Prospero

5 PM on June 30, I'd say they were on target.

I was playing with this tool and am surprised at how far away from Gulfport some storms were that created real memories. TS Debbie was over 100 miles from Gulfport and we had a significant surge and flooding along with TS winds and 16 inches of rain. We had a band from Hurricane Hermine that took down an oak tree in our yard and was over 150 miles away. Tropical Storm Eta was almost 50 miles away and gave us the highest surge since I have been back in Florida (2003). https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#map=6.83/27.78/-82.73&search=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

Distracted from Elsa a little tonight sitting in my driveway with neighborhood fireworks (and gunshots) going off constantly. Kind of reminded me watching Irma blow up transformers across the horizon, just without the wind and rain. Happy 4th Of July!

Last year it was quite a theme!! LOL

I that an eye I see?? LOL

I will say, over the past few years, with Tampa Bay in and out of cones now and then, I do not remember consistently being in the middle of any cone for a few days solid.

A beach front condo on Clearwater Beach would be the place to be this week, but July has been booked solid for months now with my vacation condo client. That said, any chasers planning to be here need to find a room or condo now as the occupancy rates are the highest for July in many years. You know, the ol' Quarantine Rebound Vacation Booking Effect (QRVBE).

Mt wife is demanding I buy 6 gallons of water even though I am still moving gallons of water from Irma from one closet to the next depending on what space we need at different times. I'd pay you a buck a gallon to take my old ones...

You'll be fine, except paying extra high rates for everything. The week after, even though still Summer Rates, would be less expensive and less crowded. But if you like to party and spend money, PARTY!!

Guantanano Bay: 45 mph wind, 55 mph gust.

Welcome back. Elsa looked horrible all day, in the morning could see the LLC clearly ahead of the convection. Now it is doing "something" in the convection. Elsa is moving slower so waiting to see what is next.

I think I might see the LLC towards the left inside the convection as this clip progresses

Port-au-Prince had some decent wind today and it not really very close to the center (SailFlow graphic chart below the sat).

What makes me a total weather nerd: Been in the five day cone for what feels like 10 days Models of different intensities have been over my house for what feels like over a month I've searched at least 20 pages of Google search results for any historic or interesting "Elsa" names, songs, or characters (Frozen 2 and Born Free are all that come up) Everybody is out partying or being with friends and family on 4th of July eve, and I'm going from sats, models, reports, and this forum over and over and over waiting for anything new My wife is watching TV asking what in the world am I doing. "Adult chat?" "No not at all, Met Storm chat." I wake up at night and grab my phone to see the latest sats, reports, and this forum... Yet I am happy as can be.

To me it looks better now than all day. But it might be an illusion...

There is something called "diurnal convection". The following is a quote from Google search: "Since water has a much greater heat capacity than air aloft, during night the upper atmosphere cools much quicker than the ocean surface. This creates a larger vertical difference in temperature in a given air parcel vs. daytime and thus more favorable conditions for deep convection."

Florida is taking this serious. In all these years I've never seen to much proactive response to a "potential" storm, even with Irma and all the hype (ultimately justified) it didn't seem to produce so much from our local and State government. #2 for Immediate Release, Saturday, July 3, 2021 – 6:00PM GULFPORT RESIDENTS ADVISED TO PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL FLOOD IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM ELSA City continuing to monitor the storm, preparing for possible Tuesday impact Latest Storm/Incident Developments The National Hurricane Center has placed the City of Gulfport in the five-day cone of uncertainty for Elsa, which was downgraded to a Tropical Storm late Saturday morning. Regardless of Elsa’s eventual track, high winds, rain, and flooding or storm surge may affect the residents in low-lying or flood prone areas during the Tuesday, July 6 high tide at 10am. Many areas south of 28th Avenue South in and along the City’s Waterfront and Marina areas could experience the most significant coastal flooding. Residents in low-lying or flood prone areas should make a plan in the event of potential flooding. Boaters: Be prepared. Listen to weather forecasts and plan ahead. Don't wait until a hurricane warning to secure your boat. Haul out your boat or add additional lines during a hurricane or tropical storm watch, which is issued before a warning, 48-hours before the anticipated onset of storm winds. City Response/Action Self-service sandbags are available from 8:00AM to 5:00PM, Sunday July 4 at the 49th Street Neighborhood Center, 1617 49th Street South. There is 10-bag limit and proof of residency may be required. The City of Gulfport Information Call Center will open for preparedness questions on Sunday, July 4 at 8 a.m. Call 727-893-1000 and speak to a City Staff member with preparedness questions. Web updates will be posted online at https://mygulfport.us/hurricane-center. Advice & Information for Residents Make a plan now in case you need to shelter in place of leave your home - locate evacuation zone: www.pinellascounty.org/knowyourzone. Finalize preparedness plans: http://www.pinellascounty.org/emergency/prepareahead.htm. Monitor local news media, National Weather Service, www.pinellascounty.org, Facebook @PinellasCountyNews and Twitter @PinellasCoNews, search hashtag #PCElsa. Register for emergency alerts at http://www.pinellascounty.org/alertpinellas/. Review your disaster plan: Please preregister for special needs shelters by calling the County Information Center at (727) 464-4333. Pre-registration is recommended for those transporting themselves. For those needing transportation assistance, registration is required. Residents only need to register for special needs shelters once per season, so doing it now will help you for the rest of the year. Purchase necessary items to complete survival kit now. Prepare your kit. Be sure to include necessary hygiene supplies and gather important papers. For those going to a shelter, we recommend that you bring face coverings and sanitizer. Review checklist online at www.pinellascounty.org/emergency/prepareahead.htm. Sign up for pet shelters now by visiting www.pinellascounty.org/emergency/petpreparedness.

Hard to see where the LLC is with cloud cover. Is it where the biggest convection burst appears to be? Yea I should know...

For good reason. We won't know anything until it passes Cuba. It could be a bust, or might be something. Looking more like a bust right now. But the fat lady ain't singing yet.

For what's it is worth: Update 7.3.2021 @ 5:00 pm Governor DeSantis issued Executive Order 21-150 regarding Tropical Storm Elsa, expected to make landfall in early next week. This issues a State of Emergency for the following counties: Charlotte, Citrus, Collier, DeSoto, Hardee, Hernando, Hillsborough, Lee, Levy, Manatee, Miami-Dade, Monroe, Pasco, Pinellas and Sarasota. I'll spare you the 12 page executive order, and all the "WHEREAS,..." statements. But I guess being proactive is good. I've read it completely, sounds good, makes sense. I will say this is the first time I received an email with this kind of info during any storm.

This is off-topic for certain. But many of us here in Florida are hoping for some rescue. Historically it has happened in the past. Of course as Sir Francis Bacon wisely said, "Hope is a great breakfast, but a bad dinner."

Eta did bring the highest storm surge I've seen since I've been in Gulfport (2006). But we've had several storms with more damaging winds and TS Debbie takes the cake for rain at 16 inches. It had a respectable storm surge with strong winds as well and was the highest surge until Eta. Nestor was high too. I was in Hillsborough County for Charlie, Frances, and Jeane. All three took down trees and caused a lot of damage and knocked out power, Jeane for a couple weeks where I lived. We had one band from Hurricane Hermine and I was in Clearwater Beach trying to get home to Gulfport. For about 30 minutes I was thinking I was going to be washed off the bridge and swept away into the Inter-coastal Waterway. Driving down Alt 19 the wind was intense and I could barely see. But it passed and I made it home to see a broken oak tree resting on our house. Irma was the worst though. Yet there were several other Tropical Storms that had us on our toes for a while, too many to mention or try to remember without looking at photos or receipts for repairs.

Convection trying to build north of the LLC. That's a better sign than behind it. Will it wrap? Ummm, who knows.

52 mph gust at Barahona this morning. Looks like the weather stations are flaky this morning in the area only getting data sporadically.

I was trying to remember what storm it was late last year that knocked down a tree our backyard and left a debris mess to clean up. I couldn't remember, being an active year. But after looking determined it was Eta on November 11. Eta was a monster for a while, but by the time it made it to Florida it was a Tropical Storm. We had 7 inches of rain, a couple hours of TS winds and gusts to 60 mph. That's not unusual for the Tampa Bay area during storm season, but funny how quickly I forgot the name of the storm. That said, even a little ol' Tropical Storm can disrupt normal every day activities and have some unexpected costs. https://twitter.com/CHawleyFOX13/status/1326685864114655233?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1326685864114655233|twgr^|twcon^s1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.tampabay.com%2Fhurricane%2F2020%2F11%2F11%2Flive-updates-florida-in-path-of-category-1-hurricane-eta%2F