Prospero

It is easy to lose where the center is. This forum has a lot of opinions and of course watching sats we get our own ideas. But when all else fails I refer back to the NOAA. And I look at the cone image where there is an "X" where they say the center is. Sometimes it goes against everything you read here, like last night, or what we think we see, but it is a good solid "back to reality" more often than not. See below, the 5 pm updates: Side note: In my teens we didn't even have the Weather Channel. I can't say we even had radar on the TV news. But next to "Bugs Bunny / Road Runner Hour", the local weather news was my favorite TV event since I was about 5 or 6 years old. "How much snow would we get?" "How much rain?" "Is there a Hurricane coming?" Every day, twice a day; morning and evening, I wanted to be THE weather guy. How exciting! That was my dream. I graduated HS and become a computer techie in 1978. I'm not unhappy with that, but always miss not becoming a met. That was my calling. You are lucky to have so much information and resources at your hands and you already know you could be the next "Jim Cantori" being in the middle of every best storm. (Yea, Jim may not even hold that title anymore...) Good luck, become the best!!

The weather in Florida is volatile as all get out. If a seagull flaps a wing it starts a thunderstorm right now. Whatever is left of Fred will create a powerful ripple of weather across the state.

Was just looking at the 11:00 discussion. I bolded what I found interesting especially as it has been looking so bad. 326 WTNT41 KNHC 131451 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 Fred remains disorganized this morning... Fred is continuing to experience about 20 kt of westerly or southwesterly vertical wind shear, and these conditions should continue for at least another 24 hours. Between that and land interaction, the intensity forecast calls for only modest strengthening during this time. After that, there is still relatively poor agreement on how much shear Fred will experience as it crosses the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with the ECMWF and the UKMET forecasting less shear than the GFS and CMC global models. Due to the uncertainty, the intensity forecast will keep the previous peak intensity of 45 kt. However, the intensity guidance during this period has trended a little higher, and the 45 kt peak is now a little below the upper edge of the guidance. It should be noted that much of the Florida peninsula is expected to be on the east side of Fred, which is where the heaviest rains, strongest winds, and a chance of tornadoes will be.

So at 5 am Fred looks a lot better than this time yesterday, but not as good as when I went to bed last night. Still looks like a Tropical Storm, at least, will be in my backyard in two days so starting to prepare. If it stays on track tomorrow is going to be crazy at every store around Tampa Bay.

Tropical Storm Warning up for the Keys and Florida Bay at 5 am. 000 WTNT31 KNHC 130843 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 ...FRED CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 76.7W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF GREAT EXUMA ISLAND ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward from Bonita Beach to Englewood, Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas * Florida Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, and Granma * The southwest coast of Florida from Englewood south and east to Ocean Reef A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in the Bahamas and elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 76.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight or Saturday. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move along or just north of eastern and central Cuba through tonight, be near the Florida Keys on Saturday, and near the west coast of Florida on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Fred could become a tropical storm again later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).

Storm Banter threads are a good place for many of us who come here for entertainment, but from what I've seen they only come up when something gets serious. We all come for what the mets say, of course. With this site having almost 17,000 members, like it or not, these threads are fun for we who are weather nerds looking for a place to hang out. I know I post too much, but try to add graphics or occasional attempts at serious opinions, etc. But personally enjoy other people's thoughts who are on the same level as myself. Maybe Banter should come up before a storm is a dangerous threat so we who just have fun sharing "banter" are free to entertain ourselves. It is a balance hard for people like me who sometimes (always) get excited about any little weather thing. But then we must ask, what is "normal" anyway. I'm a web developer, wonder if the world needs a Weather Forum for non-mets...

If nothing else, the "cones" over the past couple years have been very good. Below does say a lot:

Helluva spinning convection east of the LLC. So it appears there is energy, just not aligned right now. Tonight will be interesting.

Sorry, but for whatever reason this thread is slow for mets right now. Waiting for Fred to do something I guess... Normally it is not like this when a storm is coming. Be patient.

The Hwy 60 Causeway is always a local news video shot during a storm; waves crashing over the road, etc. I was on Clearwater Beach when the strongest Hurricane Hermine outer band hit from many miles out to sea. My wife here in Gulfport called and told me a tree fell on our house and I was trying to get home. That was likely my most intense "Hurricane drive" ever for me. Getting out of Clearwater Beach in flooded streets and the drive across Hwy 60 with the surf splashing onto the road to the mainland was scary, and even the drive down Alt 19 inland was a wind and rain adventure I'll never forget with many lights out and debris on the road. But by the time I made it home the band passed and the rest of the night was not quite as intense, but still kept my eyes open. BTW, there is a Mellow Mushroom pizza on 60 a few blocks from where you will be working. Love that place.

May I ask? Have you ever experienced a tropical cyclone (Tropical Storm or Hurricane)? If not, even a moderate Tropical Storm will be something you'll never forget. The sustained winds, pounding sideways rain, the surf breaking and blowing over seawalls, palm fronds flying in the air, power going out, etc. For we who live down here in Florida who have homes and businesses that we cannot pack up and run away during a storm, we ride them out. For chasers who are mobile, even the worst hurricanes you can "get out of the way" in a reasonably short notice, even in traffic on bridges. So you should aim to be in the heart and core of whatever Fred might do, and if two or three hours out it looks really bad (cat 3 or 4), head inland or a few miles north or south. You likely won't be in danger unless you are foolish and ignore the obvious. But you won't need to worry about that with Fred, I am confident. Try to be where it will be the worst, get your money's worth on your trip to Florida. No matter what, chances are you will not be in the exact right place. That said, even being anywhere in a tropical cyclone is very impressive. You will "feel" it, these storms have a feel that is unique. The awesome power is not like anything else in the world. Watching clouds overhead move quickly, the wind on your face, the palms bending (which they evolved to do), everything is amazing. Enjoy! Side note on my previous whiny email about not getting rain in Gulfport. We are getting it this time, sideways. Third night of crackling lightning and thunder, a 60 mph gust recorded and mentioned on the local news. (My dad in assisted living a couple miles away just called panicking thinking Fred was here! LOL) Uh oh, power blinking again. Been a few years since we've lost power, and the past three nights our areas has been out. Debris in the yard which is good as it helps to prepare the trees for a storm IF we get one.

You know I always whine about storms "parting" when they come by us in Gulfport. I've lived here for 18 years, there is some kind of natural reason why these storms part over us. Not always, but most of the time. See radar image below, yet another line of storms parting over Gulfport. We may still get hit, sometimes we do. But usually we see rain a few blocks to the south and a few blocks to the north. We do get the lightning and wind which is exciting, but wish we got all that rain too!

As a "storm chaser", I doubt you have anything to worry about. In fact, you will be scrambling to find the very best and most intense affects you can find. You've watched the Weather Channel, right? If this keeps tracking west, you might want to head to LA... Personally, I wish I was chasing tornadoes in the Midwest myself.

And you could have a two day adventure. South Florida Saturday morning, then after it passes head north to Pinellas County for a Sunday morning chase. Our beaches start on the south at Pass-a-Grille which is a cool place to watch a storm. It is low elevation so gets some flooding, lots of beautiful palm trees that sway in the wind, and plenty of good beach access. Then north there is St Pete Beach, Treasure Island, Indian Rocks Beach and Indian Shores, Redington Beach, and of course Clearwater Beach. If it is a Tropical Storm right here in Gulfport is a great place. We are not on the Gulf of Mexico, we are on Boca Ciega Bay. Our cool little downtown gets flooded with every storm and it is a popular place for local news to visit during storms just because it always looks worse here than anywhere else. If you think you might come up here for the Sunday morning chase, you might check out rooms and there are plenty with beautiful beachfront views. You'll find great food all up and down the beaches, even during Tropical Storms. Sometimes my wife and I stay at Island Inn on Treasure Island. It is inexpensive, has great Gulf views, comfortable, clean, and would be a perfect basecamp to travel up and down the beach looking for best storm shots. And its a 15 minute hop to Gulfport to see flooding at high tide. Island Inn - Treasure Island Good luck!

Stay up on warnings and evacuation orders: "If an evacuation is ordered, there will be a steady stream of traffic leaving the Keys. If you travel to the Keys, you will be required to leave. Furthermore, most, if not all visitor facilities will not be open, as their owners make hurricane preparations. Buildings will be shuttered. Boats will be secured in protective moorings. State and county parks will close. So even though in the early stages of an evacuation, visitors may be able to reach the Keys, they will not enjoy the traditional benefits of a Keys vacation. It’s best to reschedule travel plans to visit after the potential danger has passed." Have a backup plan on where you might want to go. Of course, if there is no storm or evacuation, enjoy the Keys!!

They slowed down the timeline a little. If anything comes of Fred we'll likely be experiencing in daylight hours which is a treat for a change. Seems like the last few storms around here have been in the middle of the night. If Fred becomes a substantial storm, it might be hard to get to the keys if they close traffic to visitors. You could always drive up here to Pinellas County and give Fred another day to strengthen. We have lots of beach areas.

However, where the latest NOAA track shows it is a ways west of what I am looking at (red arrow) where there is small blob of convection firing up on sats.

I'm going back to the idea that the large beautiful swirl we are looking at is NOT Fred's LLC and that it is where the NOAA says it is south of Inagua. I can see it, very small, not impressive but will be watching it. The large swirl may just blow away doing nothing.

Sure looks like it. If it is, it looks fairly well defined as well.

With the visible starting to show it is easier to locate. Doesn't look like much.

Yea, I figure I am too far to east, but can see a spin there. NOAA has it just off the tip of Haiti south of the Inagua Islands:

Fred's not dead. Maybe beat up a little. One can make out a little circulation on the IR animation. It may not be directly over the LLC though.

Perfect for now. Bedtime, getting up at 4 am. My wife is a teacher and I get up with her. I'll wake up around midnight and grab my phone to see the latest NOAA advisory and see what happens here. I'm not expecting anything much until tomorrow afternoon...if even then. But hey, you never know what Fred might do. "Yabba-Dabba-Doo!"

OK, a rerun due to popular demand... What will this one do over the mountains??

Especially if the center is more on the north side of Hispaniola which it might be. Part of my frame of reference is when a low fed by monsoon or Gulf moisture hits southwest Colorado and snow piles up very deep on the front range fairly far away from the center of the low. So the convection on the southern side of this island's mountains to me could be just the pile up of moisture and energy being squeezed out by the elevation while the center is on the other side of the mountains. I AM NOT A MET (disclaimer)