Prospero

Just for fun, how far do you think we'll get in August? I say Ida (EYE-duh) is in September and being an "I (eye)" storm will be the one to watch this season. So for me, Henri will be the last August storm and I am not real confident we'll get that in the next month. I may be very wrong of course. I don't even know if I want to watch a "Hurricane Sam", unless it hits Wyoming...

Will we see Fred in August? Will we see Teresa at all? Teresa is my mother-in-law's name. Maybe around Thanksgiving if things really pick up. LOL In the mean time, nice on Clearwater Beach for the next few weeks...

So that is the recent change, right? But are the surface temps cooler than normal?

Not that I am chomping at the bit, but I am chomping at the bit. Yea I know, so inappropriate, so irresponsible, so reckless and careless, but I can't help it. I am storm sick. Still think a very late season with few names, but strong ones that do get there. I have outdoor tickets for Dead & Company and Rolling Stones in Tampa in October which normally would be a cool quiet weather time for outdoor shows. Hoping no Tropical systems on those dates...really looking forward to both shows.

Katrina was a monster 5 over the Gulf and then the eye mysteriously kept falling apart as it approached landfall. Just like all the storms off Texas last year that we all expected a perfect eye and they kept falling apart every few hours. Yea, some random dry air, other unforeseen circumstances. But Katrina is the one I first remember with a "weird acting eye" and it was a scary monster and still ended up a monster...

Look a convection burst! (OK, bed time for me, I get up early as hell. But I'll look when I get up!)

Rain please? ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Earlier this afternoon and evening, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the low pressure system off the east coast of Florida and found a well-defined center of circulation about 185 miles east of Cape Canaveral. However, the system still lacks organized shower and thunderstorm activity near its center and therefore has not met the criteria to be designated as a tropical depression. Environmental conditions are expected to remain marginally conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression could still form overnight or on Sunday while the low moves generally westward at 5 to 10 mph toward the east coast of Florida. Interests in Florida should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Sunday morning, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Forecaster Berg/Blake

What?? This is 2021!! Did Elsa ever have convention all the way over it?? OK, seriously a "small pressure drop" if enough to keep me obsessing...

Forgive me for "Storm OCD", but seeing a LLC on visible is exciting. Can actually see the circulation even though everything is far away. Better than watching a mid or upper level convection burst that is exciting as well, but "misplaced". Waiting to find out what they find. Yea, so many potentials that die, but come on, it's been BORING for a while and we could use some rain here.

Didn't you know, "Meh" is the 2021 theme? That is almost a requirement so far for a storm to develop. LOL

As a programmer, Excel is an amazing application. I get paid for esoteric stuff very few people can do, but it is interesting to me how much time I spend in Excel doing what the people who pay me could do if they knew how. Export whatever data you see in a .CSV file, and Google how to manipulate it in Excel.

Seen worse looking systems this year with actual names...

Something to keep an eye on for the next few days.

Hmm, I didn't think to be looking here for future development...

The weather started getting rough, The tiny ship was tossed, If not for the courage of the fearless crew The minnow would be lost, the minnow would be lost.

Just named a baby thunderstorm here over Gulfport FL. Not much, barely rained with some nice gentle thunder, but worthy of a name. Cooled down the temps by 10 to 15 degrees which is very nice this time of year. "071721GulfportFL1800" I think I'll retire that name, it earned it...

Nothing to see as far as GFS model through July. Wide open nothingness as far as a storm. That's good, but not very entertaining... I know the potential is there for later on. But for now, pretty slow.

Guess we are looking at August. And maybe mid to late August?

It is just a matter of time. And most of us are getting complacent when it comes to prep. Elsa coulda' been worse for sure, but who put up plywood on their windows? We also have canvas that has not been up since Irma. Will say one piece of plywood on a long tall north facing bathroom window was damaged by a big tree branch with Irma and it saved the window. Whew.

Well, winter storms get names now. Why not name cool upper level lows? I wouldn't be surprised if heat waves will get names by the end of the year. Might as well name thunderstorms... I guess I already do sometimes with religious names, like "Jesus!", "Good God!!", and "Holy S**t!!"

That video is better than anything I remember from Elsa!

Hey, this looks like a 2021 Hurricane!!

Watching that power line dance is a good reminder that it doesn't take a tree or big tree branch to cut off power. It was a couple hours after Elsa passed here that our strongest winds and heaviest rain happened. I was asleep and missed it, but saw the records and stats. Maybe I should have gone to bed early and then woke up after it passed... Of course here on the coast onshore winds typically have bigger impacts than offshore winds even in a hurricane.

I'd say there must be many more, but have no data on hand. I remember Agnes very well in St Petersburg, FL. But the floods up north (VA, PA, etc.) were while it was still on land. Don't even remember a second landfall even though a historic storm.

Here is one in the Tampa Bay area: