Prospero

Elsa and Fred, sitting in a tree...

SailFlow is where I look. There was a 50 mph gust at Alligator Reef Lighthouse a few miles from there around 15 minutes later that I posted earlier. I'm sure it was a line of thunderstorms that passed over the eastern keys in an outer band. I would suspect a waterspout made this spike, but it appears the 60 mph winds lasted about 15 minutes or so which is more in line with a severe thunderstorm.

I just noticed this wind gust of 74 mph at 6:20 this morning at Conch Key. As far as I know this is the highest recorded wind so far in the US from Fred. But I have not looked much yet. If we get only one gust like that in Gulfport, FL we'll still have some issues...

We just ran out to St Pete Beach to get an omelette at the best breakfast place in Pinellas County, "The Frog Pond," just in case Fred does some kind of wild RI and makes a hard unexpected right turn towards the coast like Charlie did at the last moment and destroys all our favorite beach places as a Cat 3. You know, "just in case." The weather is very nice right now, cool and cloudy with a nice steady off-shore breeze. The sky is very dark over the Gulf. Image below from Clearwater Beach.

50 mph gust at Alligator Reef Lighthouse which is pretty far east of Fred right now. So as it regains its TS status we'll see more of these pop up.

Fred looks better this morning. Yesterday was a relatively cool quiet cloudy day around weather wise. This morning we can feel a decent breeze from Fred and there is that "feel" of a Tropical system. If I were a little kid I would say we feel the "big air" moving. I don't have any plans to secure anything except move a few potted plants to the ground and put away anything that can fly around with bigger breezes. It does look like we could be scraped by the edge of some bands later with rain and some wind, although probably not TS strength. That is still fun enough for me. Looks like the cone inched back east a little bit overnight.

040 WTNT41 KNHC 142039 TCDAT1 Remnants Of Fred Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 Satellite imagery this afternoon shows that a broad and elongated circulation has formed in association with the remnants of Fred, and that the convection has become more concentrated at the east end of the elongated center. However, neither the circulation nor the convection are organized enough to justify calling the system a tropical cyclone at this time. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to survey the remnants of Fred this evening to see how far the re-development has progressed. The initial motion is a still very uncertain 300/11. The system is expected to move northwestward around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge, with a turn toward the north expected as the system nears and moves inland along the northern Gulf coast in 48-60 h. The forecast guidance remains in good agreement on this general scenario and the new NHC forecast track is close the the consensus models. However, some adjustments to the track forecast could occur depending on where the center of Fred re-forms. Therefore, users should not concentrate on the details of the forecast track, which could change quite a bit during the next day or so. The global models are now in better agreement that the upper-level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico that has been hindering the development of Fred will move northward and weaken during the next 24 h. They also indicate that Fred is likely to re-form a well-defined closed circulation over the eastern Gulf of Mexico Sunday morning. Thus, the intensity forecast now calls for Fred to regain tropical cyclone status in about 12 h, followed by gradual strengthening until landfall in a less than ideal upper-level wind environment. After landfall, the system should weaken and dissipate between 96-120 h. The new NHC intensity forecast follows the overall trend of the intensity guidance. Although no coastal watches or warnings are currently in effect, the National Hurricane Center will continue 6-hourly advisories on the remnants of Fred in anticipation of re-development. Watches could be required for portions of the northern Gulf coast tonight, and warnings may be required on Sunday. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Today through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new and renewed river flooding across southern Florida, the Big Bend, and Panhandle. From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. 2. Fred is forecast to regenerate as a tropical cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico tonight or on Sunday, and bring a risk of tropical storm conditions to portions of the northern Gulf coast, especially from coastal Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday. Watches may be required for a portion of this area tonight, and warnings may be required on Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 24.0N 84.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...DISTURBANCE 12H 15/0600Z 25.0N 85.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 15/1800Z 26.6N 87.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 28.0N 87.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 29.4N 88.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 30.9N 88.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 17/1800Z 32.4N 88.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/1800Z 36.0N 87.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Smith Shoal Lighthouse is approaching TS conditions. The pressure is slightly lower than what NOAA has for Fred at 1012MB.

Or according to the NOAA at 8 am it is right about here:

If there is one we might see it on radar. Probably not, but there could be a slightest hint at some circulation. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-S_Florida-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=data

11:00 pm: WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning for the Middle and Upper Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge to Ocean Reef has been discontinued, including Florida Bay. The Tropical Storm Watch along the west coast of Florida has been discontinued. Discussion excerpt: Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 Interaction with land and southwesterly shear has continued to take a toll on Fred this evening. It is very difficult to determine in infrared satellite imagery and recent surface observations from Cuba if a closed circulation still exists, however the system is maintained as a tropical depression for now. Scatterometer data, which should arrive very soon, and reconnaissance aircraft observations on Saturday morning should provide additional information on the system's intensity and structure. The system still appears to be moving moving westward or 280/11 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory. The cyclone is approaching the western periphery of a subtropical ridge extending over the western Atlantic, and Fred should turn west-northwestward overnight, and then northwestward on Saturday. The track guidance has again shifted westward, but the shift is not as large as was noted on the previous cycle. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the left, closer to the consensus aids, but it still remains to the east of those models. Some additional westward adjustments in subsequent forecasts may be required. As mentioned above, land interaction and southwesterly vertical will limit any attempt of re-organization overnight, however the system is expected to move off the northern coast of Cuba Saturday morning and the global model guidance suggests that a center re-formation could occur over the western portion of the Straits of Florida. The center re-formation shown by the guidance appears to be aided by an area of upper-level diffluent flow to the southeast of an upper-level trough currently located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Although only a little strengthening is indicated in the official forecast through 36 hours, the environment could become a little more conducive on Sunday, and the NHC wind speed forecast again calls for gradual strengthening while Fred moves northwestward over the eastern Gulf. The updated intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory and is a blend of the statistical guidance and the HCCA model. The intensity forecast continues to be of lower-than-normal confidence given the current disorganized structure of the system.

Every night this week my wife asks me, the resident house met, "Well, what's it going to do?" Tuesday night: "We'll know in the morning. Some say a hurricane, others say it is dead." Wednesday night: "We'll know in the morning. Some say a hurricane, others say it is dead." Last night: "We'll know in the morning. Some say a hurricane, others say it is dead." Tonight: "We'll know in the morning. Some say a hurricane, others say it is dead."

I never liked the idea of a "Fred" anyway. A "Freida", sure. But Fred?? "I survived Hurricane Fred." I don't like it. Yabba dabba do? Sorry, it is my age and what I grew up watching.

I don't think that is in question, at least for me. No outer bands of Fred here. Maybe it is about the heat, humidity, and other factors over Florida being enhanced by the remains of Fred as it moves more towards Florida. Given what is happening with formula number one (thunderstorms already packing a respectable punch), and formula number two (Fred's whatever will be left and it's tail following along), Florida is in for a few likely scenarios including a TON of hard pounding rain with possible inches at a time and some significant winds where we are already seeing near hurricane strength gusts on a daily basis. A Cat (?) hurricane from Fred, we'll leave that to the turtle maybe, but will we who live here in Florida experience a "Fred"? I do think so. Just timing maybe. If it does become a Tropical Storm which the NOAA still suggests, Fred might have quite an impact. Not only here but in other states as well.

The winds and rain we've had here over a few days combined would be what we'd expect from a Tropical Storm. In fact, I've done more cleanup in my yard today than with Hurricane Elsa which passed by just a few miles off the coast of here. Plus several hours of losing power which we only had a few minutes during Elsa, and zero outage with Eta.

All that giant convection we've seen trail behind and follow Fred to the east and south for days may possibly follow what's left of Fred into Florida and GA, SC, NC, etc. Maybe it is a day or two behind, or three days even, yet we can see what we see. It has been more exciting and interesting to a lot of us deceiving and tricking us into thinking a new Fred was forming. Even if Fred dies, all that is behind it could be memorable for we who live in Florida. Or everything might fizzle and be a bust...

In all seriousness, I haven't seen lightning like the past few days here in a couple years or more. Maybe several years. I love lightning and stay up all night waiting to watch any and have been doing so my entire life. This week there is a "charge" in the ground and it is releasing intensely. Impressive. Does it have anything to with what Fred might do, or might not do. Beats me. But I will say there is something going on meteorologically on this little peninsula, maybe easily explained by mets who know more than me.

8 PM NOAA Public Advisory: "Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected <******>. After that, slow strengthening is forecast, and Fred could become a tropical storm again on <*********>." "The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches)" Have we not seen this repeated for about 72 hours?

I'll try to do my part.

Take notes.

I'd also recommend a live streaming IP cam on battery backup that we can watch live. I set them up as a side gig and can walk you through the process. Here is one I do for a client that during storms has tens of thousands of visitors every passing storm: https://beachresortcondos.com/clearwater-beach-live-webcam.html My front yard cam which is mostly for security (local police visit me regularly asking for clips for whatever reason): http://007computer.com/camera-1.html Few hundred bucks to set up an HD IP cam for the web, and streaming is less than you'd think with as many visitors you would imagine. My weather station cam: http://007computer.com/camera-4.html I have a few in my backyard recording weather and critters, etc. 24/7/365, that are not public, well because we don't always have clothes on. Fortunate to have a very private backyard jungle.

This IS banter until it gets serious. Party!! Friday night, not interested in anything else, "Fred is Dead", but Fred is NOT dead yet! Weenies, wish-casters, kooks, nutcases, jump in while you can. It's likely soon the real mets will finish dinner and jump in. Unless they all gave up on Fred. LOL If it does get serious, some moderator create a Banter Thread for we who are obsessing on a weekend of "something" in our yards, whatever it may be.

One of my amateur met tools is how our backyard wildlife behavior changes when something is happening. Obviously not a scientific gauge, but for thousands of years humans have watched the critters and follow their lead. Even with earthquakes horses and cattle get restless when we humans are oblivious of what is about to happen. I filled my bird feeders two days ago, ten pounds of seeds. Baby bird season is mostly over, so that lasts a week or so normally. This time of year sometimes with the rain I end up dumping 20% or so as it gets wet and spoils. As of this morning the feeders were 85 to 90% full, as normal. Right now dozens of sparrows, all of our 8 or so bluejays, doves galore, our yard cardinals, and even a flock of local Nandy parrots have wiped out the remaining food in a few hours. Plus cleaning up all the spilled seeds on the ground like they are starving. Hmmm, what do they know? What do they "feel"? If I were the Shaman for a small tribe of family and friends, I'd be telling everyone to stock up on fresh water and food, and secure the tepees or structures.

Based on where the NOAA says the LLC is located over Cuba, I'd say it looks better than when over the water. Less shear over land? The heat and energy over Cuba (like Florida right now) pumping it up? I don't know. But if this stays tough and moves back over warm waters it has potential. Right?

Even if it is not a full-blown Tropical Storm and is a ways off-shore, its influence will add a big steroid dose to what is already been happening on the west coast of the Florida peninsula. Our "typical" August thunderstorms have blown the last couple years away already. At least what we are seeing where I live; crazy lightning and thunder, wind gusts near hurricane strength, power outages which have been far and few between since Duke Energy rebuild our power grid after Irma, and the raw "feel" of something different. Exciting actually. A weak Fred depression or passing wave might out-perform even a respected Cat 1 that passes by in the Gulf this weekend. I'm not putting up plywood on my windows, but will be securing our projectile rich backyard tomorrow watching the radar to hopefully not be scrambling in the rain to batten down the hatches.