center of the cone two days out, then a shift saves us. Irma was predicted to come right up over our house in Gulfport less than 12 hours before it made landfall south of us. Whew, yet a lot of us we were still without power for weeks after it went straight up the state. But what a relief it did not come up Tampa Bay as full steam ahead! There is no real reason why it misses Tampa Bay as a direct hit, it is luck and how the dice lands. We've had several Tropical Storms go directly over us after being hurricanes, so we are not blocked. Just lucky.

Fake? Were you here?

Even last year, which was a year it seemed all the storms missed us, in late season we lost a tree in our backyard and had two days of clean up. Can't even remember the name, so many storms over so many years. On the morning after when I was starting to make a path in our backyard, I heard a little girl who lives behind our house on the other side of the fence who we have never seen, when she came outside and saw all the debris around said, "WOW Mommy! Whaaaat happened?" LOL

We've been spared direct hits, but I was here for Charlie, Francis, and Jeane, which all took down trees and power, and countless damaging storms since then. Irma was the worst. But in our circle of friends and family, homes and businesses have been destroyed, who knows how much financial loss we have all endured -- almost every year on some level. Last year was an oddity they all missed us. We've been awoken rudely so many times, but yes no direct hits in the Tampa Bay area for a long time. I was a kid with Agnes, the highest storm surge I have ever seen. Wiped out a lot of businesses on the beaches.

We'll take this one in the GOM as the East Coast of FL does not need anything right now during the "search and rescue" which for whatever its worth is still "search and rescue." Later in the in the season, we'll pass and watch the chasers on Miami Beach on our PCs and TVs from our homes on the Gulf. Fair enough?

My Birthday is the 6th. Actually loving the thought of a storm on the way, but also hoping it is nothing but a good ol' fun storm with some cool waves, respectable wind and rain, no power outages. I'll accept some minor yard clean up with typical tree debris which we get every season no matter what. It's a delicate balance. Party? Of course, but please no Matthew or Irma! Irma was over two weeks with no power, a nightmare. Even Hermine's one serious band put a trash oak on our house and knocked out power. TS Debbie was strong and dumped 16 inches of rain on us. That was a bit over the top even for me.

Elsa? "Elsa has the magical ability to create and manipulate ice and snow. She inadvertently sends Arendelle into an eternal winter on the evening of her coronation. Throughout the film, she struggles first with controlling and concealing her abilities and then with liberating herself from her fears of unintentionally harming others, especially her younger sister." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elsa_(Frozen) Reminds me of Prospero a little. Guess Elsa is dabbling in Tropical Storms, maybe tired of snow and ice.

Crackling at the moment.

OK... Toilet paper - check (From COVID panic) Water - check (Leftover from Irma in gallon jugs a little shrunken) Canned food - check (from many years of storms) Batteries - check (Every year, every season) Beer - Time to stock up! (Never enough)

It's been wet in Florida for a few days. That's not good for the rescue effort, but if there are survivors in the rubble some cool rain water can be life saving. A tropical storm or hurricane would be a nightmare, and I wouldn't trust the rest of the condo building to stand up to any strong winds.

OK, I'll be watching and checking models every six hours for the next few days. Great fun! But not so fun that I want to board up windows on my birthday July 6 here in Tampa Bay.