Prospero

Yes, we get storms. But sometimes they have qualities that are a little different. I guess you have to be obsessed like me to notice, and I can say in my backyard the last two nights I've watched more intense lightning than the past two years at least, maybe conbined. Last year was a lightning dud at our house. The "thunderstorm" season came and went very disappointing to me. At risk of being kicked off for off-topic, when/if Fred fires up I am ready to post my dribble on a Fred Banter thread. As always...

Here's a graphic I just made for myself, not being totally educated on the mountains of the island. The convection is in the valley. But one lesson over and over, and over again the past couple years I have been here is that convection is not always where the center of the storm is. Deceptive way too often. At this moment I am catching up for the day, yet trying not to fall into the "convection burst" excitement I have typically enjoyed too much. Even seeing an "eye" that seems to want to appear. But the graphic shows the terrain and where the current IR overlays.

OK, can anyone tell us which arrow is closer the whatever is the center?

We are in our second evening of the same. At least this time we are getting rain here in Gulfport. Last night, which is typical for whatever reason, the storms part and it rains north and south of us. So last night with the most intense lighting storm in a couple years or so, very intense, the strikes were hitting dry targets so instead of the electricity running on the wet outside of whatever they hit they went right through the center blowing up whatever it is they hit. Thus our area was without power for several hours (near 20K homes very quickly). I was standing outside watching. Scary! Saw the fat bolt that kicked off our power. It hit a block or two away and the thunder was simultaneous. Made me jump, could smell ozone. The neighborhood went silent, so no more humming, buzzing, nothing. Thunder and sirens were the only sounds for an hour. It did finally rain lightly after the storms drifted off the coast, 0.15 an inch. Yes, there is energy built up, and the Gulf of Mexico needs to release some tension as well. Will Fred be the one? Who knows. Will it even be this year? Who knows. But the energy is there and needs a release.

Well, not sure I am in the "rest of you", but being a newbie on the internet at times since 1995 or so on countless forums, and on this storm forum for over two years, I believe (paying some $$$ dues as well), I might be. If not, at least I am a very passionate outside the rest of you who might be a dumbass at times, but having as much or more fun than anyone. I was on the road all day which is fine. I knew Fred was inching its way over the island so didn't worry about missing too much. It would have been a tedious day to wait for every new sat image to appear, and even though checking here on my phone, not much has changed since early this morning. In fact, likely a long night ahead too without any startling new developments. I will wake up in the middle of the night and check though, of course. That said, it is exciting in its own way to see if Fred survives the hike over these mountains. Are many of us NOT sitting on the edges of our seats waiting? Can't wait for morning to see what happens!! I don't recall any storm being destroyed on this trek over Hispaniola since I joined AmericaWX in the 2019 season. Anyone remember differently?

Don't jinx us!

Starting to figure some preparations into my schedule. Maybe even a little shopping today. Reminds me a bit of Elsa, at least in relation to Tampa Bay (July 4 at 5PM): Elsa was a "Hurricane" when it passed very near us on July 6 yet it was not much of a storm here. Seriously, a substantial Tropical Storm in the same place would be much more of a concern, and Fred might be setting up for that if it survives the mountains. (Just scanned the Elsa forum and it is funny how similar all these storms forums become! LOL)

Power is out here due to lightning, best lightning storm all season. So we have a taste of what can happen during tropical systems. Half hour and already stuffy and warm inside! Good thing for tablets and smart phones can still follow discussions. Lol Duke Energy says back on by 12:30 am.

MIke Clay on BayNews9 said there are three centers right now, still a wave.

Did they fly into the storm today? Thought it was mentioned.

Best of the year even early in its life. Trying to upload a clip but keep getting this: Sorry, an unknown server error occurred when uploading this file. (Error code: -200) So here is a link: http://007computer.com/storms/CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-meso-meso1-truecolor-17-45Z-20210810_map_-87-4n-6-100c.gif

Thanks! Several models have something near or over us around the 15th. We'll be watching of course, and the 15th is a Sunday so better for any preparations if needed.

This year takes the cake on that one, even ragged presentation. But 2019 had its share too. "I think I see an eye" has been almost a joke around here for quite a while.

I remember well. Good thing they typically didn't develop perfect eyes and reach what some of us expected on those paths. There were some good conditions at times.

Central West coast of Florida could use a good solid rain event and even some moderate TS winds to blow out a few cobwebs and stir up the ocean a bit to help get rid of the red tide. Time to watch and pay attention for us. What we don't need is a Hurricane on any level...

Seems to me the past few years more often than not storms survive even after going over the highest terrain. Might be my memory only remembering ones that do survive, but I do remember watching many survive where everyone thought they'd be destroyed. And then some appear to get angry and really fire up...

Been waking up and watching. We need the rain in Gulfport, FL. This time of year we take all we can get, because it starts to really dry up up soon.

At this point I would be very happy watching intense storms way out in the Atlantic that curve away from the US. Give me a perfect eye major to watch spin over the ocean and I am good. Let them all stay out there. We'll still enjoy the beautiful rolling waves as they hit our shores from far away.

We are entering new territory as far as weather. Everything we know and have learned so far might be wrong for now on. Good for some places, bad for others. Yea, I know, let me have it. I'll have another beer and go to sleep for another break before Hell may or may not break loose...

I will look into it. Thanks!! I've looked at generators for many years. But one thing that held me back was the age of the gasoline. I have a weed-eater I bought and put gas in and also a gas container that has been sitting for almost tens years. I have great landscapers who do what I ask, and the weed-eater only got used one time. I remember the manual saying to keep the gas fresh and never leave old gas in a gas container. So having a generator that might get used every few years had me concerned. Maybe I have over thought it, but definitely a thought. Yet a $150 device I can hook up to my car and a cheap small fridge would keep my wife's insulin cool and maybe a six pack as well. Plus some cheese and half-n-half. Even so, after a few days of no power we are seeking an air-conditioned room somewhere. But seriously, sleeping with a cpap, I'd hook up and get some sleep for a few hours in my car if I need to even with just a night outage after a wild thunderstorm! Making sure carbon-monoxide is not a danger of course.

I just took step ONE in preparing for the season: I cleaned out the door in our freezer and one shelf (filled a kitchen trash can). With Irma we lost everything in the freezer and fridge and when the power came back two weeks later our old refrigerator was sparkling clean like brand new. We had plenty of time to clean it thoroughly. It was the last time we thoroughly cleaned it (2017). I tossed everything today from 2018 and 2019. No matter what it was, if we haven't thawed and eaten it by now, we never will. I did NOT mention what I did to my wife, of course, but she'll never miss anything of it at all. "What happened to the frozen Salmon we bought from Sam's Club a few years ago?" "Hmm baby, I don't know. Maybe we ate it?" What is important is having space to stock ice or freeze blue-ice packs in the last buying moments as a storm approaches when it is still available for my beer and our half-n-half for coffee. People say we need a generator. Good idea. But we can last two days without power. It's when it is like a week or so it gets really bad. During Irma we had neighbors who had lights and kept their food safe. But by the third night or so our neighborhood was dark and dead silent at night as they all ran out of gas. Charging our phones and laptops from our vehicles was the saving technology. And we could still hunt down and buy gas in Pinellas County after Irma, luckily. Plus it was nice to sit in our vehicles with blowing A/C when it was brutal hot in our homes and listen to music. But ice was nowhere to be found, even frozen food was sold out in any open grocery store as people were trying to use it to keep whatever they had left cool. Mostly beer I imagine. Since 2003 when I moved back to Florida I've experienced maybe a full month with no power; Hurricane Jeanne was a week, Irma two weeks, other passing storms and typical severe thunderstorms are definitely a week combined. Always a pain, but being prepared for 24 to 48 hours is easy enough and is worth while. Longer than that is getting to point of finding a place to stay until the power comes back on. "Home camping" in the heat and humidity of Florida gets very old quick. UGH

I am bit more concerned with October right now...

Oh boy! Something to watch!

Every year I watch and watch. Even slow years. I have my doubts about this year and have since Spring. Watching, always. Low numbers, late season, and intense when it does happen. Hopefully all off the coasts fun to watch with perfect eyes and not too much stress on we who live on the coasts. Of course, that is NOT based on anything scientific at all. So possibly very wrong indeed. I'm going back to sleep as I may need it later!

OK, I'll try. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz....